New Orleans Saints v. Detroit Lions - NFL Week 7

[Hakan's Picks]

The line opened up at Lions -2.5, and was offered at -3 in some books. The spread has since moved to Lions -1. That is most likely due to the news that the Saints' Jimmy Graham, who was expected to miss 2-4 weeks, is now a game time decision. If he plays, he will most likely be limited to red-zone situations, similar to what the Saints did last year when he was hurt. Another reason this line may be so low, is that the Saints are coming off a bye week. Quite frankly, I'm not buying any of this. I feel people are having trouble accepting the fact that the Saints suck. They are overrated. The Saints are horrible on the road, and they are horrible on defense. Their only wins were against Minnesota and Tampa Bay at home, and they barely beat the Bucs in OT. They lost all three of their road games to the Falcons, Browns, and Cowboys. The Lions on the other hand, are sporting the best defense in the NFL - 1st overall, 1st pass defense, 2nd run defense, and 1st in points allowed. While Megatron is questionable, Reggie Bush practiced on Friday and is probable. In general, good defenses trump good offenses. Although the Lions offense has struggled at times, they should be able to put points up against the poor Saints defense. I see the Saints' road woes continuing this week. Home-field advantage, and the best defense in the league, will be the difference for the Lions. Pick: Lions -128 (5Dimes.)




Futbol/Soccer Picks: 3-8
NFL Picks: 3-4

 

[austinhous]

Keep in mind that 5Dimes shades their lines to protect against teasers, which explains the -1 -120 you are seeing there. It looks like the consensus spread right now is +2 -110 with a few +2½ -115 out there as well. If we get to see the battle between 2½ and 3 tomorrow morning, that should tell us the whole story. I think the reason for the line has everything to do with the Saints off the bye week:

[TABLE="width: 597"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Day[/TD]
[TD]Week[/TD]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Opp[/TD]
[TD]Site[/TD]
[TD]Final[/TD]
[TD]Line[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]SUr[/TD]
[TD]ATSr[/TD]
[TD]OUr[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29-Oct-06[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2006[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Ravens[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]22-35[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7-Oct-07[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2007[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Panthers[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]13-16[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43.5[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Nov-08[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2008[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Falcons[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]20-34[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18-Oct-09[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2009[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]48-27[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47.5[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-Nov-10[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2010[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Seahawks[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]34-19[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-11.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Nov-11[/TD]
[TD]Monday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2011[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]49-24[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-Oct-12[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2012[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Buccaneers[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]35-28[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27-Oct-13[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2013[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Bills[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]35-17[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-11.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19-Oct-14[/TD]
[TD]Sunday[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2014[/TD]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]Lions[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The one weakness in the bye-week reasoning, however, is that the Saints played most of those games after their bye-week at home.

 

[austinhous]

Thank you for your write-ups by the way, they are all good reads. BOL

 

[Lareux]

Keep in mind that 5Dimes shades their lines to protect against teasers, which explains the -1 -120 you are seeing there. It looks like the consensus spread right now is +2 -110 with a few +2½ -115 out there as well. If we get to see the battle between 2½ and 3 tomorrow morning, that should tell us the whole story. I think the reason for the line has everything to do with the Saints off the bye week:

Detroit is -2 with a few -2.5s. That's probably what you meant, but I had to go and check the line because I thought, somehow, Det was +2, which would have been interesting.

 

[Hakan's Picks]

Yeah, the bye week is mainly why the line is where it is. Like you said, the majority of those games coming off the bye week were at home. Tomorrow, they're on the road against the best defense in the league. We'll see what happens. BOL to you guys as well. Let's get 'em tomorrow!