NFL futures/ who to ride/who to fade

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C-Gold

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Pats SB 10-1 and 12-1
Eagles SB at 36-1

looking at season win totals
Minnesota under 7
49ers under 7.5 ( +145)
Deadskins under 7.5
Kansas City under 7.5

New Orleans Over 9.5
Eagles Over 9.5
NY Giants over 8.5

Looking to play
Jax at home
Pitt at home
Seattle at home
STL home overs
NO home overs
Lions overs ( home road)
Colts Home/Dome overs
Bengals overs
Eagles ( good road play)
Pats ( especially after a loss)
Giants ( early in the year)

Looking to fade
Vikings ( especially on the road)
Bills
49ers ( road, not at home)
Lions (road)
SD ( early season fades)

Want to see early
Trent Green in Miami
Raiders offensive Line
Schaub in Houston
Whole team of San Diego
49ers offense
Garcia and the Bucs D
 
Only season total I would probably disagree with is the 'Skins; their offense looks like it'll be solid if everything I'm reading about Campbell is true (I know, DC papers). Landry is a nice addition to the back though I would have liked to have seen a DL taken...I imagine Adams would've been their guy if he was still there, but I still think they'll figure out a way to get a little more heat on the QB (biggest weakness LY IMO).


Thanks for the thoughts, C.
 
Would you probably disagree with the skins, or would you disagree?

The #1 problem with that team is their D-Line. It was such a glaring hole and they didn't even address it at all. Phillip Daniels and Reynaldo Wynn will NOT get the job done. Don't they understand that defense is about pressuring the quarterback? Their front 7 was an absolute joke last year. Granted they did bring in London Fletecher, but they had 1 good linebacker last year ( Washington) and he was surrounded by trash. Warrick Holdman is trash. Washington is still coming back from injury.

Do you understand that the redskins defenese was historically bad at creating turnovers and sacking the opposing quarterbacks? That is a direct function of pass rush and they did NOTHING to change that. Champ Bailey, Assante Samuel, Walt Harris and possibly a few other corners had more interceptions than the entire redskins team defense!

I think it was 2 years ago that Shawn Springs led the team in sacks from the corner position. The Giants and Eagles have backup Defensive ends that are better than anything the redskins have.

Eagles: Kearse, Howard, Trent Cole, Juqua Thomas
Giants Strahan, Osi, Kiwi, tuck
Deadskins: Carter, Daniels, Wynn

I am not joking, but I would honestly rather have Trent Cole and Juqua Thomas over Carter and Daniels. I would also rather have Kiwi and Justin Tuck over the redskins ends. So forget about the Freak, Strahan, FA Howard, or the up and comer in Osi Omenyouri, the Giants and Eagles BACKUP ends are better than the redskins STARTERS. That is not only good for injury insurance, but the Eagles were good at rotating their D-Line to keep everybody fresh, and the pressure coming as hard in the 4th quarter as it came in the 1st quarter.

I have seen data that suggests DE is the most important position on defense ( which I believe), and I have also seen data that suggests Corner is the most important position on D. Either way, the redskins defense is screwed.

Think about this...
The NFC East had 3 playoff teams last year. It sucks to have 2 playoff teams in your division, but the East had 3. That is 6 guaranteed playoff games right there and no breaks at all. There is no Oakland/Detroit.Houston or easier game for washington... rather, they are the easier game for their opponents.

Tiki Barber pissed on them to the tune of 200 yards on their home field. It's not like the Redskins couldn't sack quarterbacks, or intercept passes, they got pissed on stopping the run too. That front 7 was the problem. So you think bringing in an undersized and aging London Fletcher is going to fix that whole front 7? I don't.

Joe Gibbs is coaching in what seems to be his final year, on a joke of a team. His grandson has some health issues, and Gibbs still doubles in his NASCAR life. He's also coaching for the worst owner in all of professional sports. I wouldn't be suprised if they tanked the season like they did last year. Remember old man gibbs didn't even have shotgun formations his first year as a coach. What about portis and the coaches fighting?

The we have Jason Campbell. Everybody blamed all the problems on Mark Brunell last year, but Jason Campbell wasn't any better at all. The guy had obvious difficulties in the redzone, and didn't light the world on fire. His slower deliver doesn't bode well for a long term projection. He wasn't even close to playing 2 years ago, and the only reason he got a shot last year is because the team tanked the season, and brunell wasn't playing that well either.
 
Indeed, Snyder's team is hideous on paper. But, it has the one best thing going for it------TOTALLY UNDER THE RADAR.

This team is HATED by the public, and NO ONE is hyping it. Never before seen such negatitivity on a Snyder team pre-season.

Those facts alone could help that sorry ass owner somehow win more than 7 games.

Add Colts u10.5 +105 to the list.....they struggle all year and win 8 games tops.
 
I am not joking, but I would honestly rather have Trent Cole and Juqua Thomas over Carter and Daniels.

You're goddamn right you would.

