NFL- Sunday, wk 1 plays-- J-e-t-s

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2007 posted on ctg:

ATS 28-19 , +26100
ML dogs 4-2, +14400
Teasers 2-7, -6800
ML favs 1-1, +300
Totals 5-8,-4450
HT wager 16-7, +18,500
Props 0-1, , -1600

2007 Overall NFL 56-45, +46,350

2008, 1-1, $-200


__________________________________________________

Locked the first one in :

Jets-2.5, -120; Top unit (6) WIN

add:

Bills -1.5, -110; 2 units WIN

Ariz -2.5, -110; 3 units WIN

Bears +10.5, -120, 2 units WIN

Bears/Indy over 21 2H -110; 4 units PUSH




I'll write this one up in the morning, but lets just say this-- I am having a hard time finding a single win in Miami's schedule. Looks like alot of respected cappers on the fins, which is interesting. I don't see it at all but I could be wrong..:popcorn:

Rest of my plays will come from this list (with a possible add or two after coffee in the morning):

Stl over 44
Stl +8.5
MInn +2.5
Ariz and over

Good day to just watch IMO but that is not what we do:cheers:
 
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i like your thinking tee-dub

:smiley_acbe:

BOL on em, also took them but just for a unit.... something is very fishy with this line
 
Tough game for me Tee.

One thing we know is Brett Favre is a WINNER . Another thing we know is Brett could try and do to much early in the season to prove his worth to the Jets fan base but also a fuck you to the GB organization.

Issues with Jets ?
1- The offense didnt do much even with Favre in there . Jones had only like 12 carries all preseason and Chatman who impressed at times failed a drug test and was cut. Coles did not play one snap in the preseason which means chemistry with Favre iffy ? Lets not forget catching a Favre pass can be tricky with his velocity . Not to mention the fact he ran 2 or 3 quarters with his new teammates and offense.

2- Last 2 seasons all but 1 game was decided by 3 points bewteen them.

3- Justin Miller is probably out putting a rookie corner on Ginn . Which is interesting in the sense his speed could fucking kill but Pennington cant exactly throw a deep ball...

4- Chad Pennington vs the Jets

5- Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams keeping the ball away fromNYJ.

Think pts will be at a premium here all game. Phins defense was solid in preseason and like Jets acquistion of Kris Jenkins...

Jets are 8-1-1 ATS L10 games and 24-5-1 L30 ....Miami 5-21-2ATS vs the East and 10-27-1 ATS L38 at home

BOL ...guess my lean is to the under and thinking of a reason to play MIAMI not sure what to make of the Jets here...:cheers:
 
BOL, TD

yeah, can't see the jets losing in brett's 1st game. not on it myself, nor do i necessarily trust it...but it's the right side heading into the game.

:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
__________________________________________________

Locked the first one in :

J-e-t-s -2.5, -120; Top unit (6)

I'll write this one up in the morning, but lets just say this-- I am having a hard time finding a single win in Miami's schedule. Looks like alot of respected cappers on the fins, which is interesting. I don't see it at all but I could be wrong..:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Come on man. You dont think Parcel is doing the right thing? Just re signed Ricky who has put in his best training camp in years and is ready to redeem himself and kick some ass with Brown in the mix. You don't think Billy's boy Pennington passing game won't open up since alot of the pressure will be taken off him by Williams and Brown? I think the ingredients are there for Miami. I will give them 5 wins this year and the Jets just might be their first one. Brett is going to melt in the Florida humid oven that he is not used to. He will be panting and running for his life against a decent Miami defense.

Anyways, I respect your capping and it's great to see you back in action. Lets just get past all this hurricane shit so we can get back to diving. :cheers::shake:
 
Pinny has this game @ +110 - Is the price moving or do you guys have to pay that much juice!
 
My quick take on the Jets/fins. I was going to write this up in detail but running short on time so I'll give you the quick version.

First, I will say this- I was very high on the Jets prior to the Favre signing and I was giddy when I saw this game. Then two things happened. One, Farve signed but more importantly Pennington signed with the fins.

There is a reason Favre agreed to the Jet deal, he sees the same things I do. An outstanding O-line that just got improved in the off season and a very good defense.. Forget about LY, look at the moves the Jets made. Spent over 100 million and this is the year. I am not saying super Bowl but I am definately saying playoffs.

