NFL 2020 ~ Week 4

[mrpickem]

Had my first winning week in NFL last week, but still lots of work to be done. Overall theme, overs RULE!

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Week 3 - [9-6 +6.53u]​ Season - [18-26 -44.65u]​

252 Chicago Bears* +3 -105 vs Indianapolis Colts 4.2/4 253 New Orleans Saints* -3 +100 vs Detroit Lions 4/4 253 New Orleans Saints/Detroit Lions* Over 54 -105 4.2/40 255 Arizona Cardinals/Carolina Panthers* Over 51½ -103 4.12/4 257 Jacksonville Jaguars* +2½ -105 vs Cincinnati Bengals 4.2/4 259 Cleveland Browns/Dallas Cowboys* Over 56 -103 4.12/4 260 Dallas Cowboys* -3½ -109 vs Cleveland Browns 4.36/4 261 Minnesota Vikings* +3½ -110 vs Houston Texans 4.4/4 261 Minnesota Vikings/Houston Texans* Over 53½ -108 4.32/4 263 Seattle Seahawks/Miami Dolphins* Under 54½ -102 4.08/4 265 Los Angeles Chargers* +7 +100 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4/4 265 Los Angeles Chargers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers* Under 42 -105 4.2/4 275 Buffalo Bills/Las Vegas Raiders* Over 53 -108 4.32/4 277 Philadelphia Eagles/San Francisco 49ers* Over 45 -105 4.2/4 280 Green Bay Packers* -6½ -108 vs Atlanta Falcons 6.48/6

 

[SIGO]

Hell yeah.

 

[B.A.R.]

Big card, have a big day!

 

[mrpickem]

Random thoughts/ considering...

• Russel Wilson o2.5 Pass TD - Wilson on absolute fire, throwing 4, 5, 5 TDs in the first 3 games of the season and with both Carson and Hyde questionable but likely to play...SEA likely relies on the pass game a little more, plus Miami fields the 9th worse pass D this season statistically.
• Chargers are a good team to back as a dog . Anthony Lynn with Chargers is 8-4-2 ATS as a dog, plus the Chargers rarely lose by big margin. Even during last years 11 loss season, only twice did they lose by 7 or more. Bucs rep of a high flying offense due to the big names of Tom Brady, Gronk, Evans, Godwin... but in reality the Bucs are a defensive minded team with the offense still not clicking. Their o-line is pretty average, and Brady while still serviceable is not the Brady of old. No QB had a larger drop in completion % last year when under pressure than Brady. He also had 3rd biggest drop off in YPA when pressured. No improvement yet this season while averaging 3.4 YPA under pressure, and LAC rank 3rd in pressure rate. Bucs have great D, but Justin Herbert has thrown for 7.8 YPA so far this season, and breathed some life into their passing game. In the only game where I played the under, points will be at a premium for both teams, which favors the dog catching 7.
• Even though HOU has played the toughest schedule so far, their D still blows and I just can't see laying point with a team that cant stop anyone. HOU 5.2 yards per rush attempt. Also Coach Zimmer is a way better Coach O’Brien. Texans are only 4-11-1 ATS since 2018 after a road game (1-7 last year and 2-10 when line less than 7).

 

[mrpickem]

adds​
	281 New England Patriots* +12 -107 vs Kansas City Chiefs 4/3.74 281 New England Patriots/Kansas City Chiefs* Under 48½ -105 3/2.86