E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
63-39-3 +$7,068.17
The last 3 days have been bad for me at 2-5 but whatever its time to start over for the wk. Bullpens this yr are terrible.. On Sunday the Oriole bullpen pulled the biggest shaft job of them all and it killed me as a Yankee fan to see that. This is far from the first time now and I can't even give Bedard serious consideration unless he tells me before the game he is going 9innings. Following the Orioles are the Indians bullpen or Borowski giving up 5 runs in the 9th inning of Sundays game. Sportsline has Borowski as their feature article that says "Ignore the ERA, Joe Borowski can bring it" and I think its time they change that. If the Indians want to be a contender they better not ignore his ERA, he is a liability and can't make it as a closer in the rough AL. Lastly would be the Reds bullpen giving up 5runs in the 8th inning of a tied ballgame. Now I didn't have money on any of these teams but I think if you are backing a team with a bad bullpen and that is 75% of teams in MLB, you need to take a deeper consideration to what is going to happen in the 7-8-9 inning if you are not already.
LEANS:
Pitt -108: Line is rising a little bit. Cliff notes version is that Willis who is 5-2 has been received a lot of run support and sports a 5.40era. Pitt is not a strong home team (6-10) and Marlins are not a good away team (6-10)..Gorzelanny was lit up 1 time this yr to the tune of 5er in 6ip. His last start was stellar in which he received a loss after 7ip and 1er. Overall this yr Gorzelanny has shown to be pretty consistent. Willis has allowed atleast 4 runs in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 or more runs in every start this yr minus the first one vs. the Nationals. The Marlins who started off pretty hot on offense are coming back to earth after getting swept by the Nationals. Marlins might of lost a bat from the middle of the order Sunday in Jacobs who is questionable for the game today. Marlin bullpen and pitching staff as a whole is in shambles right now, as you can see they acquired Byrung Kim, lol. Anyway if Gorz goes 7 and Capps pitches 8 and Torres in the 9th then Pitt wins this game. Might hit this line tonight because I see a lot of value at -108 for the home team.
Reds Over 7.5 +100: A game where I would like the line to be bet down to 7 and I would prob play it. Belisle has been pretty great over his last 3 starts with a 2.45era and 17k-3bb. Pretty great numbers if you ask me. The light hitting Padres and Overs don't go together but I think with a low number of 7 and a combined offensive effort this game might get there. Maddux has been ok this yr and has a decent history vs some of the Reds bats:
Griffey (.355 in 31ab), Conine (.313 in 48ab), Freel (.296 in 27ab), Gonzalez (.209 in 43ab), Dunne (.184 in 38ab).
Now Dunn's #'s do suck but this offense and some of their bigger bats like Hamilton and Phillips can easily score 5 or more runs in this pitchers park. Now I think that Belisle goes 6 or so giving up 2 runs and the bullpen gives up about 2. Overall totals havent been my thing and got my ass handed to me on Sunday on two totals so maybe I am better off skipping this total.
RedSox -140: Two of the hottest teams in baseball square off in Boston and the price is more reasonable on Dice-K in this game.The BoSox have def edge in bullpen in this game. Dice K has struggled with control in his last 3 starts where he has walked 12 and struken out 16. However, Dice-K last start was more like what has been expected of him and I think that could be where he turns the page and goes on a run of good outtings. Last start he went 7 giving up 1er and 3bb w/ 8k. Robertson in 5 starts vs the BoSox is 1-2 w/ 6.75era. He was not sharp in his last outting and the BoSox are a hot team playing with the breaks of baseball on their side. BoSox hitters vs. Robertson:
Coco Crisp (.280 in 25ab), Youkilis (.400 in 10ab), Varitek (.333 in 6ab), Manny (.222 in 9ab), Ortiz (.071 in 14ab).
