New bankroll already

R

rookie333

Blame it on the boogie
After the worst weekend for NFL ever, I'm restarting everything. I thought about it and feel so dumb for goin in so fast so early. Thought I knew the teams early on better than Vegas. Couple bad breaks too- eli and McNair getting injured late. Couple terrible calls- (browns, jacksonville, philly to a point..) and a bad line on the Niners game (-3.5, when I could've gotten 3 all week) Gotta be more organized and take it slow. so here it is

Bankroll: 5000
Goal: 10,000
Min bet- 50-100
Max bet-1000

will post all plays here:
New Orleans -3 (-135) Tampa Bay- 270 to win 200 lose

Niners +3 STL- 755 to win 700 (300 at -105) win

Buffalo +10 (+110) Pittsburgh- 100 to win 110 lose

Carolina -6.5 (-110) Houson- 220 to win 200 lose

Tennessee +7 (-110) Indianapolis- 220 to win 200 win

2nd H Niners +.5 (-120) STL- 360 to win 300 win

2nd H Jacksonville -7 (-120) Atlanta- 360 to win 300 win

2nd H Carolina -4.5 (-120) Houston- 360 to win 300 lose

2nd H Cincinatti -7 (-120) Cleveland- 360 to win 300 lose

<ST1 ="">:pChicago -12 (-110) Kansas City-</ST1>:p 880 to win 800 lose


1<SUP>st</SUP> H Chicago -7 (-120) <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 /><st1:city w:st="[/IMG]Chicago</st1:City">-12</st1:city>[FONT=/><st1:city class=inlineimg title="Stick Out Tongue" alt="" w:st="]<st1:City" smilieid="5" border="0" tongue.gif="" smilies images>Kansas City- </st1:city>:p480 to win 400 win[/font]


<st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state> +3.5 <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1 ="">:pSeattle-</ST1> 440 to win 400 win

<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>
<st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city> -3 <st1:state w:st="on">Minnesota-</st1:state> 220 to win 200 push

<st1:city w:st="on"></st1:city>
<st1:city w:st="on">Miami</st1:city> +3.5 (-105) <st1:city w:st="on"><ST1 ="">:pDallas-</ST1>:p</st1:city>210 to win 200 lose

San Diego +3.5 (-105) New England- 630 to win 600 LOSE

1st H San Diego +3 (-120) New England- 480 to win 400 LOSE

San Diego +4 (-120) New England- 240 to win 200 LOSE

Philadelphia -7 (-110) Washington- 2200 to win 2000

---Philadelphia -6.5 (-110) Washington- 330 to win 300

2 Team 6 Pt Teaser: Philly -1, Chicago -6- 220 to win 200

3 Team 10 PT Teaser: Jacksonville pk, Baltimore pk, Chicago -2- 420 to win 350 win

7-10
-1100

early week 2 thoughts/leans:

Houston/Carolina
Houston was impressive, but it was against KC so I guess this will be the real test. Carolina should have won by even more.. Foster's fumble at STL's 3 yrd line.. Delhomme showed that he really wants to keep his job, and can play udner the pressure, although STL's D isn't much of a test. Lean Carolina small

Cincinatti/Cleveland
Cleveland in a mess right now. Frya gone after week 1, and Derek Anderson is starting? omg. I see a game very similiar to last weeks, even worse for Cleveland. I mean, if you can't bring your best on opening night at home against your rival, then why would you the next week? Cincinatti'd D will tear DA apart. I mean Cinci's offense wasn't great, but still did manage 27 pts on a tough Baltimore D. Only problem is I see this as too easy, feel like I'm getting suckered. Any thoughts? Lean Cincinatti

Atlanta/Jacksonville
cannot touch this game. No way I'm betting Atlanta in the state they're in, and no way I'm laying 10 pts with this jacksonville squad that managed 10 PTS against tennessee.. fuckers

GB/NYG
two very opposite teams. Giants strong offense/ GB strong D. Giants weak D, GB offense. If no Eli, then its hard to bet on the Giants. I mean losing your starting QB and RB is harsh. Hard to bet on GB on the road, esp as a small fave even, so most likely a no play

Buffalo/Pittsburgh
Buffalo must be mad after that loss, (which was very pretty). I feel Buffalo brings it all this game- emotionally and everything. Everett story and off that crazy loss. I believe Pittsburgh is overvalued right now off that huge win on Cleveland. If this was at Buffalo, I think I'd hit the Buff ML pretty big, but either way lean Buffalo +points for small/medium. Hate betting on the definitely worse team tho

