NFL Playoffs - Round One

Joe Public

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
After betting too many bowl games for the second straight year and losing money I'm going to try to put being stupid behind me (tougher than you might suspect) and move on with my life.

In my case that means looking at the NFL playoffs.

I figure I'll write these up now because, well, because I feel like it.

First, let me express my disappointment and sadness that this first round of the playoffs doesn't include the Cleveland Browns who, I think, deserve to be there more than a banged up Tennessee team. But, of course, what I think matters for jacks**t if Cleveland can't beat a 4-11 Cincy team.

Nonetheless, it sucks for them and for those of us who have to watch Tenny get run over by SD.

Oddly enough, however, that's not the game I like the most.

The game I think I like the most right now is Seattle vs. Washington.

Washington has played great the last few weeks, so great that the line keeps going down, down, down.

Which is totally fine with me because I think Seattle is going to beat the p*ss out of this team. Here's why.

During Washington's run with Todd 'Don't Call me Tom' Collins, where they've won four straight and are 4-2 in their last six, they've played not one team that could be expected to throw the ball well in the situation they were playing in.

Both Dallas and the Giants can be considered decent passing teams in my book, but Dallas had no TO and nothing to play for and in the Meadowlands the weather wasn't good and Eli sucks in the cold. The other teams were Chicago, Minnesota, and Buffalo (who they lost to thanks to Joe Gibbs being a moron). (They played TB who I don't consider a good passing team, but TB beat them so it kind of doesn't matter.)

Really, what I think you have are sort of skewed results in these four wins. People say they're on fire, but they were on fire against entirely one dimensional teams. I don't think the Skins have played a decent passing team in six weeks, and the last time they did it was on the road, at Dallas, and they got eaten up.

Now they have to fly across the country to play in Seattle which is a horrible place to have to go to and Seattle will look to do what they've looked to do to everybody for the second half of the season, and that's spread you out and throw on you.

I don't see how Washington stops that particularly, and this sucks to say, but without Sean Taylor in the lineup. They couldn't stop Dallas when they did it, hell they couldn't stop Philly when they did it in Washington, so why should they be able to do it now?

I like Seattle here and I like the over 40 so long as the weather holds up. Something like 27-17, 24-17, 27-14 feels right to me. I do think Washington can score, maybe even getting into the low 20s, but I think they're going to give up more than people think in this spot.


Tampa Bay vs. NYG

To me this game is all about injuries. The Giants are a mess with them. Antonio Pierce is hurting, Shaun O'Hara on their line has a sprained MCL, so does LB Kawika Mitchell, and I believe they lost safety Craig Dahl. This is all on top of losing Jeremy Shockey for the season, having Plaxico still gimpy, and not being sure they'll have Dockery in the secondary either.

Still this seems like the only team NY could possibly beat in the playoffs, save maybe Seattle in NY. If they can just pound the ball they might be all right, but I don't think they're going to be able to. This strikes me a lot like the Washington at TB game from a couple of years ago in the playoffs which Washington couldn't move the ball at all and still won thanks to weird turnovers and ineptness on Tampa's part. I suppose the former could happen this weekend, but I don't think the latter will.

I think Garcia's good enough to put up 17 on this NY team and I have trouble seeing NY get past 13. Gruden finally has a QB he likes, they've lost two straight and I think they power through this one doing their best 'we're hungry' impression.


Jax @ Pittsburgh

As someone who had the Steelers in the last meeting between these two, I don't think I'm simply over-valuing that loss when I say this. Jax won that game for one reason, they dominated the line of scrimmage. On both sides of the ball, they pushed Pittsburgh around all day.

I don't see why that won't happen again here.

Pittsburgh is now without Max Starks on the O-line, and without Willie Parker. This means that a line that already had trouble against this Jags' front will have one less piece to work with. It also means that a team that kills you with play action no longer has that threat without Parker in the backfield.

Add to this that they're without Allen Rossum (sp?) and you're looking at a team that doesn't threaten you with good starting field position or a solid running game. That up against a good defensive line and a team that can run the ball well has to worry you.

Pittsburgh hasn't looked good against the run in six weeks, maybe longer. I don't know how you fix that in one week.

You can say what you want about Garrard, and when he has to go play NE or Indy maybe he'll have to do more than he will here, but in this game I don't think he has to do very much at all.

I figure 23-17, 23-13, 20-17 Jags.

I don't think I'll be betting SD vs. Tennessee, but I think SD should win 31-13. I don't know if they will, but I think they should beat that team easily.

Official listed out plays to follow. Going back and forth with SportsNut to follow as well.

Good luck this weekend everybody.
 
That Dallas/Washington game is really misleading, I think, TO is the guy that ate the Skins up, not the passing game as a whole. Romo really didn't look great that game, but because he hit TO for like 4 passes over 25 yards, his stats looked great. Those passes were to a wide open TO, completely wide open. Obviously that isn't good for the Wash secondary, but the point is, they get burnt by great WRs but I don't think that pertains to seattle. I don't see Deion Branch or anyone else in the same neighborhood as TO, they're all OK. Plus, the weather should be pretty awful in Seattle this Saturday, a la the game against the Giants. I think the Giants are just as balanced as the Seahawks.
 
I don't know if the Titans win SU, but +9??? I love the disrespect they are getting. It will be an ugly game and nine points is too much. The Chargers won the last game but they were dominated and had to have everything go their way in the final eight minutes to win(bullshit that there was only one camera angle so the 4th and 5 'catch' couldn't be overturned which would have resulted in a 17-10 Titans win.) The Bolts have been beating AFC West teams, that doesn't say much to me. Bolts should be favored but by no more than 4.5.

I like your reasoning on Seattle/Washington and if the line goes down I will be on the 'Hawks.

TB/NYG UNDER seems like a good play.

GL Joe, sorry about the Browns. As a Phillies fan I am more than familiar with what its like to have high hopes and lose the chance on the final day. I hope the Browns win the North next year.:cheers:
 
Great to see JoeP; the two NFC home favorites are what I will be on this weekend.

Jacksonville looks good as well, but I am pretty sure I will not be playing this game.
 
When I think of TEN @SD, I'm left thinking of the MNF game where a lot of people loved TEN @DEN and Denver murdered them, even thou the final score (34-20) really doesn't show the full extent of it.

SD was far superior to DEN in that division....
 
I am a die hard skins fan and I do agree somewhat with you analysis of the game.

But as far as Dallas passing on us the first time I think that was a different case.

That game was our first without Sean Taylor (when we only thought he was out with a knee injury) and the defense hadnt officially adjusted to the fact that we were to be playing without him. Reed Doughty (who came in for Taylor) was not at all prepared to play, he is a less talented player that is going to have to be really on top of his game to make up for physical shortcomings. He wasnt prepared for that Dallas game and was exposed, however, since Sean's death Reed has been playing much better.

As well as after we lost Sean, Laron Landry was moved to the FS position which he has played much better in, while putting Reed at SS and more suited for a slower player like he is. This was not the case against Dallas the first time, we just put Reed in for Sean at FS and didnt change the whole defense because we thought Sean would be back in a week.

This is a different pass defense with Landry and Reed having swapped.

That said, I still dont particularly like my team in this game as sad as it is to me. Seattle is 33-7 at home since 03 and 7-1 this year. That is just tough.

Throughout our win streak we've jumped out to leads, if we were to fall down early against a good passing attack in a rowdy stadium I just dont know.
 
Just remember that the one game Seattle lost at home was to New Orleans, and that they got torched, both through the air and on the ground, giving up nearly 100 yards rushing to Reggie Bush of all people. That plus the fact Washington went to Seattle in the 2005 playoffs and only lost 20-10 and that was a Super Bowl year for Seattle leads me to wonder about this game.
 
Good points about Reed Doughty and the Skins, guys. I still just don't know how they stop Seattle from spreading them out. Obviously Seattle doesn't have a TO, but on the whole I would say their receiving corps is deeper than Dallas'. That may sound strange, but after TO and without Terry Glenn, I think there's a huge drop off after Crayton.

I mean, no offense Sam Hurd, but you're no Nate Burleson, frankly I'm not convinced you're D.J. Hackett at this point in your career.