Royals +160: Meche was +122 at home in his last start vs. the A's and Haren in which the Royals won, now he is on the road and is +160 vs A's and Haren. The Royals while they are a bad team, they are pretty decent when Meche is on the mound. Meche has been more than reliable this yr and is living up to the contract for all that he can. Haren has been pretty great this yr as well. A's off a lucky win in the 9th and the Royals off a series with the White Sox where they should have taken it down but blew 1 of the games in the 9th, a def concern here for me but at this price the Royals have a fighting chance.
Cubs +133: Marquis has been brilliant this yr (5-1 w/ 1.70era) and Glavine should not be sold short either but the nod for me has to goto the dog in this game. Marquis last 3 games are excellent (3-0, 23.2ip, 1.52era, 10k, 3bb)..The Cubs bats can hit with the Mets but Mets will get the edge in bullpen as the Cubs are just outright awful sometimes. Glavine like Maddux has been pitching for decades so he has a long history vs most of the Cubs hitters:
Barrett (.229 in 35ab), DeRosa (.125 in 8ab), Floyd (.394 in 33ab), Izturis (.412 in 17ab), D. Lee (.288 in 52ab), Aramis (.500 in 20ab), Soriano (.375 in 16ab)
Mets hitters vs. Marquis:
Beltran (.143 in 14ab), Chavez (.200 in 10ab), Delgado (.600 in 5ab), Green (.318 in 22ab), LoDuca (.500 in 8ab), Reyes (.278 in 18ab), Wright (.214 in 14ab).
While I would expect the Mets to get some heavy backing tomorrow, Maquis might be too hard to pass up at +140 or more.
Dodgers - 144 / -1.5 +145: Undecided if I want to take a shot at the RL here but the Cardinals are not ready to turn things around yet. The offense is still ice cold and Thompson might be in AAA if it wasnt for last start. He made it through 5ip w/ 1er in his first start last game and overall has pitched better as of late but the Dodgers are the better team here and thats all there is to it. I am trying not to overthink this game.
Orioles -139: If this line came down I would give it more consideration but I am put off by how bad the Oriole bullpen is and simply don't trust my money on this team but Bedard has been real sharp as of late, real sharp.
The last 3 days have been bad for me at 2-5 but whatever its time to start over for the wk. Bullpens this yr are terrible.. On Sunday the Oriole bullpen pulled the biggest shaft job of them all and it killed me as a Yankee fan to see that. This is far from the first time now and I can't even give Bedard serious consideration unless he tells me before the game he is going 9innings. Following the Orioles are the Indians bullpen or Borowski giving up 5 runs in the 9th inning of Sundays game. Sportsline has Borowski as their feature article that says "Ignore the ERA, Joe Borowski can bring it" and I think its time they change that. If the Indians want to be a contender they better not ignore his ERA, he is a liability and can't make it as a closer in the rough AL. Lastly would be the Reds bullpen giving up 5runs in the 8th inning of a tied ballgame. Now I didn't have money on any of these teams but I think if you are backing a team with a bad bullpen and that is 75% of teams in MLB, you need to take a deeper consideration to what is going to happen in the 7-8-9 inning if you are not already.
LEANS:
Pitt -108: Line is rising a little bit. Cliff notes version is that Willis who is 5-2 has been received a lot of run support and sports a 5.40era. Pitt is not a strong home team (6-10) and Marlins are not a good away team (6-10)..Gorzelanny was lit up 1 time this yr to the tune of 5er in 6ip. His last start was stellar in which he received a loss after 7ip and 1er. Overall this yr Gorzelanny has shown to be pretty consistent. Willis has allowed atleast 4 runs in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 or more runs in every start this yr minus the first one vs. the Nationals. The Marlins who started off pretty hot on offense are coming back to earth after getting swept by the Nationals. Marlins might of lost a bat from the middle of the order Sunday in Jacobs who is questionable for the game today. Marlin bullpen and pitching staff as a whole is in shambles right now, as you can see they acquired Byrung Kim, lol. Anyway if Gorz goes 7 and Capps pitches 8 and Torres in the 9th then Pitt wins this game. Might hit this line tonight because I see a lot of value at -108 for the home team.
