New Jersey/Dallas Total

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Under 194.5

- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores


New Jersey

- last season, off consecutive games totaling a combined 410+ points, went U/O 3-1 at an average of 171.5 points. Their only Over came vs SAS, their 3 unders vs WAS, MIL & BOS, evidencing the fact the best defense they faced produced the highest total. Jersey simply arent a team that piles high scoring games on top of one another. They had no instances last season of 3 consecutive 200(+) point games. They enter this game off 2 such totals (428 points).

- last season, off a game that totaled 210+ points, went U/O 6-2 at an average of 181.6 points. This season are U/O 2-0 at an average of 180.5 points in the same spot. Their previous game to this totaled 219 points.

- Have totaled 189, 187, 191 & 172 points in their last 4 games vs Dallas (home games bolded).

- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 188.6 points in Home ATS wins this season.


Dallas

- in the 2nd game of B2Bs last season went U/O 13-6 at an average of 186.7 points. This season are U/O 3-1 at an average of 187.2 points, picking up right where they left off.

- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 191.3 points in Road ATS losses this season.

- has totaled 215-199-203 in their last 3 games. Last season only once did they total 199 or more over 3 straight games, and have done so once already this season (managing 4 in a row, the 4th result coming on 2 days rest). With their predominantly Under record of last season, and a similar record this season since putting their losing start behind them, Dallas, like Jersey, simply isnt a team (nowdays) to put up repeatedly high totals (hence why they became real contenders).


Just because Dallas finally had their loss to end that long winning streak doesnt mean their letdown ends with that 1 blow, as people are pointing out around the traps for reasoning to take Jersey ATS here. I don't disagree, but with San An sitting on the same amount of losses but with 1 more win, I dont see Dallas being as care free in letting Jersey score as they were with Washington. I think the pointers are for a scrappy affair here, so a small bet for me on the Under (if Dallas flags competing for this game, they just might open things up. If there was little letdown aspect at all from their end, I'd invest more).
 
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your killing me BC!

I bet the over at 7pm and you come and take the wind out of my sails.
 
Not what I wanted to see....my only counter point is NJ has historically been much better defensively then they have been this year....feeling a 99-98 NJ win....GL and damn I hate being against ya!
 
I don't think that New Jersey is all that capable of producing a ton of points either, and saying that, maybe their game plan will be to slow this game down a little bit so it doesn't get out of their reach. looks like a good play.
 
scourge, I might be dead from the start if Dallas take this one easy.

Nut, Jersey only just managed for the first time consecutive Over results, this season, in their last 2 games. I just think on this long homestand of theirs they'll show their real selves sooner rather than later. With Phoenix next up, I struggle to see the Jersey team I know go 4-0-2 to Over over 6 games. But, theres a reason they play the games. If I was that confident, I'd be betting more.
 
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Good post. Have noticed dallas seems a strong under in b-b at home but not so much on the road. Too close to game time to really do much with the post but GL
 
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tuck, you must be looking at stats that extend beyond last season to make that observation. I have Dallas 10-4 to Under on the road, 3-2 to Under at home, in the 2nd of B2Bs last season (although this season, however short, does fit that assertion).
And its due to external events that most my recent posts have been close to gametime. Things arent as ordered in that way as much as I'd like recently.
 
No just looking at last 10 b-b where the 5 road games broke 3 over 1 under and 1 push. Have no real opinon here.
 
fair enough. One of those games came at the end of the season where Dallas had flagged any real extensive defensive efforts (vs PHX, a loss). I didnt read much into that result. (my mistake)
 
holy shit, NJ is fucking pathetic, congrats on the play crimes. Do these fuckers ever practice? 6-23 shooting? What a joke
 
scourge, pace has picked up, enough so that this period could hit 46-50, and so I'm taking nothing for granted as usual.

As I write Jersey hits a 3. Long way to go yet.
 
Sick part is I expected a lower scoring 1st half just not a pathetic performance from a rested NJ squad. I guess at the end though Ihighly respect your analysis but just ahvent a different approach. I have watched probably the past 10 NJ games and they havent been able to stop anyone at any point on defense. I figured looking at avgs Mavs should crack a hundo here and that in a fairly competitive game thats all I would need...there is always 2nd Half wagers....maybe we get a nice line....
 
14 points in the final 90 secs of the first half, and a whopping 25 FT attempts in 1 period (thats not a 4th) keeps the Over in with a chance.

Nothing decided yet, Nut.
 
I dont mean to speak like it is. I played the 2nd H over cause of the factors you cited. I was a big believer NJ would get to the line alot tonite from the getgo and like they emphasised that. I would be content to just win my 2nd H play at this point....
 
nice bro
Bow%20Down.gif
 
Killa, thanks. Would you like to hear that net connectivity &/or external distractions/problems cost me playing (hence posting) a MIA-DET under play and a Philly-Minny under play in recent days?

Just one of those zones everyone gets in. Theres a number of lesser known posters, to us covers familiar guys, on these boards who are having just as good, if not better, runs. You're hardly unfamiliar with such yourself recently from what I hear/see.
As a consequence of finding covers and posting my plays for the first time back in 04 and the 3 years there spent refining my posting methods, and as a result the very ways of making plays (and once again thanks no less to tuck321 going out of his way to having me reinstated after an early ban), plus the development of the trend thread and 230/100-100 trend (and what thats taught me beyond simply those games), I think has all just accumulated to refine my understanding of how this shit works, since I never see anything live. I'm hoping thats the case (its what it feels like) vs simply being in some transient zone.
andresh:cheers:
 
BC, your effort and enthusiasm are simply paying dividends. I can't think of anyone more deserving. Congrats and keep em coming. I have forever been impressed with your insights backed by your incredible stat keeping.
 
thanks, eggnoggin. Its one thing to keep them, another to apply them. At the moment things are working well with the latter.:cheers:
 
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