New England and why

Jhoss003

Jhoss003

Pretty much a regular
SUPER BOWL: PATRIOTS over SEAHAWKS

From 2001–2018, the New England Patriots appeared in nine Super Bowls. It became almost routine to see Brady, Belichick, and the Pats on the biggest stage — and just as routine for those games to come down to the wire. In fact, during that entire stretch, only one Patriots Super Bowl was decided by more than one possession.

Six seasons later, New England is back — but in a completely different form.
• No Brady.
• No Belichick.
• New staff.
• New roster.
• New identity.
Yet the theme remains the same: tight margins, physical football, and elite situational play.
That profile matters enormously against this Seattle team.

PUBLIC NARRATIVE VS REALITY
Seattle checks all the public boxes:
• 16–3 record
• 14–5 ATS
• League-best point differential
• Top-10 DVOA team all-time
• #1 seed

The prevailing narrative is simple:
Seattle is an historically great team that should roll a Patriots squad that benefitted from a soft schedule.
That narrative collapses when you examine how these teams actually match up.

NEW ENGLAND HAS ALREADY BEATEN BETTER DEFENSES
In three playoff games, New England has beaten:
• Denver — #1 in sacks (68) and QB knockdowns (80)
• Houston — 47 sacks (same as Seattle)
• Chargers — top-10 defense

Against Denver:
• Allowed 5 sacks
• Still rushed for 141 yards
Now three straight playoff games with 100+ rushing yards
All of this came in terrible weather.
Seattle’s defense does not present a problem New England hasn’t already solved.

SEATTLE’S DEFENSIVE PROFILE IS A PROBLEM
Seattle struggles badly with:
• Missed tackles in pass defense
• Yards after catch

Numbers:
Missed tackles (Pass D):
• NE: 71 (fewest in NFL)
• SEA: 110 (among worst)
That puts Seattle in the same tier as: Arizona, Dallas, Miami, and the JETS!

• YAC allowed: 2,184 yards
Worse than Dallas, Miami, JETS!, Rams, and Commanders

That is exactly what New England’s offense attacks:
• Quick-game concepts
• Spacing
• Making DBs tackle in space
• Sustaining drives
This isn’t explosive football — it’s death by a thousand cuts, and Seattle has shown all year they struggle finishing plays.

THE GAME WILL BE DECIDED IN THE MIDDLE
Seattle’s biggest vulnerability is the interior offensive line.
Interior OL grades:
• Anthony Bradford (RG): 2nd worst pass-blocking guard in the NFL
• Grey Zabel (LG): 44th of 60 guards
• Jalen Sundell (C): 21st of 40 centers
That trio now faces the deepest interior pass rush in football.

Among DTs with 200+ pass rush snaps:
• Cory Durden: 2nd in win rate
• Milton Williams: 8th
• Christian Barmore: 15th
• Khyris Tonga: 26th
Those four have generated 41 pressures in three playoff games — from the DT position alone.
Seattle cannot hide from this.

WHY THIS IS A NIGHTMARE FOR SAM DARNOLD
Darnold is:
• Not mobile
• Historically poor under interior pressure
• 17 turnovers this season
• 3rd in the league in interceptions

As hits accumulate, Darnold’s play degrades:
• Eyes drop
• Timing breaks
• Forced throws follow
New England has a clear, repeatable path to sacks and takeaways.

SEATTLE’S RUN GAME DOESN’T FIX THIS
Kenneth Walker is explosive — but efficiency matters more.
• Seahawks run game: 21st in success rate
• Last week vs Rams: 27% success rate
New England run defense:
• 8th in success rate allowed with Milton Williams active
Inefficient runs → 3rd & long → blitz exposure.

BLITZES + THIRD AND LONG = DISASTER
New England playoff blitz rate:
• 41% (would rank 2nd over full season)

Seattle vs heavy blitz:
vs Brian Flores this year:
• 219 total yards
• 3.2 YPP
• Darnold: 128 yards, 4 sacks

Season-long:
• Darnold: 23rd DVOA vs blitz
• Seattle: 31st in 3rd-and-long conversion
That is not survivable on the Super Bowl stage.

JSN IS GREAT — BUT NOT UNCHECKABLE
Jaxon Smith-Njigba drives this offense.
New England has:
• Christian Gonzalez (elite shutdown CB)
• Carlton Davis (veteran, playoff tested)
• Marcus Jones (elite slot defender)
Combined:
• 58% completions allowed
• 5.9 YPA
• 75.4 passer rating

Scheme matters too:
• Pats rank #1 vs play action
JSN thrives off play action
Vrabel understands how to scheme doubles against elite WRs — he lived those game plans as a player.
JSN will produce — but not efficiently.

THE QB GAP IS REAL
• Drake Maye: 31 TD / 8 INT, 113.5 passer rating (NFL-best)
• Sam Darnold: 25 TD / 14 INT, 99.1 rating

Maye:
• Protects the football
• Extends plays with his legs
• Thrives late in games

Darnold:
• Breaks under sustained pressure
• That contrast matters in a tight Super Bowl.

NEW ENGLAND CAN THROW THE BALL
Seattle CBs:
• 60% completions
• 6.4 YPA
• 87.7 passer rating allowed

Josh Jobe is exploitable.
Riq Woolen is volatile.

