NCAAF Week 9

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Overall: 194-140 (+47.50 units)

Games played in futures markets:

USC -1.5 @ Colorado -110 (1 unit)
FSU -1 v. Syracuse -115 (1 unit)
 
Good job bro. Good luck this week.

They need to get Tua in the cyro chamber. Dude's ankle might be a problem his whole career unfortunately.
 
HUNT said:
Good job bro. Good luck this week.

They need to get Tua in the cyro chamber. Dude's ankle might be a problem his whole career unfortunately.
Click to expand...
Thanks, mane. This was actually the other ankle. Bad luck as much as anything.
 
USC -1.5 @ Colorado -110 (1 unit)

Pitt -3 v. Miami -115 (1 unit)
Illinois/Purdue Over 57.5 -110 (1 unit)
Wisconsin +14.5 @ Ohio State -108 (1 unit)
Ball State -2.5 v. Ohio -110 (1 unit)
Nevada/Wyoming Under 50 -110 (1 unit)

FSU -1 v. Syracuse -115 (1 unit)
MOH/Kent State Over 55 -110 (1 unit)
Tulane +3.5 @ Navy -108 (1 unit)
Duke/UNC Over 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
TCU/Texas Under 63 -110 (1 unit)
Indiana/Nebraska Over 54 -110 (1 unit)
Auburn/LSU Under 60.5 -105 (1 unit)

Troy/Georgia State Over 67.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado State/Fresno State Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas/Alabama Under 59.5 -115 (1 unit)
Arizona State/UCLA Over 55 -110 (1 unit)

Utah State/Air Force Over 59 -105 (1 unit)

Couple FD totals in there.
 
RetroVK said:
You leave a zero off that FSU #? :cool:
Click to expand...
Funny enough, IIRC, you asked me about this one in September right after I'd bet it. The range of emotions Ive felt about this bet for past 6 or so weeks is really broad. I feel great after I watch Cuse play and then equally as disgusted once I see FSU player later that day. Rinse and repeat. If both Cuse's QBs weren't hurtin, I'd grab a 10/10.5 and keep it movin. Think I'm sitting with the nuts right now though.
 
Games in futures markets:

Week 10:

Army +10.5 @ Air Force -110 (1 unit) (Have Army PK already, whoops!)
Nebraska +4 @ Purdue -110 (1 unit) (Have Purdue +2 already)

Week 11:

Tulsa +18.5 v. UCF -110 (1 unit) (Have UCF -7.5 already. This number may not have peaked yet, so I may end up betting more. Wanted to lock in some now though)

Week 13:

Oklahoma -20 v. TCU +100 (2.5 units) (This effectively zeroes out my previous +21 for 2.5u on TCU)
TCU +25.5 @ Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
 
PaintCrew said:
Thanks for everything as always CK. I was curious to get your thoughts on Texas/TCU from a side perspective?
Click to expand...
My spidey sense really pointing me to TCU. I don't think their offense is built to exploit Texas' clear weakness, the secondary, which is a huge reason why I like the under. Hard to trust TCU offense though. I have no idea what their plan is most weeks. I don't know that just lining up and pounding Texas is the best plan, but I hope they do for the under. Texas has only been tested on defense once this year, maybe twice but LSU wasn't in form then, so I think they will struggle to do their usual. Gut says TCU, but I think under best way to go.
 
RetroVK said:
What other games you see as weather effected, Franchise?
Click to expand...
I don't know which states are which up in the Montana range but it looks grim up that way towards Canada. Then looks like the majority of the SEC, ACC, Big 10 regions from midwest across to atlantic look to be wet with primaries being in Alabama, Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky states all look heavier, Basically it looks to be starting in Texas now and working northeast for next few days. Overall looks to be a typically windy, fall saturday across most the country.
 