=)
 
claycourtlesson said:
Indeed, Snyder's team is hideous on paper. But, it has the one best thing going for it------TOTALLY UNDER THE RADAR.

This team is HATED by the public, and NO ONE is hyping it. Never before seen such negatitivity on a Snyder team pre-season.

Those facts alone could help that sorry ass owner somehow win more than 7 games.

Add Colts u10.5 +105 to the list.....they struggle all year and win 8 games tops.
Click to expand...

If I could get the Indy win total at 8, I would probably have to rob a bank to get down as much money as I wanted to on the Over. Even w/o McFarland, this team is playoff bound.

C-Gold, ok, I would disagree; I don't care for the 'Skins under, because I'm not sold on them finishing last. How can you talk about implosion in this division w/o mentioning the Giants??? Is Strahan in camp yet? Is he going to even play w/o being a disruptive force in the locker room. I think the 'Skins have a good chance of finishing ahead of this team.
 
Horses-

Which is one of the reasons I like Indy u10.5......the public is in love with Indy and "WANTS" to bet their OverWins.

Vegas knew this when they threw out that total prop. The public would've been happy to bet the Over11, but Vegas set it at 10.5 to get the public even more happy.

Vegas, indirectly at least, is all over Indy u10.5. And when it's Vegas vs "the public" in lopsided fashion, the public usually is the one being bent over the barrel at the end of the season......just like with the 2007 Indy Colts.

Cheers
 
Not to toot my own horn here, but if all you could complain about with my initial list is the Deadskins O/U, then I set up a pretty good list. I really feel that if you use this list as a guide next year, you could be on your way to making solid money. I really think this thread could help the average joe make money.

I haven't researched Indy win total, but here are some things...
1. They have the best QB in the league, and he is very unlikely to get injured.
2. They won the SB last year, and teams will be gunning for them.
3. Their defense still stinks, they were fortunate in their playoff matchups last year ( injured Green/1 dimensional KC), Baltimores offense sucked, The Pats torched them, and Grossman in rain stinks.
4. They will once again have a 1st place schedule, and I'm not sure which other divisions play them next year...
5. every team in their divison beat them last year! Rod Bironas with the long kick to win, The game the Jags just shit on them, and the Texans pulled it off late in the year. That means no easy wins from Tennesse/Houston.
6. A not so big Joe Addai split carries last year, but he will have to take additional carries this year and could get hurt.
7. Is Booger Mcfarland out for the year?

The Colts got hot at the end of last year, but after Jacksonville shit on them last year, people were questioning whether or not this team could even make the playoffs with that defense. People attribute their playoff success to "bob sanders" coming back, but they really had a chance to feast on some easier offenses. If Reche Caldwell could catch, they probably wouldn't have even won it, and everybody would still be calling Peyton a choack artist.

So could Vegas be dropping that line a tiny bit to entice action on the over... absolutly. Their defense alone could lose them 6 games. Also don't forget they had one of the worst special teams units in the league ( if not the worst) at fielding Kick offs and punts. Hester would return the ball to the 40-50 constantly in the SB, but Rexy couldn't do anything with it.
 
Horeses...

I'd hope the Redskins defense gets better, they were HISTORICALLY bad last year. 19 sacks as a team? Mike Strahan had more than that by himself a few years ago.

They also had less interceptions as a team as individual cornerbacks, including 2 guys they got rid of.

They couldn't pressure quarterbacks
they couldn't intercept passes
they couldn't stop the run

A lot of people believe Gregg Williams "out schemed" opponents a few years ago with creative blitzes for his inferior pass rush, but now that teams have a few years worth of film on those packages, they know how to beat them.

What makes you think the Redskins will finish higher than the Giants. The Giants beat them at Fedex at the end of last year without Strahan, Toomer, LT, Moss, etc. Jason Campbell wasn't any better than brunell either.

Why would I rather have Trent Cole and Juqua Thomas over Carter and Daniels????

Trent Cole is a fire starter. The guy is full over energy, and just as a motor that keeps on going. He did make a few dumb penalties last year, but the guy just plays aggressive. He is athletic, and has starter talent. If I were Philly, I would like to see him on the left side opposing Kearse on 3rd and longs. I feel Cole is a better pass rusher than Howard ( who is bigger and better against the run). I also think Cole with his energy would be nasty coming off the bench. Imagine a tired LT batteling with big Darren Howard a few seires, and instead of catching a breather, you get this high energy Trent Cole coming in and not letting up at all.

I don't think Andre Carter is bad, so let's just call them a push for arguments sake. If Carter actually had some quality guys next to him, I think he could be a DECENT end, but he isn't the kind of guy that commands a double team by himself or anything. On the right line, he could be good, but he isn't elite by any means. He is a solid DE, nothing more, nothing less.

Phillip Daniels on the other hand is horrible. No pressure at all. The reason why I would rather have Phillys backup ends, is because of Thomas being better than Daniels. Let's say Carter and Cole are pretty even, but Thomas is at least decent, while Daniels gets an F. He's terrible.

