NFC/AFC Championships

[BenchCoach]

I have only pulled the trigger on 1 prop so far...I want to line read through this morning before I make a decision. I don't think they will come off the number 3 today, bets will be reasonably split in both games. You might see one of the home teams bump a half point. I can tell you the state of Louisiana has been getting ready for today's game in full Cajun mode. I would expect to see a real circus in the Superdome today. Mardi Gras kickin into full gear this week along with this game and its a recipe for all the crazy drunk coon asses to come out in full force. The entire state is tailgaiting throughout the day. You can smell the grills cooking, Zydeco music blaring, and alcohol flowing throughout the neighborhood this morning...I may not take the Saints today but I sure wouldn't go against em. The home field advantage is gonna be stupid. This is easily the biggest football game in the state of Louisiana in the last 10 years. I have lived all over the US (including west Texas) and I can tell you nobody loves football like the folks in South Louisiana. It is very unique.

Great historical trend happening in the KC tonight and it makes my play a pretty simple decision. I will post it when I put it in. I also lean over but likely wont make that a play. My two prop bets in each game...I played a dime in the first game, if it losses I will add a nickel to the late game if it wins I will just keep the nickel only wager on the late game...have to go get my own grill fired up today, dig into that cold beer, and make sure the shine is ready to go for later...gl today guys

4101 Yardage of longest TD scored/. Under 49½ -120 ($1,200 to win $1,000)
6101 Yardage of longest TD scored/. Under 49½ -110 ($550 to win $500)

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck coach. Enjoy the day!

 

[Big_Degenerate]

Good luck coach. Always look forward to your insight.

 

[BenchCoach]

Throughout time in athletics fundamentals and defense have always been the one constant trait you find in Championship teams. It doesn't matter the sport. NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA (at least it used too, it would help if anyone tried to play defense at all). These two games today have big name characters leading the way. We all have preconceived notions about all of these teams. You have rookie qbs, Patirots, Andy Reid, Tom and Drew...Games like these I think its important to step back and find simple and logical reasons to pick the winner. Most years I have found after these games are over everyone is kicking themselves for not picking the winning side (it was so obvious). Think Fundamentals of gambling (stay away from heavy public favs, home teams, proven winner qbs not just guys we think will be winners, and weather), Think defense (recent and overall), and historical trends. Key stat for me today: Previous week when a team gives up >=265 yds passing they fail to cover the next week 67% of the time. Two teams fall into that category today. . Rams gave up 266 yds passing to the Prescott & the Cowboys (wonder what Drew will do).

 

[BenchCoach]

312 New Orleans Saints -3 -105 (nickel)

 

[austinhous]

Previous week when a team gives up >=265 yds passing they fail to cover the next week 67% of the time.

who told u this..? does this include week 17 as the previous week or is it playoffs exclusive?

 

[BenchCoach]

who told u this..? does this include week 17 as the previous week or is it playoffs exclusive?

I only use it involving playoffs games...As far as where I got it I couldn't tell ya. I write down notes throughout the year and at the end of the season if they have shown to be valuable I put em in my trend book. I have a journal in every sport with trends and systems that I use. It's my bible of sorts. I can tell you I have had this trend written down and have referenced it for at least the last 10 years. My old man passed down a lot of the long time historical trends to me as a youth. I am 4th generation gambler in my family. I imagine it would be possible to look this type of info up nowday's.

 

[BenchCoach]

Teams who score 40+ in a playoff game are 5-25-1 ATS in their next game, going back to 1990.
When that 40+ point game is a divisional playoff game, that team is 2-11-1 ATS in the conference title game.
The Chiefs are allowing 17.4 PPG at home this season as opposed to 34.6 PPG away; and .600 or greater home teams in the playoffs that have scored 30 or more points in each of their last three games are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points
Patriots: Away teams in the playoff coming off three straight home games are 0-13 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points

314 Kansas City Chiefs -3 -110 ($1,100 to win $1000)

 

[BenchCoach]

311 Los Angeles Rams Under 27 -118 ($539 to win $450)

 

[BenchCoach]

4101 Yardage of longest TD scored/. Under 49½ -120 ($1,200 to win $1,000)
312 New Orleans Saints -3 -105 ($525 to win $500)
311 Los Angeles Rams Under 27 -118 ($539 to win $450)
4723 T.Higbee receiving yards over 17½ -115 ($460 to win $400)

314 Kansas City Chiefs -3 -110 ($1,100 to win $1000)
6101 Yardage of longest TD scored/. Under 49½ -110 ($550 to win $500)

 

[Timh]

BOL Coach, with you on NO today.