SF/STL
I was high on STL, until they showed what they've got. Really liked the Niners tackling last game (Patrick Willis= ray lewis). Always got group tackles unlike many NFL teams. They hit hard, which should get a couple nice fumbles from SJax. However, I still see Jackson running over us if given the chance. The Niners pass coverage and pass protection really impressed me yesterday. They showed wild improvement from what I expected. If Niners would just learn to run a damn screen, we'd probably be able to get those blitzes away fromAlex Smith so that he could calm down. He's getting decent time, certainly enough time to launch up to Vernon or Darrel. Hopefully we see it this week. Lean Niners medium/large

more later.. needa get some sleep
</st1:city>
 
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New Orleans/Tampa Bay
Really hard not to like New Orleans here. Off an embarassing ass loss, had extra time to prepare, against this Tampa team that was kept scoreless for 3 qtrs against an overrated seattle team, same Tampa team that lost their starting HB and maybe QB. Overall, both teams looked terrible last week. Because New Orleans has the talent and was good last yr, people (including myself) expect a come back. With a spread of 3, it could be harder than many think. I don't know, this one says sucker bet all over it, but besides the fact that I can't think of any, can someone say why NO-3 is a terrible bet. weary lean to New Orleans
 
Indi/Tennessee
Everyone knows of Indi's troubles with Tennessee last yr. o-2 ATS, and even 1-1 only SU. Sharps knew this as the line dropped from open- 10, to 7 right now. Let me get this clear: I hate tennessee. VY has screwed me so many times, and maybe I'm just stubborn and won't jump on the bandwagon. Every time he screws me, I keep sayin to myself, "These guys suck. Let the public love VY, then it'll create value in the future fading them." So week after week I keep fading Tennessee, and they screw me over. I wanna do it again here. I mean did any1 see Indi's game?! Complete domination agaist a pretty good New Orleans team. Whose to say it can't happen again? I don't know. SI is saying over 90% on Indi, but still. Gotta think this one over. Can VY give Indi that much trouble? Lean to Indi very small
 
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Minnesota/Detroit
Man would I love this spot if Oakland came back for the W last week. No matter. Minnesota off a big win over Atlanta. Not saying much looking at ATL right now. Detroits offense really impressed me last week against an above average Oakland D. Showed they can win on the road, even if it is the Raiders. Recievers impressed me. Didn't watch Minnesota game, but looking at stats, Tavaris sucked. 160 yrds, with 1 one them being a 60 yrder to adrian peterson. If I remember, minnesota defense forces short/mid passes, which shouldn't be a problem here. Lean Detroit small/medium
 
Seattle/Arizona
I said before the monday game, that if Arizona lost to SF, it'd set up a nice play for them this week. Unfortunately they covered, so it defeats it a little bit. Seattle did not impress me. They were given the win in a game which they could've won by 40 at home. Arizona wasn't bad. They stopped the run pretty decently. Seattle overvalued a bit, and Arizona undervalued. Arizona should be a little extra motivated cuz of that last minute loss. Lean to the home dog Arizona small/medium
 
Dallas/Miami
this one scream sucker to me. Miami lost to a shaky Wash team. Why didn't they hand it to Ronnie more? If someon watched, can they tell me? Well Dallas looked good on Sunday night.. on offense. Looked real good in fact. Seems only too easy to take Dallas this week..
 
NY Jets/Baltimore
flat out I fully expect a Baltimomre win. Even with Boller, first game home, off a division loss at the end. Boller threw away the game and knows it. McGahee will be able to run around, and Baltimore D will eat Clemens alive. Looking at throwing Baltimore into a teaser
 
Kansas City/Chicago
KC will lose. This is probably my favorite game of the day despite the large spread. KC is probably the worst team in the league right now. LJ is not ready and it showed. Just imagine. Chicago shut down LT to 25 yrd, why cant you expect the same for LJ? If they shut down LJ, that'll force Damon Huard to help Chicago cover. I don't care if Chicago gets no offensive production. The Chicago D is still probably the best in the league. Grossman should actually have a decnt day as he usually does against bad teams. 20+ pt win easy. Heavy lean to Chicago large, and probably add to that teaser
 
Don't worry Rook , you'll get it back.

Indy's defense plays much faster on their turf at home but on grass they are a different team. Young causes problems because he can make plays with his legs. I see a close 3-4 point win for Indy but they could easily cover the spread if Tenn can't contain that offense at all.

i would be careful with Detroit. Minny has a power run game and that is where det is lacking. Minny also has a pretty decent D, I see an ugly game here but it'd be Minny if it gets to 4.

i love Jax this week. Yes 10 sounds like alot but this is an AFC vs. NFC non-con game and the AFC is that much more dominant. Name one offensive player for ATL that is a serious threat. Jerious Norwood is the only possibility, Crumpler isn't 100%. The D will turn it on Joey the turnover machine and t will be the Mo-Jones and crew show.
 
