NFL Sunday 2/7 Super Bowl

[Wiretowire]

YTD +1154
3-1 last

KC ML -160 x400

I don't know why I waited to bet this. I knew who I wanted as soon as they knew who was playing. I guess I waited to see how covid would affect players but in retrospect I also knew they would delay the game if someone important got the virus. (They wouldn't play this game if Brady or Mahommes couldn't play) But since the NFL is about as stupid as you can get (exceeded only by MLB) I guess there was always a risk.

KC will win this game and here's why........

Yes, Brady is obviously very good and experienced but the experience factor advantage goes away because KC just played in and won the last Super Bowl. It certainly doesn't give TB an advantage because if you think about it more KC players played in last years big game than TB players have ever played in the SB, ever. So, actually the experience factor is with KC not TB despite what "tv experts" may think or say. Unless Brady can Vulcan mind meld with his teammates KC gets a big advantage here.

I don't think anyone can cover KC's Hill. Period and on to the next point.

LB's have three responsibilities. They have to tackle backs out of the backfield on runs. They have to cover the backs (and TE) on passes. And they have to cover the QB if he decides to run. Mahommes may run. Brady isn't going to run ever. He even walks on and off the field. That gives the KC defense a big edge in LB responsibilities and don't think it doesn't matter because it does. A lot.

Finally, in my opinion TB plods. They move in mostly small bites of the field. Yes, they can hit a long play but not as well or as fast as KC can and does. If TB falls way behind KC, they are in trouble. If KC falls way behind TB, they can come back and come back in a hurry.

I don't like laying 3 points though. I never said this will be a BIG win but I am confident KC will win. And as for the total, I think it goes under 56 but no way am I betting an under when the winner of the game to me is staring me in the face.

Final score prediction - (which coming from me means about as much as asking the Oracle of Delphi)

KC 38 - TB 17

But it could just as easily be KC 28 - TB 27 so don't be thinking about giving up those 3 points to Brady. GL

 

[2daBank]

I think experience matters less this year than any other, not as if we have the typical hoopla of SB week and everything that comes with it. Kc not even showing up till day before game, no parties or anything to give players the chance to screw up. I think those the biggest factors when it comes to experience but this gonna be much more like any other game than it normally is. Obviously the significance of the game itself bigger but don’t think that matters much once they take the field, it the preparation and distractions leading up to it that can be problematic imo.

anyways I agree w kc, gl.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good read W2.

 

[SIGO]

Enjoyed the write up, wire.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Very nice season W2W , I always appreciate your write ups. Good luck on your action always

 

[wiseplayer]

YTD +1154
3-1 last

KC ML -160 x400

I don't know why I waited to bet this. I knew who I wanted as soon as they knew who was playing. I guess I waited to see how covid would affect players but in retrospect I also knew they would delay the game if someone important got the virus. (They wouldn't play this game if Brady or Mahommes couldn't play) But since the NFL is about as stupid as you can get (exceeded only by MLB) I guess there was always a risk.

KC will win this game and here's why........

Yes, Brady is obviously very good and experienced but the experience factor advantage goes away because KC just played in and won the last Super Bowl. It certainly doesn't give TB an advantage because if you think about it more KC players played in last years big game than TB players have ever played in the SB, ever. So, actually the experience factor is with KC not TB despite what "tv experts" may think or say. Unless Brady can Vulcan mind meld with his teammates KC gets a big advantage here.

I don't think anyone can cover KC's Hill. Period and on to the next point.

LB's have three responsibilities. They have to tackle backs out of the backfield on runs. They have to cover the backs (and TE) on passes. And they have to cover the QB if he decides to run. Mahommes may run. Brady isn't going to run ever. He even walks on and off the field. That gives the KC defense a big edge in LB responsibilities and don't think it doesn't matter because it does. A lot.

Finally, in my opinion TB plods. They move in mostly small bites of the field. Yes, they can hit a long play but not as well or as fast as KC can and does. If TB falls way behind KC, they are in trouble. If KC falls way behind TB, they can come back and come back in a hurry.

I don't like laying 3 points though. I never said this will be a BIG win but I am confident KC will win. And as for the total, I think it goes under 56 but no way am I betting an under when the winner of the game to me is staring me in the face.

Final score prediction - (which coming from me means about as much as asking the Oracle of Delphi)

KC 38 - TB 17

But it could just as easily be KC 28 - TB 27 so don't be thinking about giving up those 3 points to Brady. GL

Would not be nice if KC won by 1 or 2. GL