Reds Over 7.5 +100: A game where I would like the line to be bet down to 7 and I would prob play it. Belisle has been pretty great over his last 3 starts with a 2.45era and 17k-3bb. Pretty great numbers if you ask me. The light hitting Padres and Overs don't go together but I think with a low number of 7 and a combined offensive effort this game might get there. Maddux has been ok this yr and has a decent history vs some of the Reds bats:
Griffey (.355 in 31ab), Conine (.313 in 48ab), Freel (.296 in 27ab), Gonzalez (.209 in 43ab), Dunne (.184 in 38ab).
Now Dunn's #'s do suck but this offense and some of their bigger bats like Hamilton and Phillips can easily score 5 or more runs in this pitchers park. Now I think that Belisle goes 6 or so giving up 2 runs and the bullpen gives up about 2. Overall totals havent been my thing and got my ass handed to me on Sunday on two totals so maybe I am better off skipping this total.
RedSox -140: Two of the hottest teams in baseball square off in Boston and the price is more reasonable on Dice-K in this game.The BoSox have def edge in bullpen in this game. Dice K has struggled with control in his last 3 starts where he has walked 12 and struken out 16. However, Dice-K last start was more like what has been expected of him and I think that could be where he turns the page and goes on a run of good outtings. Last start he went 7 giving up 1er and 3bb w/ 8k. Robertson in 5 starts vs the BoSox is 1-2 w/ 6.75era. He was not sharp in his last outting and the BoSox are a hot team playing with the breaks of baseball on their side. BoSox hitters vs. Robertson:
Coco Crisp (.280 in 25ab), Youkilis (.400 in 10ab), Varitek (.333 in 6ab), Manny (.222 in 9ab), Ortiz (.071 in 14ab).
Royals +160: Meche was +122 at home in his last start vs. the A's and Haren in which the Royals won, now he is on the road and is +160 vs A's and Haren. The Royals while they are a bad team, they are pretty decent when Meche is on the mound. Meche has been more than reliable this yr and is living up to the contract for all that he can. Haren has been pretty great this yr as well. A's off a lucky win in the 9th and the Royals off a series with the White Sox where they should have taken it down but blew 1 of the games in the 9th, a def concern here for me but at this price the Royals have a fighting chance.
Cubs +133: Marquis has been brilliant this yr (5-1 w/ 1.70era) and Glavine should not be sold short either but the nod for me has to goto the dog in this game. Marquis last 3 games are excellent (3-0, 23.2ip, 1.52era, 10k, 3bb)..The Cubs bats can hit with the Mets but Mets will get the edge in bullpen as the Cubs are just outright awful sometimes. Glavine like Maddux has been pitching for decades so he has a long history vs most of the Cubs hitters:
Barrett (.229 in 35ab), DeRosa (.125 in 8ab), Floyd (.394 in 33ab), Izturis (.412 in 17ab), D. Lee (.288 in 52ab), Aramis (.500 in 20ab), Soriano (.375 in 16ab)
Mets hitters vs. Marquis:
Beltran (.143 in 14ab), Chavez (.200 in 10ab), Delgado (.600 in 5ab), Green (.318 in 22ab), LoDuca (.500 in 8ab), Reyes (.278 in 18ab), Wright (.214 in 14ab).
While I would expect the Mets to get some heavy backing tomorrow, Maquis might be too hard to pass up at +140 or more.
Dodgers - 144 / -1.5 +145: Undecided if I want to take a shot at the RL here but the Cardinals are not ready to turn things around yet. The offense is still ice cold and Thompson might be in AAA if it wasnt for last start. He made it through 5ip w/ 1er in his first start last game and overall has pitched better as of late but the Dodgers are the better team here and thats all there is to it. I am trying not to overthink this game.
Orioles -139: If this line came down I would give it more consideration but I am put off by how bad the Oriole bullpen is and simply don't trust my money on this team but Bedard has been real sharp as of late, real sharp.
Last edited:
