Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
This line opened Baltimore Ravens -3.5 and currently sits at -3.5/-4. Utilizing (GPF) Generic Points Favored (what you would expect a team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site) based on the market, the line would be Baltimore (+6.5) minus Kansas City (+4.8) equals a point spread of Baltimore -1.7 which would put the assumed market line at Baltimore -1.5/-2.
Comparing that to the Baltimore -3.5/-4 current line we have about a 2 point differential. GPF market line minus current book line. Again, that's considering the game played on a neutral site and no points added for home field.
(HFA) Home Field Advantage used to be considered 2.5/3 points for NFL games but I believe it's now, based on my research, closer to 1.5 points depending on the teams playing and the venue. If we hypothetically add 1.5 points for HFA to our GPF market line we would have a pointspread of Baltimore -3.2, or -3/-3.5 which is exactly where the line opened.
The book line appears to be very tight and right on where the number should be. If a bet was made today I'd be ON Baltimore Ravens -3.5 small. Reason is, I side with the book rather than the GPF market line.
I'll be posting the same info for the Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers game momentarily.
This line opened Baltimore Ravens -3.5 and currently sits at -3.5/-4. Utilizing (GPF) Generic Points Favored (what you would expect a team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site) based on the market, the line would be Baltimore (+6.5) minus Kansas City (+4.8) equals a point spread of Baltimore -1.7 which would put the assumed market line at Baltimore -1.5/-2.
Comparing that to the Baltimore -3.5/-4 current line we have about a 2 point differential. GPF market line minus current book line. Again, that's considering the game played on a neutral site and no points added for home field.
(HFA) Home Field Advantage used to be considered 2.5/3 points for NFL games but I believe it's now, based on my research, closer to 1.5 points depending on the teams playing and the venue. If we hypothetically add 1.5 points for HFA to our GPF market line we would have a pointspread of Baltimore -3.2, or -3/-3.5 which is exactly where the line opened.
The book line appears to be very tight and right on where the number should be. If a bet was made today I'd be ON Baltimore Ravens -3.5 small. Reason is, I side with the book rather than the GPF market line.
I'll be posting the same info for the Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers game momentarily.
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