Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 0 Parlay
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, August 28, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois
Properly Understanding History
A lot of people like Illinois in this match-up for the following seductive but specious reasoning: Only one season ago, Illinois beat Nebraska by 18 points in Nebraska. Now the Illini are dogged by over a touchdown to this same team at home. It's obvious that the underdog is the play.
This reasoning is problematic because it is driven by history, but its use of history is critically selective.
In order to make sense of Nebraska's 18-point loss to Illinois, one has to look at the week before.
Before facing Illinois, the Cornhuskers had just earned a huge win for their program against Penn State.
It doesn't matter that Penn State was struggling last year. The point is that it was Penn State, a big football name.
This win was perceived by players and coaches as enormously important and it was celebrated as such.
Any bettor that was cognizant of this perceived significance would have bet on Illinois in the following week because it was a classic "let-down" scenario.
The Cornhuskers were not mentally prepared to face Illinois. They repeatedly beat themselves: they had over twice as many penalty yards as Illinois. They turned the ball over five times. They seemingly forgot how to snap and how to tackle. They blew a lot of assignments and coverages.
Adrian Martinez
Another noteworthy feature of last year's game against Illinois was the absence -- until the very end -- of quarterback Adrian Martinez.
This absence was significant because, two years ago, Martinez was 22 of 34 for 328 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Illini.
Last year, Luke McCaffrey threw zero touchdowns and three picks against Illinois. When Martinez finally entered the game, he continued to show comfort against Illinois by throwing a touchdown pass.
Nebraska Pass Attack vs. Illinois Secondary
Excitement justly surrounds multiple Cornhusker wide receivers, one being graduate transfer Samori Toure.
In his last season at Montana, Toure was a 1st-team All-American.
At 6-3, he is someone with a large frame who can get downfield and be a vertical threat. He also likes to use the threat that he poses downfield to flourish in shorter routes.
Omar Manning is also somebody highly regarded. He was the second-highest JUCO prospect heading into last season, but suffered a bevy of health issues that almost entirely kept him off the field.
His offseason progress has reportedly been immense both in terms of playing well and staying healthy.
Between Toure, Manning, and a slew of exciting (based on fall camp performances) freshmen, Nebraska wide receivers plus Martinez look strong in the passing game.
They face an Illini secondary that will miss departed corner Nate Hobbs, currently with the Raiders in the NFL.
Depth is an issue in Illinois' secondary, an issue that Illinois hopes to correct by having a safety move to cornerback.
Nebraska Rush Attack vs. Illinois 3-4 Defense
Position switches always require an adjustment on the part of the player.
Playing safety and playing corner are very different in terms of timing, alignment, and other things.
But, with the switch to a 3-4 defense, additional Illini defenders will start this season in new positions.
Also noteworthy is the switches of both regular defensive ends -- Owen Carney Jr. and Isaiah Yag -- to starting outside linebacker positions.
The linebacking group will also be hindered by the departure of Milo Eifler.
Eifler, who signed with the New York Jets, would have injected meaningful experience into Illinois' current linebacking corps. He was a hard-hitter with an excellent motor.
Just like in the previous two games between these two schools, Illini linebackers will have their hands full against Nebraska's running quarterback.
Adrian Martinez is famously an excellent runner who will, yet again, exceed 100 yards rushing against Illinois.
The only concern, historically speaking, is whether the Cornhusker running backs can match Martinez's productivity on the ground.
They will be helped by an offensive line that improves annually as measured by tackles for loss per rush attempt.
There are six scholarship running backs for Nebraska worth talking about. One exciting piece, who looks ready to make an instant impact, is freshman Gabe Ervin.
Ervin, who was offered by other big-name schools like Michigan, brings strength and power at close to 200 pounds that complement surprising speed that also made him a track star in high school (he ran a 48.9 in the 400m).
Between Ervin, a transfer out of USC, and others, the Cornhusker running backs will easily get that desired prowess in the second level of the defense to add to Martinez's already proven, big-play running ability.
Illinois Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
Nebraska's run defense is characterized by size and depth.
It keeps guys fresh, guys who bring a strong presence in the trenches.
Every player who created havoc last year returns this year.
These guys helped the Cornhuskers rank 30th nationally in stuff rate.
Run defense will be huge on Saturday because it was a tremendous problem in last year's game.
But this last stuff rate statistic helps show that Nebraska has the necessary ability in its run defense.
Too often -- I think of other games, too, like the one against Minnesota -- the Cornhusker offense stalls, shoots itself in the foot, or otherwise fails to prolong drives.
Offensive time of possession is important for keeping a defense rested.
So Nebraska's offensive success in this game will help the Cornhusker run defense.
The Cornhusker pass defense looks great in this game with an extremely experienced pair of safeties and a proven cornerback.
Both Cornhusker safeties were All-Big Ten Honorable Mentions last year, while Cam Taylor-Britt was an All-Big Ten second-teamer.
JoJo Domann, a first-team Preseason All-Big Ten member as outside linebacker, will play a crucial role in coverage because Illinois loves to throw to its top tight end, Daniel Barker.
Domann ranked second among Big Ten linebackers last year in PFF coverage score due to his ability to cover tight ends.
Total Verdict
I see Nebraska's offense as being very successful in this game. It can score quickly with explosive run plays from quarterback and powerful running backs alike and with downfield passing to tall wide receivers.
Illinois' Bret Bielema wants his team to play with tempo and he'll have to in order to try to keep up with the Cornhusker offense.
For the above reasons, I think the "over" will hit in addition to Nebraska covering the spread.
