Warning - the following content contains violence, strong language, smoking and nudity. It may not be suitable for Pittsburgh audiences.
(Okay, maybe not so much on the language, violence, and nudity stuff, but if you're a Steeler fan you definitely don't want to read on. And if you do, well - don't shoot the messenger.)
I added two picks to my NFL dance card last night. Both plays against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
First up, the Regular Season Win total.
I don't like laying my money out for an entire season so I don't do a lot of bets that I won't get paid for until four months down the road (if I win.)
I already have one Regular Season Wins bet posted here, USC Under, shared in LVMike's RSW Unders thread.
I'm adding one more - Pittsburgh.
To come up with my bet I used the same method as when I was making odds in Vegas.
I looked at the team's schedule and researched their opponents.
Then I marked a capital W next to the games I thought they would win.
The games I thought they had a 50/50 chance of winning I marked with a lowercase w.
Then I added up the W's and w's and matched my number to what the books are offering.
And there was enough of a gap between the two to make me lay my money down on the Under.
The only gimme's I see are wins against the Chargers and Giants, and a loss to KC.
Every other game could go either way.
When looking at season win totals I like playing the Under on teams with a coach on the hot seat. There's tremendous pressure on every NFL coach in every game, but when job security is in question the pressure increases tenfold. And with increased pressure comes mistakes, in play calling and player personnel decisions.
Rumors about Pittsburgh dumping Tomlin started two years ago when the Steelers finished 9-8 and didn't make the playoffs. They were heard again last year when the Steelers lost three straight down the stretch and were in danger of missing the playoffs again before winning their final three. They made the postseason but got eliminated in the wild card round. I expect somewhere around mid-season we're going to start hearing those rumors again.
But coaches and schedules aside, I wagered this Pittsburgh team Under largely because they're entering the season without a reliable quarterback.
I think Russell Wilson is shot.
Watching him last year he reminded me of a boxer at the end of his career. Fighters seemingly grow old in one night, in one fight.
You can see the difference in the ring.
The reflexes are a little slower.
Most importantly, the hunger is gone.
When you're young and poor it's easy to get out of bed to do your road work at 5:00 a.m. before heading into the gym to train all day.
But after you've risen to the top and your bank account has six or seven zeros in it, when the alarm goes off at 5:00 a.m. you hit the snooze button. The hunger is gone.
And that's where I see Russell Wilson, his best days are behind him and it's all downhill from here.
And Fields? He's too one-dimensional.
We saw it again last week in the second game of the preseason. Buffalo allowed Fields a few good runs before they made a change to the defense and put a spy on him. After that he was no longer effective. Take away his scrambling and he's not going to beat you with his arm.
When Russell stumbles and Tomlin turns to Fields, Pittsburgh fans are going to see exactly why Chicago dumped him.
There's a reason quarterbacks are the most high profile, most highly paid player in the sport. It's because as the quarterback goes, so goes the team (unless you have a D like the '85 Bears.)
And with Wilson and Fields at quarterback this Pittsburgh team is going nowhere.
I don't see either of these two getting the Steelers to nine wins.
I'm not only taking them Under for season wins but I'm also betting against them in week one.
I think the suckage commences straight out of the starting gate. Right now you can still get the Atlanta Falcons at home -2', but the number is going up and will be -3 everywhere by kickoff so I'm buying it now.
The best price on Pittsburgh Under is a rare -135 but most books have it higher.
If you're going to lay out your money get the best price possible.
Ya gotta have multiple books to bet at!
I'm not a Steeler hater, I have no feelings about them one way or another. They're just another team in the league to me. I just don't see them having a good year with Wilson and/or Fields at the controls.
But I could be wrong.
It's sports betting - ANYTHING can happen. Even the mighty Steelers winning eight or fewer. (Yes, "fewer" not "less," making this post a two-fer, ya get picks and a grammar lesson.)
Pittsburgh regular season wins under 8', -140
Atl -2'
(Okay, maybe not so much on the language, violence, and nudity stuff, but if you're a Steeler fan you definitely don't want to read on. And if you do, well - don't shoot the messenger.)
I added two picks to my NFL dance card last night. Both plays against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
First up, the Regular Season Win total.
I don't like laying my money out for an entire season so I don't do a lot of bets that I won't get paid for until four months down the road (if I win.)
I already have one Regular Season Wins bet posted here, USC Under, shared in LVMike's RSW Unders thread.
I'm adding one more - Pittsburgh.
To come up with my bet I used the same method as when I was making odds in Vegas.
I looked at the team's schedule and researched their opponents.
Then I marked a capital W next to the games I thought they would win.
The games I thought they had a 50/50 chance of winning I marked with a lowercase w.
Then I added up the W's and w's and matched my number to what the books are offering.
And there was enough of a gap between the two to make me lay my money down on the Under.
The only gimme's I see are wins against the Chargers and Giants, and a loss to KC.
Every other game could go either way.
When looking at season win totals I like playing the Under on teams with a coach on the hot seat. There's tremendous pressure on every NFL coach in every game, but when job security is in question the pressure increases tenfold. And with increased pressure comes mistakes, in play calling and player personnel decisions.
Rumors about Pittsburgh dumping Tomlin started two years ago when the Steelers finished 9-8 and didn't make the playoffs. They were heard again last year when the Steelers lost three straight down the stretch and were in danger of missing the playoffs again before winning their final three. They made the postseason but got eliminated in the wild card round. I expect somewhere around mid-season we're going to start hearing those rumors again.
But coaches and schedules aside, I wagered this Pittsburgh team Under largely because they're entering the season without a reliable quarterback.
I think Russell Wilson is shot.
Watching him last year he reminded me of a boxer at the end of his career. Fighters seemingly grow old in one night, in one fight.
You can see the difference in the ring.
The reflexes are a little slower.
Most importantly, the hunger is gone.
When you're young and poor it's easy to get out of bed to do your road work at 5:00 a.m. before heading into the gym to train all day.
But after you've risen to the top and your bank account has six or seven zeros in it, when the alarm goes off at 5:00 a.m. you hit the snooze button. The hunger is gone.
And that's where I see Russell Wilson, his best days are behind him and it's all downhill from here.
And Fields? He's too one-dimensional.
We saw it again last week in the second game of the preseason. Buffalo allowed Fields a few good runs before they made a change to the defense and put a spy on him. After that he was no longer effective. Take away his scrambling and he's not going to beat you with his arm.
When Russell stumbles and Tomlin turns to Fields, Pittsburgh fans are going to see exactly why Chicago dumped him.
There's a reason quarterbacks are the most high profile, most highly paid player in the sport. It's because as the quarterback goes, so goes the team (unless you have a D like the '85 Bears.)
And with Wilson and Fields at quarterback this Pittsburgh team is going nowhere.
I don't see either of these two getting the Steelers to nine wins.
I'm not only taking them Under for season wins but I'm also betting against them in week one.
I think the suckage commences straight out of the starting gate. Right now you can still get the Atlanta Falcons at home -2', but the number is going up and will be -3 everywhere by kickoff so I'm buying it now.
The best price on Pittsburgh Under is a rare -135 but most books have it higher.
If you're going to lay out your money get the best price possible.
Ya gotta have multiple books to bet at!
I'm not a Steeler hater, I have no feelings about them one way or another. They're just another team in the league to me. I just don't see them having a good year with Wilson and/or Fields at the controls.
But I could be wrong.
It's sports betting - ANYTHING can happen. Even the mighty Steelers winning eight or fewer. (Yes, "fewer" not "less," making this post a two-fer, ya get picks and a grammar lesson.)
Pittsburgh regular season wins under 8', -140
Atl -2'
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