Need Some CTG Knowledge Bombs

eggman

Pretty much a regular
So I'm in a Survivor League that had about 1,000 entries at $200 per. 115k to first prize. Then 35k to 2nd prize (1 loss division) I am one of 61 left in no loss pool and I have an entry in the 1 loss pool as well. In the playoffs it moves to point spreads to thin the herd. Need to pick one ATS play for each entry this round and win to advance (obviously).

WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE ATS PLAY THIS WEEKEND? No totals.
 
All he needs is one Steelers pick and he's right back where he started.
 
Appreciate the input. I'm leaning Seattle, Packers, Steelers/Raiders in that order. It's tough as hell.
 
Well fellas......

Good news! I took the Seahawks -8.5 with my "No Loss" spot and the Packers -4.5 with my "One Loss" spot. Advanced on both obviously.....

So in the No Loss Bracket for 115k, there are 46 people left.
In the One Loss Bracket for 35k, there are 145 people left.

Contest started with 897, I have had 3 entries originally, with 2 left in play.....

Lines for next week are....
Falcons -4.5 vs. Seahawks
Chiefs -1.5 vs. Steelers
Patriots -14.5 vs. Texans
Cowboys -4.5 vs. Packers

Would love to hear everyone's favorite spots, if I take down the 115k you better bet we will have a big ole free contest on here!!!!
 
I have opinions but they are not good enough to share. i am wishing you a victory in that though. I think you are the most giving person at ctg and even though I know (think) you make a great living and have a great life, I like to see good things happen to good people.
 
plus a free contest to enter .. so I selfishly want you to win so i can win some of that too. teehee
 
Good job getting this far, and I'm guessing you know that no one at this point on this site wants their opinion to influence you. Just win.
 
FWIW I can't recall ever making it past about week 3 of a survivor contest, so you're probably way more qualified to make your pick than me and probably most here. Do your thing.
 
i know my opinion doesn't really count, but Seattle on the road is a completely different team than they are at home. I like Atlanta.
 
I don't think I'd get in front of pitt right now bUT chiefs getting no respect and tyreke hill gives them a dimension this already good team hasn't had....I'd stay away. I'd also stay away from pats game as 14.5 is so much but they're the only side I'd take there.

Packers are on a heater and have been in playoff mode for like 6 weeks now, which has been a recipe for success.

Already mentioned that most like atlanta, and I don't want to sway decisions but falcons, packers, pats are who I'd consider
 
not seeing a strong angle for either side w the game in KC...i LOVE Atl this week, but I'm always scared when I love a play too much.

I would play either Atl or GB, but gl w whatever you decide egg. rooting for ya
 
Atlanta and Dallas

Green Bay/Dallas opened up at -4. 65% of side action on Green Bay and 77% of ML is on GB, and with all of that the line has moved to -4.5 -115. Coming off of a prime number like -4 to -4.5 is huge when majority of action is on GB. Vegas making a huge stand on Dallas right now, and that would be my play, or would definitely be enough to talk me into a no play.

Atlanta opened at -3.5 and shot up to -5 immediately and has stayed there. I simply don't feel Seattle on the road has the fire power to keep up with this Atlanta team. Total is 51.5 as well, only way Seattle covers is a low scoring game and simply don't see that IMO.


GOOD LUCK AND CONGRATS ON YOUR SUCCESS REGARDLESS.
 
you could always hedge some at this point on the other side of whatever you take for the no loss pool.
 
I like Atlanta and will probably lay all those points with the Pats. The other two roadies scare me. I've always loved the rested and forgotten home teams in this round, but GB & Pitt are a little scary.
 
Think Seattle has been impressive like twice all year. Falcs look to be in a good spot. Ryan's never looked better.
 
Thanks for the info fellas, I am still really torn up about this one to be honest. Thanks for the kind works ClownCar....

1. Pats -14.5 v. Houston - so th Pats should crush them, at home, versus a team with little to no offense. They do; however, have a stifling defense even without JJ Watt. I don't know that I can lay that many points in a playoff game because you just never know if you can get back doored. In the playoffs, from what I remember, Bellichek likes to win the playoff games and once he knows he shouldn't/can't lose he goes in cruise control. Not that other coaches don't protect leads but he is better at it for sure. I just don't know how to get to taking the Pats, but can't/won't take the Texans.

