NFL Regular Season Props
Henry Ruggs — Total Receiving Yards
Over/Under 720.5 Receiving Yards
Oakland’s Desperation
Oakland has been desperate for big-play, high-level receiving talent.
Antonio Brown was the goal. But the situation with him didn’t pan out.
Last year, their dearth of options at wide receiver was acutely felt.
Tight end Darren Waller was targeted 117 times. This number was on-par with some teams’ top wide receivers. Seattle’s Tyler Lockett, for example, was targeted 112 times.
Waller also had close to double as many targets as Oakland’s top deep-play wide receiver — Tyrell Wiliams was targeted 64 times albeit in two fewer games.
But Derek Carr emphasized short passes. So Hunter Renfrow — a fifth-round draft pick — received 71 targets and two different running backs were targeted over 40 times.
These numbers show that lower-end pass-catching talent took up a lot of Carr’s targets.
Fast forward to the NFL Draft where the Raiders have their choice of every incoming wide receiver, including the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy.
They decide that Henry Ruggs is their favorite wide receiver. In a wide receiver-heavy draft, this was a big statement.
When I said that lower-end pass-catching talent was absorbing so much of Carr’s attention, I didn’t mean to knock Renfrow.
But I do want to suggest a strong disparity in talent between the likes of Renfrow and the top wide receiver taken in a wide receiver-heavy draft.
Clearly the Raiders agree with me. Renfrow took 71 percent of his snaps last year from the slot, which is where Ruggs will start out.
In the past two years at Alabama, Ruggs played 218 snaps from the slot.
Versatility
My point here is that a ton of targets are there for Ruggs to take.
Part of the reason why I like Ruggs is actually the fact that I don’t know exactly where he’ll be targeted.
Does Carr want to emphasize the short passing game again?
Last year, Carr ranked second only to Teddy Bridgewater in average intended air yards (6.3).
Ruggs was very much a short-yardage receiving option in Alabama.
A large reason why he had so many receiving yards was because of how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands.
In 2019, 56 percent of his receiving yards counted as yards after the catch (YAC).
He’s obviously very fast — his 40-time was 4.27. He gets separation quickly and his physicality both before and after the catch is highly underrated.
But Carr has a deep-ball capability that is extremely underrated. In 2018, he led qualified NFL quarterbacks in deep ball accuracy. In 2016-2018, he ranked third overall among qualified quarterbacks in the category.
Ruggs is also a deep threat and not just because of his speed but also because of his underrated vertical ability for contested catch situations.
I like Ruggs so much because he'll beat defenses in different situations that Carr will take advantage of.
The Verdict
The targets will be there. So will the versatility, talent, durability, and ability in Ruggs plus the compatibility with both versions of Carr (the check-down Carr and the accurate deep passer).
Best Bet: Over 720.5 Receiving Yards (-115) with BetOnline
Joe Mixon — Total Rushing Yards
Over/Under 1,159.5 Rushing Yards
A Fair Number?
This seems to be a fair number given Mixon’s historical stats.
Last year, Mixon ran for 1,137 yards in 16 games. In 2018, he accrued 1,168 yards in 14 games.
Obstacles
Two things stood in Mixon’s way last year.
One, adjustments had to be made in Zac Taylor’s first year as the team’s head coach.
In both September and October, Mixon only averaged 3.2 YPC. What held him back was the emphasis on zone-blocking. About halfway through the season, the Bengals switched to gap-style blocking.
Largely as a result of this switch, Mixon averaged 4.4 YPC in November and 4.7 YPC in December.
Secondly, the Bengals had to deal with the unfortunate fact of two important offensive linemen getting injured before the season began.
Especially with former first-rounder Jonah Williams back at offensive line, the Bengals’ run-blocking will improve.
And keep in mind that any recap of Cincinnati’s run-blocking numbers reflect those first seven weeks in which they emphasized an unfavorable blocking scheme.
Advantages
In my Regular Season Win Total article, I talked about how much I like Joe Burrow to succeed in the NFL.
Several statistics show that, last year, Cincinnati presented one of the lowest-ranked passing attacks.
