New system based on TIE's

$$$$inmywallett

$$$$inmywallett

Pretty much a regular
Okay, so basically since ties produce good return on bets, I am going to play a chase system on ties that will basically return 40 units per team for a goal of 1200 units by the end of the season. If I can return 40 units on a team, then I will stop chasing that team. Kind of hard to understand, but it will make sense during the chase. Also, can't really do any trending on this since there are no lines on TIES that I can find from the past, but I did some research and each team gets anywhere from 10 - 20+ ties per season. Also, did play the first four games of the season and they will be posted for record keeping for the total numbers. Also, before people start posting about bad system and all, I will understand, but this may prove to be profitable when the teams tie at a big unit risk.

Record: 1-3 (-1.8 Units)

10/04/08

Rangers/Lightning +305 Risking 2 to win 6.1 Units
Penguins/Senators +310 Risking 2 to win 6.2 Units

10/05/08

Lightning/Rangers +300 Risking 4 to win 12 Units
Senators/Penguins +295 Risking 2 to win 5.9 Units

10/9/08

Maple Leafs/Redwings +365 Risking 2 to win 7.3 Units
Bruins/Avalanche +315 Risking 2 to win 6.3 Units
Flames/Canucks +310 Risking 2 to win 6.2 Units
Ducks/Sharks +315 Risking 2 to win 6.3 Units
 
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I'm with you on these type of chase systems. My issue is I travel and end up missing plays here and there.

What kind of numbers did you find in regards to how many OT games there were last year? What was the longest streak a team went without a tie?

Is there something we can refine it from the start that if a team has gone 5 games without a tie, we then start a chase?
 
Diego12 said:
I'm with you on these type of chase systems. My issue is I travel and end up missing plays here and there.

What kind of numbers did you find in regards to how many OT games there were last year? What was the longest streak a team went without a tie?

Is there something we can refine it from the start that if a team has gone 5 games without a tie, we then start a chase?
Click to expand...

I think I came up with 12 games or something, but then there is a point were one team had 3 or so ties in 5 games.

Hopefully you can get all the games played as the lines on these games are posted as overnight lines where my +1 1/2 thread i played last year wasn't posted until the day of the game.
 
So you're playing 1unit on each team, so to start the year each game is 2units?

Double up system? Or since you're going to be at +300 most games you could increase by 1.5 or 1.75 and still turn some decent profit I would think?
 
good luck, $$$$.
i have some questions but i'll wait until i get a better grip on the system.

it looks like you hit on the first Pitt/Ott game, right?
 
ok, yes, you hit the first Pens/Ott game.

why did you play the second game? because of your 40 unit goal for each team?

thanks.
 
patternseeker said:
ok, yes, you hit the first Pens/Ott game.

why did you play the second game? because of your 40 unit goal for each team?

thanks.
Click to expand...

correct. and when you hit on a team, you reset back to 1 unit for that team, so in order to determine risked units, you add both teams units to risk to get that game's units risked.
 
One thing to look at is when a team ties they usually tie the next game. I have seen this happen a lot more then you may think.

One problem with this above theory is if a backup starts on back to back days. I have gotten screwed with that a few times.
 
Pucks said:
One thing to look at is when a team ties they usually tie the next game. I have seen this happen a lot more then you may think.

One problem with this above theory is if a backup starts on back to back days. I have gotten screwed with that a few times.
Click to expand...

thanks for the info, Pucks.
 
Interesting system, kinda scares me but then again I scare easily with these type of systems. Last year Carolina went 25 straight games without going to OT early in the year. And if I were to try this, I know a team would put up a similar run just to screw with my head. Good luck bro.
 
thanks for the good info Catfood. I think what I may do after tomorrow's wager's is drop my unit value down to allow for a big streak like that Carolina drought, although with my 40 unit goal, I would've reached that before the drought, funny enough.
 
Looks interesting... I will follow it for sure.

Let's win some money this season!!!

Good luck!:cheers:
 
$$$$inmywallett said:
thanks for the good info Catfood. I think what I may do after tomorrow's wager's is drop my unit value down to allow for a big streak like that Carolina drought, although with my 40 unit goal, I would've reached that before the drought, funny enough.
Click to expand...

I love these systems and this is intresting but come on man. There is no way in hell you are going to be able to afford to chase this system on a double up for more than say 5 or 6 games. And almost every team had sperts or 10-15 games with out a tie last year.

even at just $10 per unit you would be risking $640 on game 7 and like over 10K on game 11.

Not hating on this just looking to see if there is a better way to chase this.

last year the South east and Atlantic were much worse than the other 4 divisions for ties at least based on the first 20 games of the year.

Im off to bed but i think there is potential here. I have be doing a home and road team chase in hockey and basket ball for 2 years now with mixed results in hockey.Easter weekend Saturday 08 killed me last year so i was swearing off this.....but hockey is back and well.... This is a new twist and i like it. Lets figure something out and hammer the books!!!
 