New England doesn’t rely on one guy:
• Four receivers over 600 yards
• 6th-highest neutral pass rate
Maye will throw — and find soft spots.

VRABEL IS A MASSIVE EDGE
4th-down aggressiveness:
• NE: 5th most aggressive
• SEA: 7th least aggressive
As an underdog:
• Vrabel goes for it 68% of the time
• 19–8–1 ATS catching 4+

MacDonald has repeatedly chosen caution where aggression was optimal.
That matters late.

SUPER BOWL HISTORY
Wild Card teams since 2000:
11–3 SU
13–1 ATS
#1 seeds vs WC teams:
0–10 ATS

New England:
8.7 PPG allowed in playoffs
Only the 2000 Ravens were better

FINAL TAKE
Seattle is excellent.
But this game will be decided by:
• Interior pressure
• Blitz execution
• Missed tackles
• YAC control
• QB efficiency
• Game management
Those edges belong to New England.

Play: Patriots +5/ ML
Prediction: NE wins a close, classic Super Bowl
 
All great points. For me, it's the running games. Seattle showed well vs. the grocery bag guys playing for SF in 2 of the last 3 games but their rushing attack doesn't scare me. The weather was so poor for the last 2 NE games you almost have to throw everything out - other than their ability to pound the ball when the defenses, the best defenses in the league, knew it was coming.
 
Lot of books offering SGP boosts and promos.

Can get 100% boosts up to $200 and the ML is the best place to use that on Fanatics, +380.

33% SGP, NE ML +190 with Maye over 20 yards rushing -650, boosts up to almost 3-1.

Can get $1200 down on those 2 promos alone. No way they should be a +300 plus dog.
 
cubsker said:
Im not aware of NE solving any problems on offense against Denver. they were handed 7 pts and managed 3 other points while averaging 3.2 yards per play.
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I think running for as many yards as they did in those conditions was crazy impressive. 3.2 seems high. There wasn't a forward pass to be had for majority of the game.
 
Drake Maye was awful in the first half. The ball came out of his hand badly about every throw. Now maybe he'll throw better in good conditions in the super bowl, but we have to be honest - the NE offense was terrible vs Denver.
 
cubsker said:
Drake Maye was awful in the first half. The ball came out of his hand badly about every throw. Now maybe he'll throw better in good conditions in the super bowl, but we have to be honest - the NE offense was terrible vs Denver.
Click to expand...

Maye has shown now more than a couple of times that he is pretty bad when conditions are poor. Much worse than your average QB. Maybe it's experience, maybe it's something else physical.
 
Inspekdah said:
Maye has shown now more than a couple of times that he is pretty bad when conditions are poor. Much worse than your average QB. Maybe it's experience, maybe it's something else physical.
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good note to make. I had thought the same from his college days about Goff. I watched him one time in the rain in Corvallis. If that was his only tape, he wouldn't have been drafted at all, let alone #1.
 
One major factor is that New England faced the weakest schedule of all playoff teams and also won 2 of t 3 Playoff games on 7 turnovers.
In fact the scoring drop off was so severe that ehy were reduced to only 18pts per game on offense and that was with all those turnovers they got as gifts...///

BOL to you.
 
G-Man said:
One major factor is that New England faced the weakest schedule of all playoff teams and also won 2 of t 3 Playoff games on 7 turnovers.
In fact the scoring drop off was so severe that ehy were reduced to only 18pts per game on offense and that was with all those turnovers they got as gifts...///

BOL to you.
Click to expand...
The same can be said about the 1999 Rams with their weak schedule. Do I think the Pats win, not getting my hopes up. But I feel too much is being made of their schedule. They beat the teams on their regular season slate and everyone said they were beneficiaries of little travel & soft teams. They beat the teams on their playoff slate and everyone is finding excuses why they won or why the opponent lost.
 
Zeke said:
The same can be said about the 1999 Rams with their weak schedule. Do I think the Pats win, not getting my hopes up. But I feel too much is being made of their schedule. They beat the teams on their regular season slate and everyone said they were beneficiaries of little travel & soft teams. They beat the teams on their playoff slate and everyone is finding excuses why they won or why the opponent lost.
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The list of SB champs is littered with teams who had the easiest schedule, it doesn’t mean shit.
 
cashflowmatters said:
MacDonald chooses common sense and gut feelings over the analytics & I love that about him . All the analytics coaches are sitting at home!! Both the Bears and Broncos lost their respective games because they rely on analytics
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I’ll never be able to wrap my head around the fucked up math Ben Johnson must be doing! Every bears game I watched his aggressiveness was never a net positive over what simply kicking woulda been.
 
As the holder of a NE +1000 future, I approve this message.

Line is about right but the pats have every chance to win this one SU
 
G-Man said:
One major factor is that New England faced the weakest schedule of all playoff teams and also won 2 of t 3 Playoff games on 7 turnovers.
In fact the scoring drop off was so severe that ehy were reduced to only 18pts per game on offense and that was with all those turnovers they got as gifts...///

BOL to you.
Click to expand...
Regarding turnovers -- 13 teams have won three playoff games to make it to the Super Bowl. One of those teams (2021 Rams) was even in turnovers in the playoffs, and they won but failed to cover (23-20 as -4.5).

The other 12 teams had playoff turnover margins ranging from +2 to +10.

And they all covered. Three favorites, nine dogs. Six AFC, six NFC. 12-0 ATS.
 
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