San Diego/NE
orginally liked SD with a playoff revenge factor. SD was the superbowl favorite, but NE just took that away last yr. That must be fresh on their minds. SD brings all they got. Sure they looked rusty last week, but seriously they scored 14 on Chicago- should have been 21 if Philip Rivers didn't fumble at the goal line. i mean if he makes it in, SD wins 21-3 and no1 is saying how rusty they are. I mean yea the receivers definitely didn't impress me, but they'll get more space to run against NE. Because trust me, LT WILL NOT get only 25 yrds.. which will open everything up. NE got a cupcake last week. SD will not be so easy. HOWEVER, with the whole NE is cheating scandal out, I'm starting to think NE might be extra motivated to proove that they don't need to cheat to win. Also take into account this is the home crowd welcoming to the new receievers. Small lean to SD with 4 pts though
 
Da Hoss said:
Don't worry Rook , you'll get it back.

Indy's defense plays much faster on their turf at home but on grass they are a different team. Young causes problems because he can make plays with his legs. I see a close 3-4 point win for Indy but they could easily cover the spread if Tenn can't contain that offense at all.

i would be careful with Detroit. Minny has a power run game and that is where det is lacking. Minny also has a pretty decent D, I see an ugly game here but it'd be Minny if it gets to 4.

i love Jax this week. Yes 10 sounds like alot but this is an AFC vs. NFC non-con game and the AFC is that much more dominant. Name one offensive player for ATL that is a serious threat. Jerious Norwood is the only possibility, Crumpler isn't 100%. The D will turn it on Joey the turnover machine and t will be the Mo-Jones and crew show.
Click to expand...

First of all, thanks for the Gl. Detroit will if anything be a very small play because its hard ever to bet on a team with a weak interior defense. I can just as easilt see Kitna breaking the chains8-12 yrd at a time thru this Minny D.

I would love Jacksonville this week too if it wasn't for their last performance. I mean seriously- 10 pts on Tennessee. Garrard I guess isn't used to his new role. I mean no doubt- fading ATL will be money for a while, but laying 10 is hard with this shaky Jax offense. I'm thinking of throwing them in the teaser, so a 3 team 10 pt teaser- Jacksonville, Baltimore, Chicago. But then again, this yr I straight out suck.
 
Philly/Wash
Man did philly screw me last week, but I guess in a way created value. Philly took care of their major problem last game, but still McNabb didn't look too good. Either way, this line is WAY too short. Philly at home against a young and not very good Jason Campbell. Divisional home game for Philly to avoid being 0-2, home opener against Jason Cambell. DD win imo. Heavy lean Philly large. Probably into the teaser as well
 
so far: one locked in play. Its probably the sucker bet on the board, but man. It is so hard to resist. I say the home doggs go 3-2 this week (the losers being Cleveland and TB) therefore

New Orleans -3 (-135) Tampa Bay- 270 to win 200
 
I really like NO this week, I have them at -3 as well.

I also really like Philly, but that's a Monday thing.

I do think SD wins the game, though I wish their coaching staff from last year were still there for this, but they travel very well, and travel to NE just fine.

I like Arizona a good bit too, the starting center being a rookie this week makes me hesitate some.

And Chicago, I like Chicago.

On a 10 pt. tease? Give me Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Denver. (You could also include NO, Philly, or Jax in there and I'd be fine.)
 
I didn't like anything I saw from the Niners offense. Smith is still an average QB in my mind, Darrell Jackson is vastly overrated, Vernon Davis is a freak who has yet to produce. All they have is Gore. I think the Rams should be able to outscore the 49ers this week. Gore will get his, but it won't be enough.
 
The problem with betting the Rams is their offensive line has become a mess without Pace, in the second half of that game they were pushed all over the field.

On the flipside, as you said, watching the Niners' offense doesn't really inspire confidence.
 
Joe Public said:
I really like NO this week, I have them at -3 as well.

I also really like Philly, but that's a Monday thing.

I do think SD wins the game, though I wish their coaching staff from last year were still there for this, but they travel very well, and travel to NE just fine.

I like Arizona a good bit too, the starting center being a rookie this week makes me hesitate some.

And Chicago, I like Chicago.

On a 10 pt. tease? Give me Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Denver. (You could also include NO, Philly, or Jax in there and I'd be fine.)
Click to expand...

you just named my most probable plays. :cheers: to a proftable weekend
 
BeLIEve811 said:
I didn't like anything I saw from the Niners offense. Smith is still an average QB in my mind, Darrell Jackson is vastly overrated, Vernon Davis is a freak who has yet to produce. All they have is Gore. I think the Rams should be able to outscore the 49ers this week. Gore will get his, but it won't be enough.
Click to expand...