Burrow will provide an upgrade. Plus, one of the top receivers in A.J. Green is healthy.
With a more competitive offense, the Bengals will have more drives, more opportunities to stick to the run, and fewer opportunities to give up the run.
Burrow does like to throw the ball to his running backs. But pass-catching is Giovani Bernard’s specialty — he averages about four targets per game in his career.
On the ground, Mixon will continue to be the focal point.
As for strength of schedule, Cincinnati measures out as having one of the most favorable array of opponents for running backs.
Such opponents include Jacksonville, whose porous run defense rose to fame thanks to Derrick Henry’s improbable rush totals.
The Verdict
Oddsmakers are setting a very modest over/under for Mixon’s rushing total.
They’re basically asking for Mixon to improve on what he’s already done.
With better run-blocking, a better overall offense, a more competitive team, continuity as the focal point on the ground, and soft opponents, Mixon will blast past 1,200 rushing yards.
Best Bet: Mixon Over 1,159.5 Rushing Yards (-115) with BetOnline
Matthew Stafford — Total Passing Yards
Over/Under 4274.5 Passing Yards
&
Matthew Stafford -- Total Interceptions
Over/Under 11.5 Interceptions
Durability
In 2018, Stafford accumulated 3,777 passing yards in 16 games played.
Last year, he only played eight games and accumulated 2,499 passing yards.
The common factor in both seasons was his back. He should be healthy now. But evidently, maintaining a healthy back throughout an entire season has become a challenge for him.
For argument’s sake, i’m going to assume that he remains healthy this season. But durability is a relative issue for him and hence a noteworthy obstacle to his passing numbers.
Coaching
Darrell Bevell is Detroit’s offensive coordinator. A trend in his history as offensive coordinator is telling.
In his second year at Minnesota, in 2007, his Viking offense improved from ranking 16th in rushing in 2006 to first.
Likewise, his second-year Seattle squad ranked third in rushing in 2012 after ranking 21st in the category in the previous year.
Personnel
If Bevell’s trend isn’t telling, just look at what Detroit has emphasized this offseason.
Besides already having Kerryon Johnson, the Lions drafted running back D’Andre Swift with their second pick of the NFL Draft.
They also signed Adrian Peterson, thus reuniting him with Bevell, who was Minnesota’s offensive coordinator in the year (2007) that Peterson was drafted by the Vikings.
Statistics show that Peterson remains strong at running through contact, which allowed him to accrue 898 rushing yards last year.
So now Detroit has three starter-caliber running backs.
In terms of xYPC (Expected Yards Per Carry), Detroit’s offensive line ranked ninth last year. Lion blockers did a good job of creating opportunities for their running backs.
The left side of Detroit’s offensive returns.
Right guard was an emphasis for the Lions in the Draft.
At right-tackle, Halapoulivaati Vaitai takes over.
According to PFF, he grades out much higher as a run-blocker.
Given how the right side of Detroit’s offensive line looks now, i’m not sure that the Lions can improve upon their eighth-worst ranking in pressured dropback rate.
Lack of pass protection means lowered probability that Stafford remains healthy and lessened likelihood for him to attempt deep passes.
But Detroit will remain one of the better run-blocking units.
Interceptions
With all of Detroit’s veteran wide receivers back, chemistry will not be an issue for Stafford. Plus, he has a new pass-catching option in D’Andre Swift, who will be a source of easy completions.
Stafford has not thrown more than 11 interceptions in any season since 2015.
In 2015, Detroit’s leading rusher had all of 597 yards on the ground.
With massively more run support, there will be minimal onus on Stafford to be the offense’s focal point and to force passes.
The Verdict
Given Bevell’s history, given Stafford’s pass-catching options, and even forgetting his durability issues, we should expect a strong rush attack from Detroit this season.
As odd as this expectation may seem to Lions fans, the personnel exists in the form of three starter-caliber running backs and underrated run-blocking.
With extra run support and so many veteran pass-catching options, there’s no reason to think that interceptions suddenly become any more of a problem for Stafford.
