NFL Plays (Week Two)...

[emkee]

Record goes here.

Will audit it soon, not the greatest start.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

The play...

Bengals -5.5 (2 units)

Watson being set up to fail, unknowns at tight-end and down a pair of offensive linemen.

Not too mention being a rookie getting his first start on a short week.

Texans have had the Bungles number of late but given the circumstances I like Cincy to get this by 7+.

Feel dirty betting this game but...

:shake:

 

[emkee]

Thursday night home faves that lost by the double-digits the week prior were 3-0 SU and ATS last season winning by an average of 17.3 points.

Thursday night home faves are 11-4 ATS off a loss since 2004, winning by an average of 8.9 points.

 

[emkee]

Losing to a division rival at home and not getting any points is one thing,

But to back it up by losing at home to a rookie getting his first start is another thing entirely.

Motivational angles are on the Bungles side that's if they possess any pride.

Houston is a lost franchise right now.

 

[emkee]

Spread rarely factors in these Thursday games, so it's Houston straight-up or Bungles minus the number.

Can Deshaun making his first career start lead a banged-up Texans to victory ?

 

[emkee]

Weak reads early on.

2-4 (-5.66)

adding...

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers

The play...

Steelers -6.5 (3.3 to win 3)

Like this spot for the Steez.

Minny flying high on a short week, Steez home opener off a less than convincing road win over the Browns.

2 more plays on the radar.

:shake:

 

[smh212]

Like Pitt as well - can't see what you paid for them due to your choice of yellow on the number - - but my numbers like them under a TD. Believe this thing moves over 7 post 11:30 am EST.

Steelers have averaged 32 ppg at home over L10. Sounds like rust is starting to come off Bell and Bryant, if that's the case I don't think Minny can keep up.

:shake:

 

[eggman]

Good luck, I lean this way but stayed away.

 

[cogenman]

On it too. Hopefully Sam Bradford doesn't play and Case Keenum gets the start. GL em.

 

[Tito]

bol today emkee

 

[emkee]

Thanks fellas.

adding...

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

The play...

Falcons -2.5 -122 (2.44 to win 2)

:shake:

 

[Fondybadger]

Health on SNF game emkee and best of luck with the rest

 

[emkee]

late add...

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

The play...

Seahawks -13.5 (2 units)

:shake:

 

[emkee]

Bad last minute play on the Hags, paid to see that their o-line is as bad as advertised.

O-line is just as important as the QB these days.

Note to self, avoid shitty offensive lines going forward.

Hags were undefeated both SU and ATS off a loss when laying DD's at home under Cheaty Petey.

Were also 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS all-time laying 10+ off a loss at home.

Sad days in Seattle.

Need the Dirty Birds.

 

[emkee]

2-1 (+3) on Sunday.

Monday...

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

The play...

Giants ML -155 (3.1 to win 2)

:shake:

 

[emkee]

Gonna take the 3 units won yesterday and put it on the Gnats ML (Blofrog).

-3 juiced from -115 to -125, paid the extra 30 or so cents. Would lay up to -180.

Lions a terrible non-division underdog vs the ML (11-31 SU in the Stafford era).

Lions 14-53 SU as an underdog in general.

Carson Palmer made Detroit look better than they are last week. Cards almost lost to Brissett and the worst defense in the league yesterday.

Will not read too much into the Giants game last week,

NFC East division games are always messed up, oddball games and shouldn't be relied on for takes for the most part.

Road dogs off a 10+ win home dog win are 36-123 SU (22.6%) since 1990.

Lions also a 'popular' dog, getting over 50% of the love according to various consensus sites,

'Popular' dogs are 0-3 SU and ATS so far this season (Saints Wk 1, Vikes Wk 2, Packers Wk 2).

Had to square it up and play it.

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[YoungGun11]

So you are going to take into account how bad the Cards were against the Colts.....But you are going to overlook how bad Dallas got whooped on by Denver?

 

[emkee]

Are you really gonna put the Broncos and Luck-less Colts in the same sentence buddy ?

 

[YoungGun11]

Carson Palmer made Detroit look better than they are last week. Cards almost lost to Brissett and the worst defense in the league yesterday.

Will not read too much into the Giants game last week,

NFC East division games are always messed up, oddball games and shouldn't be relied on for takes for the most part.

I'm not here to argue, just wanted to point out. Basically in back to back sentences you use one angle to your advantage and blatantly ignore an angle that goes against your play.