Niner offense did look stagnant, but STL's defense looked worse. on the breakdown

Niner offense: didn't look good until the last play. However O'line did give Alex Smith time, and even though he didn't do anything with that time, its always a good sign when a young QB doesn't have to worry as much about gettin drilled after his 5 step drop. Gainde confidence

STL Defense:
Gave up almost 400 yrds. DUnno if its Delhomme stepping up for his job, or maybe it was STL weak D. Gave up a chunk to Foster and Williams, and seemed to lose it at the 4th Qtr. If wasn't for Foster's goal line fumble, it'd be 34-13 final at home.

... Two weaknesses on the field at the same time. I think the Niners offense gained confidence thru this game winning drive. STL D should ve pumped not to lose again at home, but not enough imo. Gore is too good not to do well against this D.

STL offense:
worse than I had hoped last week. Pace gone is huge
eh gtg bbl
 
back

STL offense: didn't meet my expectations. On paper, is a tough tough squad. Bulger, SJax, Holt, Bruce, Bennet, McMichael. However, they didn't produce as well as I had hoped. Add that to loss of Pace and there could be vulnerability.

SF Defense: omg, I knew they'd be good, but damn. Patrick Willis for defensive ROY. Our run D is a weakness, but a LB crew will stop the HUGE run. Secondary is fantastic. Harris, Clements, Spencer as our corners. Overall, I loved watching the Niners playing D

overall, I think this Niners D is at or aorund the same level of Carolina's. Clements vs Holt, Harris vs Bruce, Spencer vs Bennet. Willis and derek smith vs Sjax. The guns for STl seem offset with the talent on the Niners D. I see a similiar output by STL this week as last week. Divisional game, split last yr I think. I think Niners have improved mroe than STL which will give the edge. I think Niners this yr will beat average/low level teams- and it is hard to say STL is much of an above average team at this point.
 
I added...

Niners +3 (-105) STL- 315 to win 300

and

2 Team 6 Pt Teaser: Philly -1, Chicago -6- 220 to win 200
 
will add these 2m morning. Hopefully I get internet to post them, if not, here it is most likely with local's numbers:

Buffalo +10- 100 *
Tennessee +7- 100 *
Carolina -6.5- 100 *
SF +3- 200, if 3.5-400
Detroit -3- 200
Miami +4- 100 *
Arizona +3-400, if 2.5- 200
Chicago -12- 700
SD +4- 500, if 3.5- 300-400
Philly -6.5- 600, if 7- 400-500
 
Thanks Fondy

wow NO is surprising.. anyways..

2nd H

2nd H Niners +.5 (-120) STL- 360 to win 300

2nd H Jacksonville -7 (-120) Atlanta- 360 to win 300
 
Might be gone for a while, might not be able to post 4 PM games, gonna play

Det- 200 (might make it 300)
Miami-100
Arizona- 4 (if I get 3, if 2.5- 200)
Chicago-8
 
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on">just got in</st1:City>
<st1:City w:st="on"></st1:City>
<st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> -12 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas City-</st1:place></st1:City> 880 to win 800

1<SUP>st</SUP> H Chicago -7 (-120) <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas City-</st1:place></st1:City> 480 to win 400

<st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> +3.5 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Seattle-</st1:place></st1:City> 440 to win 400
<st1:City w:st="on"></st1:City>
<st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City> -3 <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Minnesota-</st1:place></st1:State> 220 to win 200
<st1:City w:st="on"></st1:City>
<st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City> +3.5 (-105) <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Dallas-</st1:place></st1:City> 210 to win 200
 
Coming up..

No way I'm putting my hard earned money in the hands of Jason Campbell. If he ends up killing me, so be it. But if he does shit as I expect against the no-win Philly in home opener on MNF off a tough loss, I want to be right. I'd hate to bet Wash and watch it happen. Gotta love how they're only showin Philly players talkin MNF. I see a straight blowout. McNabb can't be too much worse. WOLVERINE BABY

Philadelphia -7 (-110) Washington- 2200 to win 2000
 
LETS GET THIS SHIT BELIEVE! add one more.. heh. Gambling is gambling. This is gambling to the fullest- gambling that McNabb will bounce back and improve. Odds in my favor imo
 
tough monday night bro. The eagles really killed you.

I actually had the Eagles in a parlay with some college faves this weekend and after I saw how sorry they were in the 1st half I hedged out and took Wash 2nd half ML at +220. Definitely worked out for me.
 
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