2. Boys -4.5 v. Pack - agree with the sentiment that the Packers are in playoff mode and have been. I also saw them give up a hell of a lot of ground game to the Bears in Chicago which scares me in Dallas with Zeke hauling that rock and Dak able to move a well. Sort of getting the feelin the Boys are for real as well, but Rodgers looks as good as anyone out there right now.

3. KC -1.5 v. Steelers - damn do I love me some Big Ben and Antonio, and I think they can beat the Chiefs in this game and honestly feel as good about it as any play out there. I am very aware of how Ben plays on the road though, and Pitt's piss poor special teams, so that freaks me out a little bit.

4. ATL -4.5 v. Seahawks - I like the Falcons here as well, although I don't mind the Seahawks in any variety of teasers, I think Ryan is on fire as well but the week off always concerns the hell out of me.
 
I think Atlanta would be my top play. Post what you play, egg, I'd love to root for it.


He would also be getting 1.5 points on the current line plus he can turn around and hedge on Seattle at +6.

Rooting for you Egg...Best of Luck


:fingerscrossed:
 
Alright fellas, thanks for the input.

With my No Loss entry I'm taking the Steelers +1.5.
(46 left/115k prize)

With my 1 loss entry I'm taking the Falcons -4.5 (changed from Packers)
(176 left/35k prize)

Hopefully I'm alive at the end of the night!!!! Thanks for the insight!!!
 
are the entries posted?
playing the nightcap could offer hedging ops if the field gets pared in the first three

good luck
 
are the entries posted?
playing the nightcap could offer hedging ops if the field gets pared in the first three

good luck

Ding ding ding!!! They show about 15 mins before kick off. If a bunch get bumped in the first 3 games I may be calling my local for a large play oppo.
 
So far....

In No Loss Bracket
My Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5
$115,000 Prize
46 Left
Atlanta -4.5 (9 entries)
Seattle +4.5 (0 entries)
New England -14.5 (25 entries)
Houston +14.5 (0 entries)
Dallas -4.5 (0 entries)
Green Bay +4.5 (3 entries)
KC -1.5 (2 entries)
Pittsburgh +1.5 (7 entries)

One Loss Bracket
My Pick: Atlanta -4.5
$35,000 Prize
142 Left
Atlanta -4.5 (30 entries)
Seattle +4.5 (6 entries)
New England -14.5 (64 entries)
Houston +14.5 (1 entry)
Dallas -4.5 (8 entries)
Green Bay +4.5 (6 entries)
KC -1.5 (4 entries)
Pittsburgh +1.5 (22 entries)
 
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Crazy but only 7 eliminations in the One Loss pool and 0 in the No Loss pool. Intrigued to see how the numbers come back for the Sunday Night game.
 
Alright folks, need some CTG knowledge bombs!!!!

Pats -6.5 v. Steelers

Dirty Birds -4.5 v. Pack

No Loss Pool
44 left - $115,830 pot

One Loss Pool
125 left - $35,640 pot

Need 1 pick for each pool

Probably need to consider picking against myself at this point. There is a Two Loss pool worth 17k as well.

If I pick opposite myself worst case scenario I have two entries in 1 Loss pool and then I 100% pick against myself in Super Bowl to guarantee a winner in one Loss pool. Best case scenario I have one entry in no loss pool and one entry in two Loss pool. But then I don't guarantee money. Fuck. Maybe best case is two entries in one Loss pool heading into super bowl. Duck.
 
No Loss Pot -115k
- 44 remaining
One Loss Pot - 35k
-125 remaining
Two Loss Pot - 17k
- 152 remaining

So do I go for two wins this weekend knowing I could lose both and end up with a 1 loss entry and a 2 loss entry? Could also win both and stay in 0 Loss and 1 Loss. Or split and have two 1 Loss entries or a 0 loss and a two loss.

Any of these allow me to guarantee myself money in the SB by picking oppo. Just wondering if I try to prevent losing both....
 
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