Next opportunity....Charlotte/OKC Game...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
H.R. Pufnstuf
Pretty much a regular
What is this? LOL
So, at halftime we have
30% vs 35% shooting.
Combined 3's are 5-35 so far.
26 personal fouls so far keeping us in it.
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Generally in the 'new NBA' you do not see these sorts of ugly games too often for a full 48 minutes.
Even at 211.5, we are getting 19 points off the game total.
With the halftime total at ~113 we are at 205 as of now.
What I do here is set tiers. I look for around 20 points of variance currently for overs to start playing. Then, I'll increase the size as it gets lower. I am willing to make 3 bets on this game. My next mark will be around 199-201 or so Live in the 3rd quarter. That bet will cover and ensure profit. If a 3rd bet is needed, then I will wait for less than 195 (this is subject to change in the event of how much time is left and if there is a blowout ensuing).
Is it a guaranteed win? Absolutely not. You just have to trust that things will straighten out sometimes. Now, totals are inflated due to the pace of games right now. Sometimes correctly, other times not. Charlotte home games when I focus on them the last few years are generally pretty solid for getting Live Overs. The Miami one was easy the other night.
I still feel like the original bet is in play, fwiw.
It is a feel thing too, a giant third may have me buy back middle in some situations.
30% vs 35% shooting.
Combined 3's are 5-35 so far.
26 personal fouls so far keeping us in it.
----------------------------------------------------------
Generally in the 'new NBA' you do not see these sorts of ugly games too often for a full 48 minutes.
Even at 211.5, we are getting 19 points off the game total.
With the halftime total at ~113 we are at 205 as of now.
What I do here is set tiers. I look for around 20 points of variance currently for overs to start playing. Then, I'll increase the size as it gets lower. I am willing to make 3 bets on this game. My next mark will be around 199-201 or so Live in the 3rd quarter. That bet will cover and ensure profit. If a 3rd bet is needed, then I will wait for less than 195 (this is subject to change in the event of how much time is left and if there is a blowout ensuing).
Is it a guaranteed win? Absolutely not. You just have to trust that things will straighten out sometimes. Now, totals are inflated due to the pace of games right now. Sometimes correctly, other times not. Charlotte home games when I focus on them the last few years are generally pretty solid for getting Live Overs. The Miami one was easy the other night.
I still feel like the original bet is in play, fwiw.
It is a feel thing too, a giant third may have me buy back middle in some situations.
And if you did play the 195 number...you only need 46 points in the 4th.
That is why it is nice to get a discount in live betting. Or to gain value on an under (the aforementioned Bos-Det game the other night as an example).
Might have a chance to stab this one again, in Charlotte, if not hope for a wild 4th.
A 214 popped as well.
I took half off there so I have a half unit on over 211.5 to finish it off.
Obviously a middle opportunity is there as well to get both in.
Overall, I would have like to have needed a lot less going into the 4th but damage has been limited at worse and the opportunity to profit is there.
I took half off there so I have a half unit on over 211.5 to finish it off.
Obviously a middle opportunity is there as well to get both in.
Overall, I would have like to have needed a lot less going into the 4th but damage has been limited at worse and the opportunity to profit is there.
That hit by 6 points as well.
Now, last year anything 20-30 over was an auto-under but with the quickest pace ever it is a bit harder this year although not terrible.
Example, last night Dubs and Pels hit 259 at one point...went under...
Hawks and Kings looks like a blowout...I would need into 265+ to consider with these two teams though.
Example, last night Dubs and Pels hit 259 at one point...went under...
Hawks and Kings looks like a blowout...I would need into 265+ to consider with these two teams though.
That was what I was trying to do more than anything. I get questions of 'not posting bets' as much and it is mainly because Live betting is 80% plus of what I do in the NBA.
I love analyzing it and I feel my advantage is higher than most doing this (not cocky, just how I feel and have done the last 18-20 months doing it).
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Live betting is certainly yours and many forte and it should be, gives opportunities...I do not have it nor do I want it. And I understand it pretty well, but for the years I had it the brain turned into a pinball and I got all over the place, getting confused even and betting against myself taking both sides and eating juice w/o even realizing it lol
Just not cut out for that
Just not cut out for that
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
They have handhelds you can take to your seat at sportsbooks