Arizona
week 1: Almost beats Detroit on the road
week 2: Defeat Colts on the road

Dallas
week 1: Beats the shit out of Gmen in every way possible
week 2: Gets shit beat out of them in every way possible.

I would say you either take into account both or neither, but what do I know I'm just a 60% handicapper. Good luck with your plays.

 

[tuck321]

Det at nyg(3) 41.5...
Det 3-0 over in last 3 mnf
Ny 4-16-1 ats after playing at Dallas s 94

 

[YoungGun11]

Ny 4-16-1 ats after playing at Dallas s 94

Only thoughts and discussion in line with his play are welcome. It is apparent any other discussion is unwelcome here. Not open to other handicappers having a discussion on a discussion board.

 

[Hulu]

Agree its Giants or nothing here but hard to trust them to get over a 3.5 point hump the way Eli and co looked last week. BOL tonight emkee.

 

[emkee]

I'm not here to argue, just wanted to point out. Basically in back to back sentences you use one angle to your advantage and blatantly ignore an angle that goes against your play.

Arizona
week 1: Almost beats Detroit on the road
week 2: Defeat Colts on the road

Dallas
week 1: Beats the shit out of Gmen in every way possible
week 2: Gets shit beat out of them in every way possible.

I would say you either take into account both or neither, but what do I know I'm just a 60% handicapper. Good luck with your plays.

Firstly, Lions outscored the Cards 26-13 in the 2nd half and won the game by 10+, wouldn't call that almost.

Indy gave up 46 points to the Lambs in Week 1, and the Lambs just lost to Smokin' Jay aka the worst ATS QB in the league at home.

And I said I'm not gonna read too much into the Giants at Cows game because it's an NFC East divisional game.

Take it from a guy that's watched NFC East games for over half my life,

They're known for producing crazy results so from my personal capping perspective I'm not gonna take much from it.

I'm not asking you to discount it, I'm saying I'm discounting it for the most part.

Thanks for letting me know you're a self-proclaimed 60% handicapper, champ. Over the past week, year, 60% purely in the NFL or at the track ?

lol, gtfoh.

 

[emkee]

Det at nyg(3) 41.5...
Det 3-0 over in last 3 mnf
Ny 4-16-1 ats after playing at Dallas s 94

They're 5-16-1 ATS and the Giants won last year in this scenario but failed to cover as a 4.5 home fave.

Lions 13-44 SU (19-36-2 ATS) as a road dog off a home win.

Detroit winning the negative trend battle by a long mile either way.

 

[tuck321]

I am not sure that is the way to look at it. Detroit has a real quarterback and is moving up. Giants are simply based on fundamentals not that good this year

 

[tuck321]

Or very simply if it goes to 3.5 I am on Detroit. If not may flip a coin or bet them anyway.

 

[emkee]

If it goes to 3.5 all things considered, I would consider that a strong indicator to the Giants.

Pinny holding a 3.5 right now as is Matchbook, has been there since about 2pm eastern.

 

[emkee]

Just flipped to 3.5 at BM and CRIS.

 

[emkee]

I am not sure that is the way to look at it. Detroit has a real quarterback and is moving up. Giants are simply based on fundamentals not that good this year

Not looking at it that way, meaning based solely on trends and the like.

Imo, the Giants have a better defense than the Lions and having had one game minus OBJ under their belts the offense will be better for it the 2nd time around.

Strengths and weaknesses based on limited knowledge (being only Week 2) and using mainly pre-season indicators has me on NYG.

Lions may win obviously but will trust what's in front of me.

And to suggest Stafford is a 'real quarterback' and potentially indicate Eli is not is pretty foolish tbh, Tuck.

Way too early to say who is really that bad or really that good, unless we're talking about the Falcons who are that good.

 

[emkee]

OBJ playing apparently.

 

[YoungGun11]

Betting based on trends explains why you are always on the chalk. Whether it's NBA or NFL a big square bettor, makes sense seeing as you count the trends and their directions.

 

[emkee]

Betting based on trends explains why you are always on the chalk. Whether it's NBA or NFL a big square bettor, makes sense seeing as you count the trends and their directions.

Okay young fella, you know nothing. Trends are indicators and part of a broader pool of capping.

Been around too long to bet on trends alone but you wouldn't know that. You post ignorance instead.

Guess we've found our troll/hater to fill the void left by LebbyWade.

I kinda figured you'd be the leading candidate for the role.

 

[YoungGun11]

Trends and heavy favorites are all you post. Would love some insight on what you consider outside of trends, as all you ever document are trends. I am discussing betting you want to make it personal.