Nets vs. Wizards: NBA Picks and Predictions
Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards
Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena in Washington DC
Washington’s Negative Streak
Since the Wizards had to postpone several games for COVID-related reasons, they have been worse than they had ever been this season.
Currently, the Wizards are suffering a four-game ATS losing streak.
They have lost each of their last four games by at least 16 points, meaning that all four of their last opponents more than doubled the spread.
Do Not Back Washington At Any Price
In order to trust a team to cover the spread, you’ll obviously want that team to invest effort.
Washington’s lack of effort on defense helps explain why the Wizards have allowed 116 points in three of their last four games. In the one exception, the Wizards did not put pressure on the other team to score because they only produced 88 points themselves.
To put this number in perspective, the third-best offensive team in the NBA (as measured by points per game) is averaging 116 points per game.
So against Washington, teams are consistently playing as though they had one of the very best offenses in the NBA. The Nets, by the way, rank number one in averaging 121 points per game.
When Wizard players are in a position to defend or to contest opposing shots, they aren’t showing much effort.
You can spend as much time seeing what you mean as I want. Here is a link to every field goal attempted by Atlanta, which is the last team that Washington played: Video and Shotcharts
With Atlanta up 3-2, for example, Atlanta’s John Collins is being guarded by Russell Westbrook.
Collins simply turns around and shoots over Westbrook, who does absolutely nothing to deter the shot.
Westbrook — and one can say this about Bradley Beal and other Wizard regulars — do not care.
The team also lacks the athleticism and physical ability to contest shots, which is why Washington ranks last in block rate.
On offense, it could be more accurate to accuse Washington of lacking creativity or self-confidence than of lacking effort.
Bradley Beal amasses such an absurdly high usage rate because his teammates simply look to give him the ball instead of attempting anything on their own.
They put too much stock in this one player.
In its last three games, Washington is averaging 98 points per game.
To put this number into perspective, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in averaging 101.5 points per game.
Beal will put up his numbers and Westbrook, might, too, if he is being guarded by as poorly-sized and as bad a defender as Atlanta’s Trae Young.
But the Wizards lack athleticism and talent beyond those two defensive liabilities. Losing top screen-setter Thomas Bryant doesn’t help for a team that likes to run a pretty fair number of ball-screen actions.
They need more guys, though, who can beat their man and create off the dribble.
Likewise, Westbrook needs to want to explode at the rim with much greater frequency because he is at his best when he does so.
Brooklyn Offense vs. Washington Defense
Point guard Kyrie Irving is comfortable manipulating defenders to not see an upcoming screen being set.
In addition to setting up screens, Irving excels at utilizing screens with his superb ball-handling skills.
He’s a big reason why the Nets run the eighth-highest frequency of pick-and-roll plays for the ball-handler.
They match up well with a Wizard defense that allows the highest PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
People said that the Nets would not have good team chemistry. Some of their new players have a bad reputation for being selfish, for not being team players, or for being head-cases.
But newcomer James Harden has more assists per game for Brooklyn right now than he’s accrued per game at any point in his career.
Obviously it’s early. But the point is that Harden’s arrival has injected even greater team spirit into this squad.
Right now the Nets own the NBA’s fourth-highest assist rate. Brooklyn players are getting each other involved.
It won’t be hard, anyways, for Net players to create propitious one-on-one match-ups against a defense that often gets beat scheme-wise and that struggles to help its deficient athletes when they are caught guarding on an island.
The Verdict
Regardless of whether Harden plays — he is listed as ‘questionable’ with a thigh contusion — Brooklyn has the team form, momentum, match-up edge with its ball-screen defense, greater ability to scheme, athleticism, and talent to blow out Washington.
The Wizards are free-falling and now face their toughest test, a great candidate to deal them another 20-point defeat.
Best Bet: Nets -8.5 at -108 with Heritage
Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards
Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena in Washington DC
Washington’s Negative Streak
Since the Wizards had to postpone several games for COVID-related reasons, they have been worse than they had ever been this season.
Currently, the Wizards are suffering a four-game ATS losing streak.
They have lost each of their last four games by at least 16 points, meaning that all four of their last opponents more than doubled the spread.
Do Not Back Washington At Any Price
In order to trust a team to cover the spread, you’ll obviously want that team to invest effort.
Washington’s lack of effort on defense helps explain why the Wizards have allowed 116 points in three of their last four games. In the one exception, the Wizards did not put pressure on the other team to score because they only produced 88 points themselves.
To put this number in perspective, the third-best offensive team in the NBA (as measured by points per game) is averaging 116 points per game.
So against Washington, teams are consistently playing as though they had one of the very best offenses in the NBA. The Nets, by the way, rank number one in averaging 121 points per game.
When Wizard players are in a position to defend or to contest opposing shots, they aren’t showing much effort.
You can spend as much time seeing what you mean as I want. Here is a link to every field goal attempted by Atlanta, which is the last team that Washington played: Video and Shotcharts
With Atlanta up 3-2, for example, Atlanta’s John Collins is being guarded by Russell Westbrook.
Collins simply turns around and shoots over Westbrook, who does absolutely nothing to deter the shot.
Westbrook — and one can say this about Bradley Beal and other Wizard regulars — do not care.
The team also lacks the athleticism and physical ability to contest shots, which is why Washington ranks last in block rate.
On offense, it could be more accurate to accuse Washington of lacking creativity or self-confidence than of lacking effort.
Bradley Beal amasses such an absurdly high usage rate because his teammates simply look to give him the ball instead of attempting anything on their own.
They put too much stock in this one player.
In its last three games, Washington is averaging 98 points per game.
To put this number into perspective, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in averaging 101.5 points per game.
Beal will put up his numbers and Westbrook, might, too, if he is being guarded by as poorly-sized and as bad a defender as Atlanta’s Trae Young.
But the Wizards lack athleticism and talent beyond those two defensive liabilities. Losing top screen-setter Thomas Bryant doesn’t help for a team that likes to run a pretty fair number of ball-screen actions.
They need more guys, though, who can beat their man and create off the dribble.
Likewise, Westbrook needs to want to explode at the rim with much greater frequency because he is at his best when he does so.
Brooklyn Offense vs. Washington Defense
Point guard Kyrie Irving is comfortable manipulating defenders to not see an upcoming screen being set.
In addition to setting up screens, Irving excels at utilizing screens with his superb ball-handling skills.
He’s a big reason why the Nets run the eighth-highest frequency of pick-and-roll plays for the ball-handler.
They match up well with a Wizard defense that allows the highest PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
People said that the Nets would not have good team chemistry. Some of their new players have a bad reputation for being selfish, for not being team players, or for being head-cases.
But newcomer James Harden has more assists per game for Brooklyn right now than he’s accrued per game at any point in his career.
Obviously it’s early. But the point is that Harden’s arrival has injected even greater team spirit into this squad.
Right now the Nets own the NBA’s fourth-highest assist rate. Brooklyn players are getting each other involved.
It won’t be hard, anyways, for Net players to create propitious one-on-one match-ups against a defense that often gets beat scheme-wise and that struggles to help its deficient athletes when they are caught guarding on an island.
The Verdict
Regardless of whether Harden plays — he is listed as ‘questionable’ with a thigh contusion — Brooklyn has the team form, momentum, match-up edge with its ball-screen defense, greater ability to scheme, athleticism, and talent to blow out Washington.
The Wizards are free-falling and now face their toughest test, a great candidate to deal them another 20-point defeat.
Best Bet: Nets -8.5 at -108 with Heritage