Favre's impact-- If he does very little I am fine because he just made eveything else better.
  • safties have to get out of the box now to respect Farve's vertical threat.. Whether he does it or not is irrelevant. The threat makes the running game better. Same can be said for linebackers. Look for a ton of success early with draws and screens from the Jets.. Linebackers again must start their drops a little earlier now and this changes the angle blocking to the Jets advantage..
  • Special teams.. Better field position
  • Defense.. Not on the field the whole game.
  • Confidence.. Favre leadership on and off the field is second to none.
Pennington's impact-- This is key because not only did the Jets get rind of the problem, THEY GAVE THE PROBLEM to todays opponent.
  • All the bullet points I listed above for Favre, but esp. #1 was the weaknesses Pennington brought to the Jets and will be the same problem today for the fins.. The safties and linebackers will crowd the line like they always have and Pennington will try to counter that with 7 yard outs.
  • I am not drinking the Ricky Williams cool aid.. (sorry shark) The dude is a loser and has been away too long-- but yes I suppose he is an above average NFL back and in the right system could be a contributor, but this is not the right system. Pennington will not protect the fins running game with any downfield threat what so ever. That is a problem.
Matchup wise this is as good as it good IMHO in the NFL.. Give me neutral turnover margins and this one ain't even close:cheers:
 
Barty said:
Pinny has this game @ +110 - Is the price moving or do you guys have to pay that much juice!
Click to expand...

price is moving and Pinny has much lower vig than I now have access to. (used to us Pinny alot)

I now show -3, -105 with my outlets.:cheers: If you have -3 +110 I'd buy it off the key number.
 
tee*dub said:
My quick take on the Jets/fins. I was going to write this up in detail but running short on time so I'll give you the quick version.

First, I will say this- I was very high on the Jets prior to the Favre signing and I was giddy when I saw this game. Then two things happened. One, Farve signed but more importantly Pennington signed with the fins.

There is a reason Favre agreed to the Jet deal, he sees the same things I do. An outstanding O-line that just got improved in the off season and a very good defense.. Forget about LY, look at the moves the Jets made. Spent over 100 million and this is the year. I am not saying super Bowl but I am definately saying playoffs.

Favre's impact-- If he does very little I am fine because he just made eveything else better.
  • safties have to get out of the box now to respect Farve's vertical threat.. Whether he does it or not is irrelevant. The threat makes the running game better. Same can be said for linebackers. Look for a ton of success early with draws and screens from the Jets.. Linebackers again must start their drops a little earlier now and this changes the angle blocking to the Jets advantage..
  • Special teams.. Better field position
  • Defense.. Not on the field the whole game.
  • Confidence.. Favre leadership on and off the field is second to none.
Pennington's impact-- This is key because not only did the Jets get rind of the problem, THEY GAVE THE PROBLEM to todays opponent.
  • All the bullet points I listed above for Favre, but esp. #1 was the weaknesses Pennington brought to the Jets and will be the same problem today for the fins.. The safties and linebackers will crowd the line like they always have and Pennington will try to counter that with 7 yard outs.
  • I am not drinking the Ricky Williams cool aid.. (sorry shark) The dude is a loser and has been away too long-- but yes I suppose he is an above average NFL back and in the right system could be a contributor, but this is not the right system. Pennington will not protect the fins running game with any downfield threat what so ever. That is a problem.
Matchup wise this is as good as it good IMHO in the NFL.. Give me neutral turnover margins and this one ain't even close:cheers:
Click to expand...


:shake::shake::shake::shake::shake::shake:
 
tee*dub said:
My quick take on the Jets/fins. I was going to write this up in detail but running short on time so I'll give you the quick version.

First, I will say this- I was very high on the Jets prior to the Favre signing and I was giddy when I saw this game. Then one thing happened. I saw spanishshark on the Fins.
Click to expand...

:36_11_6: OK, I get it. No, realy, all joking aside. This will be a very interesting game to watch on both sides. We should be able to learn alot after this game. No matter what QB plays or how good both of these teams are, the JETS always give Miami a headache. It's always been that type of a rivalry. Lets have some fun :cheers:
 
Thanks Tee and good write-up!

