GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Been tracking movement from August through Opening Day to now. Figured we might as well start a new thread as we're at the quarter pole.
CLE from 145 to 130 to 165 to 125, which is higher than BAL despite last week's road win. Think there's been a lot of venom toward Kitchens and Baker, but they handled a tough start very well with that big win last week. BAL is not the defense it was last year, may improve with Jimmy Smith's return but that doesn't seem to be immediate after not practicing last week and it has beaten two of the worst teams in the league, which show up later on CLE schedule. CLE has injuries concerns of its own with Landry in the concussion protocol this week, both projected starting CBs (Ward, G. Williams) were inactive @BAL along with a 2019 4th round DB and free agent acquisition Morgan Burnett. CLE spent a ton of its cap on the defense and more specifically on its DL this year, but that secondary needs to get back to health ASAP. The two CBs and Burnett haven't played since Week 2, but there seems to be some relatively unheralded depth there who have been grading really well according to PFF.
As for the rest of the division, CIN is in the running for the 1st overall pick, PIT may only be 1 GB but without Roethlisberger I'm not afraid of a gadget offense orchestrated by Mike Tomlin and staff.
BAL has a division winner's schedule, CLE a 3rd place.
Rest edge favors BAL, who is better rested this week @PIT and vsNE, but also has three extra days in the rematch @CLE after hosting NYJ on TNF. That's a big deal. They are at a rest disadvantage @CIN who is off a bye, which could be a bit of a trap game after the bye into NE. BAL shouldn't lose that game, but the same thing happens the next week when BAL hosts HOU off its bye. MNF @LAR is going to be a tough game and that gives BAL a short week when it hosts SF next before @BUF has a few extra days to lick its wounds off a TNF game @DAL.
Meanwhile, CLE is certainly in trouble that BAL has extra time to prepare for them. Could see CLE looking ahead a bit to that game, but fortunately the previous game is against lowly ARI. It is in the desert and good teams have slipped there before, but thankfully it could be a lot worse. CLE also has one of its rest deficiency games out of the way from its victory @BAL, but gets SF this week on the road off a bye. CLE hosts SEA off this week's TNF game at home before a huge 8-day rest advantage when they go to NE who will be off a short week thanks to MNF @NYJ. A rest advantage again comes up vs MIA before the already discussed 3-day disadvantage vsBAL.
Rest favors BAL, but it is closer than it was at the beginning of the season.
A lot can be said about all the primetime games CLE has this season, but it finishes its MNF schedule this week and lost vsLAR on SNF. Though the effect may come over the length of the season, this leaves only a home game vs a weakened PIT team on TNF in Week 11 barring a flexed Sunday game. NBC may want to do that in Week 16 because that BAL@CLE game may be for the division, but that week 17 game @CIN is one of the better road games CLE can have (BAL vsPIT may be more competitive but being at home is fortunate for BAL). After the bye, BAL has all three of its primetime games. One each of MNF and TNF and then SNF vsNE will probably stick and not be flexed. The primetime narrative can probably be flipped here to actually being a big advantage to CLE, for whatever that is worth.
Full schedules here:
Still like CLE quite a bit. In terms of when to lock this in, I'm worried that a team at the top of a division with a tiebreaker in hand getting more odds than current-day 2nd place won't last for long.
Then we move to the common games and they are as follows:
Games not shared:
CLE from 145 to 130 to 165 to 125, which is higher than BAL despite last week's road win. Think there's been a lot of venom toward Kitchens and Baker, but they handled a tough start very well with that big win last week. BAL is not the defense it was last year, may improve with Jimmy Smith's return but that doesn't seem to be immediate after not practicing last week and it has beaten two of the worst teams in the league, which show up later on CLE schedule. CLE has injuries concerns of its own with Landry in the concussion protocol this week, both projected starting CBs (Ward, G. Williams) were inactive @BAL along with a 2019 4th round DB and free agent acquisition Morgan Burnett. CLE spent a ton of its cap on the defense and more specifically on its DL this year, but that secondary needs to get back to health ASAP. The two CBs and Burnett haven't played since Week 2, but there seems to be some relatively unheralded depth there who have been grading really well according to PFF.
As for the rest of the division, CIN is in the running for the 1st overall pick, PIT may only be 1 GB but without Roethlisberger I'm not afraid of a gadget offense orchestrated by Mike Tomlin and staff.
BAL has a division winner's schedule, CLE a 3rd place.
Rest edge favors BAL, who is better rested this week @PIT and vsNE, but also has three extra days in the rematch @CLE after hosting NYJ on TNF. That's a big deal. They are at a rest disadvantage @CIN who is off a bye, which could be a bit of a trap game after the bye into NE. BAL shouldn't lose that game, but the same thing happens the next week when BAL hosts HOU off its bye. MNF @LAR is going to be a tough game and that gives BAL a short week when it hosts SF next before @BUF has a few extra days to lick its wounds off a TNF game @DAL.
Meanwhile, CLE is certainly in trouble that BAL has extra time to prepare for them. Could see CLE looking ahead a bit to that game, but fortunately the previous game is against lowly ARI. It is in the desert and good teams have slipped there before, but thankfully it could be a lot worse. CLE also has one of its rest deficiency games out of the way from its victory @BAL, but gets SF this week on the road off a bye. CLE hosts SEA off this week's TNF game at home before a huge 8-day rest advantage when they go to NE who will be off a short week thanks to MNF @NYJ. A rest advantage again comes up vs MIA before the already discussed 3-day disadvantage vsBAL.
Rest favors BAL, but it is closer than it was at the beginning of the season.
A lot can be said about all the primetime games CLE has this season, but it finishes its MNF schedule this week and lost vsLAR on SNF. Though the effect may come over the length of the season, this leaves only a home game vs a weakened PIT team on TNF in Week 11 barring a flexed Sunday game. NBC may want to do that in Week 16 because that BAL@CLE game may be for the division, but that week 17 game @CIN is one of the better road games CLE can have (BAL vsPIT may be more competitive but being at home is fortunate for BAL). After the bye, BAL has all three of its primetime games. One each of MNF and TNF and then SNF vsNE will probably stick and not be flexed. The primetime narrative can probably be flipped here to actually being a big advantage to CLE, for whatever that is worth.
Full schedules here:
| BAL | CLE |
|---|---|
| mia | TEN |
| ARI | nyj |
| kc | LAR |
| CLE | bal |
| pit | sf |
| CIN | SEA |
| sea | open |
| open | ne |
| NE | den |
| cin | BUF |
| HOU | PIT |
| lar | MIA |
| SF | pit |
| buf | CIN |
| NYJ | ari |
| cle | BAL |
| PIT | cin |
Still like CLE quite a bit. In terms of when to lock this in, I'm worried that a team at the top of a division with a tiebreaker in hand getting more odds than current-day 2nd place won't last for long.
Then we move to the common games and they are as follows:
- MIA both home = BAL 1-0
- ARI home BAL, road CLE = BAL 1-0
- SEA road BAL, home CLE
- NE home BAL, road CLE
- LAR road BAL, home CLE = CLE 0-1
- SF home BAL, road CLE
- BUF road BAL, home CLE
- NYJ home BAL, road CLE = CLE 1-0
Games not shared:
- KC road BAL = BAL 0-1
- HOU home BAL
- TEN home CLE = CLE 0-1
- DEN road CLE