I'd also rather have Mathias Kiwinuka and Justin Tuck, because once again, lets assume Carter/Kiwi are similar ( I think Kiwi is better), but Tuck is at least a passing "C" while daniels stinks.
 
I can't back the Colts this year.

They keep losing people and not replacing them. I feel their defense this year might look like KC's from a few years ago. Will Indy put up points, yeah, but even last year they really struggled at times to put up those 28 to 35 point games with consistency.

Tennessee is going to be a tougher out for them this year, Jax has their number, hell, even Houston got 'em last year. The teams in their division have figured out how to play them. If they could only score Indy would fight to go 4-2 in their division.

They should go to the playoffs by winning their division, and I haven't looked at their schedule yet, but 10 wins sounds right, 10.5 is likely where I'd put the number too in the blind. My guess is this is a nine or ten win team with an outside shot at 11, but I'll look more into it in a few weeks.
 
They probably go 10-6 without looking at the card ( that is why Vegas sets it at 10.5). Like I said, their whole division beat them last year.

Their offense didn't struggle Joe, the Colts the past couple of years changed their philosphy. Instead of trying to score as many points as possible, and hanging their defense out to dry...

They tried to have long, time consuming efficient drives that would keep their defense on the bench with a lead. It meant closer games, but it kept their defense more fresh in the 4th quarter to potentially NOT give up the game losing score.

If they are going to try and flat out score early and often, I wouldn't put it past this team putting up over 35 per game average. 40 sounds about right, but with a few low scoring outliers to bring it down.
 
I lean your way on pretty much all your totals...

a bit iffy on the SF line...

I think they'll surprise some people this season and pull out 7-9 wins... but I also have to add that it is easier to picture them winning 4 or 5 games than it is winning 8 or 9... but it's just not something I would bet on...

also agree with the Colt theory... last season their stats went down mainly because they were playing to what the defenses were giving.. or allowing rather... teams like Baltimore and Chicago that would send in a blitz and man up close on the receivers would leave Peyton looking for a quick short pass to a tight end or to the back... and he would take that short gain all day long...

I won't expect much improvements from the Redskins. Their record, their fumbles lost, their interceptions dropped, and pretty much their horrible play last year is in the books. It's carved in stone and it pretty much showed what they were made of. It's the facts. All this talk of what is being done in practice and how they are working on improvements is still all yet to be seen and proven on the gamefield. Right now, you can check the local papers of every team and find all the hoopla talk of how their team is improving and looking good for the coming season. The skins could talk all they want, but until they show up on the field and back it up, they suck.
 
I am not advocating a Colts Over bet at 10'; simply stated, in response to CCL, that if the total was 8, I would hammer it Over. By the way Joe...Indy went 3-3 in their division LY, so I guess you could say they struggled to go 4-2 (and yet still won the Super Bowl). BTW...Tennessee will be worse this year; not better.

Claycourt, as I was sitting here a year ago, NE and Indy were the chalks and public darlings of the AFC. I think we know how that ended up. Since I have no love for the Colts, I wish you luck on your Under 10' wager.

CGold, Yeah...I should have stated that first; I found very little fault with your list. I remember discussing these things w/you over at Covers LY...it helped me a lot as I was on Philly, Balt, NE Over and Clev Under...a perfect year for me on season win totals. If you play the 'Skins under, I wish you luck, cuz I am not playing it over...I think it's priced about right.
You have dissected the DL's very well and I concede that Wash has the weakest front 7 in the division. I'm a little higher on Campbell than you are; LY was his first year and I think he will continue to improve...I think Romo, Manning and Campbell are all wild cards and would defy anyone to say who will have the better year out of those three. Washington was 31st in defense LY, with record setting lows in TO's and sacks produced...no way they repeat those numbers IMO, even with relatively the same personnel.

Will be running the Eagles over 9' back again as I agree completely with you on that one (you got some nice SB odds on them by the way). best team in their division and I think they'll be playing for a bye late in the year. Other season total I am considering is Tennessee under 7; VY or not...I think this team is going to suck.

GL.
 
How strong of a read have you got on SF, C-Gold? It seems like you're specifically targeting them as a fade, probably due in part to the fact that people see them as an improving team and rising stock.

How much will Norv's departure affect Smith and the like? I'm sure that's hat you're waiting to see, but do you plan on fading them before you catch their first game or not?

Thanks, and GL this season, looking forward to it.
 
Blitz- Your second to last paragraph sums up the Colts O/D the past couple years. Manning was taking what the other team was giving them all day long. The Texans started playing safeties an amazing 18 yards off the ball vs the Colts in game 2. The Bears copied this strategy in the SB, and didn't make any adjustments at all ( Manning completed dump off after dump off to D.Rhodes).

Your also right about every team being hyped up right now... Every newspaper will have columnists saying things like " Brodye Croyle is really throwing the ball around nice", or Calvin Johnson arrived in camp and really looked like a pro bowl receiver etc. It is to generage excitement for the season. Looks like some redskins fans bought it hook, line, and sinker with all that talk. It's lipstick on a pig.