Have you come across anything saying Beuchele is hurt? Another thread some guy says so, or implies it, unless he is talking about the backup. But he seems to think the total has gone down based on injury news and the only news was good news (Tune back in). I am wondering if I am missing something.
 
RetroVK said:
Have you come across anything saying Beuchele is hurt? Another thread some guy says so, or implies it, unless he is talking about the backup. But he seems to think the total has gone down based on injury news and the only news was good news (Tune back in). I am wondering if I am missing something.
Click to expand...
Not a peep. It's either a misunderstanding or whoever said that is SUPER connected there.
 
CrimsonK said:
Not a peep. It's either a misunderstanding or whoever said that is SUPER connected there.
Click to expand...
K thanks ... says both qbs are banged up ... but Tune being in over Holg jr is good news and Shane is ok far as I know. I must be reading it wrong or it was maybe a mistake by him in what he was trying to convey
 
It could have been speculatively with the weather. Rain forecasted to start right after game ends and go for 14 hours. Doesn't look to impact game as of now though.
 
Both Tulane and San Jose St have faced the option within the last month so some defensive principles they practiced and played live against should help them.

I like Tulane at Navy as well.

Do you have any feelings on the San Jose - Army matchup? SJ didn't fair well on D that AF game, although thinking back to all those wasted possessions SJ's O left in AF territory showed they were capable to trade with AF (except for the actual scoring part). Army in total funk and has rivalry game vs AF on deck.
 
s--k said:
Both Tulane and San Jose St have faced the option within the last month so some defensive principles they practiced and played live against should help them.

I like Tulane at Navy as well.

Do you have any feelings on the San Jose - Army matchup? SJ didn't fair well on D that AF game, although thinking back to all those wasted possessions SJ's O left in AF territory showed they were capable to trade with AF (except for the actual scoring part). Army in total funk and has rivalry game vs AF on deck.
Click to expand...
Will respond tomorrow.
 
Weather:

Illinois/Purdue Under 57.5 -105 (1 unit)

That pretty much zeroes me out on the entire card on totals against weather. Flaw in my strategy from past is letting weather games ride and I'm tired of it costing me. Goes with the territory of betting a week or months in advance.
 
s--k said:
Both Tulane and San Jose St have faced the option within the last month so some defensive principles they practiced and played live against should help them.

I like Tulane at Navy as well.

Do you have any feelings on the San Jose - Army matchup? SJ didn't fair well on D that AF game, although thinking back to all those wasted possessions SJ's O left in AF territory showed they were capable to trade with AF (except for the actual scoring part). Army in total funk and has rivalry game vs AF on deck.
Click to expand...

SJSU didn’t stop much that game against AFA, they were just brutally unlucky with their offense. They should have scored much more. I generally give service academies the benefit of the doubt on not looking ahead. I’ve never tested that hypothesis, but it’s a macro belief of mine. I considered over 50, but that was more intuition than nuts and bolts handicapping. I have little faith SJSU gets defensive stops and I have slightly less confidence that their offensive speed doesn’t overwhelm army’s secondary. Side and total seem fine to me, but I didn’t spend much time on this game. I don’t handicap the whole card this time of year.
 
Future games:

Iowa State +14 @ Oklahoma -120 (1.5 units)

Baylor +13 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit) (2 total at 13/13.5)
 
CrimsonK said:
My spidey sense really pointing me to TCU. I don't think their offense is built to exploit Texas' clear weakness, the secondary, which is a huge reason why I like the under. Hard to trust TCU offense though. I have no idea what their plan is most weeks. I don't know that just lining up and pounding Texas is the best plan, but I hope they do for the under. Texas has only been tested on defense once this year, maybe twice but LSU wasn't in form then, so I think they will struggle to do their usual. Gut says TCU, but I think under best way to go.
Click to expand...

Really appreciate it! Best of luck as always
 
Assuming logical coaching prop:

Jalen Reagor Over 4 catches -120
Jalen Reagor Over 47.5 rec yards -120
 
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