Best Bets: Under 4274.5 Passing Yards (-115) & Under 11.5 Interceptions (-115) with BetOnline
Henry Ruggs — Total Receiving Yards
Over/Under 720.5 Receiving Yards
Oakland’s Desperation
Oakland has been desperate for big-play, high-level receiving talent.
Antonio Brown was the goal. But the situation with him didn’t pan out.
Last year, their dearth of options at wide receiver was acutely felt.
Tight end Darren Waller was targeted 117 times. This number was on-par with some teams’ top wide receivers. Seattle’s Tyler Lockett, for example, was targeted 112 times.
Waller also had close to double as many targets as Oakland’s top deep-play wide receiver — Tyrell Wiliams was targeted 64 times albeit in two fewer games.
But Derek Carr emphasized short passes. So Hunter Renfrow — a fifth-round draft pick — received 71 targets and two different running backs were targeted over 40 times.
These numbers show that lower-end pass-catching talent took up a lot of Carr’s targets.
Fast forward to the NFL Draft where the Raiders have their choice of every incoming wide receiver, including the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy.
They decide that Henry Ruggs is their favorite wide receiver. In a wide receiver-heavy draft, this was a big statement.
When I said that lower-end pass-catching talent was absorbing so much of Carr’s attention, I didn’t mean to knock Renfrow.
But I do want to suggest a strong disparity in talent between the likes of Renfrow and the top wide receiver taken in a wide receiver-heavy draft.
Clearly the Raiders agree with me. Renfrow took 71 percent of his snaps last year from the slot, which is where Ruggs will start out.
In the past two years at Alabama, Ruggs played 218 snaps from the slot.
Versatility
My point here is that a ton of targets are there for Ruggs to take.
Part of the reason why I like Ruggs is actually the fact that I don’t know exactly where he’ll be targeted.
Does Carr want to emphasize the short passing game again?
Last year, Carr ranked second only to Teddy Bridgewater in average intended air yards (6.3).
Ruggs was very much a short-yardage receiving option in Alabama.
A large reason why he had so many receiving yards was because of how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands.
In 2019, 56 percent of his receiving yards counted as yards after the catch (YAC).
He’s obviously very fast — his 40-time was 4.27. He gets separation quickly and his physicality both before and after the catch is highly underrated.
But Carr has a deep-ball capability that is extremely underrated. In 2018, he led qualified NFL quarterbacks in deep ball accuracy. In 2016-2018, he ranked third overall among qualified quarterbacks in the category.
Ruggs is also a deep threat and not just because of his speed but also because of his underrated vertical ability for contested catch situations.
I like Ruggs so much because he'll beat defenses in different situations that Carr will take advantage of.
The Verdict
The targets will be there. So will the versatility, talent, durability, and ability in Ruggs plus the compatibility with both versions of Carr (the check-down Carr and the accurate deep passer).
Best Bet: Over 720.5 Receiving Yards (-115) with BetOnline
Joe Mixon — Total Rushing Yards
Over/Under 1,159.5 Rushing Yards
A Fair Number?
This seems to be a fair number given Mixon’s historical stats.
Last year, Mixon ran for 1,137 yards in 16 games. In 2018, he accrued 1,168 yards in 14 games.
Obstacles
Two things stood in Mixon’s way last year.
One, adjustments had to be made in Zac Taylor’s first year as the team’s head coach.
In both September and October, Mixon only averaged 3.2 YPC. What held him back was the emphasis on zone-blocking. About halfway through the season, the Bengals switched to gap-style blocking.
Largely as a result of this switch, Mixon averaged 4.4 YPC in November and 4.7 YPC in December.
Secondly, the Bengals had to deal with the unfortunate fact of two important offensive linemen getting injured before the season began.
Especially with former first-rounder Jonah Williams back at offensive line, the Bengals’ run-blocking will improve.
And keep in mind that any recap of Cincinnati’s run-blocking numbers reflect those first seven weeks in which they emphasized an unfavorable blocking scheme.
Advantages
In my Regular Season Win Total article, I talked about how much I like Joe Burrow to succeed in the NFL.
Several statistics show that, last year, Cincinnati presented one of the lowest-ranked passing attacks.