Seattle can go three and four wide on every play if they want. Their o-line isn't what it was when Hutchenson was there, but I'm not convinced Washington can get any pressure without blitzing--and blitzing a QB like Hasselbeck is a recipe for problems.

Washington also isn't really built to come from behind. Todd Collins has done well with leads, but what happens when they get down by 10 on the road? I don't have a lot of faith in it.

Another thing about the Pittsburgh game that struck me this morning.

Does anybody remember the playoff game about four or five years ago where Atlanta went into Green Bay. Nobody gave Atlanta much of a chance and I'm pretty sure they were seven point dogs. Because it was Brett Farve, because it was in Lambeau, because Atlanta was a dome team.

But Green Bay was ravaged by injury at the time, particularly on the O-line. Sure enough, they couldn't protect Farve, he throws up ducks all day, and the Falcons won.

I get a somewhat similar feeling from this game. I realize people have warmed up to the Jags, but I still hear people talk about how impossible it is to go into Pittsburgh and win twice in a season (it's never been done) and how they're still the Steelers.

Thing is, if you've watched this team--and I have as they've taken my money a few times down the stretch--they're not the Steelers. Not the ones you remember. The ones you remember could run the football and stop the run. This team is relying on Najeh Davenport and hasn't stopped the run well in weeks.

They may win the game, but right now I have a tough time seeing them as the better team.
 
Going back and forth with SportsNut to follow as well.


What would ever give you that idea!

Still havent sat back and looked or thought much about these games.

Some quick points :

Both TB and Seattle sort of limped into the playoffs which I never like. TB really turned it off in the game @ SF can they simply just turn it back on? Seattle did some crazy cross country traveling to end the season and I wonder if that wares on them. they had trips to Carolina and ATL to finish .

Is Wash a team of destiny? I agree on paper we have some shortcomings with Wash but that meeting @ Dallas canno be included in discussion. That was Taylor going back to Dallas with his father in a nearby hospital in poor shape and from what I read he was an emotional wreck and it carried over on the field and whatever they did as far as in game adjustments just didnt work.

Dallas defense looks solid but again the offense closes the season looking out of sync.

Pitt as you mentioned as a team who just got to beat up down the stretch and really has to limp in. Lets not forget Big Ben couldnt play this weekend. Yeah I know he could play if it was a playoff game but thats a big sign saying he is less then 100%. I dont think Jags will beat a good team but Pitt isnt looking very good.

Have to agree with all of us making the mistake of looking to closely at that Tenny game on Sunday night. I thought we had to be impressed with the defense. How is Kaeding going to be on FG attempts? I do feel this line should be more like 7.5 but cause it looks the same at 9 they drag us on. SD pass attack still looking sluggish IMO...closer then the experts think??? Just throwing stuff out there...

NYG: Such an interesting matchup...how do they react after the NE game? Did it inspire them and bring them together? That should be a confidence builder- almsot beating the best in the NFL. They lost a few players but I have to sift through that. Still dont see Shockey as a loss cause Boss has stepped in . Shockey drops alot of balls . I get the feeling that NYG comes out strong here but again does everyone now over value them cause of what they saw on TV??

Tougher 1st round IMO then years past....more subplots then ever before...we still have time to look at it....:cheers:
 
Sportsnut!

You are the man! Agree with your subplots.

Key points-

NYG- Tampa
NyG- 7-1 on road, feeling good about their football team, a much more positive attitude about their team. I guess Tiki barber is a downer!
Tampa- Playing at home, sneaky team all year, but best team they beat this year were the Titans, lost close one to Jags, crushed by Colts. They are a fraud in my opinion. But they do have Garcia, a good D, rested and playing at home!!

WSH- Seattle

Seahags!- They can not run the football. Yes, Haselbeck has had a good year. There receivers have made plays, but there core is not the same without DJ Hackett. Their D steps up at home for sure.
WSH- Bottomline Gibbs keeps his team controlled. They are not as talented as many teams. But stick to their plan throughout a game. They will continue to keep doing what they have doing, churn yards on the ground and hit bombs on playaction. Back to good ol days for Gibbs- a team playing with a purpose!!

JAX- PIT

JAX and Pit will be a slugfest! I watched the Jags many times and they are chewing up teams. They are bigger and more physical than all teams. PIT will not roll over in this one, they are playing at home. But remember PIT has been exposed the last month of the season to the team they were last year. They need TROY P to be flying around!! HE MAKES the difference!!

SD- TENN

This game reminds me of the Jets and Chargers game 2 years ago. Chargers at home. I think the game will be low scoring, because of the Titans D and Jeff Fisher controlling the game. But the Chargers will find a way. The chargers should of lost to the titans earlier. But we all know you must finish in football. They will find a way to finish in this game. Plus it seems nobody is giving the titans a shot!! This is when the TITANS rise up with VYOUNG these last 2 years. BIG SPOT for Tits !
 
My views on this game would change somewhat if each of these teams were totally healthy, but they're not.

Now, in the case of Washington that helps them at QB simply because Jason Campbell has apparently not yet learned how to throw a TD to a WR, but the loss of Taylor can't be overlooked. Especially against a pass-first team. Also, you could hear it in their voices last week, how much it meant to them to win that final home game of the year by 21. Remember, there's nothing they can do to have another home game this year, so that win, even if Dallas sort of mailed it in, was a huge emotional drain on them--and it should have been, I applaud them for what they've accomplished.

I think of it like the Eagles last year, who won five straight to end the season. Now, yes, they won their first round playoff game, but they were at home, they looked spent in it, and had to go to OT to beat a Giants team that, apologies to their fans, they were better than.

The other thing with Seattle is that they are healthy, and even though they had that scorefest last week, they rested guys, Branch didn't play, Walter Jones didn't play, neither did Rocky Bernard. So Seattle expects to be healthy this week, and rested in key spots.

Their running game for me is only a worry because Alexander is there. For whatever reason they seemed to run much better with Morris. But with Alexander they have to split carries.

Again with NY I'm not crazy about their health, particularly if O'Hara can't go. Eli doesn't fill me with faith--and I'm not a Bucs fan, I don't think they're the cat's meow, I just think this spot is much better for them than the Giants. I think the Giants need a week off and either a home game or a Dome game.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the over hit in Tampa, though.

As for SD, I'm not convinced Tennessee is 100% healthy either, and not just VY. Hanesworth was gimpy in Indy, and I think they had two different LBs come up limping as well and needing treatment. Maybe they're fine, but look at how SD has done against teams they've played twice this year. They've handled them easily and two of them were on the road. This time they're at home.
 
Sorry I mixed up Shawn Springs and S.Taylor earlier . In regards to his ill father.

With now both Alexander and Morris in the mix does Holmgren stray from his pass happy play calling to keep everyone involved?? We both know HC are far from the smartest guys involved. Alot of times we all look at what they are doing and are like WTF?? Not saying he will change anything but it creeps into my mind.

Todd Collins has been nothing short of excellent past few weeks. I quickly dismissed the game @ NYG cause he had a few completions and the wind was ridculous thinking he actually got lucky with a few deep completions. Now after watching the guy a few games I feel like he knows what he is doing out there. Sounds silly but how many guys drop back and seem lost?? Been in Saunders system for awhile...

I really dont think Dallas laid down though. Romo played an awful lot for a meaningless game. Was it an emotional moment for the Skins....hell yeah! Something is carrying this team though and while they should miss Sean taylor this defense has played much better and aggressive past few weeks. They went to NY beat them , then went to Minny and handled them and then took care of business vs Dallas. Now while its nothing great look at Seattle's games from the SF 24-0 shutout on...

They finished 5-2 but nothing stands out to me. We start with Chi winning 30-23. Grossman 266 better the YPA and Benson 11c 89 yds. Basically SEA pulled away late but again Chi was a medicore squad this year and it took effort to beat them. I dont think there was much difference when Wash hosted them. Then @ STL not an easy place to play but Rams should have won and suffered through losing Bulger ( even SJ at crucial times)and Frerotte fumbling on the 1 yd line to end the game. Cross country to your Eagles and we both know terrible spot after almost winning @ NE. Feely had 4 picks and many blown chances to win that one late. The beat ARI 42-21 but Cards suffered massive defensive losses late in the year and played w/o Boldin. They lost 13-10 @ Carolina which they had just wrapped up the division but still CAR is terrible! They smoked Balt but who played? Troy Smith 1st start @ QB and McGahee lasted 5 carries and they lost a shootout to ATL in a meaningless effort.....there play didnt inspire me to say they are unbeatable at home.