Horeses- I'd offer my opinion on any future list, but I'd be conservative with what I play. If I see something I like, I made up my mind to pound it though. Last year when I saw Lecharles Bently go down, I thumbed through the Browns schedule and couldn't really think of a scenerio of Charlie Frye beating that win total.

People get too of an opinion on the good teams of the previous year, and too down on the bad teams. I had Philly bouncing back in a big way last year from the cellar of the NFC East, and I was one of the few people that picked washington to finish dead last.

Jason Campbell is clearly pegged as the weakest QB in the divison. Mcnabb is clearly #1, Romo was leading the league in QB rating late last year, and Eli Manning has thrown what, 52TD passes in his last 2 years? Manning has led the Giants to the playoffs both years as a starter? What has Jason Campbell ever done?

JC wasn't even on the active roster his 1st year. The guy wasn't even the #2 guy on the depth chart until the middle of last year. The only reason he got playing time, is because the team tanked the season and they wanted to see if they had anything. Campbell didn't play bad, but he was a "game manager". He didn't show me anything above average at all.

Romo had his ups and downs, but he showed upside. He was comfortable, and usually made good decisions. The cowboys were a completly different team with Romo as opposed to Bledsoe. If not for a shanked hold, they should have went to at least the second round of the playoffs.

Eli Manning had the Giants looking real good last year until the injuries were just too much. He won the divison as his first year as a starter, and took the Giants to the playoffs as the 3rd playoff team in the division. While he has had his full deck of cards, he has looked impressive. How about that nearly 400 yard performance and 3TD comeback against the eagles in week 2? Jason Cambell won't have a game like that. Eli has had his problem games too, but it is a lot easier to fix those wrinkles, than it is to be good in the first place. A lot of those losses last year weren't his fault ( Dallas 2, the eagles playoff game etc.) The game in jacksonville he was blamed for the loss, but he was a dead duck, Peyton couldn't have won that game if they traded places.
 
Dyso- I am targeting the 49ers as a fade. People like the 49ers for a few main reasons...
1. They think Alex Smith is due for a breakout
2. They see Frank Gore as a top notch RB
3. Now smith has some new receivers
4. They made some additions on defense
5. They beat seattle 2 times, and closed the year out with a respectable record, people think they can translate that into bouncing up to be a playoff team.

I see the team losing the mastermind behind that offense. Norv Turner is QB friendly, but he is VERY RB friendly. Emmit Smith in Dallas, Stephen Davis in Washington, He even made Rickey Williams look good in Miami, and now Frank Gore in san fran.

When fans pick up their NFL preview magazine, they put too much stock in who a team signed, and who they lost, while they don't factor in coaches, and who the team has.

Example: If a bad team ( lets call them the Redskins) signs a bunch of free agents to turn themselves into an average team, fans woudl rather bet on that team than a team that is already average. They don't look at the absolute team, they are more concerned about " who did they sign or bring in".

- I do like Alex Smith, the kid showed me something, but keep in mind the 49ers have to learn an entire new offense, with an entire new language etc. Will there be a learning curve?
- Frank Gore got rode into the ground last year... Why does that matter? Well 2 years ago Shaun Alexander and Clinton Portis got rode into the ground leading the league in carries/touches ( and got injured), and now Gore was a leader in carries/touches last year. THE GUY TOOK A BEATING. Not only is Gore very at risk to getting injured this year, the guy already broke his hand. How will that effect his cardio/training camp. If I had to bet on which RBs would get injured Larry Johnson and Frank Gore are at the top of my list.
- Alex Smith might not be the only one with a learning curve with this new offense, what if a receiver runs the wrong route? If Ashley Lelie runs the wrong route, the defender could intercept that ball and score a touchdown. People need to be on the same page on offense, and bringing in a new coach is putting you at risk to do that.
- I still have to see that defense improve on the road before I see it.
- I am not a big fan of Mike Nolan as a head coach. I could be wrong ( I underestimated Sean Peyton in NO), but I am still not a fan of Mike Nolan.

The season win total has also not adjusted at Bodog. They just changed the Juice to something like -170. That should raise suspicion right there, they want that line to stay where it is.

I think the public is too high on the 49ers ( improving on last years improvement), while I'll believe it when I see it. Norv Turner is a top notch OC, and he will be missed. Seattle also won't be happy they got swept last year and they won't get swept again.
 
Great stuff C-Gold; I will be watching those 'Skins of yours (lol) closely. I'm definitely not playing any futures with them. I think Campbell will have a decent year though and his numbers and value to his team will compare to the other two; def not calling for the playoffs but am calling for more of a bounce back year for them than you are.

All over philly as I mentioned.

I have the Vikes on my list (speaking of questionable qb play) to go Under; still need to look at the depth of this team though and the division they play in does concern me (weakest div in football?). This team is built for ball control and field position games which doesn't always bode well when your home field is a dome.
 
Agreed.