Burrow will provide an upgrade. Plus, one of the top receivers in A.J. Green is healthy.
With a more competitive offense, the Bengals will have more drives, more opportunities to stick to the run, and fewer opportunities to give up the run.
Burrow does like to throw the ball to his running backs. But pass-catching is Giovani Bernard’s specialty — he averages about four targets per game in his career.
On the ground, Mixon will continue to be the focal point.
As for strength of schedule, Cincinnati measures out as having one of the most favorable array of opponents for running backs.
Such opponents include Jacksonville, whose porous run defense rose to fame thanks to Derrick Henry’s improbable rush totals.
The Verdict
Oddsmakers are setting a very modest over/under for Mixon’s rushing total.
They’re basically asking for Mixon to improve on what he’s already done.
With better run-blocking, a better overall offense, a more competitive team, continuity as the focal point on the ground, and soft opponents, Mixon will blast past 1,200 rushing yards.
Best Bet: Mixon Over 1,159.5 Rushing Yards (-115) with BetOnline
Matthew Stafford — Total Passing Yards
Over/Under 4274.5 Passing Yards
&
Matthew Stafford -- Total Interceptions
Over/Under 11.5 Interceptions
Durability
In 2018, Stafford accumulated 3,777 passing yards in 16 games played.
Last year, he only played eight games and accumulated 2,499 passing yards.
The common factor in both seasons was his back. He should be healthy now. But evidently, maintaining a healthy back throughout an entire season has become a challenge for him.
For argument’s sake, i’m going to assume that he remains healthy this season. But durability is a relative issue for him and hence a noteworthy obstacle to his passing numbers.
Coaching
Darrell Bevell is Detroit’s offensive coordinator. A trend in his history as offensive coordinator is telling.
In his second year at Minnesota, in 2007, his Viking offense improved from ranking 16th in rushing in 2006 to first.
Likewise, his second-year Seattle squad ranked third in rushing in 2012 after ranking 21st in the category in the previous year.
Personnel
If Bevell’s trend isn’t telling, just look at what Detroit has emphasized this offseason.
Besides already having Kerryon Johnson, the Lions drafted running back D’Andre Swift with their second pick of the NFL Draft.
They also signed Adrian Peterson, thus reuniting him with Bevell, who was Minnesota’s offensive coordinator in the year (2007) that Peterson was drafted by the Vikings.
Statistics show that Peterson remains strong at running through contact, which allowed him to accrue 898 rushing yards last year.
So now Detroit has three starter-caliber running backs.
In terms of xYPC (Expected Yards Per Carry), Detroit’s offensive line ranked ninth last year. Lion blockers did a good job of creating opportunities for their running backs.
The left side of Detroit’s offensive returns.
Right guard was an emphasis for the Lions in the Draft.
At right-tackle, Halapoulivaati Vaitai takes over.
According to PFF, he grades out much higher as a run-blocker.
Given how the right side of Detroit’s offensive line looks now, i’m not sure that the Lions can improve upon their eighth-worst ranking in pressured dropback rate.
Lack of pass protection means lowered probability that Stafford remains healthy and lessened likelihood for him to attempt deep passes.
But Detroit will remain one of the better run-blocking units.
Interceptions
With all of Detroit’s veteran wide receivers back, chemistry will not be an issue for Stafford. Plus, he has a new pass-catching option in D’Andre Swift, who will be a source of easy completions.
Stafford has not thrown more than 11 interceptions in any season since 2015.
In 2015, Detroit’s leading rusher had all of 597 yards on the ground.
With massively more run support, there will be minimal onus on Stafford to be the offense’s focal point and to force passes.
The Verdict
Given Bevell’s history, given Stafford’s pass-catching options, and even forgetting his durability issues, we should expect a strong rush attack from Detroit this season.
As odd as this expectation may seem to Lions fans, the personnel exists in the form of three starter-caliber running backs and underrated run-blocking.
With extra run support and so many veteran pass-catching options, there’s no reason to think that interceptions suddenly become any more of a problem for Stafford.
Best Bets: Under 4274.5 Passing Yards (-115) & Under 11.5 Interceptions (-115) with BetOnline