Actually I think of the Eagles this year when I see Seattle but Eags played tougher schedule. I will say I thought 4 or 4.5 was fair but thinking about it not so sure. Look at what SEA was laying down the stretch...they do have the rest advantage but I do wonder 2 long trips past 3 weeks did it wear on them?

NYG I will need to really look at the injuries and who steps in. They are troublesome but again TB sputtering to the line calling off the dogs is concerning. As is there schedule. Quinn Gray beat them and if Campbell duidnt fuck up twice late Wash would have beat them. They barely beat TB when VY went down 13-10. They got NO early when tha team was in full hangover mode. I still feel that NYG seems better away from the stress of being home. Did NYG really have any bad losses ? Dallas twice , Pats , Minny when the Vikes were hot , GB and Wash late ..only 3-5 at home! Why would we want them at home????? SF , NYJ and Philly w/o Westbrook and an OL.

Just throw out FAT to chew on I really dont have any leans at the moment...just looking at the scenarios.....

I stand by SD playing absolutely no one at home. Really they werent even threatened ...Denver didnt want to be there on Christmas Eve , Lions off the Boys choke , the banged up Ravens , Houston w/Rosenfals and no Green and Johnson , Oak , Chi and KC who fluked them. They beat Indy but we all saw that game...Indy was shorthanded and no way SD should have been a Home dog....a playoff game with jeff Fisher and a solid defense catching 10 pts.....

...and FairmountBull....dont go giving me a big head now....I havent done anything yet.......
 
Well, let's get one thing straight right now, the Eagles should have beaten Seattle in Philly. F**king Feeley gave them 14 points then p*ssed away the game after Westbrook served up redemption for him on a silver platter.

Not that I'm still bitter about the Birds' season or anything.

The thing with Seattle is--and watch me contradict this in a paragraph--you really only want to play them at home, you don't want to go up there. They get loud and angry in the playoffs up there and though I hear what you're saying, this spot just sucks for Washington.

Also, my single biggest fear in this game is Holmgren going away from what's worked for eight weeks and going back to trying to feed Alexander. But I think he's figured it out. Without Hutch feeding Alexander only gets him FGs, not TDs. And I really think he's made the conscious decision that it's time to score TDs instead of FGs. And they've won because of it.

I've followed this team pretty closely--mostly because of the money--for the better part of the year. They had a significant change in the middle of the year philosophically that's really helped them. I truly believe that if the Skins don't get into the mid to high 20s in this game they don't win. And I just think that's going to be extremely tough on the road.

Now, here's where I contradict myself, the more I think about Dallas, the more I'm starting to think Seattle would beat them if the Giants get past TB.

I know that sounds stupid, given all that revenge Dallas must have pent up. But you know, I've seen Dallas in their revenge spots this year and I wasn't all that impressed outside of what they did to my Birds in Philly early in the season when the wheels were off that train. I also don't think TO is very healthy and if he's gimpy, I don't fear that passing attack if I'm Seattle.

Though, like I've said before, I don't thing NY gets past TB, but either way, believe it or not, I think Green Bay is going to the Super Bowl.
 
Sounds like you've got yourself locked into Seattle, Joe P. For me it's either Washington or no play, but I probably won't decide until Saturday morning. NYG-Tampa is a stay away game for me -- you're never really sure who shows up for either of these teams. I think you have to go with J'Ville over Pitt, other than being at home, what has Pitt done to make you think they could win this game? And finally just too much talent for SD I think over TN.
 
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Jeff Garcia said in a conference call with New York reporters Wednesday that he feels "over-rested" after sitting out the past six quarters.

The Bucs played it "safe" in Weeks 16 and 17 to a greater extent than any other team. "I feel restless," Garcia said. "It seems like it has been a while since I have actually played a complete game. I was disappointed about only playing a half in San Francisco (in Week 16). Coach Gruden is one of those guys where what he says stays and there is no real challenging that."
 
per sportsinsights, theres a 100% chance of rain for the seahawks game, with the wind at about 17 mph.

I'm just not sold the seahawks are that good. their schedule has been charmin the past two months and their two advantages should be neutralized. The weather might get in the way of the passing game, considering they can't run the ball even if they wanted to, and home field helps against a team that is mentally weak, but I don't think its going to phase a team like the redskins who have been through it all this season.


altho your point about a redskin letdown coming off that cowboy win is very valid. they've got to be straight drained by now. but I think they manage to keep it together for one more week and come away with the win.
 
The Seahawks are the most undervalued team this week in the playoffs. The more I read the more I understand that most have never seen this team, let alone followed them this year or for that even the past couple weeks.

How I see polls and Patrick Kerney is not the biggest aquisition this year (besides possibly Moss) confuses me. We are the quickest defense and provide the most pressure to the QB, our defensive stats back this up time and time again. Our defense is completely underated, and I am not even remotely joking when I say there is a good chance Washington will not score more then 10 points this week. That is not even touching on our home field advantage.

The loss to Atlanta was amazing for anyone who wants to take the hawks. Did anyone even watch it? I know many hawks fans who are basing their oppinion on the Washington game based on the Atlanta game, and these are people who should know what the hawks were doing. Hell Atlanta opened as a favorite, and it was no suprise to me they won, and it will be no suprise the Hawks thump Washington.

Joe, I love that pick. Of course I am a Seattle fan, but bet against them just as often as I bet on them. and have never taken them in the playoffs. with that said I am probably blinded in this one.
 
I like TB agaisnt the giants... yes the giants played one heel of a game agaisnt the pats, but they stll lost, and i think the emotion from that game is still there.. they were close anf couldnt do it... and a lot of teams this yr after playing the pats have had their let down game espcially at the end
pitt, Indy, philly balti,... all lost ATS the following week, I think the trend continues...
 
These are all very good points.

This Seattle/Washington game though is just too hard for me to put my finger on it even though I know the Skins like the back of my hand.

But the Skins being my team is another reason why I wont bet on it anyways.

I just dont know the mindset of the Seahawks coming into this thing. I dont know if my Skins will be able to stop the Hawks from spreading us out as you said Joe.

This Skins team has been so up and down I just dont know what to expect from us. We've been playing playoff games for 4 weeks now and its just tough to tell if we'll be all burnt out or not.

The team has just been through so much this season its amazing they've gotten this far. I certainly hope we can pull it off though I dont feel comfortable betting on us.
 
Blue : you have some valid points and some things I disagree with. It very well could be that Seattle is undervalued but I would think the case for that is WASH being overvalued. Of any team in the playoffs WASH is clearly the "wildcard" . On paper they dont look good and they may not even deserve to be there. Thing is they got there and Gibbs has made a career of taking backup QBs further then expected.


What has Seattle done worth a darn? Seriously show me something Imissed? First three home games where was that huge home field advantage? They struggled with TB in the OPENER despite the score as the key was Garcia and Cadillac missing some plays...and the tide turned..., barely beating Cincy and then losing to the Saints? Big deal they beat a bad Rams team minus Stephen Jackson and it was closer then the score indicated. They beat a terrible SF team 24-0 . They beat in umpressive fashion the medicore Bears by 7 . They beat in ARI in a revenge spot but Boldin and key defensive players were missing. Even Covers had an article about the injuries (12/6 ). While ARI managed to keep alot road games close they beat only STL minus Bulger and Jackson and Cincy. Oh they finished up with Balt and whatever players they pulled off the street. FAR from impressive - they played terrible teams...

So what exactly was so impressive about there play at home?? They best team they played was week 1 TB who still growing and lost some key players for awhile. After that basically garbage..

