NFL #12

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
LIONS +3 -105 holding out for better----------so det played like crap and barely lost to gb and gave them a gift cover...love sending a message to Titus Young. Houston had the tough SNF game in chicago , the OT game w 12 extra minutes vs Jax and now a short week to face det.....

OVER 47 @DALLAS------never good for a defense to play OT but short week as well for dallas....2 inconsistent offenses dripping w potential and a skins def that can only make so many plays each week= better then advertised but if up teams score vs them eventually so at the end of the day somehow they allow points--philly was no test imo


Interests---

Titans----what was this jax 3rd road OT loss? Everyone expects Jax to play well here because of Henne and he has looked solid going back to relief role vs colts. Problem is that was a crushing loss for anyone (up 2 tds in the 4th) and the extra session is draining plus titans off a bye.Which Locker got reps after long layoff...home away means zero here....

maybe Atlanta because TB is the new OVER HYPED TEAM IMO

maybe Oak if they get healthy somehow on defense= trust me check that injury report past few weeks its not a mystery why they got shredded

KC has covered when getting a decent amount of points saints ravens pitt and blasted as small pups like fg range or less.....denver just wants the win here and get out of kc healthy.....

maybe rams because how can I lay points w a team who had 70yds passing on oike 30attempts and pulled their qb up 13-0?//





 
Tampa's a weak home team to spot a PK against ATL as early as week 12...week 14 with ATL at 11-1 maybe....think this is a good spot for Tampa to come out nice n flat
 
LOVE the toatal nut....

Washington's weakness in their secondary plays right into Dallas's hands. Cowboys don't have it in them to blow anyone out and RG3 really hit his stride last week in converting scoring opportunities. Think it's a close, high scoring affair....something like 31-28 feels right
 
IvyinBarondise said:
LOVE the toatal nut....

Washington's weakness in their secondary plays right into Dallas's hands. Cowboys don't have it in them to blow anyone out and RG3 really hit his stride last week in converting scoring opportunities. Think it's a close, high scoring affair....something like 31-28 feels right
Click to expand...

Good Luck, yep that's what I'm thinking.....Happy Thanksgiving
 
Turkey Day

Lions +3.5 500

o23 -115 Lions TT 100

o47 Dallas 400

THEN.......
Titans -2.5 -115 300/ ML -160 100

will be on atlanta waiting wont lose -1 though

GL all.....be back w more
 
IvyinBarondise said:
LOVE the toatal nut....

Washington's weakness in their secondary plays right into Dallas's hands. Cowboys don't have it in them to blow anyone out and RG3 really hit his stride last week in converting scoring opportunities. Think it's a close, high scoring affair....something like 31-28 feels right
Click to expand...

I fell like this is more that Eagles suck....That bomb he threw(RG3)...Wow...He actually closed his eyes and head went to the ground....not convinced

I hear you guys on the over...think yall convinced me

BUT I may have Boys as well...still debating

Good to see U here SN

U the man,

Twinkie13
 
Hostess13 said:
I fell like this is more that Eagles suck....That bomb he threw(RG3)...Wow...He actually closed his eyes and head went to the ground....not convinced

I hear you guys on the over...think yall convinced me

BUT I may have Boys as well...still debating

Good to see U here SN

U the man,

Twinkie13
Click to expand...


I tend to agree w you about it being more about Eagles d but think where I credit Wash some is they had 31 pts on just 50 plays. If it's say NE running 50 plays and getting 31 points not much to make of it. Moss gets a jump ball and robinson was insanely wide open but you still have to execute.....and they kinda did from kickoff......I kinda feel worse case we see 27/28 to 20/21.....not sure what side I like but would guess dallas has the slight edge......short weeek for dallas defense hurts off OT + they never played RG III....wash lost meriweather again going back to the kid who started the 1st 3 games.....which was ugly

GL Twinkie, happy thanksgiving too
 
w det and fading houston ........simple point = they lost cushing a few weeks back and his replacement. Now Joseph is hurting and may not even play on a short week vs Megatron who is on fire............so that defense cant be expected to simple bounce back or write off the jags game.......stafford had 2 bullshit int's I saw......wronge route and deflection......curious to see if this plays out like jets then gb did......I see a very similar setup.....big chalk to inferior team w weak offense but jets did sort of what jags did,then struggling gb comes in and smokes them , now its det in that role...........and gb is better but det is home unlike gb who was away......I expect det to end their thanksgiving cold streak

the texans lost to gb and were kinda lucky to catch ravens off 2 tough defensive injuries, bills gave them a game, they basically edged an over rated bears team who lost cutler and struggled vs jags......

