NCAAF Week 9

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Overall: 181-107 (+106.37 units)

GOY:

Washington -11.5 v. UCLA -110 (1.5 units)
Texas +1 @ Baylor -110 (1 unit)
 
Gogogogo

Like both of them, guessing you'll dust those numbers of course...UT getting a point is funny
 
KJ said:
Gogogogo

Like both of them, guessing you'll dust those numbers of course...UT getting a point is funny
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Thanks. I would guess UT will be in the -10.5 range and Washington -16.5. Who knows, perhaps the UCLA faithful will feel rejuvenated after remembering what an ATS win feels like and that either starts lower or gets bet down a bit?
 
Honestly I don't know how to approach UW right now, just toss that game against ASU? Every aspect of that team looked lost including Peterson not using TOs before HT, like just a deer in headlights across the board. Now seeing the random increase in defensive intensity from the Devils, obv UW wasn't a fluke after that performance at Utah, it's a head scratcher to me....I think I still like UW to steamroll the Bruins, but to say it isn't a tad confusing would be lying.
 
Browning owns bad secondaries like a pro but UW has murphy and i think their second corner injured too, from a secondary already missing three solid departures...I have to think Rosen can put up big numbers as well
 
KJ said:
Honestly I don't know how to approach UW right now, just toss that game against ASU? Every aspect of that team looked lost including Peterson not using TOs before HT, like just a deer in headlights across the board. Now seeing the random increase in defensive intensity from the Devils, obv UW wasn't a fluke after that performance at Utah, it's a head scratcher to me....I think I still like UW to steamroll the Bruins, but to say it isn't a tad confusing would be lying.
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I made this bet before Washington had shown some of their weaknesses and suffered some secondary attrition so I like it a bit less than I did then. I knew I would, at the very least, have value and opportunity for a middle. That being said, I do think the Washington offense can and will do pretty much whatever they want in this game. I won't be fooled by Oregon's performance last week into thinking that UCLA has figured it out on defense. This is still very much a 500+ yard and 35+ point defense against any team with an above average offense. While Washington greatly differs from Memphis stylistically, this will be the best pass attack they've seen since then. VC mentioned the UW attrition in the secondary and this is very much the type of pass offense that will have the back door wide open but the Huskies could very easily just pound them into oblivion. Also, this time of year, I pretty much handicap PNW games assuming there will be bad weather (I didn't on the Wazzu total LW) and I think that possibility helps UW as well. I'm not a bettor that usually lays this many points and I would def entertain playing UCLA if this opens much higher than 16.5 but in general I feel like UW is prob a pretty good matchup and should win fairly easily.
 
Thanks man, I agree I think...just was thrown quite the jaw dropper in that last game and I know not to put a ton of weight into one game, they looked lost and guess I'll hope, like you, they become UW again. It was one of the most puzzling games I've ever seen.
 
UW's best defense will be it's very physical rush attack. I think they can do to ucla's defense very much what they did to colorado's likewise soft and undersized defense. I agree not jumping over ucla's game vs oregon who is just a vastly inferior team without herbert
 
VirginiaCavs said:
UW's best defense will be it's very physical attack. I think they can do to ucla's defense very much what they did to colorado's likewise soft and undersized defense. I agree not jumping over ucla's game vs oregon who is just a vastly inferior team without herbert
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Ya, Oregon without Herbert right now is trash. I had a little on the under last game with UCLA but wish I had more. Kinda got fooled into thinking with an extra week to prep a QB they would show more life. Nope.
 
CrimsonK said:
Ya, Oregon without Herbert right now is trash. I had a little on the under last game with UCLA but wish I had more. Kinda got fooled into thinking with an extra week to prep a QB they would show more life. Nope.
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There's only so much we can know about how these guys' practices go during the week(s)
 
Florida Atlantic +1.5 @ Western Kentucky -110 (2.5 units)
West Virginia +8 v. Oklahoma State -110 (1.5 units)
Utah +3 v. Oregon -110 (1.5 units)
 
GOY:

Washington -11.5 v. UCLA -110 (1.5 units)
Texas +1 @ Baylor -110 (1 unit)

Florida Atlantic +1.5 @ Western Kentucky -110 (2.5 units)
West Virginia +8 v. Oklahoma State -110 (1.5 units)
Utah +3 @ Oregon -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico @ Wyoming +4 -110 (1.5 units)
NC State +7.5 @ Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)

FAU/Western Kentucky Over 59.5/60 -110 (4.5 units)
Missouri/UConn Over 69.5/70.5 -110 (3 units)
Eastern Michigan/NIU Over 42 -110 (2.5 units)
Arkansas State/New Mexico State Over 63 -110 (2 units)
NC State/Notre Dame Under 61.5 -110 (2 units)
Minnesota/Iowa Under 44 -110 (1.5 units)
Kansas State/Kansas Under 62.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Washington State/Arizona Under 64.5 -116 (1 unit)
Indiana/Maryland Under 54 -111 (1 unit)
GT/Clemson Under 52 -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State/WVU Over 74 -110 (1 unit)
 
I got so drunk on Saturday, I accidently bet a few of the opposite of the plays you made on Saturday night.
 
booksbestfriend said:
SJSU gonna score all those?
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haha, I won't be upset if they do! Should be worst one of worst defenses that BYU has seen this season. I think SJSU is a functional offense with Aaron under center - he is very clearly their best option. Think this is an instance where the market hasn't respected the QB change for SJSU and Mangum has faced primarily good defenses when he has been healthy this season and that has depressed the number some. Last week being the exception but Mangum did throw for 300+ even if a good bit came in garbage time. Quite a few scenarios I can envision with how this one gets to 45+. Don't love it but a sub-45 CFB total, this should not be.
 