Best Bet: Parlay Cornhuskers -7 at -105 & over 55 at -105 at +281 odds with BetOnline
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, August 28, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois
Properly Understanding History
A lot of people like Illinois in this match-up for the following seductive but specious reasoning: Only one season ago, Illinois beat Nebraska by 18 points in Nebraska. Now the Illini are dogged by over a touchdown to this same team at home. It's obvious that the underdog is the play.
This reasoning is problematic because it is driven by history, but its use of history is critically selective.
In order to make sense of Nebraska's 18-point loss to Illinois, one has to look at the week before.
Before facing Illinois, the Cornhuskers had just earned a huge win for their program against Penn State.
It doesn't matter that Penn State was struggling last year. The point is that it was Penn State, a big football name.
This win was perceived by players and coaches as enormously important and it was celebrated as such.
Any bettor that was cognizant of this perceived significance would have bet on Illinois in the following week because it was a classic "let-down" scenario.
The Cornhuskers were not mentally prepared to face Illinois. They repeatedly beat themselves: they had over twice as many penalty yards as Illinois. They turned the ball over five times. They seemingly forgot how to snap and how to tackle. They blew a lot of assignments and coverages.
Adrian Martinez
Another noteworthy feature of last year's game against Illinois was the absence -- until the very end -- of quarterback Adrian Martinez.
This absence was significant because, two years ago, Martinez was 22 of 34 for 328 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Illini.
Last year, Luke McCaffrey threw zero touchdowns and three picks against Illinois. When Martinez finally entered the game, he continued to show comfort against Illinois by throwing a touchdown pass.
Nebraska Pass Attack vs. Illinois Secondary
Excitement justly surrounds multiple Cornhusker wide receivers, one being graduate transfer Samori Toure.
In his last season at Montana, Toure was a 1st-team All-American.
At 6-3, he is someone with a large frame who can get downfield and be a vertical threat. He also likes to use the threat that he poses downfield to flourish in shorter routes.
Omar Manning is also somebody highly regarded. He was the second-highest JUCO prospect heading into last season, but suffered a bevy of health issues that almost entirely kept him off the field.
His offseason progress has reportedly been immense both in terms of playing well and staying healthy.
Between Toure, Manning, and a slew of exciting (based on fall camp performances) freshmen, Nebraska wide receivers plus Martinez look strong in the passing game.
They face an Illini secondary that will miss departed corner Nate Hobbs, currently with the Raiders in the NFL.
Depth is an issue in Illinois' secondary, an issue that Illinois hopes to correct by having a safety move to cornerback.
Nebraska Rush Attack vs. Illinois 3-4 Defense
Position switches always require an adjustment on the part of the player.
Playing safety and playing corner are very different in terms of timing, alignment, and other things.
But, with the switch to a 3-4 defense, additional Illini defenders will start this season in new positions.
Also noteworthy is the switches of both regular defensive ends -- Owen Carney Jr. and Isaiah Yag -- to starting outside linebacker positions.
The linebacking group will also be hindered by the departure of Milo Eifler.
Eifler, who signed with the New York Jets, would have injected meaningful experience into Illinois' current linebacking corps. He was a hard-hitter with an excellent motor.
Just like in the previous two games between these two schools, Illini linebackers will have their hands full against Nebraska's running quarterback.
Adrian Martinez is famously an excellent runner who will, yet again, exceed 100 yards rushing against Illinois.
The only concern, historically speaking, is whether the Cornhusker running backs can match Martinez's productivity on the ground.
They will be helped by an offensive line that improves annually as measured by tackles for loss per rush attempt.
There are six scholarship running backs for Nebraska worth talking about. One exciting piece, who looks ready to make an instant impact, is freshman Gabe Ervin.
Ervin, who was offered by other big-name schools like Michigan, brings strength and power at close to 200 pounds that complement surprising speed that also made him a track star in high school (he ran a 48.9 in the 400m).
Between Ervin, a transfer out of USC, and others, the Cornhusker running backs will easily get that desired prowess in the second level of the defense to add to Martinez's already proven, big-play running ability.
Illinois Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
Nebraska's run defense is characterized by size and depth.
It keeps guys fresh, guys who bring a strong presence in the trenches.
Every player who created havoc last year returns this year.
These guys helped the Cornhuskers rank 30th nationally in stuff rate.
Run defense will be huge on Saturday because it was a tremendous problem in last year's game.
But this last stuff rate statistic helps show that Nebraska has the necessary ability in its run defense.
Too often -- I think of other games, too, like the one against Minnesota -- the Cornhusker offense stalls, shoots itself in the foot, or otherwise fails to prolong drives.
Offensive time of possession is important for keeping a defense rested.
So Nebraska's offensive success in this game will help the Cornhusker run defense.
The Cornhusker pass defense looks great in this game with an extremely experienced pair of safeties and a proven cornerback.
Both Cornhusker safeties were All-Big Ten Honorable Mentions last year, while Cam Taylor-Britt was an All-Big Ten second-teamer.
JoJo Domann, a first-team Preseason All-Big Ten member as outside linebacker, will play a crucial role in coverage because Illinois loves to throw to its top tight end, Daniel Barker.
Domann ranked second among Big Ten linebackers last year in PFF coverage score due to his ability to cover tight ends.
Total Verdict
I see Nebraska's offense as being very successful in this game. It can score quickly with explosive run plays from quarterback and powerful running backs alike and with downfield passing to tall wide receivers.
Illinois' Bret Bielema wants his team to play with tempo and he'll have to in order to try to keep up with the Cornhusker offense.
For the above reasons, I think the "over" will hit in addition to Nebraska covering the spread.
Best Bet: Parlay Cornhuskers -7 at -105 & over 55 at -105 at +281 odds with BetOnline
