Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
So I did some coat tailing today, and, well, let's not talk about that, shall we.
Here are some things that jumped out at me today and over the week. The Pac 10 really is as good as advertised. BYU should have lost to a UCLA team with no motivation, Cal punished Air Force after not understanding what that option was about and spotting them 21, and Oregon with really no reason to be motivated at all laid the wood to a pretty good S. Florida team with a reason to prove they belonged where they were.
Now, it sort of sucks that there's only on Pac 10 team left, but that could spell good things for USC.
For me, the jury's still out on the Big 10. PSU won, which was good, although not unexpected. Purdue showed up pretty big when I didn't think they'd care much. But Michigan St. loses and IU got run over with sort of everything to play for.
Meanwhile, the SEC is what?
Southern Miss loses by 10, but KY struggles against an undermanned FSU, Alabama looks great, Auburn squeaks it out, what the hell is one to do with that?
Tomorrow we have what:
SEC vs. Big 10 in Tenny vs. Wisky.
SEC vs. Big XII with Arky vs. Mizzou.
ACC (Virginia) vs. Texas Tech.
USC vs. Illinois
Hawaii vs. Georgia.
Looking at each game let's see what we have:
Tenny v. Wisky
Better pass defense: Wisky
Better rushing offence: Wisky
Better coach: I go Wisky by default, and I'm not sure either guy is really fighting for his job, though Fulmer should be.
Key Seniors: Unless I'm way off, both teams' QBs are seniors, and the key senior thing seems to be a bit of a wash.
Conference strength: I would say the SEC is tougher than the Big 10 this year, but I think part of that is me feeling that last year the SEC was so very strong and that this year the Big 10 seemed unimpressive.
Like matchups: I don't know enough about either of these teams to tell you if they've played a team like each other, I could use some help here.
Motivation: Me, personally, I feel it's a wash, with neither team seeming more motivated than the other, but I could be wrong.
Simply based on the above, though it's not complete, I'd have to give the edge to Wisky. I may not bet it, but if I did I'd go Wisky ML unless someone can fill in something above to make me think different.
Mizzou vs. Arky
Better pass defense: Ark.
Better rushing offence: Ark.
Better coach: I go Mizzou, though McFadden sort of balances it out for me.
Key Seniors: McFadden. Tough to see this guy going out of his college career like a chump, particularly after not getting the Heisman.
Conference strength: I don't think the Big XII was very good this year, certainly not like the SEC.
Like matchups: Again, I don't know enough about either of these teams to tell you if they've played a team like each other, I could use some help here.
Motivation: I don't know who's motivated more. Mizzou because they got it handed to them against Oklahoma and Chase Daniel went from cover boy to doormat in a week, or McFadden because he didn't win the Heisman. I lean toward Arky a bit.
Out of conference schedule: Mizzou, easy. Arky's out of conference schedule blows. That said, Mizzou's really good out of conference wins were really early in the schedule.
Overall, I look at this and really like Arky. Particularly since Mizzou's run defense is decent, but it's still 26th in the country. Yes, this is ahead of a Georgia, but it's behind UCLA, Virginia, FSU, Wake Forest, and Boise St.
Gimmie Arkansas spread and ML.
Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Honestly, if somebody else wants to break this game down, go for it. This game really doesn't interest me much simply because I know NOTHING about Virginia.
Michigan vs. Florida
Better pass defense: Michigan (by a lot, at least in ranking)
Better rushing offence: Florida
Both of those numbers surprise me, by the way, these are all by yards per game.
Better coach: Uh, yeah, Florida, and not by a little bit.
Key Seniors: Florida has Andre Caldwell, but let's be honest, this game is about Mike Hart, Manningham (who has to come out, right?), and quite likely a little bit about Henne, though this year has proven him to be an exceptional p*ssy.
Conference strength: I lean SEC, pretty hard.
Like matchups: The only thing I can think of is UM vs. Illinois, which they did win and they did do it on the road. But for Florida, I'd say any of the poor throwing teams in the SEC, most of whom they beat.
Motivation: UM has to be motivated here losing guys like Hart, and maybe they want to win for Lloyd "I Suck" Carr. Florida, I'd think, is a little disappointed to be here given that they have at least two more losses than they figured they would. But they're young, they'll be back.
Out of conference schedule: Unimpressive, on both counts. Except for Appy St. As a Gator fan I'm glad we didn't have to match up with that powerhouse.
Overall: According to the cheat sheet this game should be closer than the spread. As a Gator fan, I hope it's not. I'll be interested to see if Urban coaches rings around Carr like he should, but I'm on the over (not according to the above) so I'll just hope for a lot of points.
USC vs. Illinois
Better pass defense: USC (by quite a bit)
Better rushing offence: University of Juice Williams
Better coach: Zook's done a great job this year, but I go Pete Carroll.
Key Seniors: Um, uh, well . . . ???