A dome team should have a high powered offense. Tavaras Jackson is NOT the guy you want running a high powered offense! Jackson had a sub 55% completion percentage at a D1AA school! He couldn't beat out Matt Jones at QB back in Arkansass, so he went to a D1AA school. Now Matt Jones isn't a bad player, but he got moved to receiver at the pro level for a reason. So basically, Tavaras Jackson couldn't beat out a QB converted to Receiver... once he moved to D1AA, he couldn't even complete 60% of his passes against weaker competition.

I guess he did have some rushing yards in college, but that is against much weaker and slower competition. He probably couldn't have even rushed for many yards at Arkansas in the SEC. He had slow to average linebackers run him down last year in the NFL. He isn't very smooth in his drop back/tosses. He doesn't even look like a good backup quarterback to me. I am looking to fade that jackass.

Campbell reminds me more of a Byron Leftwhich type ( who I also don't like). He just played more like a game manager last year, and was terrible in the redzone.

Manning and Romo played good and bad last year, but it is easier to fix the bad, then it is to be good in the first place. They made mistakes last year, that Campbell will make this year. Then again, Joe Gibbs will probably keep the training wheels on Campbell and try and RUN the ball ( Like other teams won't know that is coming). Don't forget, the Redskins have a short group of receivers. Moss is short, Randel El is a midget, and Lloyd is right at 6'. Shorter receivers are quicker and more agile, but they are a harder target to throw to.

When I look at the Redskins against the other last place in their division teams, I don't think they are that bad. They certainly aren't in the Raiders of last years category, but they aren't a good team by any means. To win with a quarterback like Jason Campbell or Byron Leftwhich etc. you need the rest of your team firing on all cylinders. With that Poor of a defensive line, I don't see that team being so great. The Wasington Redskins look like a 6,7, or 8 win team to me. I'd have to look at their schedule to peg them, but they don't look like a playoff team.
 
Indy went 3-3 in their division LY, so I guess you could say they struggled to go 4-2 (and yet still won the Super Bowl). BTW...Tennessee will be worse this year; not better.

I agree with all that, and what their record last year demonstrated is two things to me. One, their division may not be getting all that much better, but all of those teams have figured out how to play the Colts.

I like Dungy, but I'm not convinced he (or Moore) really knows how to adjust like he should. The Colts are great when they can play their game, when you knock them around a bit and get them out of it, they become a team that simply can't score enough. I'm not even convinced that they should have covered the SB but for Rex Grossman being a mess. My point being, the teams in their division have figured out ways to play Indy. Jax was the first to do it, now the others have copied it--even Buffalo copied it last year (or was it the year before) in Indy.

That's why I see them having issues again this year in their division, and given the losses they've sustained, why I have trouble seeing them taking anything but a step back. Not a huge one, I still think they can and should win their division, and that they can win a playoff game, maybe two. But I just don't think they're going to be as good as everybody really wants them to be this year.

I also agree with CG on SF. I think that loss of Norv is going to be huge for them. I haven't looked at the division yet, and they may still be the best of a bad four-pack, but I don't love them the way the world seems to want to this year.
 
Joe- What does it mean that the Titans, Texans and Jagurs " figured out how to play them" mean?

I don't like Dungy at all. He is an average/sub average coach with a hall of fame quarterback ( maybe the best ever).
 
I agree with both of you that losing OC Turner brings an unknown to the SF sideline that is difficult to quantify right now; that's why I'm so skeptical as well about ESPN and the media touting the 49ers so much; I definitely think they're an organization that has made some solid moves in the last year, but for this year, I'm afraid the loss of Turner may have a larger impact than the media is projecting.

It's kind of a hard thing to quantify, but the Colts win the SB yet only go 3-3 in their division, so I have to agree with Joe that their division 'knows how to play them'; all division games are generally grudge matches and often straight up records can be thrown out.

Curious what you all think of the Jaguars this season...seems like this team has a lot of pieces in place to make a SB run, except for the passing game, which I guess is kind of like saying Bush is a good president except for his foreign policy. (sorry). Still like the Jags to possibly overtake the Colts this year, esp if they can figure out a way to handle Houston.
 
I am going back and forth on the Jaguars...

The team they most remind me of are the Ravens of the past few years. I am a big believer in Jack Del Rio. He is a defensive mastermind... not dungy, not marvin Lewis. Jack Del Rio has had good defensive units where ever he went, he is passionate, smart, and a great defensive mind. Maybe not the best head coach, but I couldn't think of many people I would rather have coaching my d.

Dungy had a good d with the stacked bucs, and Marvin did with the stacked ravens... they haven't impressed me outside of that at all, defensively or as head coaches.

The Jags remind me of baltimore, in that they have an outstanding D, and a weak conservative offense. Last year, steve Mcnair played good enough that the ravens were super bowl contenders and 13-3, but 2 years ago, the ravens were a borderline playoff team and I believe 9-7.

The point is that even though the Jags offense stinks, I think that defense can be that good, that they can win games by themself. Byron doesn't even neccesarily have to play average, just don't lose the freaking game. Don't try and win games Byron, just wait until the opposing quarterback losses the game already. Run the ball, play that boring predictable style, and be a better than .500 team and make the playoffs.

