Nevada @ Fresno Friday discussion

aplous

aplous

Donkey Hater
Nevada -1.5/70.5

Normally Id be leaning Hill's boys at home on national TV....2 factors that I cant seem to get over.


1) Fresno is a cancer ATS this year....0-7 last 7 and pimped me hard this year losing by 3 to Wisky catching 2.

2) Wolfpack rushes for 300 + ypg......Fresno D gives up over 200 + ypg on the ground...ouch. Also Wolfpack run D is stout, giving up less than 100 ypg.


Thoughts?:cheers:
 
Can someone please justify what is now a 5.5 point line move from Fresno-4 to Nevada-1.5?
 
Its more than Boob though, this got banged down from +4 to +2 on Sunday/Monday. Then it got hit to +1ish this week...Then Boob hit it as well. I just want someone to make sense of this almost 6 point line move. Are there 0 bets in America on Fresno tonight?
 
I mean for me, when I first looked at this game, I was ready to jump all over Nevada +4 / ML but there is no way in the world I can play this game now (Nevada side). I personally would love to hear anyone justify taking Nevada right now getting the absolute worst of the line...Maybe you can take a game where the line moved 6 points against the side you like, I certainly can not and will not.. If you get into this game and the stats and stuff, both of these teams suck for lack of a better word. Fresno can't stop running QB's and Nevada can't stop a team that throws the ball. Both teams have bad losses in conference play. Fresno is in the middle of their yearly decline but I have myself leaning to taking Fresno ML at home now just because of the difference in value from the beginning of the week to now.
 
ive only watched nevada 2 times this year, but it seems like they just eat the clock up. maybe they can just play ball control? who knows, this conference is awful.
 
unr really only has one bad loss that i see and that is the nmst loss on 10/11. the game at hawaii is a difficult one and i have seen the rainbows play very well this year. i don't like a loss at latech and close games against teams they should have blown out for fresno. they clearly are under performing and seem to fall into that list of teams with some inherent problem which keeps them from playing to their ability (fau tops my list with ecu coming up quick). i would have a very hard time backing this team given recent history of falling short of the number the last seven games straight. seven in a row sure seems like a pattern. unr or nothing for me. also think kaepernick is one of the most under rated players in the ncaa. good luck fellas...
 
After doing some reading about this game, I can't play it.. I of course lean to the over here but playing a total of 71 doesn't make me feel good. I leaned to Nevada all week when they were dogs but with the big line movement, I can not make a play on that side now. If this game was Saturday, would I bet it? The answer is no, so I am not going to bet it tonight. Tough being a degenerate. GL to whoever plays this game.
 
scraps@midnight said:
does anyone have the si % info?
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</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=60> Open
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</TD></TR><TR class=HeadOrange id=header><TD id=info_header width=40>Info
</TD><TD id=score_header width=50>Time
</TD><TD id=team_header width=135>Team
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=45># Bets
</TD><TD id=spreadpct_header width=40>Spread
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header width=40>ML
</TD><TD id=parlaypct_header width=40>Parlay
</TD><TD id=oupct_header width=40>OU
</TD><TD width=60>Pinnacle
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh2 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,2); width=60>Pinnacle
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh9 onclick=HighlightColumn(this,9); width=60>CRIS
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</TD><TD id=score width=50>11/7
9:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>113 Nevada
114 Fresno State
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>13678
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>46%
54%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>26%
74%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>Premium
Feature
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>Upgrade
Today!
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=60>72 -105
-2-107
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2 width=60>-2-106
70.5o-108
</TD><TD class=open id=sb9 width=60>-2-110
70.5 -110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb3 width=60>-2-110
71u-115
</TD><TD class=open id=sb13 width=60>-2-110
70.5 -110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb17 width=60>-1.5-110
71 -110
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ETG: Here is my reasoning for the line movement. First of all, the leading rusher and TD scorer for fresno (ryan matthews) is doubtful. Once that information came out they prolly moved the line. Also, it seems like fresno relies on rushing for its offense- although i don't think they would be able to run much on nevada's rush D anyway. another reason for the move could be because sharps are hitting nevada. i really think nevada is a pretty damn good team. they can run the ball all over anyone. it has been untimely turnovers that have been killer. one could argue that there is no reason to believe those turnovers won't continue. also, i saw this line open at fresno -2 and went to 2.5 and then made its way to nevada -2. if that is the case i don't really see much of a line movement at all except in bettor perception. if i was going to bet early and take +2 nevada I wouldn't feel ANY better than if i had -2 nevada. i still would need to win the game. i would say maybe 5% of games are decided by 2 or less?? simply put i think nevada wins this game and i would gladly lay up to 2.5.......

