NFL Championship Round Plays...

[emkee]

4-3 (+2.96)

1-2 last week.

First up...

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

The play...

Patriots ML -154 (4 to win 2.6)

Random incoherent thoughts as it's way late.

Went ML based on all the numbers even though I like the Pats by 6+.

Bad numbers all round for the Doncs based on how Vegas sees it.

Juiced 2.5 only around 10 cents better.

Also the K.I.S.S method comes into play, which QB do I trust more with my money ?

Chicken Parm dogged at home for a reason, his weak passes wobble and he's 1-6 ATS in the playoffs off a win.

Doncs' O-Line stinks.

Tom built to beat good defenses, he and Beliache pride themselves on this.

Champ round is generally the squarest of them all, although 'square' imo is taking the 1-seed getting points at home.

Fuck Hochuli.

Will add more later.

opcorn:

 

[emkee]

Playoff teams that won as a home favorite and are a home dog the following round are 1-11 SU (3-9 ATS).

Playoff teams that won as a home favorite and are an away fave the following round are 12-3 SU (11-4 ATS).

Playoff home dogs with an equal or greater record than their opponent are 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS).

Playoff home teams that were outgained at home in their previous game are 9-26 ATS.

Favorites in the Championship Round are 22-8 SU (17-12-1 ATS).

 

[deuce's wild]

GL Em

 

[Tito]

"fuck Hochuli", haha


gl emkee....

 

[TreyDawg]

GL Emkee

 

[smh212]

I'm on DEN +9 in a tease. Sitting here like a fool waiting for a 3.5 that is never gonna come up!! GL today!

 

[emkee]

I'm on DEN +9 in a tease. Sitting here like a fool waiting for a 3.5 that is never gonna come up!! GL today!

Thanks man.

Can't do it. Vegas setting the line for the 1-seed home team at +3 is either their biggest okie-doke or straight bait.

There is resistance with most of the -3's getting +money, which is a good sign.

Will take a 7-point Pats win.

Bovada has 4, 5-Dimes has 3.5

 

[emkee]

Gonna go down with my ship.

2nd consecutive shitty season.

Panthers -3

 

[emkee]

Special teams the difference.