Seahawks 1st four game away they lose @ Zona , they beat the terrible SF team when it was in a funk not one of its little runs , they were shutout @ Pitt , they beat up Cle but couldnt bury them and lost in OT after the Browns rally , then take there last 4 road games . Could they have been any luckier ? If Bulger and SJackson dont get hurt they dont win cause they were getting smoked early but hung around , they traveled to Philly and beat Feely who choked the game away after a Westbrook kick return on the final possession , they lost to Carolina in a tough spot but still and they lost a meaningless game to ATL which they did try in. hasselbacl played alot longer then expected.

I dont think anyone is weighing the ATL game as anything more then a typical week 17 game. Also I know you were talking to Hawks fans . I do wonder if traveling 2500 miles twice in 3 weeks does have some sort of effect here. Does that concern you?

I do agree I like there defense it is very underrated , off topic they were a sleeper pick for me in fantasy football this year. However what stats mean anything when they didnt play anyone? What tough offense did they slow down??? Not saying Wash is tough by any means but who did Sea play well against?

I could be mistaken but I think SEA home field edge is hype at this point. It exists but not to the extent some believe. Also WASH played @ the Meadowlands in terrible conditions and won.

I will be the first to admit I am not sure how you cap Wash and will agree 3.5 is kinda lite saying these teams are even. Wash has something going on and you wonder if it can continue?

I continue to feel that these games are very tough cause we have serious questions about some of these teams......If you can shed some light Please do.....I am playing contrarian and voicing my concerns:cheers:
 
El Mago said:
I like TB agaisnt the giants... yes the giants played one heel of a game agaisnt the pats, but they stll lost, and i think the emotion from that game is still there.. they were close anf couldnt do it... and a lot of teams this yr after playing the pats have had their let down game espcially at the end
pitt, Indy, philly balti,... all lost ATS the following week, I think the trend continues...
Click to expand...

Anoither toughie for me. Its a valid point but I think there is some logic to it. well not sure about the Indy game after ....baltimore lost in about as most heartbreaking fashion as one could and the difference was they faced Indy shorthanded w/o both starting CB's , with Philly a team underacheiving played there best game but still it was there backup QB , I checked Indy was shorthanded in that game @ SD , Pitt was also banged up and had to play a very good jax team. I dont think any of the letdowns were against bad teams.

Now my question is did NY come together after that win? They lost a few bodies but some were early in the game. The kid Hixon proved to be a sparkplug in the kick game and TB is complaining about there long layoff and rust. What really strikes with both TB and Seattle is how they really beat no one.....

:cheers:
 
I think one of the hardest things to do for any team is pick out the meaningful games. That is, when looking back over the schedule, which games matter to look at--which games mattered for the team at the time and matter now in looking forward.

I pretty much discount at least the first six games of almost every team's schedule at this point in the season. Because that's not the team that's on the field right now nine times out of ten. Occasionally a team will start out as who they are, have some injuries, and finish healthy or back to who they always were, but generally the season isn't long enough for that.

In the Seahawks case, again, I've followed them pretty closely (somewhat shocking even to me), and they played the first six to eight games of this season very differently than they have the second half of the season.

Holmgren made a choice, a very clear, dramatic change after watching his team struggle to score points for weeks. He finally decided to hell with balance or cheat sheets, we're just going to do what works, and that's using the pass to set up the run--and when they run, mixing it up with both Morris and Alexander.

With Seattle the games I look at as important were:
Week 7 at home vs. St. Louis before the bye - W
Week 10 at home vs. SF off the Cleveland loss - W
Week 11 at home vs. Chicago - W
Week 12 at St. Louis - W
Week 13 at Philly - W (grrrr)
Week 14 at home vs. Arizona - W
Week 16 at home vs. Baltimore - W

Now, why. A couple of reasons. I throw out the Cleveland game because it was a double-decker sandwich game, out of conference, between two division games and off a bye. Not to mention that, you can call it bias, but Cleveland is a better team than Seattle. The Browns win that game nine times out of ten this year if it's played in Cleveland. And that's not hindsigt either, I had the Browns in that game, and in the 2nd half. They were in a better spot and, really, they're just a better overall team.

That aside, that game was meaningless to Seattle. They knew, given the state of their division, that if they just focused on winning their division games, all very winable, they were going to the playoffs.

That's why I look at the ones I do. I also look at the Chicago game because it is a good gauge of 'will they immediately let down off a division win' and I look at the Baltimore game to see if, coming home, they can rebound off a disappointing loss and take care of business.

They pass all these tests.

Now, you can say that's selective, but again, look at the games I'm overlooking. At Carolina, a flight all the way across the country for an early game that doesn't matter at all off the game that basically guaranteed them the division. At Cleveland which I already discussed and Week 17.

Last, at Philly, which I didn't bring up, but even though Philly gave them that game, that they took it is a check mark, albeit small in their favor.

In addition, all these games were played after Holmgren's sea change in philosophy.

With this all said, doing this same thing with a team like TB, what I'm not crazy about is that they basically haven't played a meaningful game in over four weeks.
 
Joe , I am on board with you in the change of philosophy and well aware of it but what exactly did it do for the team? Take them from bad to medicore?

I agree long season tough to weigh early games and understand what exactly would be considered meaningful. To me they are all meaningful in some form. They all need to be weighed.

Now I dont agree with your meaningful games but yet I do understand your omissions(sp?).

What was so special about STL ? An 0-6 team outscored 81 -13 in three road games whose lone TD was on special teams. We are talking about a playoff team and saying that a good win was this situation? How do you lose to a team who has ZERO TDS in 3 games?

Same applies for beating SF . For the most part a terrible team.

What is good about beating Chi ? 7-9 & 3-5 away? Sure Chi stole games @ Philly and GB but that left only winning @ Oak. Who was this team challenging on the road? Plus we know about the injuries they dealt with. So all Chi did was hang around twice and pull away with wins...6pt favs they win by 7.

Saying they won @ STL is a CRIME. We all saw the fumble by the backup QB and most agree if Bukger plays they dont choke back the lead and Stephen Jackson I believe missed some time which amounted Leonard trying for short yardage and failing. SJ is better at short yardage spots.

philly really is the same as STL almost a CRIME to say they won in Philly. So what can we say this SEA team will not beat itself? It was the AJ Feeley Eagles off the defeat @ NE. Westbrook gets a big return and Feely blows it. When is narrowly beating a backup QB worthwhile?

Arizona was done a few key defensive players and Boldin was out with Fitz I believe less then 100%. So they were less then full strength. They had revenge as well. Hell they had recently lost at home to SF!! Oh that game 2 weeks later vs ATL that went to OT sure doesnt make the Cards shine , does it?

Seriously including Balt is insane! Troy F'n Smith in his 1st start! McGahee lasted 5 carries , starting CBs out and so on. All they had to do was show up.


I cant argue much with the Browns game. It was a tough spot for SEA but dont good teams overcame tough spots even occassionally? One thing I disagree with was and I think you will agree is that CLE offense was playing good and not the defense something that flipped in the last few games. I seriously dont buy that SEA said the game didnt mean anything and played at any les then 100%. It was a sandwich game but they didnt punt it.

The basic problem I have is your dismissing that these opponents for the most part are terrible. Balt just lost @ Miami and your saying thats a key win for Seattle the next week? When there lone win away was by 2 pts in SF! Its about as close to a sure thing as there is.....

Again with Carolina I agree a flat spot but whats the excuse for not scoring till the 4th quarter? One of two Carolina home wins. Still cant they overcome a tough spot?? Even with ATL Hasselback did play into the 3rd quarter.

Really I am not sure of my purpose here. I am not trying to convince u that WASH is the play or my play. Skins are a toughies . I have no idea what I am doing yet.

Discrediting SEATTLE...maybe for the secound round if it gets to it. . It's more a matter of seeing SEA for what they are ..a team whose best win was vs an 8-8 Eagle team playing its backup QB.

19-45 is the record on the road for the teams SEA played at home.

The only team at 4-4 was NO and they lost that one albeit early.

Maybe my discussion is offbased cause I not focusing on finding a winner in Sea and Wash.....

bedtime for me....
 
No, I know exactly what you're doing and saying, and that is that Seattle isn't a very good football team.

Which, in the grand scheme of things, I agree with.

