NFL Plays (Week Six)...

[emkee]

7-3 (+10.41)

Thursday...

New York Giants at New England Patriots

The play...

Patriots -13.5 -160 (3.2 to win 2)

Bought it down to the 'opener' even though back in May this spread was Pats -11. These flag football lines are sharp.

Time to sit back and watch this thing finish 14-3 to the Patriots, lol.

No 14+ underdog on a Thursday night has scored more than 3 points ever (5 games).

Average losing margin for a two touchdown or more underdog on ThNF is -22.8 points (5 games).

Pats 12-0 SU (9-3 ATS) as 14+ chalk at home with an average winning margin of 21.5 points since the 2011 season.

Bill Belichick is 12-0 SU at home vs rookie QB's. They are 9-3 ATS in those games with all 9 wins by 14+.

Think Danny Dimes gets the Sam Darnold treatment tonight.

:cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

Who opened 13.5? I see DraftQueens opened 14.5 and CG Tech had a 14.5 on a lookahead briefly last Friday. That's about it.

 

[emkee]

Who opened 13.5? I see DraftQueens opened 14.5 and CG Tech had a 14.5 on a lookahead briefly last Friday. That's about it.

Opened -14 at FanDuel. Use the Walmart of sportsbooks as a gauge for the US markets.

The respected books offshore opened at -15 I believe (CRIS etc).

My line for this game is -14.5 (ELO, projected line-up outputs yada, yada).

 

[B.A.R.]

Same goes with the -160

Who is giving these low juices on a buy down of that magnitude? I looked around at 6 books and the best I was was 13.5 -175

Just curious, so members know where to shop.

 

[B.A.R.]

Opened -14 at FanDuel. Use the Walmart of sportsbooks as a gauge for the US markets.

The respected books offshore opened at -15 I believe (CRIS etc).

My line for this game is -14.5 (ELO, projected line-up outputs yada, yada).

I know in the NBA you ignore your own numbers and bet the opposite mostly.... is that the case here? NYG +17 would be the prudent play then with your numbers.

 

[B.A.R.]

Either way, GL tonight.

 

[emkee]

I know in the NBA you ignore your own numbers and bet the opposite mostly.... is that the case here? NYG +17 would be the prudent play then with your numbers.

Couldn't bet the Giants based on the historical trends provided above.

Also injuries aren't factored.

 

[emkee]

Same goes with the -160

Who is giving these low juices on a buy down of that magnitude? I looked around at 6 books and the best I was was 13.5 -175

Just curious, so members know where to shop.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Pats -13.5 at -145.

 

[B.A.R.]

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Pats -13.5 at -145.

Yeah but where did you play it at -160?

 

[Inspekdah]

-145 is good. 5dimes is -175.

 

[emkee]

Yeah but where did you play it at -160?

Went out for a bit so a little late with the reply.

I’m on my usual overseas buzz r/n.

Back in Cali on Nov 21st.

Played at an Australasian sports book.

Happy to provide a link for a visual.

It’s at about -165 now. Peaked at -159.

Either way given the ‘numbers’ I’d play it at anything up to -180 if available.

 

[emkee]

8-3 (+12.41)

Currently on the Chiefs -3.5 to win 2 units. Posted earlier on Twitter.

EMKEE (@EMK33Z) | Twitter

:cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

8-3 (+12.41)

Currently on the Chiefs -3.5 to win 2 units. Posted earlier on Twitter.

EMKEE (@EMK33Z) | Twitter

:cheers3:

Noted, saw it.

 

[emkee]

adding...

Rams ML to win 2 units.