NFL selections week 4

[Satyr]

Beginner's luck was with me last week, as I completed a 3-0, +21 unit sweep in my first official week of NFL capping. I'm not entirely new to following this sport, but as far as official plays are concerned (and you know I like to keep track of my plays) that was the debut.

I'm hoping for the streak to continue, what else should I say? :36_11_6:

(plays are bolded, leans in italics)

Here it is:
Vikings ML (I'll add the price later on when I pull the trigger, still waiting on the line to consolidate, as we had a movement from +1 to +2, waiting for it to come to +3 and pounding it. Love the fact GB is a huge public play, I know they're the better team here but there are some trends I can't disregard, the dog cashing in in this series, the home dog situation, etc...
Won't overthink this one too much.
5 units will be the stake.


Two things I love fading here. First of, the Lions coming off that defensive collapse last week (allowed 56 to PHI), QB change for CHI, and they're favored on the road, like it's "that easy".

The fact that they're favored however, might have something to do with their domination over the Lions (last 4 h2h 4-0-0, 117:47).

Add that injured Bears' D to the equation and you've got yourself a play. Forget these 3 points, I'm going to be cocky (I was cocky last week, turned out well )

Lions are a strong lean.

Leaning NE -7 for the Monday game as well.


Good luck tonight guys. :shake: I'll add some more thoughts (and finalize the plays) when I get back home. :cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

sharp play on the Vikes.. The world is in love with the packers. GL, like it

 

[Pirate88]

Nice pick Satyr, Vikings will roll

 

[Popcorn Light]

:cheers:

 

[Satyr]

thanks guys. Took DET ML for 3 units as well, just came home so couldn't post it.


GL :shake:

 

[Satyr]

adding:

Seahawks ML (1.76 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Pittsburgh -5,5 (1.97 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

 

[Satyr]

2 W 2 L -2.14 this Sunday. I'll add a bet for tonight later on. :shake:

 

[Satyr]

adding: (MNF play)

I've read a ton of shit about this game. A ton of game related info, and at least 3 tons of conspiracy theories saying how bookies make money off of people who bet overrated favs. I know about that. I don't consider myself to be a "pro" (simply because I don't LIVE off betting but have a regular job instead) but the fact I've ever ended a season in a loss in any sport means I'm not THAT NAIVE after all.

Anyways, onto the game. Yeah I know this means laying 7.5 on MNF and the world will be on the big fav, on the team who are already "superbowl material", but I don't care at this point.

The Bengals have a rather inept defense, despite the fact Carson Palmer should get them up at home, I still don't rate these Bengals highly (seen them once this year, wasn't impressed).

Vegas won't go bankrupt just because NE covers here. They will prolly take a hit but they won't go down. Some people think they will. They surely don't like losing, but I think it is highly exaggerated to think they "have to win every Monday night" just because the world is chasing.

I will let game elements outweigh every other aspect here, and say NE wins by double digits.

The fact Rudi Johnson is out surely affects the play to some extent, but my understanding of these Pats as a complete team and probably the best in the league right now makes me pulls the trigger. The thing to think about: winning by more than 7.5 does not equate into a "heavy beating" anyways. I'm just counting on NE not to let this one end up being that close.
Brady & co. roll to another win here in my opinion.


Patriots -7,5 (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

 

[CenTexGambler]

:cheers: I'm with ya!!!:cheers:

 

[Joe Public]

Good luck tonight, Satyr, I hope you hit it.

And good call on Seattle yesterday, if only they could all be like that.

 

[spanishshark]

Good Luck Satyr. Enjoy the game :cheers: and I agree, that was a good call on Seattle :shake:

 

[Satyr]

Thanks guys, good luck tonight. :shake: :cheers:

 

[slim5150]

nice 3-2 weekend and plus a couple units. Not a bad start for your rookie campaign. At least I think you said this was your first.

Anyway, gl going forward

 

[Satyr]

Thanks Slim. :shake: Yep, these are my first official plays on NFL. I've been watching it for a couple of seasons but only now I felt capable of actually capping it and finding edges on my own. Of course, I still rely on senior cappers a lot since I lack experience in this area, but I'll stay humble and say I would be satisfied with ANY profit in the rookie season.


The season is long. :shake:

:cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

nice hit w/ pats