Conference strength: I go Pac 10
Like matchups: I'd have to say Oregon, but I think USC played them after the loss of Dixon which sort of kills that comparison. For Illinois? Not a clue.
Motivation: I don't know who's motivated more, USC hasn't had a great year, Illinois has. But after the season Pete Carroll will assuredly be linked with NFL jobs again so . . .
Out of conference schedule: USC, easy. At Lincoln. At South Bend. So what if those teams weren't very good this year, at least they seem to travel well. Although, Illinois can say they do too given what they did in the Horseshoe.
Overall I think I'm in that camp of, Pete Carroll is close to the Bill Belichick of college football and Juice Williams isn't Vince Young, yet. I also am not convinced that Illinois has the O-line that a Texas did.
Given the above, I'd have to say USC wins, but do they cover . . . ? Not sure.
Hawaii vs. Georgia
Better pass defense: Georgia
Better rushing offence: Georgia (Hawaii is, not shockingly, one of the worst rushing teams in the country by yardage)
Better coach: I don't think a lot of people like June Jones, but I like him in college. I'm going to say it's a wash. Maybe someone can set me straight.
Key Seniors: Colt Brennan. Somebody tell me who I'm missing from Georgia.
Conference strength: Not tough, Georgia.
Like matchups: Who the hell runs the Run & Shoot that Georgia could have played? Florida's the closest thing they're going to see, and they did beat 'em. For Hawaii, I'm not sure like matchups matter much because they're going to do what they do against whomever they play.
Motivation: Huge motivation on the Hawaii side, to prove they belong, for the unbeaten season, for Colt's final game. For Georgia, I'm sure they're motivated to end an unbeaten season, but they aren't winning a national title. This feels very much like Boise St. vs. Oklahoma.
Out of conference schedule: You know, I think it's closer than one would think. It's easy to say Hawaii doesn't play anyone because of their conference. And I'll agree with that, but they did have to play Jake Locker from Washington, which is a matchup problem for anybody. To me Georgia's in-conference schedule is more important than anything here. Their general schedule overall is dramatically superior to Hawaii.
Overall, I actually lean toward Hawaii here, maybe not to win, but to keep this thing close. Because they do things that can always keep you in a game, and that's throw the f**k out of the ball. They also don't give a f**k if they're down. Going off the sheet I think this thing is going to be closer than one thinks, but beyond that, I may look at the over because I'm not sure anybody can beat Hawaii without putting points up.
So that's what the sheet says, at least to me, thoughts appreciated. I know it isn't as simple as, 'bet this and you'll make money,' but things rarely are.
Good luck tomorrow.
Here are some things that jumped out at me today and over the week. The Pac 10 really is as good as advertised. BYU should have lost to a UCLA team with no motivation, Cal punished Air Force after not understanding what that option was about and spotting them 21, and Oregon with really no reason to be motivated at all laid the wood to a pretty good S. Florida team with a reason to prove they belonged where they were.
Now, it sort of sucks that there's only on Pac 10 team left, but that could spell good things for USC.
For me, the jury's still out on the Big 10. PSU won, which was good, although not unexpected. Purdue showed up pretty big when I didn't think they'd care much. But Michigan St. loses and IU got run over with sort of everything to play for.
Meanwhile, the SEC is what?
Southern Miss loses by 10, but KY struggles against an undermanned FSU, Alabama looks great, Auburn squeaks it out, what the hell is one to do with that?
Tomorrow we have what:
SEC vs. Big 10 in Tenny vs. Wisky.
SEC vs. Big XII with Arky vs. Mizzou.
ACC (Virginia) vs. Texas Tech.
USC vs. Illinois
Hawaii vs. Georgia.
Looking at each game let's see what we have:
Tenny v. Wisky
Better pass defense: Wisky
Better rushing offence: Wisky
Better coach: I go Wisky by default, and I'm not sure either guy is really fighting for his job, though Fulmer should be.
Key Seniors: Unless I'm way off, both teams' QBs are seniors, and the key senior thing seems to be a bit of a wash.
Conference strength: I would say the SEC is tougher than the Big 10 this year, but I think part of that is me feeling that last year the SEC was so very strong and that this year the Big 10 seemed unimpressive.
Like matchups: I don't know enough about either of these teams to tell you if they've played a team like each other, I could use some help here.
Motivation: Me, personally, I feel it's a wash, with neither team seeming more motivated than the other, but I could be wrong.
Simply based on the above, though it's not complete, I'd have to give the edge to Wisky. I may not bet it, but if I did I'd go Wisky ML unless someone can fill in something above to make me think different.
Mizzou vs. Arky
Better pass defense: Ark.
Better rushing offence: Ark.
Better coach: I go Mizzou, though McFadden sort of balances it out for me.
Key Seniors: McFadden. Tough to see this guy going out of his college career like a chump, particularly after not getting the Heisman.
Conference strength: I don't think the Big XII was very good this year, certainly not like the SEC.
Like matchups: Again, I don't know enough about either of these teams to tell you if they've played a team like each other, I could use some help here.