That defense, at home, on grass, is going to be absolutley filthy and I am looking to play them. Not sure about the road, but if the numbers are fair for home games, I will at least consider them each week.
 
I like Minny this year. Their D is going to keep them in almost every game. And the running combo of Taylor and Peterson should be nice behind that line. I know Tavaris Jackson is unproven, but I think they can have some success in a weak division. 10 wins is possible IMO.
 
Anything is possible, but I strongly disagree with Vikings at 10 wins.

- Taylor isn't that great of a RB, and Peterson although physically impressive is an injury prone RB playing on a turf field.
- Their defense looked better on paper than they really were, combine that with...
- They lost their MVP of their defense... their coach. Defensive coordinator packs his bags to Pittsburgh, and now the whole defense must adapt to new coaching and schemes. Easier said than done.
- Their receivers are nothing special at all.

but most of all, their quarterback.

Tavaras Jackson couldn't beat out Matt Jones for the starting QB job in Arkansas. Matt Jones is an NFL player, but he is playing the position that catches passes and not throws them. After Jackson realized he couldn't beat out Matt Jones at Arkansass, he went to play D1AA ball.

He couldn't even complete 55% of his passes there which is horrible at that easier level.

He looked like crap in the 2 games he started last year. His Vikings defense scored more points than the offense he commanded. In the STL games, they were getting blown out and he picked up some garbage yards. I believe he threw a pick 6 in that game and looked like crap once again.

The commentators talk about his "athleticism" but I just don't see it. I saw linebackers 50 pounds heavier than him just run him down with ease.

I don't like his mechanics. He has bad footwork and a long delivery. I think playing a D1AA QB with bad mechanics in a west coast NFL offense is asking for Lotto pick and the coach to be fired.

It's not just that Jackson is bad, but Taylor is average, the receivers aren't very good either. The wild cards will be Adrian Peterson and the strong offensive line. Rookie RBs can enjoy success, but can Peterson learn enough about the protection and the passing game of the west coast offense?

A dome team running a WCO, should have a feared offense, but I'm just not scared of Tavaras Jackson throwing inaccurate passes to Visante Shancoe.

This team looks more likely to win 4-5 games, than 10-11.
 
Joe- What does it mean that the Titans, Texans and Jagurs " figured out how to play them" mean?

Sorry, CG, I've been negligent in getting back to this thread.

Here's what I mean.

A couple of years ago the Jags started doing something pretty obvious with Indy. They started playing them very physically. It's all about their defense. They find a way to get pressure and they find a way to throw off Manning's timing.

I honestly think this was a conscious effort on the part of the Jags' GM to build a defense specifically to combat Indy because Indy owns the division. To this point they've pretty much done this. Losing Darius might hurt this, I also don't know how their D-line is going to shape up this year as opposed to previous ones.

But you go back and look at most of those Jags/Indy games, the Jags do everything they can to keep those games as low scoring as possible. To keep Indy under 21, and they've found the defensive way to get it done.

How many times have you watched a Indy/Jags game and seen Peyton shaking his head as he walks off the field and unsnaps his chinstrap? It happens all the time.

And I think the other teams in their division have started to mimic what the Jags do to the Colts defensively and now you're starting to see tight, low scoring games when these teams get together.

I would agree on Dungy, going back to my original point, which is that I'm not convinced he's ever been able to adjust all that well. Even going back to Tampa, if you think about those teams there were teams that always played them well and TB always had problems with.

The Jags I'm sort of fuzzy on still, but I'll get back on the Vikings in a bit.
 
My observations tell me that teams that can get a strong push up the middle give the Colts and Manning problems (see Jacksonville and the Chargers). Tennessee and Houston beating the Colts LY simply falls under the category of 'shit happening'; yes, Fisher did outcoach Dungy in that particular game and the Texans somehow beat the Colts as well. We call those upsets, but even if those two teams did know how to play the Colts, they really don't have the personnel to execute the game plan the way the Chargers and Jaguars do on defense. Simply put, they were upsets, and if I'm not mistaken, one of the upsets occurred when the Colts had nothing to play for, and we know how that team does under those circumstances.

I don't think Dungy should be dissed; he's not a top 5 coach IMO, but he's no idiot either. You can say Cowher outcoached him two years ago in the playoffs, but if you say that, can't you say Dungy outcoached both Billick and Bellichick LY in the playoffs as well? Indy won 4 games away from hoem LY to win the SB; if you don't give Dungy some credit for that, I don't see how you can diss him for a (meaningless?) loss to Tennessee in the regular season.

I've read up some more on Jax; I see Reggie Williams and Matt Jones are 2nd team; Earnest Willford and god knows who are running with the 1st team...IS THIS TEAM GOING TO BE ABLE TO PASS??? I think they will figure something out and am very close to pulling the trigger on an Over bet for the Jags. I really like this team and can even accept Leftwich...just wish that had ONE guy that even resembles a #1 on the outside.
 