But specifically in the NFC they're a decent team. A second tier team, on that I believe now can actually beat a Dallas or a GB if they play a mistake-free game.

I didn't see them that way earlier in the season.

I still don't think they go to the SB, but I think they get through this round and would have a chance against Dallas assuming they stick with their guns by throwing the ball.

Here's what the above wins tell me.

They tell me they took care of business when they had to.

Did they do it against bad teams, absolutely. But let's go back to my Browns, if the Browns do exactly what this Seattle team did, Cleveland is catching nine in San Diego this weekend.

Fact is, it's harder than it seems to beat bad teams. The ones that do it go to the playoffs, the ones who don't stay home.

Again, I'm not saying what they did makes Seattle this great team, but what's important to me is seeing that one, when they were supposed to beat someone important to them, they did it. They also covered in each of those spots if I'm not mistaken.

They didn't have let downs in important spots, they didn't struggle with bad teams at home, they just went out and beat them.

That, in this spot, is important to me. And I'm not trying to make the case for this being a huge play or anything, just the longer rationale as to why I like Seattle.

I see this spot as Seattle having home field vs. a team that has to fly across the country, that's just had five extremely long, grueling weeks. They're healthy and rested in what I believe are the right spots, and in looking back over their schedule from the part of the season I think matters most they seem to do well in these spots.

Now, the weather is a different matter. I've seen the forecast as well which seems to vary between a 70% and 90% chance of rain. Light rain doesn't bother me. A downpour, though, that bothers me and I'm not sure what I'll do.
 
El Mago said:
I like TB agaisnt the giants... yes the giants played one heel of a game agaisnt the pats, but they stll lost, and i think the emotion from that game is still there.. they were close anf couldnt do it... and a lot of teams this yr after playing the pats have had their let down game espcially at the end
pitt, Indy, philly balti,... all lost ATS the following week, I think the trend continues...
Click to expand...

I agree on TB here. Not only does that trend have a little logic but Gruden is also trying to save his job. And had it not been for Jeff Garcia, I dont think he'd be here today. Their defense is back too, that much I can say. The last 2 games they played, Gruden almost so much as said it didnt matter to him if they lost, so dont put too much weight on them. TB will be just as inspired going into the playoffs as NY was playing NE. Should be a good one and I want to look at the total for this game also. Remember, TB has a QB now than can put points up and Eli will find a way to put his points on the board also, however, I think this will be a defensive game. The total has been set too high at 39.5 in my opinion. I'm leaning TB and Under for now.

As far as J'Ville...hands down the Jags. This is one game in which I know who Im going with. Pitt will not be able to run on this team, zippo, zero, 0. And if Jax makes you one dementional, game over.

Leaning slightly on Seattle. Cant get a good read on this one yet. *bangs head on desk*
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
When I think of TEN @SD, I'm left thinking of the MNF game where a lot of people loved TEN @DEN and Denver murdered them, even thou the final score (34-20) really doesn't show the full extent of it.

SD was far superior to DEN in that division....
Click to expand...



O how my wallet remembers that game
 
If O'Hara's out I think that is a huge loss for the Giants. I don't find Eli to be that stable anyway, and you take away the leader of that line, his center, on the road against a Monte Kiffin defense and his chances for success shrink considerably.
 
jeeze, too much damn stuff to read. But I did take some time to write up a little info for those who dont know the hawks. It is way longer then I wanted it, and kinda all over the place. will get it up shortly.
 
Yeah, that's the problem when SN and I get going, I can be like reading War & Peace.

Seahawks line dropping, by the way, down to -3.5 even, when it gets to three I shall buy.
 
Now, here's where I contradict myself, the more I think about Dallas, the more I'm starting to think Seattle would beat them if the Giants get past TB.

I know that sounds stupid, given all that revenge Dallas must have pent up. But you know, I've seen Dallas in their revenge spots this year and I wasn't all that impressed outside of what they did to my Birds in Philly early in the season when the wheels were off that train. I also don't think TO is very healthy and if he's gimpy, I don't fear that passing attack if I'm Seattle.

They are 13-3, I think they did just fine in their so called "revenge" spots. Did you forget TO came back from a broken leg for your eagles and was the best player on the field for that game?

Washington's roller coaster ride of a season comes to an end tomorrow. They wont be able to get pressure on Hasslebeck without blitzing. Their past 4 games they have played teams that couldnt pass, so they stacked the box up and forced QB's like Rex, Orton, Eli, Romo and Tavares to try and beat them thru the air. This wont work against seattle.
 
Sorry guys, I dont know what the hell came over me.

Alright, before I get into this there should be a couple things known. I have not really capped games for a while. I normally let line movement and betting action determine the side I will play. There is something to be said for people picking one team to win with no incentive (i.e. a spread or ml) and the line being posted completely opposite what you would expect, but I will eventually get into that.


Second thing you should know is that I am a homer through and through. In fact, I will be in attendance on Saturday when the Hawks play the Skins. With that said let me talk about one of the so-called rules of betting: that you should not ever wager on a game where your team is playing. HAHA…. That is BS! Why would you not wager on games where you supposedly know the team better then most. But, anyways that’s what I think. If you can take out bias for your team and really look at the strengths and weaknesses and say is this team better or worse then most people think, you should be able to make money just by knowing if the team is underrated or overrated. Please excuse all the we’s and our’s, sometimes they slip out. Ok, now with that out of the way I will say this may be all over the place.


I look into my paper, I read in Seattle blogs, and I hear from people who I thought were diehard sports fans: I give Washington the slight edge in this game. Why, in fact why are the hawks favored only by 3.5 points? Well for starters the Atlanta game, which I don’t really think anyone watched or cared about, was a game people thought we would win easily and people especially around here were shocked that we lost. Yet Atlanta opened as a favorite, no shock they won, especially when Seattle was more concerned about HEALTH, something they forgot about a little last year going into the last game.


There was a point in the season when even I thought Arizona might give us a good run this year. We were sitting at 4-4, and Holmgren comes out and says publicly we are not doing it on the ground prepare for our air it out offense. What happened next? Well we went on a 5 game tear, winning road games we would never have won before. We won 6 of our last 8 and imo if the Atlanta game mattered at all it would have been 7 of our last 8. Was it all the new passing offense, not exactly. It was a new kind of attitude. I believe a lot about distractions and focus determine the outcomes of events much more so then the stats people pour over for hours. Psychological factors are HUGE. Listening to the Hawks during the 2<SUP goog_docs_charIndex="2542">nd</SUP> half of the season I saw a team I had not seen ever. Hasselback is humble. Anyone who knows him or the Hawks should be shocked. This is the guy that said in one playoff game: we’ll take the ball and score a TD. The players are 100% behind Holmgren. One of the quotes I like best went something like this: We now trust in whatever play coach calls, whether it be the right one or the wrong one. This is huge, any sports psychologist will tell you that if you stop worrying about whether things are correct or not and just worry on executing you will be far better. He wants to lead guys, he wants to play in the biggest play of the biggest game. Players that can learn to love big moments instead of become anxious do much better because of it. This team was putting up numbers just as good as any team during its 5 game winning streak, who knew?


Ok, so our running game has been very suspect. Ask any real Seattle fan and they would have told you years ago Shaun is a little girl. He does not like getting hit, and even more so was very arrogant after his huge years with a HOF o-line. But, he has gotten massive criticism from the fans and it is now very apparent it was his O-line doing a majority of the work a couple years ago. However the last two seasons have really humbled him and like Hasselbeck he has become a different player. Not the “great” back people saw in the past but rather a more humble back who knows his role is now to serve in an offense designed to pass first.


I’ll bet most people did not know this was Hasselbeck’s best year so far. It had to be with no other offense to speak of. We still need a quality TE, and our running game was anything but consistent. So what does the Hass go out and do? Only strap the team on his back and throw for a career high in TDs, attempts, completions, and yards. On top of that he was able to bring Engram and Burleson into the fray with Hacket and Branch being injured for many times during the year. Branch is a legit #1 receiver when healthy. Hacket has come on as a great WR and some called him our #1. Engram who has always been steady as a rock set franchise records in receptions and yards this year. And Burleson who also does a lot of special teams work has great hands and is fast as hell, and came out of the top sports high school in the state of Washington, my own. So you know he’s good……lol. But seriously these are 4 receivers who are pretty much all at their peaks in their careers, with them all there I think we can pass on anyone any day.


