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A college football newsletter by Jason Kirk
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[TD="class: yiv4581408547padding yiv4581408547paragraph-block, align: left"]Joshua Dobbs had a strange career with the Tennessee Volunteers. He gave up on two straight redshirt seasons in order to take over as starter as both a freshman and sophomore. As a junior, the QB with the big arm commanded an offense designed to dink-and-dunk its way to three-point leads it’d then squander. His final year, the offense finally evolved, but the roster collapsed.
Along the way, he wildly fluctuated between overrated and underrated. With some perspective, I think he’s ended up underappreciated.
1. Among QBs likely to be picked, he’s probably the best all-around athlete.
“He might be one of the better deep-ball passers in football based on his 47.7 percent completion rate and 14 touchdowns on passes of 21 yards or more,”
NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks wrote, and Dobbs is also known for a quick release.
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[TD="class: yiv4581408547padding yiv4581408547paragraph-block, align: left"]At the combine, his 4.64 40 was second among all QBs. He topped the three-cone and posted top-three numbers in both jump drills, albeit at a lean 6’3, 216. He also led this QB class in yards per carry and led the Vols in rushing while having
one of the most productive throwing seasons in Tennessee history.
Or just look at this spin:
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[TD="class: yiv4581408547padding yiv4581408547paragraph-block, align: left"]2. He might be the smartest player in the whole draft, as you’ve heard a million times.
College fans are tired of hearing about his academic work as a literal rocket scientist, but it’s hard to worry about him grasping a pro playbook.
“My senior year, I was taking astronautics, propulsion, and an aerodynamics class, all on the same day,”
he told SI. “At the same time as football season, when I was leading an SEC team. I think I can handle it.”
He scripted his own pro day, too.
3. He was great at avoiding INTs ... in 2015.
In 2016, he threw a pick every 29.75 attempts, a bit worse than the already worrying averages by top prospects Deshaun Watson (35.7) and DeShone Kizer (36.6). Consistent accuracy is Dobbs’ No. 1 needed improvement.
But in 2015, he had one of the nation’s best ratios, averaging 68.8 attempts per INT. So he’s got it in him to pass to the right team! More on 2016 in a second.
More troubling overall is his pattern of fumbles, considering his relatively small hands, though all running QBs fumble. In 2015, he had only one more fumble than Dak Prescott, for whatever that’s worth.
4. Speaking of 2016, consider the context of Tennessee’s season.
The Vols had a cascade of injuries and in-season transfers.
Dobbs lost four offensive linemen for multiple games each, and his most talented weapon, potential first-round RB Alvin Kamara, was banged up. At one point, virtually the entire running game was on the shoulders of Dobbs and sophomore third-stringer John Kelly.
A depleted defense gave up 31-plus points five times in October/November, forcing UT to win shootouts and wasting Dobbs’ 31-of-34, 516-total-yards, four-total-touchdowns day against a decent Vanderbilt defense.
Tennessee was also in its second and last year under Mike DeBord,
one of college football’s least-renowned major OCs. DeBord’s offense was often agonizingly conservative despite having a strong-armed QB, lots of tall receivers, and Kamara.
5. Overall, Dobbs was clutch as a senior.
The Vols started as 2016’s mystically good crunch-time team, BSing their way to 5-0 via wild luck, which then caught up with them in a hurry. That’s a fair way of looking at it.
Also fair:
- Dobbs led all of this year’s draft prospects in 2016 second half passer rating.
- His fourth quarter rating ranked No. 1 among all FBS QBs with 50 or more such attempts.
- In the second half against Florida, he led four straight quick TD drives within eight minutes of game clock to secure UT’s first win over the Gators since 2004.
- His four second-half TDs in the win over Georgia included a hail mary at the buzzer, countering UGA’s own long bomb from seconds earlier.
- Two late INTs hurt at Texas A&M, but it was a big overall second half by Dobbs and Kamara that turned a 28-7 third quarter deficit into double overtime.
- He had the fifth-best under-pressure rating in the country, per Pro Football Focus.
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[TD="class: yiv4581408547padding yiv4581408547paragraph-block, align: left"]And after a midseason slump that involved injuries, Bama, injuries against Bama, and post-Bama injuries,
the Vols closed strong.
Out of necessity, Tennessee unleashed the offense it should have had all along, and Dobbs posted a sampling of Heisman-level numbers: 92-for-124 (74 percent) for 1,260 yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception (passer rating: 189.9), plus 49 carries for 511 yards and seven more scores.
Tennessee averaged 29.3 points per game in its first eight contests, then averaged 47.8 in its last five. No, there weren't elite defenses on the slate in that stretch, but Dobbs was damn-near perfect.
6. Bama was only part of it.
He faced much tougher schedules than most QBs do.
He’s had to play Alabama four times (this is awkward half-praise, but UT’s only kept it within two scores against Bama three times since 2006; two of those were under Dobbs), Florida’s remained elite on defense, the SEC East has raw talent (and little else, sure), and the Vols have played tough overall non-cons the last two years.
He’s being projected as late as the sixth round, but I’m not smart enough to see a potential five-round gap between him and, say, Kizer.
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[TD="class: yiv4581408547padding yiv4581408547paragraph-block, align: left"]Get more college football every day! Let's be friends on
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