Just my opinion. nevada defense is pretty shitty, but i will put faith in em to bounce back from a heartbreaker in hawaii.
 
i would have a really hard time betting the under too...... fresno has one of the shittiest rush defenses in the country and that is not a good thing against arguably the best rushing team in the country. nevada defense sucks and i don't think fresno is gonna get blown out. combined w/ turnovers, kick & punt returns leading to short fields- both teams could easily get to 30. the only way an under cashes IMO is if nevada pounds the ball all night- takes off a lot of the clock- and fresno doesn't score much.
 
jimbo1227 said:
ETG: Here is my reasoning for the line movement. First of all, the leading rusher and TD scorer for fresno (ryan matthews) is doubtful. Once that information came out they prolly moved the line. Also, it seems like fresno relies on rushing for its offense- although i don't think they would be able to run much on nevada's rush D anyway. another reason for the move could be because sharps are hitting nevada. i really think nevada is a pretty damn good team. they can run the ball all over anyone. it has been untimely turnovers that have been killer. one could argue that there is no reason to believe those turnovers won't continue. also, i saw this line open at fresno -2 and went to 2.5 and then made its way to nevada -2. if that is the case i don't really see much of a line movement at all except in bettor perception. if i was going to bet early and take +2 nevada I wouldn't feel ANY better than if i had -2 nevada. i still would need to win the game. i would say maybe 5% of games are decided by 2 or less?? simply put i think nevada wins this game and i would gladly lay up to 2.5.......

Just my opinion. nevada defense is pretty shitty, but i will put faith in em to bounce back from a heartbreaker in hawaii.
Click to expand...

Jimbo - Am I missing something or hasn't Matthews been out for 5-6 games on the year now and likely out the season with possible nerve damage in his leg?
 
etg- he got a few carries last week but was very ineffective. i think books thought he might be more prominent this week but then fresno took him off the probable list.
 
i just think it is hilarious that the public appears to be slamming fresno st. when their rush defense is that bad, nevadas rush offense is that good and to top it off fresno can't cover a mutha fuckin thing vegas puts out????
 
etg- i would also agree though that it is something more than just one guy being out....
 
i like betting on teams that can just pound the fuckin ball. we will see if the fresno QB can throw it well enough for the win.
 
Fresno has no shot on defense of stopping running QB, see past results, its horrible so Nevada will certainly move the ball all day long, run for their customary 280-300yds but Fresno should be able to throw on them tonight as well.
 
I live in the "NO", the reason the line moved is because it looks like our top two running backs are not going to play tonight (Mathews and Miller). We in Fresno know never to bet on the dogs because you lose no matter what. This game for some reason stinks - because Fresno is playing horribly, there wont be many people at the game tonight as there are two great high school games in the area, so that would lead you to believe that the play would be Nevada. Usually Fresno wins the games when no body picks them. I personally wouldnt touch the game, but if I had to I would go with the over, should be a lot of points scored tonight (weather will be about 65 degrees at kick off. Good luck to all of you!
 
TJ Hooker said:
Usually Fresno wins the games when no body picks them.
Click to expand...

every source i've looked at shows the side being pretty even, but MUCH heavier money coming in on fresno st ML. one would think nevada should be the public fav looking at some of the numbers, but i'm pretty sure they are not.
 
i'm with ya on possibly looking at the over, but it is usually never fun sweating out a total in the 70's the whole game.
 
Love the Avatar TJ. Great pic.

I see an under here. Nevada should be able to stop Fresno's run.
 
Last edited:
Nevada outgained Hawaii in Honolulu, and controlled the line of scrimmage, and still lost due to TOs. Similiar to last night's game w/ TCU @ Utah.

I have no faith in Nevada as slight chalk or pick-em.

Just :popcorn: this one.
 
how can you compare TCU/UTAH to fresno/nevada?

totally different matchup here.

apples and oranges....
 
playing in hawaii will do things like that to you. time difference, midnight game.... its a tough environment to come into. i dont agree that just because nevada outgained hawaii, and lost the game due to TO's, will happen tonight just because it happened in their last game.

theyve had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, do you really think theyll let that happen again? they know they should have won that game, and theyre not about to make the same mistake twice

and you cannot compare TCU/UTAH to this game just because it happened last night and its fresh in your head.
teams outgain teams all the time and lose, just because TCU did it last night doesnt mean it has any relevance to this game.

that game was anchored by defenses and field position, whereas this one should be quiet the opposite. you say "laying points and PK" but i really dont think the points will matter in this one.

could have gotten +2.5 but decided to wait on some line movement and settled for -1. again, i dont think the spread matters here. the total is 70 for a reason
 
Unbelievable. He had daylight to hit the over and bring his team within 6 and fumbles it within 6. Couple that with Nevada not getting in at the end of the half, kicking a fieldgoal on 4th and 2 while up ten. I am snake bitten.
Should've been an easy over. Oh well. Only a 1 unit bet, but frustrating.
 
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