Tito
The Salty Dog
Playoffs - 6-2 (+8.5u)
Hit all 3 sides I played, my teaser and two player props, very good weekend. Just two dumb adds during the Cincy game, but a very good start.
Chiefs +6 (-120) -2u-
Will try to write this up later if I have time, gotta run. But I was going to play the Chiefs if the 5.5 popped up again at Bovada.
Zona -7 (-105) -2u-
I would've played this for more if not for the injuries on Zona's D. Really wish Honeybadger was playing, just such a key player. Still like this play though. I was on Gb last week, and expected them to do well against the Skins D which was pretty poor, the worst of all the playoff teams. While I think that game helped them to get back on track, I think they are still shaky on offense and some of that was masked with the level of D they played last week. Also looks like Davante Adams will not play, one less weapon for Rodgers. Zona's D will not be at full strength, but I think it will still be enough against an average offense. GB's D is the worst of the playoff teams, and looks like Shields will be out for this one too. 19th run D per FO going up against David Johnson will spell trouble for GB. There are an awful lot of options for the Zona offense and I think they will be able to score with relative ease. Zona's offense is #1 among all playoff teams in regards to yards per drive and drive success rate (drive series resulting in 1st downs or Td's). And they are #2 in points per drive. To me it all adds up to a team that is just much better in most areas and a fairly big mismatch when Zona's O is on the field. GB may score, but not enough to keep up. May add to this if it goes down and will have Zona in some teasers/parlay as I love them to win SU.
Seahawks/Panthers OVER 44 (-105) -3u-
I realize both D's are very good, but they are not good as they once were and I see them as somewhat vulnerable. Especially up against these two O's that have just been on fire to end the reg season. I know Seattle flopped last week, but I am ignoring that due to the weather. While they scored regularly in the 30's the other team often was shut down, but look at when they played good offenses and/or playoff bound teams, plenty of points. Both O's can score and have Qb's that can make plays even when there isn't a play there to be made. Both teams are top 5 in points per drive and drive success rate. Both games this season h2h were over the number here, and I think it happens again.
Panthers ML (-120) -2u-
Been scared off of this a bit as I mentioned in the Divisional discussion thread. Line makes little sense at a pick em. We just saw Seahawks struggle and get lucky to advance. And now they go to a 15-1 team, and its a pick? I just thought at the least it should be -3. If not 3.5 or 4. But regardless, trying to not predict a lines meaning and just go off the teams on the field. I really like the panther team and think they are built for playoff football. Pound the rock w Stewart or Cam, dump off to Olsen, then go for some big plays, just a tough team to play against as they can beat you down. I like the makeup of the team and in addition you have the Seahawks very likely beaten down by travel and their second straight eastern time zone game. I think Carolinas O is going to be able to beat down the Seahawks. Tough, tough team to play at their home. Carolina moves on.
Chiefs +14.5/GB-Zona OVER 40/Panthers +10 -2u-
Arizona -1/OVER 42.5 -2u-
Pats UNDER 56/Zona OVER 36.5/Panthers OVER 31/Broncos UNDER 53 -2u-
James Starks Receiving Yards OVER 19.5 (+100) -2u-
Jerricho Cotchery Receptions OVER 2 (-125) -4u-
Cotchery has had 2 or more receptions in every game for the last 10 weeks, w plenty of focus on Olsen and Funchess I think he can get there again.
Emmanuel Sanders Receptions OVER 5 (-125) -2u-
Will be adding...Want to hear more about Big Ben and his condition.
:shake:
Hit all 3 sides I played, my teaser and two player props, very good weekend. Just two dumb adds during the Cincy game, but a very good start.
Chiefs +6 (-120) -2u-
Will try to write this up later if I have time, gotta run. But I was going to play the Chiefs if the 5.5 popped up again at Bovada.
Zona -7 (-105) -2u-
I would've played this for more if not for the injuries on Zona's D. Really wish Honeybadger was playing, just such a key player. Still like this play though. I was on Gb last week, and expected them to do well against the Skins D which was pretty poor, the worst of all the playoff teams. While I think that game helped them to get back on track, I think they are still shaky on offense and some of that was masked with the level of D they played last week. Also looks like Davante Adams will not play, one less weapon for Rodgers. Zona's D will not be at full strength, but I think it will still be enough against an average offense. GB's D is the worst of the playoff teams, and looks like Shields will be out for this one too. 19th run D per FO going up against David Johnson will spell trouble for GB. There are an awful lot of options for the Zona offense and I think they will be able to score with relative ease. Zona's offense is #1 among all playoff teams in regards to yards per drive and drive success rate (drive series resulting in 1st downs or Td's). And they are #2 in points per drive. To me it all adds up to a team that is just much better in most areas and a fairly big mismatch when Zona's O is on the field. GB may score, but not enough to keep up. May add to this if it goes down and will have Zona in some teasers/parlay as I love them to win SU.
Seahawks/Panthers OVER 44 (-105) -3u-
I realize both D's are very good, but they are not good as they once were and I see them as somewhat vulnerable. Especially up against these two O's that have just been on fire to end the reg season. I know Seattle flopped last week, but I am ignoring that due to the weather. While they scored regularly in the 30's the other team often was shut down, but look at when they played good offenses and/or playoff bound teams, plenty of points. Both O's can score and have Qb's that can make plays even when there isn't a play there to be made. Both teams are top 5 in points per drive and drive success rate. Both games this season h2h were over the number here, and I think it happens again.
Panthers ML (-120) -2u-
Been scared off of this a bit as I mentioned in the Divisional discussion thread. Line makes little sense at a pick em. We just saw Seahawks struggle and get lucky to advance. And now they go to a 15-1 team, and its a pick? I just thought at the least it should be -3. If not 3.5 or 4. But regardless, trying to not predict a lines meaning and just go off the teams on the field. I really like the panther team and think they are built for playoff football. Pound the rock w Stewart or Cam, dump off to Olsen, then go for some big plays, just a tough team to play against as they can beat you down. I like the makeup of the team and in addition you have the Seahawks very likely beaten down by travel and their second straight eastern time zone game. I think Carolinas O is going to be able to beat down the Seahawks. Tough, tough team to play at their home. Carolina moves on.
Chiefs +14.5/GB-Zona OVER 40/Panthers +10 -2u-
Arizona -1/OVER 42.5 -2u-
Pats UNDER 56/Zona OVER 36.5/Panthers OVER 31/Broncos UNDER 53 -2u-
James Starks Receiving Yards OVER 19.5 (+100) -2u-
Jerricho Cotchery Receptions OVER 2 (-125) -4u-
Cotchery has had 2 or more receptions in every game for the last 10 weeks, w plenty of focus on Olsen and Funchess I think he can get there again.
Emmanuel Sanders Receptions OVER 5 (-125) -2u-
Will be adding...Want to hear more about Big Ben and his condition.
:shake:
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