Im bit of a newb when it comes to NFL living in the UK and all but very much looking forward to this season!!

Hope you can manage the same returns as last year!

Cheers!
 
add:

Bills -1.5, -110; 2 units

Seems to be popular around here and I agree..

I'll have some adds in the late games and will be lurking as always for a HT play or two..
 
Barty said:
Hope you can manage the same returns as last year!

Cheers!
Click to expand...

Bro, last year was a pretty special run.. Can never expect those numbers every year.. Good luck but to be honest very few around here are successful over the long run with blind tailing.. Just trying to adjust your expectations.. I would suggest you start learning the game, noticing the trends, read all the threads from the established cappers and then start to develop your own perceptions and opinions.. Afterall, that is where the fun is.. Bet very small until you learn the sport.

BTW- I am a tough guy to keep track of unless you are glued to the computer as I add HT plays during a very short window.. Again, just trying to set proper expectations.. Tailing blindly is like trying to time the market. If you miss just one or two of the good days it screws up your whole year. I think SportNut said this once-- It is easier to handicap a sport than it is to selectively tail.. Agree with that..

GL in whatever you do.. You made one good choice by joining CTG.. More talent here than you can get anywhere. And there are very few tout situations here and the ones the do roam the halls do so respectfully.. I say that because it is so difficult at other places because you have to sort through all th BS... We have had them here but they get run off pretty quickly:cheers:
 
Yer you have a point. But im around pretty much on my PC all day, well i will be on game days! So i shouldn't miss anything....

Thanks for the advice
 
Any leans for 2nd half.

I like Buff, seattle cant move the ball, and buff seems to able to move it just a little better. ??
 
spanishshark said:
Brett is going to melt in the Florida humid oven that he is not used to. He will be panting and running for his life against a decent Miami defense.
Click to expand...

Favre is from southern Mississippi, still lives in Hattiesburg most the time. He knows what playing in humidity feels like.
 
no 2H plays for me.. Like both my spots on my game bets..

Jets lacking kicker has totally fucked that game up as it could easily fall off a key number now.. Hope we don't get screwed with one or two point Jet victory..

Working on final play in the late game..:cheers:

Someone asked.. No time for baseball today..
 
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I will say this-- The HD NFL Gamemix on Directv is the best invention since the Vagina.

8 games all at once, one screen (69 inch helps) all in HD.. And you can switch the audio to the desired game.. It is unbelievable.:smiley_acbe:
 
Early games both looking good.:smiley_acbe:

Add:

Ariz -2.5, -110; 3 units

This is Warner's team and I think he shows why today.. So many weapons for Cards.. Martz is a scary guy to face and I will be interested in the game in general for future reference.. I think 9ers will be a good team at some point in the year. Not early though with inexperienced QB..

Be looking for 2H plays on late games. Much easier to keep track of 3 games as opposed to 9..:cheers:
 
.
.
.
.
<-------might cash this ticket (and a few others) today. Cards up 2-1 late.. Looking for win #77
 
actually considered hedging out of Ariz but number was problematic for that.. Sticking with the Cards. Would lean the 2H over as it appears both team having trouble protecting the ball and expect some trading of scores..
 
glad my jets could come through for you tee, sweater at the end but we pulled it off

BOL on the cards
 
Please leave Warner in the no huddle offense. It is not that difficult-- look at his career in the no-huddle vs standard set.:smiley_acbe:

20-10 Ariz..
 
glad I didn't hedge out of Ariz. Keep Warner in the no huddle and he'll be fine.

3-0 day picked up 11 units.. Nice day:smiley_acbe:
 
Debated the Sunday nighter long and hard. Got a perfect day going and a very nice feel for Monday's card.

But..

If I told you an NFL game existed in which you could get 10 points against a team with two missing offensive linemen and a gimpy QB who didn't play a down in the Pre-season, would you be interested?

This is the NFL not the MAC.

Bears +10.5, -120, 2 units
 
Feel the same way Tee . 2 key OL out and a QB who didnt play in the preseason facing a defense with attitude . Which btw didnt look that impressive in preseason IMO but has a healthy secondary . Think we see some turnovers on both sides producing points . Going with 14-10 at half and 24-20 game ......played it that way as well
 
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