I think the Chargers tt over is the best way to play that matchup, as I said in the discussion thread between having a stud TE, quick small backfield and big wrs this is a tough matchup for a Bills defense that has overachieved. I think Rivers would have to put up a real stinker to not get over that number. Really hoping the Bills can pull out the win but as you can see from my wagers I don't see it this week. I do think they pound on the Texans next week though.
Eagles grabbed me a nice +325 at ht to win that game vs the Colts, but I think they showed how vulnerable they can be to the run. Any time Richardson and Bradshaw run wild on your defense, there is a reason to be concerned. Hoping Cousins can play a turnover free game and Morris can get going early. Eagles offense is definitely scary to go against but I'll grab the points in a divisional matchup vs a weak run D nearly every time.
Congrats to the Browns winning vs the Saints but I don't think they have the same result this week. Flacco has lost to the Browns once in 6 years, and I think the Ravens will be able to pressure Hoyer much more than the Saints did. Again fading another team that has been weak vs the run, and the Ravens are not afraid to pound the run. Ravens trouble in the redzone last week vs the Steelers is the only reason I'm not touching the team total, but I do think the Ravens get some tds here.
Original lean was to the Lions, but in the end I have to go with the better qb. GB will struggle with the run this season without Raji, and if the Lions are smart they will give Bell 25+ carries. Problem is I don't think Detroit will stick to the ground game. I also have my doubts about the Lions defense being able to stop the GB offense. Rodgers has lost one game to Detroit in his entire career, and that was in 2010 when he was knocked out of the game. Could be a much more physical tight game than many expect, but I'm rolling with the Pack.
The SF/Cards game has all the makings of a last second fg to win it either way. I'm sure many are expecting the Niners off a loss to come out blazing, but I have my doubts. Tough wager to make given Stanton starting and a thinned out rb crew for Zona, but I'll take the better defense at home here. Kap is struggling and with a hobbled Vernon I think they could struggle offensively again. The defense can't get off the field and they are penalty machines.... Hoping Peterson comes off a bad outing and gets a pick 6 and the Zona D roughs Kap up.
Peyton tt o22- Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment but I just can't believe the Hawks will shut down Manning once again. SB revenge angle may be overrated in some cases but IMO not when a premier offense gets completely embarrassed on the highest stage. I have to think they have max motivation- not to say the Hawks won't be motivated, but you can bet this game means the world to Denver. Situationally I would have liked it a bit more if the Hawks weren't coming off a loss, and it makes the Broncos that much harder to play. I think the Broncos offense may be even better this season when all is said and done, and even if Welker doesn't do much in his return at the very least they get more depth. Peyton has only failed to score over 21 pts 3x in two regular seasons. Have the Broncos +11.5 in a tease/ML on a parlay which is why I'm not on the spread.
Heavy lean to the Panthers on SNF. Steelers offense may be better than they have shown (I think Bell/Wheaton are both great young playmakers), but the defense is a shell of what it once was. Any time I can get the better defense at home around a fg I'll likely be on it. D'angelo Williams back helps the run game and the Panthers are great at home- the only home loss last year was to the Hawks week one. Honestly I was surprised this didn't open at 4/4.5, chalking it up to the public perpection that the Steelers are still a good team.
