Pelicans vs. Nuggets Picks & Prediction January 31: No Zion, No Chance for New Orleans
Best Bet: Nuggets -6.5 at -110 with Bookmaker
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, January 31, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
Key Injury
The key injury is that Pelican star forward Zion Williamson remains injured.
Zion is dealing with a right hamstring strain from which it is currently unclear when he will return.
There seem to be two general ways in which a team responds to an injury to one of its key players.
One way can be called the "rally angle." That is, the healthy players will rally together and step up, improving their performance in a way that makes up for the injury incurred by their key player.
Another way is that the team suffers and is clearly worse off without their key player.
Missing Zion
New Orleans is clearly worse off without Zion.
Since Zion's injury on January 2, the Pelicans have managed to win a few games.
But those wins came against losing teams -- Houston, Washington, and Detroit.
They are also currently unable to beat even the losing teams.
As of now, they are suffering an eight-game losing streak, as part of which they lost by double digits to both the Magic and the Wizards.
Zion's Importance
Zion is crucial to New Orleans in view of his offensive productivity.
He leads the team in points per game -- whereas the next-highest-scoring Pelican averages 21.3 points per game, Zion averages 26.
His centrality to the Pelicans' success on offense is evident in the following fact:before their losing streak began, the Pelicans' offensive rating was 114.8.
Since the start of their losing streak, however, their offensive rating is 104.6, which is easily last in the league.
Zion's absence thus has consequences for both the spread and the total -- his absence leaves New Orleans with insufficient scoring talent to cover the spread and to help carry the game "over" the posted total.
Should We Expect New Orleans to Adjust?
Could it be the case that the Pelicans simply need time to figure out how to win without Zion?
If so, what are the chances that they adjust in time for tonight's game or any time soon?
Let's consider that during his second stint in Cleveland, the Cavaliers were 4-23 without LeBron, although they had All-Star-caliber players on their team.
While Zion isn't quite LeBron (although LeBron arguably had better supporting talent than Zion does), the point holds that it is hard for teams to succeed without their star player, and that the difficulty is a persistent one that we should not expect to go away.
Is Denver Slumping?
The importance of Zion's absence yields insight into Denver's current situation.
One might think that the Nuggets are slumping and that their slump should negate the significance that we accord to New Orleans' ongoing losing streak.
To be exact, the Nuggets have now dropped three of their last four games.
But, crucially, Denver missed star center Nikola Jokic for two of those three losses.
So, Denver cannot be said to be slumping, or the slump is not a meaningful one, because Jokic is back and healthy, and there's no basis for expecting the Nuggets to lose when he's in the lineup as he will be tonight.
Margin of Victory
Of course, it's not enough for Denver simply to win tonight.
We should like Denver to win by enough points to cover the spread.
In this view, let's look at how badly the Pelicans are losing: during their losing streak, all of their losses but two came by nine or more points, which would be enough points for the Nuggets to cover.
In the two closer losses, the Pelicans counted on unusually atrocious offensive play from their opponent in order to remain competitive.
Also, New Orleans had the benefit of home court in those two games.
Vulnerable Pelican Defense
The key problem is that New Orleans' defensive is vulnerable.
Among other areas, the Pelicans struggle to defend the area nearest the basket.
They allow the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Denver, which ranks sixth in field goal percentage within this distance from the basket, can take advantage.
Look for, among others, the perennial MVP candidate Jokic to thrive inside. The ever consistent star, Jokic, is primed to bounce back after 76er PJ Tucker gave him problems in his last game.
The Verdict
In addition to Denver using its superior star power to cover the spread, expect a lower-scoring game in which, especially with Pelican forward Brandon Ingram mired in a shooting slump indicative of his persisting rust, both teams lack the firepower to carry the game "over" the posted total.
Best Bet: Under 234 at -110 with BetOnline
Best Bet: Nuggets -6.5 at -110 with Bookmaker
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, January 31, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
Key Injury
The key injury is that Pelican star forward Zion Williamson remains injured.
Zion is dealing with a right hamstring strain from which it is currently unclear when he will return.
There seem to be two general ways in which a team responds to an injury to one of its key players.
One way can be called the "rally angle." That is, the healthy players will rally together and step up, improving their performance in a way that makes up for the injury incurred by their key player.
Another way is that the team suffers and is clearly worse off without their key player.
Missing Zion
New Orleans is clearly worse off without Zion.
Since Zion's injury on January 2, the Pelicans have managed to win a few games.
But those wins came against losing teams -- Houston, Washington, and Detroit.
They are also currently unable to beat even the losing teams.
As of now, they are suffering an eight-game losing streak, as part of which they lost by double digits to both the Magic and the Wizards.
Zion's Importance
Zion is crucial to New Orleans in view of his offensive productivity.
He leads the team in points per game -- whereas the next-highest-scoring Pelican averages 21.3 points per game, Zion averages 26.
His centrality to the Pelicans' success on offense is evident in the following fact:before their losing streak began, the Pelicans' offensive rating was 114.8.
Since the start of their losing streak, however, their offensive rating is 104.6, which is easily last in the league.
Zion's absence thus has consequences for both the spread and the total -- his absence leaves New Orleans with insufficient scoring talent to cover the spread and to help carry the game "over" the posted total.
Should We Expect New Orleans to Adjust?
Could it be the case that the Pelicans simply need time to figure out how to win without Zion?
If so, what are the chances that they adjust in time for tonight's game or any time soon?
Let's consider that during his second stint in Cleveland, the Cavaliers were 4-23 without LeBron, although they had All-Star-caliber players on their team.
While Zion isn't quite LeBron (although LeBron arguably had better supporting talent than Zion does), the point holds that it is hard for teams to succeed without their star player, and that the difficulty is a persistent one that we should not expect to go away.
Is Denver Slumping?
The importance of Zion's absence yields insight into Denver's current situation.
One might think that the Nuggets are slumping and that their slump should negate the significance that we accord to New Orleans' ongoing losing streak.
To be exact, the Nuggets have now dropped three of their last four games.
But, crucially, Denver missed star center Nikola Jokic for two of those three losses.
So, Denver cannot be said to be slumping, or the slump is not a meaningful one, because Jokic is back and healthy, and there's no basis for expecting the Nuggets to lose when he's in the lineup as he will be tonight.
Margin of Victory
Of course, it's not enough for Denver simply to win tonight.
We should like Denver to win by enough points to cover the spread.
In this view, let's look at how badly the Pelicans are losing: during their losing streak, all of their losses but two came by nine or more points, which would be enough points for the Nuggets to cover.
In the two closer losses, the Pelicans counted on unusually atrocious offensive play from their opponent in order to remain competitive.
Also, New Orleans had the benefit of home court in those two games.
Vulnerable Pelican Defense
The key problem is that New Orleans' defensive is vulnerable.
Among other areas, the Pelicans struggle to defend the area nearest the basket.
They allow the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Denver, which ranks sixth in field goal percentage within this distance from the basket, can take advantage.
Look for, among others, the perennial MVP candidate Jokic to thrive inside. The ever consistent star, Jokic, is primed to bounce back after 76er PJ Tucker gave him problems in his last game.
The Verdict
In addition to Denver using its superior star power to cover the spread, expect a lower-scoring game in which, especially with Pelican forward Brandon Ingram mired in a shooting slump indicative of his persisting rust, both teams lack the firepower to carry the game "over" the posted total.
Best Bet: Under 234 at -110 with BetOnline