“That place has to be miked up because the last time we played there, it was ridiculous- we couldn’t hear ourselves talk. For a Stadium that small, it cant be that loud.” -Washington FB Mike Sellers (from Washington State)


Haha, we’ve heard it before. Right now I can tell you, most people watching the game will not be ready for this home field atmosphere. 2 years ago the Giants had 11 false start penalties and actually complained to the league. Between the CONSTANT pressure the defense provides and the noise of the stadium you will rack up penalties and many tackles for a loss. See, when you have fans that know they make a difference they cheer louder, and we know we cause penalties and confusion. That is the reason why college basketball is the number one sport influenced by fan noise, not because of the amplification, but because people cheer loud the entire game, it does affect road teams.


Gibbs is a legend and he probably affects this line more then some of the main players. But, come on….. Holgren is the much better coach right now. He has an awesome staff, and because I don’t know much about Washington coaches I cannot compare, but I will say imo they have done a really good job getting good quality experienced coaches on staff. A lot has been made of the Skins this year, and they have had huge distractions and Gibbs has seemed to help the team hold it together. I give him big time accolades for what he has done with the skins, but like I said above, the better coaches right now are on the Seattle sideline. Hell had Seattle not switched gears like it did when it was 4-4, we maybe sitting at home this weekend. I’ll bet almost know one knows Holmgren is just 2 victories behind Gibbs all-time, thus making him # 2 amoung active coaches. One thing no other coach has done, that Holgren has, is win at least 75 games with two different teams. Washington may have better paid assistant coaches, but when push comes to shove I would rather have Seattle’s staff especially with its experience.


There is something to say about a tragedy like the one that befell the Redskins this year, losing both a member of their family and arguable their best player. The team rallies together like never before and coaches really become major influences on the players. However, when I look at Washington I see a team playing as some have said with more emotion. That is great, but a team with focus will usually beat a team with emotion. I see a lot of distractions with that team, and even if they are causing the team to feel more motivated or emotional, they are distractions nonetheless. The biggest thing Gibbs did this year was take responsibility for the loss following Taylor’s death. It sounds bad to say, but if anything good came out of Taylor’s death it is how Washington has come together as a huge family. If you know your brothers are out there doing all they can to win, you will play your hardest.


Washington is overrated. That is undeniable. Yes they are playing well, and yes they might be the hottest team coming into the playoffs, but they needed to be just to get in. Other teams were worried about resting players and making sure there were no major injuries. This is the feel good story of the year, and Seattle, well who is Seattle. People follow Seattle by the box score is the best way to sum it up. When you watch how dominant our players are in their individual matchups it becomes apparent how good Seattle is. Washington is coming in off beating a Dallas team that was RESTING PLAYERS, and had TO hurt. Seattle just lost to Atlanta, and gave up over 40 points? And I have said Seattle has an awesome Defense the best in the league in some areas. Whats going on?


OK time for personel…..


I am not kidding when I say our defense will be dominating. We have a bend but don’t break attitude, meaning we like to put pressure on the QB all game even if it means we give up some longer plays here and there. Our defense is stalwart when it comes to the red zone. The biggest defensive free agent acquisition this year is almost unknown. Patrick Kearney is probably the best Seattle defender this year in one of the most talented groups in the league, yet he is not voted as good as London Fletcher? Kearney is averaging almost 1 sack a game and is getting multiple blockers. Why is this the case…..?


Lofa Tatupu
Julian Peterson
Leroy Hill.


Underrated is an understatement. From top to bottom that group of linebackers is the best in the league, and young too. Tatupu has once again been the number one tackler on the team now 3 years in a row and is one of the best Linebackers in the game, he will continue to grow into a multiple pro bowler (oh wait he already is) and set huge marks for this defense. Peterson, also a pro bowler, creates the most pressure for QBs from any LB I have seen. The guy truly turns into an animal when he plays, he is long extremely fast and strong as just about any linebacker out there. While they are young though, they are experienced, heading to the playoffs and super bowl even multiple times. We have playoff veterans at almost every position and the new guys have tons of people to help them keep their focus for this game. When you are constantly going into the post-season you begin to recognize how to go further.


This takes us to our secondary which has turned from the joke of the league a few years ago into something people are measuring themselves too. I actually heard one comment on a MNF game about some CB not being a Marcus Trufant…… a few years ago I would never have believed that would ever be said. Imo, this is the best secondary we have had in many many years. We started off the year with two new additions; both would turn out to be our starting safeties in Deon Grant and Brian Russel. Honestly to have even one guy in our secondary make a pro bowl with how much pressure we exert up front is amazing. The pressure on these guys to contain and make plays with no one behind them is amazing, and imo they have done great this year and been the cap on the bend but don’t break attitude. We have the speed and athleticism to keep up with Randal El and Moss, believe me. However I think they will beat us a few times, but again I don’t think we will let them get far away enough for them to make a monster TD. Much more concentration is on Portis and Moss, then the Hawks D. In fact some have even said suspect, well there will be nothing suspect about the way they play on Saturday. I will be surprised if they score more then 10 points. Cooley might be the biggest thing we have to look for especially with the way we blitz from all over the field. Cooley is the type of TE that gets open and makes the defense crazy. Which is why Seattle will need to communicate and know who has his coverage.


When I say bend but don’t break, I mean it. We allow many more passes and runs to take place with how our defenses attacks the other side, instead of sitting back just trying to prevent. We think of it in terms of expected value…lol. If we can get a good loss or make the other team confused and have penalties we can allow some plays for decent yardage and still own the field position battle. Plus there is something huge to be said in terms of on field motivation when your team is constantly making big time defensive plays, which Seattle does almost better then any team. Our secondary has the league least TDs given up, for a team that year in and year out is right up at the top of the league in sacks…. I mean come on that is crazy.


Todd Collins is playing phenomenal, but he is playing some of the best football he has ever played, I will take nothing away from this. But, in the last 4 weeks of the year he did not see a defense like this one. He has had no INTs in the last 4 games. If he struggles coming out of the gate he could lose a lot of his confidence and the game could be decided very early. However if they find a niche and are able to pick apart the blitzes it could be a different game then I am thinking. But, I think the pressure and noise will cause the skins to come out a half step behind the hawks. Hell the guy has never started a playoff game, he is playing out of his mind and it will all crash on Saturday. Collins is the guy who has seemingly turned the skins on end and led them to a playoff berth. But this is only his 5<SUP goog_docs_charIndex="13475">th</SUP> game this year. Last start before that: ummm a decade ago? Yep 1997. So, ultimately not too much experience despite his veteran status in the league, against one of the most play


You want to know how much the home field affects how this team. In the last 3 seasons, opponents average almost 3 false starts a game. The next closest team over that period is Minnesota almost a full half false start per game lower…. That is huge when you consider that teams only average about 2 false starts a game. Joe Gibbs even said, “The good news is we made the playoffs, the bad news is we’re going to Seattle….” Seattle is excited to play this game, Washington is also excited but at the same time would rather be facing some other team some other place. Also to come into play is the inexperience of the Washington O-line. They are starting two newer players at the right side that are both young (one is a rookie) and have limited experience this year.


The weather is also a factor brought up week after week when the Hawks play at home. Do people not know we live in pretty much constant rain here from fall to spring. If it rains it will probably be a light rain and last most of the game, that is the weather in this city, ALL THE TIME. Now, think about this in terms of another sport, Golf. A golfer who plays in bad weather all the time and loves playing in it because they think they are better prepared to play in it, will do much better then the person who comes to the round unsure how he will play do to the weather. Seattle thrives on a little nasty weather, we have an open-air stadium that just filters the wind and nasty through it like it is supposed to be bad. We will come into this game loving the entire atmosphere from the nasty weather to the hostile fans, Washington will not.