Motivation: I don't know who's motivated more. Mizzou because they got it handed to them against Oklahoma and Chase Daniel went from cover boy to doormat in a week, or McFadden because he didn't win the Heisman. I lean toward Arky a bit.
Out of conference schedule: Mizzou, easy. Arky's out of conference schedule blows. That said, Mizzou's really good out of conference wins were really early in the schedule.
Overall, I look at this and really like Arky. Particularly since Mizzou's run defense is decent, but it's still 26th in the country. Yes, this is ahead of a Georgia, but it's behind UCLA, Virginia, FSU, Wake Forest, and Boise St.
Gimmie Arkansas spread and ML.
Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Honestly, if somebody else wants to break this game down, go for it. This game really doesn't interest me much simply because I know NOTHING about Virginia.
Michigan vs. Florida
Better pass defense: Michigan (by a lot, at least in ranking)
Better rushing offence: Florida
Both of those numbers surprise me, by the way, these are all by yards per game.
Better coach: Uh, yeah, Florida, and not by a little bit.
Key Seniors: Florida has Andre Caldwell, but let's be honest, this game is about Mike Hart, Manningham (who has to come out, right?), and quite likely a little bit about Henne, though this year has proven him to be an exceptional p*ssy.
Conference strength: I lean SEC, pretty hard.
Like matchups: The only thing I can think of is UM vs. Illinois, which they did win and they did do it on the road. But for Florida, I'd say any of the poor throwing teams in the SEC, most of whom they beat.
Motivation: UM has to be motivated here losing guys like Hart, and maybe they want to win for Lloyd "I Suck" Carr. Florida, I'd think, is a little disappointed to be here given that they have at least two more losses than they figured they would. But they're young, they'll be back.
Out of conference schedule: Unimpressive, on both counts. Except for Appy St. As a Gator fan I'm glad we didn't have to match up with that powerhouse.
Overall: According to the cheat sheet this game should be closer than the spread. As a Gator fan, I hope it's not. I'll be interested to see if Urban coaches rings around Carr like he should, but I'm on the over (not according to the above) so I'll just hope for a lot of points.
USC vs. Illinois
Better pass defense: USC (by quite a bit)
Better rushing offence: University of Juice Williams
Better coach: Zook's done a great job this year, but I go Pete Carroll.
Key Seniors: Um, uh, well . . . ???
Conference strength: I go Pac 10
Like matchups: I'd have to say Oregon, but I think USC played them after the loss of Dixon which sort of kills that comparison. For Illinois? Not a clue.
Motivation: I don't know who's motivated more, USC hasn't had a great year, Illinois has. But after the season Pete Carroll will assuredly be linked with NFL jobs again so . . .
Out of conference schedule: USC, easy. At Lincoln. At South Bend. So what if those teams weren't very good this year, at least they seem to travel well. Although, Illinois can say they do too given what they did in the Horseshoe.
Overall I think I'm in that camp of, Pete Carroll is close to the Bill Belichick of college football and Juice Williams isn't Vince Young, yet. I also am not convinced that Illinois has the O-line that a Texas did.
Given the above, I'd have to say USC wins, but do they cover . . . ? Not sure.
Hawaii vs. Georgia
Better pass defense: Georgia
Better rushing offence: Georgia (Hawaii is, not shockingly, one of the worst rushing teams in the country by yardage)
Better coach: I don't think a lot of people like June Jones, but I like him in college. I'm going to say it's a wash. Maybe someone can set me straight.
Key Seniors: Colt Brennan. Somebody tell me who I'm missing from Georgia.
Conference strength: Not tough, Georgia.
Like matchups: Who the hell runs the Run & Shoot that Georgia could have played? Florida's the closest thing they're going to see, and they did beat 'em. For Hawaii, I'm not sure like matchups matter much because they're going to do what they do against whomever they play.
Motivation: Huge motivation on the Hawaii side, to prove they belong, for the unbeaten season, for Colt's final game. For Georgia, I'm sure they're motivated to end an unbeaten season, but they aren't winning a national title. This feels very much like Boise St. vs. Oklahoma.
Out of conference schedule: You know, I think it's closer than one would think. It's easy to say Hawaii doesn't play anyone because of their conference. And I'll agree with that, but they did have to play Jake Locker from Washington, which is a matchup problem for anybody. To me Georgia's in-conference schedule is more important than anything here. Their general schedule overall is dramatically superior to Hawaii.
Overall, I actually lean toward Hawaii here, maybe not to win, but to keep this thing close. Because they do things that can always keep you in a game, and that's throw the f**k out of the ball. They also don't give a f**k if they're down. Going off the sheet I think this thing is going to be closer than one thinks, but beyond that, I may look at the over because I'm not sure anybody can beat Hawaii without putting points up.
So that's what the sheet says, at least to me, thoughts appreciated. I know it isn't as simple as, 'bet this and you'll make money,' but things rarely are.
Good luck tomorrow.