I think it would be fair including in your signature last year of MLB..to save you some time I found the stats for you:

2008 MLB 100-2 (-390.24 Units) Running total 100-39 ---> (-415.8 Units)

I think it would be nice adding this, so newbies who could be interested in your systems could know what they are going into..
 
pokerrob said:
I love these systems and this is intresting but come on man. There is no way in hell you are going to be able to afford to chase this system on a double up for more than say 5 or 6 games. And almost every team had sperts or 10-15 games with out a tie last year.

even at just $10 per unit you would be risking $640 on game 7 and like over 10K on game 11.

Not hating on this just looking to see if there is a better way to chase this.

last year the South east and Atlantic were much worse than the other 4 divisions for ties at least based on the first 20 games of the year.

Im off to bed but i think there is potential here. I have be doing a home and road team chase in hockey and basket ball for 2 years now with mixed results in hockey.Easter weekend Saturday 08 killed me last year so i was swearing off this.....but hockey is back and well.... This is a new twist and i like it. Lets figure something out and hammer the books!!!
Click to expand...

I agree there could be potential. We need stats on how likelier teams are to go to OT after say 1-goal regulation wins or losses, 3 game or more roadtrips etc...Might make things safer.
 
FloppyBoy said:
I think it would be fair including in your signature last year of MLB..to save you some time I found the stats for you:

2008 MLB 100-2 (-390.24 Units) Running total 100-39 ---> (-415.8 Units)

I think it would be nice adding this, so newbies who could be interested in your systems could know what they are going into..
Click to expand...

quite right, floppy, i added it.
 
I did some research this morning and so far it seems this would be a much better play in the last 20 games of the year. The are many more ties as teams are fighting for every point and 3 point games are great. From what i can see there is no real way to chase this unless you can afford to bet at some point over 20,000 units on one game....lol

There might be merit in tracking teams that have not tied a game for 10 in a row and then betting them but even that can get stupid quickly as there are many teams that went 15 plus with out a tie (Ottawa, Buffalo, Carolina). Also ties tend to come in bunches, so there might be value in betting on the next 2 games to tie after one has occured. Again not a great play but if you like to gamble............
 
Well here is some more data.

1230 games played last year.
272 went to OT
average of one every 4.52 games

Most OT Games: NYR 25, Edm 24, ATL 23.
Least OT games: Car, TB 13, LA Ott Det 14.

Division with most ties Atlantic 99 and North west 98
Division with lest ties : Central 82
North east 95
Pacific 84
South east 86
 
I am consistently against any systems involving progressive staking but I wish you best of luck this season inmywallet.

:shake:
 
Do you think there could be more value in this with closer lined games as opposed to larger lined games ... ? maybe more likely to tie ?
 
Record: 1-7 (-9.8 Units)

10/10/08

Islanders/Devils +345 Risking 2 to win 6.9 Units
Panthers/Hurricanes +325 Risking 2 to win 6.5 Units
Blackhawks/Rangers +315 Risking 5 to win 15.75 Units
Canadiens/Sabres +300 Risking 2 to win 6 Units
Capitals/Thrashers +300 Risking 2 to win 6 Units
Predators/Blues +300 Risking 2 to win 6 Units
Blue Jackets/Stars +330 Risking 2 to win 6.6 Units
 
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Record: 3-12 (-10.2 Units)

10/11/08

Red Wings/Senators +310 Risking 4 to win 12.4 Units
 Canadiens/Maple Leafs +310 Risking 3 to win 9.3 Units
Blues/Islanders +300 Risking 4 to win 12 Units
Rangers/Flyers +310 Risking 9 to win 27.9 Units
Blackhawks/Capitals +310 Risking 4 to win 12.4 Units
Thrashers/Panthers +320 Risking 4 to win 12.8 Units
Devils/Penguins +305 Risking 4 to win 12.2 Units
Hurricanes/Lightning +300 Risking 6 to win 18 Units
Stars/Predators +300 Risking 3 to win 9 Units
Bruins/Wild +305 Risking 3 to win 9.15 Units
Canucks/Flames +310 Risking 4 to win 12.4 Units
Blue Jackets/Coyotes +310 Risking 2 to win 6.2 Units
Kings/Sharks +350 Risking 3 to win 10.5 Units
 
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man i hope this works out for you but risking 9 units after 2 games seems silly. Though i do like that game to tie....

Think i will wait and look for value on teams that have gone 10 games in a row with out tieing and jump on them then. I figure i will have at least 10 teams to look at in about 3 weeks.
 