Special Teams wise, there is no better punter/kicker combo in the league. Plackemeir is a phenomenal punter and his stats often do not touch how well he can pin a team back. Josh Brown through the last couple years has been a rock in a league of flimsy kickers and has time and time again knocked through the clutch kick to win a game. He is on a streak right now and only hit a slump when he was having problems with a holder this year. He can make the 50+ and is money on the short ones. Plus Brown is the best tackling kicker in football imo (I have not heard of too many, maybe Janakowski with his size), his biggest hit of the year was overshadowed by some other major hit in a bigger situation the same week. He has said he loves to hit, and it is not uncommon to see him leading the team down on a kickoff or being in the fray on punts. Return wise this is a toss up, Washington has awesome returners especially with Randel El but Seattle’s have done a little better. But on the opposite side Washington has a little better coverage this year. I’d say special teams for both teams should play pretty well.


Now on to the offense and Washington Defense. I have already written way too much so this will be shorter. This is kinda weird, because on one side it was a phenomenal year for Hasselbeck, but on the other side, the running game struggled tremendously. I think it is fair to say that should Alexander rush for close to 100 yards, we will have one of the better games this year from one of our backs. Will this happen, maybe, the hawks O-line has gotten much better from the early part of the season when they had to deal with two major losses, they have buckled down though and have really come together, and Holgren says he really likes the way this unit is coming together down the stretch. Well what does this mean? Better rushing for the hawks, our passes are so short normally that pass blocking is not as tough for us as it would be for a spread offense. However, we won 10 games this year with a very poor running game. And despite how it looks, we can run the ball too, and if not hell most of our short passes are pretty much runs anyways.


The thing I also like that is not getting the hype, is that despite Washington having a very formable defense, they are much better suited for a drag it out game of opponents running on them. We scrapped that weeks ago. I will be honest, I don’t know as much as I should on this defense, I know they are good and have been playing phenomenal since Taylor’s death. We will have to watch out for Fletcher and Carter I know as both of them apply pressure and make tackles. But we have a decent O-line and Hasselbeck is one of the best and most playoff hardened QBs in the league after multiple playoff runs.


In terms of our Wide outs it should be something to note, that Shaun Springs was a Seahawk early in his career. And now he is returning to face arguably the best passing attack in the NFC. Should be interesting. I would be shocked if we did not pass it to the Tightend on the first play of the game, I am sure we do this over 50% of games. But, both our backs now are catching a lot more passes, which is just as good as a run, plus allows more options for the QB, probably why more and more good coaches are turning to passing more and more, I am definitely seeing a major move away from the smash it down their throat rushing team. And it is not bad teams moving this direction. We may also see Senaca Wallace this game, and when he comes in expect the unexpected. BTW it does say QB by his name, but don’t be fooled he will probably catch a ball this game if he comes in.


In terms of other stuff there is a lot favoring the Hawks, such as them being set as a favorite when you don’t even have a unified Seattle saying they will win, let alone the rest of the country. What do you think when you think of Seattle: a team I don’t know too much about, decent team, but the just gave up over 40 points to Atlanta, and lost too.
What do you think about Washington: 4-0 to end the season and hugely motivated. There is nothing like a Seattle game at home, even during poor years we do well at home. Imo this team is in the top 3 in the league in terms of home field adv. It seems like such a difference between how we play home and away, especially in past years, that I start looking each week if they are home or away when considering a bet. I don’t think I have bet on them on the road ever or against them at home, I know that to be true. I cannot overstate how much effect the noise and atmosphere has on the game.


Wow, that is a lot, and mainly concentrates on the Hawks side. I have not seen a team this year, barring the pats and colts, who should come into a Seattle home field playoff game and be anything less then 3.5 point favorites. In other words I think Seattle would beat any team at home in the playoffs except possibly the pats or colts. The next week on the road we need a lot more then what we normally do on the road. But, we need to concentrate on the business at hand and let the rest fall as it does. All in all this team has a tremendous number of playmakers everywhere on the field and picked up a completely new mindset at the midway point in the season. This team has all it needs for a win against Washington this week, a win that imo will be controlled by the home team for just about all the game. This was far too long and for me, someone who never caps teams really anyways. Time to get ready for the game, I’ll be painted up. I’ll get a picture of last time here soon, need to find it.
 
Did you forget TO came back from a broken leg for your eagles and was the best player on the field for that game?

By 'that game' you mean the Super Bowl, and you mean the leg that Roy Williams broke, right?

=)

No, I remember it very well and, well, let's not get me started on that Super Bowl. Grrglhrumph.

Here's my problem with Dallas, though I think they're the best team in the NFC, what they don't do is what I like to see really great teams do. That is, really great teams that I put my money on.

They don't seem to really put it on people when they should. I think of that Detroit game, I think of the Philly game at home that they lost outright. Frankly, I think they coasted for the last month of the season which is fine 'if' you can flip the switch and turn it back on.

I'm not sure they can, and shockingly enough, I think Seattle could beat them.

TB or NY, though, I highly doubt. Especially NY.
 
I dont want to add to the clutter but I for one appreciate the effort Blue. Later tonight when I get time I will certainly read that...Joe has it right dont get us going we are the Kudlow and Kramer of the sports handicapping world!
 
Joe has it right dont get us going we are the Kudlow and Kramer of the sports handicapping world!

Man, is that the truth. Of course, now I just need to figure out who's who.

=)
 
I think the best reasons to bet Seattle are EDizzle's that the Skins have been facing mostly run oriented teams, which they can dominate and that the Seahawks do have a deeper corps of recievers. About Edizzle's though, I'd say the Giants are just as balanced as the Seahawks, they're much, much better rushing and not too far behind passing IMO. That might sound ridiculous, but the Giants played a way tougher schedule, SEA's is soo ridiculously bad like SN has been detailing.
The Skins defensive weakness is definitely the CB depth, Springs has been great and Smoot has been really good surprisingly since Rodgers has gone down. No one has really been able to spread them out, this is their advantage over the Giants, but I think Williams is gonna make the Seahawks beat them on the ground. Something's gonna have to give, either Holmgren is gonna have to even out his play calling, or will drop an extra guy everytime. I guess that's pretty obvious, but Gregg Williams is one of the smartest DCs in the NFL and since the Seahawks have an unbalanced offense, he has a clear advantage.

About this being a letdown spot off an emotional win, I compeltely disregard that with this team, since basically every game to end the season has been the exact same type of game; coming off an emotional win, on the road, playing a team that is fighting for its playoff life. And there is the fact that Joe Gibbs has never lost a wildcard game. People have given him a lot of shit throughout the season, before the streak obviously, but there is no better coach in making sure this team will be ready to play Saturday.
 
I wouldn't call it a let down spot for the Skins, it's the playoffs, it's tough for that to be a let down. However, I do think that you can only play at your highest level for so long before, despite your best effort, you just can't do it.

I really look at the Skins like the Eagles last year. The Eagles should have crushed NY at home in the first round of the playoffs, but they just couldn't. They were spent, they needed some time off and they barely survived that game.

If this game was in Washington it would be one thing, but all the way across the country on six days rest? Tough sledding.

All right, now I'm going to go read Blue's treatise.
 
this may be a mess, but I want to respond to some of this, but have no time to wait, gotta take off soon. so here it goes. I believe that I am only qualified, in my own little mind, to talk about the hawks game, besides I already know who I like in the other games, without having to go through that long mess again. I find line movement and smart money type plays the most effiecient and profitable form of capping. But alas we cant keep the hawks hidden all year long. again sorry for the "I"s and the "we"s and whatever else makes me look like a huge homer.... I am, but I also know this team better and what they are capable of doing, or atleast I tell myself that. and these quotes come straight down the list, sorry did not distinguish them.

Washington has played great the last few weeks, so great that the line keeps going down, down, down.

i just took them at -3.5 +105.

Which is totally fine with me because I think Seattle is going to beat the p*ss out of this team. Here's why.

Very well put I might say.


Really, what I think you have are sort of skewed results in these four wins. People say they're on fire, but they were on fire against entirely one dimensional teams. I don't think the Skins have played a decent passing team in six weeks, and the last time they did it was on the road, at Dallas, and they got eaten up.

This is really the key, when we say no running over here, we really mean it. We love to get the backs out wide or a little hook pass to get 4-5 yards, they really work like rushes, especially when you have someone like Hass to get the ball out.


Now they have to fly across the country to play in Seattle which is a horrible place to have to go to

This is something I honestly did not even think about in terms of distance. anyone have numbers on travel accross time zones? or what time Washington got into Seattle. (for their sakes I hope they already have)

I don't see how Washington stops that particularly, and this sucks to say, but without Sean Taylor in the lineup. They couldn't stop Dallas when they did it, hell they couldn't stop Philly when they did it in Washington, so why should they be able to do it now?

And imo Seattle passing at this point is better then either of them.


I like Seattle here and I like the over 40 so long as the weather holds up. Something like 27-17, 24-17, 27-14 feels right to me. I do think Washington can score, maybe even getting into the low 20s, but I think they're going to give up more than people think in this spot.

i like the under, but only because I think our defense will have a major chip on our shoulder. They are our bread and butter, and it is getting pushed under the rug, for our bipolar offense and Washington's Defense.

I don't see Deion Branch or anyone else in the same neighborhood as TO, they're all OK. Plus, the weather should be pretty awful in Seattle this Saturday, a la the game against the Giants.

you are correct, no one is near T.O. on this team. But, even if they were you would never know. Our two top WR (branch and hacket) only played 2.5 games together all year. This is a huge plus to two WR who need the catches in Burleson and Engram. We have depth and imo the top passing attack now in the league. (i.e. dont look at the passing stats from the first 8 games, but concentrate on when we moved in with a new offense.)

That plus the fact Washington went to Seattle in the 2005 playoffs and only lost 20-10 and that was a Super Bowl year for Seattle leads me to wonder about this game.

They only scored 10 points to a defense that was supposed to get torched that day. imo this defense is much more complete then that one, alas my thoughts are much the same. Our passing game is much better now, and we have much more depth at WR. Our rushing game is not anywhere near where it was. But, we have gotten better in so many areas, and only come down in one imo. The one major difference between that team and this one: Hawks got HF all the way I believe, this year not so much. But, i like the attitude of this team, and think this home game will be a test, but one we can and will control from start to finish.

Both TB and Seattle sort of limped into the playoffs which I never like

imo winning road games to end the season (something Seattle does not do), and going 6 of last 8 is not quite limping. If the atlanta game mattered at all it would be 7 of the last 8. I see what you are saying about only winning 1 of the last 3 games, but if we care about Atlanta it is 2 of last 3 games and no one says anything. This Atlanta game is a huge thorn in the side of Washington bettors. Had Seattle won against arguably the worst team in the league, they may be almost 7 point favs imo.

Seahags!- They can not run the football. Yes, Haselbeck has had a good year.

stats-wise the best he has had in his career.

was a huge emotional drain on them--and it should have been, I applaud them for what they've accomplished.

yes and so has the entire season

but there core is not the same without DJ Hackett.

I think we should have everyone, from what I am seeing. and this makes us more healthy then we have been all season. Plus the injuries allowed us to add depth to the WR position, depth that is probably utilized more then any other position in football.

The other thing with Seattle is that they are healthy, and even though they had that scorefest last week, they rested guys, Branch didn't play, Walter Jones didn't play, neither did Rocky Bernard. So Seattle expects to be healthy this week, and rested in key spots.

you are the first person I have talked to that knows this. lol, not really but seems like it.

With now both Alexander and Morris in the mix does Holmgren stray from his pass happy play calling to keep everyone involved??

They have both been there through the season, both are very humble right now and no Holmgren will not work to get people carries. I think what may be interesting is if the hawks do get up a little early and then we try and jam the run down their throats, hell we get a little light in the running game and it is that much better to open the field for passing. Also tackling the next paragraph about seattle's winning streak in the 2H of the season, some of those games we would not have won in the past on the road. Imo us just winning on the road was tremendous.

Well, let's get one thing straight right now, the Eagles should have beaten Seattle in Philly. F**king Feeley gave them 14 points then p*ssed away the game after Westbrook served up redemption for him on a silver platter.

yep was on philly too.

Also, my single biggest fear in this game is Holmgren going away from what's worked for eight weeks and going back to trying to feed Alexander. But I think he's figured it out. Without Hutch feeding Alexander only gets him FGs, not TDs. And I really think he's made the conscious decision that it's time to score TDs instead of FGs. And they've won because of it.

This paragraph whether you know it or not is what I see when I see good coaches. Atleast moving that direction, hell some teams are even doing madden type plays with portis I believe doing the slide not to score. Passing more and going for it more. at least thats the trend I see. But, I am very confident holgren will not go back to that.

Now, here's where I contradict myself, the more I think about Dallas, the more I'm starting to think Seattle would beat them if the Giants get past TB.

Dallas will not make the Superbowl. The most unfocused team in football. Great players, but too many distractions to go all the way.

per sportsinsights, theres a 100% chance of rain for the seahawks game, with the wind at about 17 mph.

sounds like a normal seattle sunday, we will still air it out no doubt. Washington maybe affected, but Seattle uses a spread of the west coast offense for a reason, short dump offs to backs and TEs. We dont care about the weather, we play better in it because the other teams do not.

home field helps against a team that is mentally weak, but I don't think its going to phase a team like the redskins who have been through it all this season.

when you are riding high or down in the dumps, those are the two times when you are mentally weakest. but, the actual noise does make it increbily hard to hear. moreso then Washington has ever heard before, hell they are calling out the fans and stadium this week.... big nono


gotta run, will try and respond to the rest if I can.
 
Nice write-up, Blue.

One other minor thing to think about with the Seahawks which matters less seeing that Campbell is out, but Jim Mora, now on the Seahawks staff, played this Washington team late in the season last year in Atlanta. They beat them by 10.

Now, again, that doesn't mean a ton because not only are the teams different, his defense isn't going up against Campbell as he did last year.

That said, any extra preparation that you've done, any experience you've had helps.

Oh, I also agree with you, Blue, you need a TE. I didn't like Stevens because of the drops, but my suggestion would be to hope Seattle tries to bring in LJ Smith in the offseason. If you can keep him on the field he's a stud and it would just make that Seattle spread harder to defend.
 
Other news, Deion Branch didn't practice today. He's a game-time decision.

Troy Polamalu did practice, they say he will play and that KR Allen Rossum is a game-time decision.
 
Vince Young also practiced, but the Titans are down like five offensive players for this game including Bo Scaife.
 
Well got some more time I guess.

What has Seattle done worth a darn? Seriously show me something Imissed? First three home games where was that huge home field advantage? They struggled with TB in the OPENER despite the score as the key was Garcia and Cadillac missing some plays...and the tide turned..., barely beating Cincy and then losing to the Saints?

these are two entirly different teams. we were short WRs, Oline was getting injured almost daily it seemed, we did not have the passing attack we have now. I cannot overstate how impressive the late season road wins were for a long time Seattle fan. you may say weak, but I say hey we won them, something we have struggled with in the past. Yes we played easy competition, there is no denying it. But, I look at any road wins as a plus in this league, esspecially for this team.

I dont think anyone is weighing the ATL game as anything more then a typical week 17 game.

not what I have heard first hand, well initially not atleast. after these fans realize we did not have all our starters playing it is an ohhh yeah it was a garbage game. imo this atlanta game was not just a garbage loss to fans here, many still thought easy win, hell 90% of people were picking them in ESPN contest.

I could be mistaken but I think SEA home field edge is hype at this point. It exists but not to the extent some believe.

unless you believe Seattle is number 1 or 2 in the league in terms of this then I think you are actually undervaluing this. bad weather (which we love), noisiest stadium (most fall start penalties), and not to mention travel to this remote city.


now gotta go for a while
 
Yeah, I can confirm that Seattle's HFA is very real, I've been to that stadium and they can get extremely loud--and Seattle's been that way for years. The Kingdome was a complete sound nightmare for other teams. I experienced that one too, Seattle's HFA is no joke.
 
damn, had the rest of page 2 then hit page 3 and it wiped out all my quick reply.... lol

oh well, I dont think I could sound like a bigger homer anyways. Go Hawks. (me on the left from a couple weeks ago) keep an eye out!

goodluck tomorrow with whatever you guys play!

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