Lions are one of my fav sides this week.......delmas returning would be gravy
 
also h2h skins are great getting points vs dallas ....think 4 straigt ats and dog is 8-2....still lean dallas
 
kinda lean jets .....On proboards last week you will see I pounded the pats again and again............you simply cannot compete w pats w/o a good defensive effort....starting w pressuring brady.......

the jets really need to start well to have a chance

situation is rough for pats w the short week imo but look at their road slate.......== 1 ATS loss only , kinda scary off a 59 pt game when they lost gronk...to be big chalk

look they played to OT already and jets should have won, brady threw 42 times for 250 something = very avg. pats are not running well but jets soft run d and ellis could be out........

what I do love is the under 49 would buy it from 48.5, gronk out, hernandez less then 100% , jets usually hold welker in check , kerley hammy issue , inconsistent ground games for both

I know belicheck would love to run it up on thanksgiving nite but hope he is not in position too........New York does have the benefit of a weak remaining schedule after this contest, with games against Arizona, Tennessee, San Diego, and Buffalo - all teams with 4-6 records - as well as a meeting with 1-9 Jacksonville.......huge huge game for the jets

YOU KNOW EVERY SQUARE WILL BET THE OVER and dont get me wrong that has no indication of it being a good or bad play its simply identifying a betting pattern........Pats d was decent last week and good after the 1st few drives and talib will continue to improve it..........

oddly vs brady just 6 times (23 games )did the Jets score more then 17 pts and just 4 times more then 21 but recently they have had more success in doing so + 6 of the 10 in ny saw pats score 24 or less.......15 games welker broke 100 just 3 times(above 66 yds just 2 others):seeya:......once in the last 6 meetings above 100 yds



UNDER 49 -120 BIG

maybe !st h too
 
Last edited:
even though gb has huge revenge like nyg due to the gb def issues....think ny badly needed the bye as they have been banged up all year......key point==giants have risen to the occassion repeatedly when doubted and big spot for them....gb lucky in det imo
 
add

reverse Lions / u 49 -120 pats 75
teaser Lions / u54.5 pats 150
reverse Lions / o47 skins -120 75
teaser Lions / u58.5 pats / o37.5 skins 150

1st H Lions +3 -120 150
 

Parlay all ML Lions 165, Giants -150, Atlanta -115 75 and 4 teamer w Titans -170 75
Same parlay using spreads each 50
 
If Stafford only had some touch....wow.........needs more air on his deep balls(1st q broyles 3rd down INC has to be better) but he just made some ridiculous throws on that drive
 
All along expected Lions to win SU so like them 2nd h but only some value left imo.....over det tt interesting ........houston def should not improve
 
have so much already tied into Detroit but I'll take +4 for 200......do like the over TT but feel like I missed the boat when I only have o23 game TT small....
 
that is just plain stupid so because he threw the challenge flag too early, we can't review it and make the correct call.....Just dumb
 
nice play calling.......these refs suck ---why is that idiot defender jumping on stafford from behind? they scored and didnt flag det for PI
 
SportsNut said:
Garcon playing and Felix Jones
Click to expand...

Guard Mackenzy Bernadeau has taken the majority of the reps with the first team this week and is expected to make his first career start at center. Veteran backup Derrick Dockery will go at right guard with Bernadeau at center.

Ogletree inactive too
 
probably rolling w dallas.....huge game w philly next week could put them at 7-5.......trends favor wash which here I like fading those trends = ie: ATS h2h, dallas at home ats..........​
 
and after boomer explained the logic behind it.....I am grateful that I dont wakeup a complete fucking moron everyday because clearly whoever comes up with these rules is......I cant believe this conversation actually got less intelligent. Worried about clock manipulation ? timeouts ?......great loophole what if they have timeouts , why not take away a TO but the best is we were going to review that play but cause you threw the flag , now we aren't! ....

houston was dead in the water till that play and shit playcalling by det also is to blame.....

I won and I am still pissed.....lol
 
thoughts on jets? seems a big number to lay short week, divisional game, on the road, and gronk out.
 
lean jets

short week not an issue IMO-------familiar opponents both teams fairly healthy

like the under better.....

Really not much to say , boils down to execution for the jets.......most of the time they dont on offense but have opportunity ...

basically I'm in the same boat as I was w dallas......felt the dallas game was a tad short and feel like pats are a tad strong w/o gronk......dallas didnt work out so I may just pass.......Jets D was solid in NE ....

Just not clear on a side

good luck
 
under 49 -120 New England 400
1st H u24 even 150

lean jets , like jets n under teeased

plus what I have pending teasers,reverse , parlays
 
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