NFL Player Prop Bets

C

ConorB

Pretty much a regular
Hey guys,

I've been playing a few of these lately and having some success with them - I'll look at the player prop markets for each game and try to find a market (for example a WR Over/Under total receving yards) where one book is way off the others (either too high or too low) and I'll do the bet with that book if possible... I live in the UK so I have access to a number of different books (although can't always get on with the book I like).

Anyway what I was going to do is start a thread and post up some plays and try to get your guys opinions on whether there is any value in some of these bets ..
 
Chris Hogan has WR props of 4.5 catches and 62.5 yards. He's gotten 5/78, 4/68, 5/60, and 8/74 in the last 4 games. He's also scored a touchdown in 4 straight games. He's become Brady's go to guy with the injuries.

I have a strong lean on OVER both catches and yards but will probably stay away due to them playing the Jets. With a 4Q lead, they'll probably try and run the clock out instead of keep passing. It'll also protect Brady from the hits he's been taking. Look for Hogan's props when they play a team that can keep up with them.
 
I like your analysis there...

It might still hit but if game goes true to form you essentially could lose 20-25% of the game action due to that...
 
DET @ NO
- Mark Ingram UNDER 52.5 rushing yards (-125)
- Brandon Coleman OVER 26.5 receiving yards (-110)


MIA @ ATL
- Devonte Freeman UNDER 74.5 rushing yards (-120)

NE @ NYJ
- Mike Gillesiee UNDER 59.5 rushing yards (-125)


I only looked at the early games and these were the ones I came up with they are all very marginal plays if they are going to be plays at all.. nothing really stood out so far, I think the Gillesiee one looks best as I'm sure that Lewis is going to get a few snaps, 59.5 seems very high
 
I think Gilislee may be used a bunch today....I would be on that over prop but seeing as I'm ofer my last 9 prop wagers you're prob correct.
 
Yeah I'm anticipating a late lead for the Pats so I was thinking they'd run the ball but who knows.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I think Gilislee may be used a bunch today....I would be on that over prop but seeing as I'm ofer my last 9 prop wagers you're prob correct.
Click to expand...

I might not even play it but one book here has the number set at 50.5.. most at 58.5-62.5 so could be wrong, I was anticipating more snaps for the Lewis this week but I can't find a Lewis over / under

I might not even play these picks as the numbers are very tight.. I like betting these when one book are way off the rest
 
Jay Cutler to thrown an INT= Yes-130/ No- Even. Cutler has thrown an interception in 3 straight games. Being a 14 point favorite they should be throwing a lot so more chances for a pick. But the only bad thing with a Yes INT bet is the Falcons have only picked off one pass all year. Fuck it, I'm taking Yes INT.
 
Freeman 74.5 seemed high to me wasn't he hurt last game?.. they may give more of the ball to Coleman than usual
 
I'm not going to play any of these early game props.. I'll have a look at the later games, it will be interesting to see how they go though

Best of luck guys, I do think this is a great idea for a thread we can find some value betting these numbers
 
cogenman said:
Jay Cutler to thrown an INT= Yes-130/ No- Even. Cutler has thrown an interception in 3 straight games. Being a 14 point favorite they should be throwing a lot so more chances for a pick. But the only bad thing with a Yes INT bet is the Falcons have only picked off one pass all year. Fuck it, I'm taking Yes INT.
Click to expand...

I took Cutler o214.5 yds for that reason, dome yardage to boot
 
cogenman said:
I got a Freeman prop of 67.5 yards. The lines vary big time from book to book.
Click to expand...

Yeah big time I need to put money into some more books to take advantage... 67.5 v 74.6 is a huge difference, I've seen receivers before where one book is 35.5 and another 48.5
 
cogenman said:
I got a Freeman prop of 67.5 yards. The lines vary big time from book to book.
Click to expand...

Freeman had 68 rushing yards, we could have hit the over 67.5 on your book and the under 74.5 on mine :tiphat:

It just goes to show the numbers can be way off sometime though... those 7 yards are a huge difference when he's most likely going to get somewhere between 50-80 yards in total, 7 is a huge chunk out of that range of about 30 yards that he's likely to land in between
 
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