Record: 7-21 (+10.2 Units)

10/12/08

Coyotes/Ducks +335 Risking 4 to win 13.4 Units
Avalanche/Oilers +305 Risking 3 to win 9.15 Units
Sharks/Kings +315 Risking 6 to win 18.9 Units
 
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Record: 7-24 (-2.8 Units)

10/13/08

Blues/Maple Leafs +310 Risking 8 to win 24.8 Units
Sabres/Islanders +320 Risking 5 to win 16 Units
Devils/Rangers +310 Risking 17 to win 52.7 Units
Canadiens/Flyers +315 Risking 4 to win 12.6 Units
Canucks/Capitals +315 Risking 5 to win 15.75 Units
Red Wings/Hurricanes +320 Risking 5 to win 16 Units
Predators/Blackhawks +325 Risking 8 to win 26 Units
 
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Record: 9-29 (+12 Units)

10/14/08

Flyers/Penguins +325 Risking 5 to win 16.25 Units
Wild/Thrashers +315 Risking 3 to win 9.45 Units
Avalanche/Flames +320 Risking 5 to win 16 Units
Ducks/Kings +325 Risking 8 to win 26 Units
Blue Jackets/Sharks +350 Risking 10 to win 35 Units
 
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Record: 10-33 (+2.25 Units)

10/15/08

Sabres/Rangers +320 Risking 34 to win 108.8 Units
Bruins/Canadiens +330 Risking 8 to win 26.4 Units
Predators/Stars +330 Risking 3 to win 9.9 Units
Coyotes/Blackhawks +315 Risking 5 to win 15.75 Units
Oilers/Ducks +330 Risking 10 to win 33 Units
 
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Record: 11-37 (-23.35 Units)

10/16/08

Devils/Thrashers +315 Risking 4 to win 12.6 Units
Islanders/Lightning +315 Risking 9 to win 28.35 Units
Capitals/Penguins +305 Risking 9 to win 27.45 Units
Wild/Panthers +300 Risking 5 to win 15 Units
Canucks/Red Wings +335 Risking 10 to win 33.5 Units
Stars/Blues +300 Risking 5 to win 15 Units
Flyers/Avalanche +310 Risking 9 to win 27.9 Units
 
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Record: 13-42 (+6.5 Units)

10/17/08

Coyotes/Senators +300 Risking 12 to win 36 Units
Maple Leafs/Rangers +340 Risking 65 to win 221 Units 'an_horse'
Predators/Blue Jackets +290 Risking 6 to win 17.4 Units
Canucks/Sabres +300 Risking 5 to win 15 Units
Oilers/Flames +300 Risking 6 to win 18 Units
Sharks/Ducks +290 Risking 32 to win 92.8 Units
Hurricanes/Kings +290 Risking 10 to win 29 Units
 
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ok. so at what point do you bail out? as after 9 games for any one team without a tie you would be risking 1180 units or $3200. And that would be on just one game thus not including possibly 5 or 6 others inplay that night. Not bashing just interested.
 
i would make it for less money, but minimum internet bet is $1. I guess I could've done $.50, but when one team reaches my limit, I may have a game that would be $.50, and that wouldn't have worked. Anyway, I am considering a limit, but haven't decided yet.
 
Record: 15-46 (+195.5 Units)

10/18/08

Avalanche/Stars +290 Risking 24 to win 69.6 Units
Coyotes/Canadiens +335 Risking 17 to win 56.95 Units
Bruins/Senators +300 Risking 9 to win 27 Units
Maple Leafs/Penguins +335 Risking 3 to win 10.05 Units
Devils/Capitals +295 Risking 20 to win 59 Units
Sabres/Thrashers +300 Risking 12 to win 36 Units
Islanders/Panthers +300 Risking 6 to win 18 Units
Rangers/Red Wings +300 Risking 1 to win 3 Units
Wild/Lightning +295 Risking 9 to win 26.55 Units
Blue Jackets/Predators +300 Risking 12 to win 36 Units
Blackhawks/Blues +295 Risking 4 to win 11.8 Units
Flames/Oilers +295 Risking 12 to win 35.4 Units
Flyers/Sharks +335 Risking 34 to win 113.9 Units
 
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Record: 21-53 (+362.75 Units)

10/19/08

Canucks/Blackhawks +290 Risking 3 to win 8.7 Units
Hurricanes/Ducks +305 Risking 33 to win 100.65 Units
 
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Buffalo_Bills said:
I don't quite understand it...but looks like it's working great so far!

:shake:
Click to expand...

No problem, this is a chase for a team to tie a game. In the above two games, I am combining the two teams into one bet for the game to tie at the end of regulations, so needless to say, I had a great night last night.
 
Record: 21-55 (+326.75 Units)

10/20/08

Penguins/Bruins +315 Risking 6 to win 18.9 Units
Stars/Rangers +325 Risking 16 to win 52 Units
Panthers/Canadiens +345 Risking 6 to win 20.7 Units
Avalanche/Kings +315 Risking 33 to win 103.95 Units
 
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Record: 22-58 (+290.65 Units)

10/21/08

Canucks/Blue Jackets +305 Risking 20 to win 61 Units
Bruins/Sabres +310 Risking 2 to win 6.2 Units
Ducks/Maple Leafs +290 Risking 66 to win 191.4 Units
Thrashers/Lightning +300 Risking 2 to win 6 Units
Capitals/Flames +295 Risking 9 to win 26.55 Units
 
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Record: 25-60 (+465.25 Units)

10/22/08

Panthers/Senators +320 Risking 24 to win 76.8 Units
Stars/Devils +320 Risking 33 to win 105.6 Units
Sharks/Flyers +300 Risking 1 to win 3 Units
Red Wings/Blues +305 Risking 2 to win 6.1 Units
Oilers/Blackhawks +290 Risking 18 to win 52.2 Units
 
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