Lets see......So Dungy takes a losing team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and makes them an elite defensive team, with a mediocre quarterback, drops them on Grudens lap and they win a superbowl. Then he goes to another losing team called the Indianapolis Colts and magically they win a superbowl. Oh yeah, I forgot, it wasnt Dungy's coaching, it was Manning. What a coincidence that he builds 2 Superbowl teams back to back. hmmmm
:prayer
 
First of all, Rick Mccay built the team in Tampa, stockpiling it as one of the most talented defensive teams I can remember, and Bill Polian stock piled the Colts with the best quarterback in NFL history.\

Tampa Bay stunk for years, and was constantly getting high round draft picks... at some point in time, they are going to turn it around.

Drops it into Grudens lap? Dungy was fired because his teams constantly underperfromed expectations ( super bowl), and he looked foolish in the playoffs every year.

If you took Manning away from him, his offense AND his defense would stink...

If you took Dungy away from Manning, the Offense would be the same, and the defense couldn't get much worse. You don't need to be a genius to run a blanket cover 2 defense. It doesn't take much thinking, running a base defense and not adjusting to your opponenets.

If you flip a coin 10 times, it's not always going to land on heads 5 times, and tails 5 times. Sometimes it might land on heads every time. Tony Dungy is the lucky guy, who happened to have super talented teams... sort of like Joe Gibbs in the 80's/early 90's.
 
This is a pointless argument because you're never going to give Dungy the credit he deserves.

Period.

The thing that bothers me about that is that nobody here is even saying the f**king guy is Vince Lombardi, but to call the guy a bad coach is simply ignorant.

Is he a great coach? I don't think so, but he is quite obviously a better than average coach.

His track record proves it.

He took over a team that was a laughing stock in TB and coached it into a guaranteed playoff team.

He took a team in Indy where "playoffs" is still a national punchline and eventually won a SB with them.

Even in Minny as a coordinator I'm pretty sure he got to the conference championship.

The guy has won everywhere he's been, taken teams a step higher than they were before in each city. If he left Indy tomorrow there would be a line of owners 15 to 20 deep at the door to try to hire him.

Has he had some great coordinators working for him? Absolutely, Moore in Indy and Kiffin in TB are as good as you get--but Joe Gibbs arguably has a staff of rock stars under him and that team can't even tie its shoes. So at the very least you have to give the guy managerial credit.

You talk about TB being built by Rich McKay, but the truth is, one Dungy was playing with Trent Dilfer at QB in a conference where you needed more than that to get to the SB at the time. And two, it's pretty well known that Gruden didn't do any defensive coaching on that team as the defense was already built and Monte Kiffin had it running like a machine. Gruden did two things exceptionally well, he got Brad Johnson in there to play with fewer mistakes than Dilfer and he matched up with a team he basically built himself in Oakland in the SB.

But again we might as well just move on, you have your opinion on this, it's what you think of the guy and though the vast majority of people who follow the game disagree with you, you have no intention of changing your mind--which is fine--but to have the argument ends up then being a waste of time.
 
Back to the original subject, and since you're around Brewer.

I read something over the weekend that really hyped your Bears--particularly their offense.

Thoughts?
 
berrian emerged last year.

bradley is a 3rd year wr (i believe) who we are high on.

hestermania at wr and some rb i even heard.

and greg olsen who is said to be the 2nd fatest te in the league, has a great work ethic, good hands, and is a better blocker than he was thought. against linebackers he is too fast for them and against dbs he has too much height on them.

olsen brings an entire new dimension to this offense in the two te package. are d's going to come out of their base to play the pass or stay in it and play run?

i no longer think of the bears as the smash u with the ground game conservative offense of old. i hated that look of years past. i got what i wanted with this bears new look offense we are putting out on the field now. hopefully i wont regret it.
 
i no longer think of the bears as the smash u with the ground game conservative offense of old.

Exactly, that's what I read and that's what I'm wondering about. Can they make it happen.

What I basically read was that there was no one on their defense who could run with Hester in practice. Now, does that mean he can catch the football, no, so we'll have to see about that, but that he creates space is a huge deal, precisely because of the other two guys you mention.

If Olsen can run that seam, the Bears are going to score a lot of points in that division because everybody in that division basically plays a Cover Two. Without an Urlacher on those other rosters, if a Hester or this other guy, Bradley, can create space, that middle and those swing things to Olsen are going to kill teams.

I know nothing about Bradley, but they're hyping him right up.

I'm really interested to see this team in the preseason. Mostly its offense.

I don't know how sold I am on the defense, I do think it will be good, perhaps better than last year--but I also think it will be thinner than last year, and last year it didn't have a ton of depth.

Bad division, though--still--so I'm interested to see this team sooner than later so I can get a sense on whether or not I think they're going to hold that division crown or not.
 
what concerns me with the bears is depth at rb and linebacker

LB, what about the secondary. They just traded a safety, they're moving Hester to offense (not that he was all that great back there), but all I see in that secondary is bodies going away from it, not coming to it.

That worries me. RB, I thought they had another backup, aren't the Bears the one with the 'other' Adrian Peterson?
 
far as bears secondary goes they added adam archuleta in FA. getting mike brown back from injury. have vasher and peanut locked up. manning is their 3rd corner.

they moved chris harris because we are deep at safety.

hester was never gonna make it as a corner so he was moved to offense.

bears are high are their rookies they drafted to replace wesley and harris who left. least thats what i gathe as to why they were dismissed of.

ya peterson is the backup. hes not a real fast back. however he does hold the college record for most consecutive 100 yard rushing games (at some no name college) i thought i saw flash on the tv when i was watching saturday night.

if one of our linebackers goes down our run d is suspect.
 
willingly ignorant about certain issues, Dungy's coaching ability being one.

I am not ignorant about Dungys coaching abilities.

- You say that Fungy is good because he won
- If you follow that Logic, then Rex Grossman is good because he won, he was the 2nd best QB in the league because of that logic. His boy Kyle Orton is good too, because of his record as a rookie quarterback. Trent Dilfer is also a good quarterback because of his 19 game win streak etc.

I say that Fungy won because he had Bill Polian and Rich Mckay stockpile him with super talented teams in both tampa and indy.
- He had multiple probowl players on every level of that defense in Tampa. Half the damn team was going to Hawaii. In fact, the team was so damn stacked, they they finally did win the super bowl when Dungy left. He is not known for adjusting well, and his team was better off without him.
- He had the same problems adjusting in Indianapolis, only Peyton Manning was the one labeled the choak artist. Peyton was a flat out bigger personality than Dungy, and he got all the blame for the losses, not Fungy.
- Fungy has one of the best offenses in the league in Indy, and he doesn't even mess with that side of the ball. Basically him and his friend Ron Meeks ( who is a terrible defensive coordinator by the way) coach the underperforming defense. Dungy kept Meeks around because of his whole affirmative action views, despite the poor performance.

Look, I think you really have to question the "genius" in guys like Fungy, Marvin Lewis AND Brian Billeck, when the other side of the ball is what carries the team. I know you think I am singeling Fungy out, but I think Billeck and Marvin Lewis are highly overrated as well.

- You say that he "built" those teams. When a team stinks and they don't trade away their draft picks, it means they are getting the most highly regarded college prospects. If they pan out, it means your bringing in super blue chip talent into your team ( Peyton Manning, Derrick Brooks, Simeon Rice, Edge James) and that these guys should help you turn it around. It's not like Dungy was the guy picking them, he has been blessed by his lord to have two great GMs that stockpiled his teams with talent.

Dungy also said that he won't kill himself as a coach and work those 4am to 11 pm days. He said there are more important things to life than coaching football... religion, affirmative action etc. When he wins, the media commends him on that, but if he would have lost, it would be idiot dungy.

watching him get out coached by Jeff Fisher last year was just priceless.
 
Going to open this one back up as it's very informative for the purpose of this forum...

Lets keep it to the thread title boys....
 
looking at season win totals
Minnesota under 7
49ers under 7.5 ( +145)
Deadskins under 7.5
Kansas City under 7.5

New Orleans Over 9.5
Eagles Over 9.5
NY Giants over 8.5
Click to expand...


I think Minnesota and Kansas City are strong under numbers there. Thae Eagles is number is soft as well IMO. Obviously these are from a few weeks ago and may have changed.
 
Thanks Jumponboard. I don't want people to get the wrong impression of me. I want to cap football games, and I want to be the best damn capper online.

Bar- I think they are even stronger when you consider that...
- Tavaras Jackson is the QB of Minnesota and I expect him to be one of the worst in the league at his position.
- Minnesota is a dome team that doesn't have a good offense.
- Their defense will be worse this year
- Not a big fan of their coach

Chiefs
- I will love this bet even more if Brodyle Croyle is the quarterback. That guy " learning on the job" will certainly mean losses for his team.
- LJ took a huge number of carries last year, is skipping out on camp, and has one of the highest injury probabilities in my opinion.
- we all remember the shitty chiefs defense from a few years ago, but I expect a little improvement this year.
but like I said, If Croyle and Huard are calling shots, I don't like their chances to be a .500 team.
- I think people love to hate Herm Edwards. but he isn't a bad coach.

The san fran total is pretty good, I just love that big juice. People love that over so much, and that juice is just sitting there, I more see VALUE with that pick. I mean, this one could really go either way ( I'd still lean under), but with that juice money, I am really thinking about pulling that trigger.

I really see the Eagles having a Bye in round 1 of the playoffs next year... that means more than 9.5 wins.

In general, I like season UNDERS better, because your not as likely to see a suprise from the upside, your more likely to have injuries and fall off the face of the earth. The teams that come out of nowhere and win, really come out of nowhere and win, but the "cinderella/suprise teams" get juiced up so much it's not even worth it... see san fran.
 
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