Colin Wynner
Pretty much a regular
I play in a fairly large pick ‘em pool, (1216 players this week) where you pick 6 games a week (both CFB and NFL available) based on static, posted lines as of Thursday AM. I have used the picks in this pool to drive some plays and thought I post for the group, I did a similar one in the NFL forum.
The pool has gotten “sharper” over the years but I would say in general it is a square pool. Not sure any of this is earth shattering information, as most of us can tell where the public is betting but this is another confirmation.
Here is the breakdown of this weeks NFL picks:
Thoughts -
I felt like this was a tough week as a lot of light spreads/coin-flips and a ton of uncertainty, as most didn't play many starters in the pre-season.
Worth noting that we rarely see stale lines in the NFL (I consider a "stale" line anything 2 points or more from the Thursday AM posting). This week Lions move to 4.5, crosses 4, which is a key number, Bengals are down to 7.5, which crosses 8. Other than that not much movement as of the pick deadline.
Over the last 10 seasons, NFL week one has been very profitable for dogs:
Dogs overall: 84-67 55.6%
Road Dogs: 54-39 58.1%
Divisional Dogs: 36-15 70.6%
Divisional Road Dogs: 22-11 66.7% (Raiders and Panthers)
Divisional Home Dogs: 14-4 77.8% (Colts)
My PIcks:
Panthers +4
Titans +3.5
Lions -3.5
Good luck!
The pool has gotten “sharper” over the years but I would say in general it is a square pool. Not sure any of this is earth shattering information, as most of us can tell where the public is betting but this is another confirmation.
Here is the breakdown of this weeks NFL picks:
Game/Spread | Fav_Picks | Dog_Picks | FAV_Pct | DOG_Pct | Total Picks | Rank | NOTE |
| 49ers -4.5 over Jets | 173 | 112 | 60.7% | 39.3% | 285 | 1 | Favorite Majority |
| Lions -3.5 over Rams | 224 | 56 | 80.0% | 20.0% | 280 | 2 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Bills -6.5 over Cardinals | 174 | 79 | 68.8% | 31.2% | 253 | 3 | Favorite Majority |
| Broncos +6 over Seahawks | 122 | 129 | 48.6% | 51.4% | 251 | 4 | Public Dog (Even) |
| Dolphins -3.5 over Jaguars | 202 | 44 | 82.1% | 17.9% | 246 | 5 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Eagles -2 over Packers | 175 | 65 | 72.9% | 27.1% | 240 | 6 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Bears -4 over Titans | 128 | 108 | 54.2% | 45.8% | 236 | 7 | Even Action |
| Texans -3 over Colts | 175 | 56 | 75.8% | 24.2% | 231 | 8 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Cowboys +2.5 over Browns | 67 | 154 | 30.3% | 69.7% | 221 | 9 | Public Dog |
| Falcons -3.5 over Steelers | 133 | 60 | 68.9% | 31.1% | 193 | 10 | Favorite Majority |
| Saints -4 over Panthers | 121 | 68 | 64.0% | 36.0% | 189 | 11 | Favorite Majority |
| Bengals -8.5 over Patriots | 144 | 25 | 85.2% | 14.8% | 169 | 12 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Bucs -3.5 over Commanders | 122 | 31 | 79.7% | 20.3% | 153 | 13 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Ravens +3 over Chiefs | 73 | 78 | 48.3% | 51.7% | 151 | 14 | Public Dog |
| Chargers -3 over Raiders | 115 | 29 | 79.9% | 20.1% | 144 | 15 | Lop-Sided Favorite |
| Vikings -1.5 over Giants | 83 | 57 | 59.3% | 40.7% | 140 | 16 | Favorite Majority |
Thoughts -
I felt like this was a tough week as a lot of light spreads/coin-flips and a ton of uncertainty, as most didn't play many starters in the pre-season.
Worth noting that we rarely see stale lines in the NFL (I consider a "stale" line anything 2 points or more from the Thursday AM posting). This week Lions move to 4.5, crosses 4, which is a key number, Bengals are down to 7.5, which crosses 8. Other than that not much movement as of the pick deadline.
Over the last 10 seasons, NFL week one has been very profitable for dogs:
Dogs overall: 84-67 55.6%
Road Dogs: 54-39 58.1%
Divisional Dogs: 36-15 70.6%
Divisional Road Dogs: 22-11 66.7% (Raiders and Panthers)
Divisional Home Dogs: 14-4 77.8% (Colts)
My PIcks:
Panthers +4
Titans +3.5
Lions -3.5
Good luck!