GOY:

Week 10:
Texas A&M +13.5 v. Auburn -110 (1.5 units)

Week 12:
USC -7.5 v. UCLA -110 (1.5 units)

Week 13:
Ole Miss +17.5 @ Mississippi State -110 (2.5 units)
 
cubsker said:
thought the kid from old piss looked okay vs LSU
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I'm excited for him. This offense is pretty straightforward. Only a handful of plays and you have a ridiculous assortment of talent at WR. I think the thing about this dude is he a true dual-threat. Shea is plenty mobile and creates but I think Ta'amu can actually contribute more to the run game which has recently gotten going. I would bet Ole Miss +17.5 with Hug Freeze at QB in the Egg Bowl. I don't know if a team will play a more passionate or inspired game than they will. I've been waiting to bet them all year in this game and finally got the number I wanted.
 
CK - I wanted to ask you about your thoughts regarding GA/FLA this weekend? What did you make the game? I just can't see how FLA is going to be able to do much offensively in this one and am tempted to lay the 14. I see a game like 28-7 GA here.
 
Timh said:
CK - I wanted to ask you about your thoughts regarding GA/FLA this weekend? What did you make the game? I just can't see how FLA is going to be able to do much offensively in this one and am tempted to lay the 14. I see a game like 28-7 GA here.
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I made it -14.5/44. If Tyrie Cleveland and Kadarius Toney were going to be healthy and play I may make side little less and total little higher. I think both of those guys are pretty important. UGA has made it pretty clear you're not running on them. Cleveland is their premiere deep threat and Toney actually causes some offensive creativity to sneak out of Nuss and Mac. It wouldn't surprise me if they hold UGA under 30 but I think that will be dependent on their ability to sustain some drives. With as beat up as they are and the likelihood they will have to lean on their passing game I have some concerns about that. I'm generally not one to lay two TD and feel less inclined in a rivalry game. Also, worth noting that I'm 31 and in my lifetime I've only witnessed two UGA/UF games where UGA would have covered 14. I'm not a huge trend guy but stuff like that isn't lost on me, some teams just play better against certain teams. I really like this UGA team but I think it's also worth noting that we really don't know how Fromm and the entire offense will respond if they get in a hole. The UF rush defense is a good group but it seems their LB often fill the wrong gaps on runs and they end up getting beat for big plays. If I'm laying two scores I generally want the talent gap to be lot wider than this and combine the rivalry aspect and it's a pass for me. I have an inkling of a prop I want to be but we will see if the stars align..
 
CrimsonK said:
haha, I won't be upset if they do! Should be worst one of worst defenses that BYU has seen this season. I think SJSU is a functional offense with Aaron under center - he is very clearly their best option. Think this is an instance where the market hasn't respected the QB change for SJSU and Mangum has faced primarily good defenses when he has been healthy this season and that has depressed the number some. Last week being the exception but Mangum did throw for 300+ even if a good bit came in garbage time. Quite a few scenarios I can envision with how this one gets to 45+. Don't love it but a sub-45 CFB total, this should not be.
Click to expand...

I like it. Was thinking of playing San Jose, but as you said a couple weeks ago, the total might be better way to go. Agree on SJSt QB situation.

Last week BYU-ECU hit 50 pts. Some short drives there for pts, but BYU did have 421 yards, their best of the season and SJ D should be as cooporative as ECU, or worse. Then ECU topped 400 as well and actually gained the 3rd best ypplay allowed by BYU D this year. I have some faith that SJSt can move it a bit on them.
 
One thing on Washington, I don't lay 3 scores unless it is a nonconference layup game. So I'm not taking them, but do feel that there is nothing wrong with UW front 7 and it is really good. I would expect Rosen to get alot of pressure, as he has all year, and take some sacks, as he has all year, and probably make some bad decisions, as he has all year. Husky secondary hard to trust right now, but hopefully they recruited well and have some talent to roll out there. That CB that was lost got hurt on the final possession, so not sure who would've been out there to replace him. But UW D held AzSt to their lowest O output. Devils played conservative down the stretch and didn't try much, I'm sure they would've if they had to. What I'm saying is the UW D should be able to limit Bruins from what I've seen.
 
Kinda funky here:

Ok State/WVU Under 73 -110 (1 unit)

Already have over 74 but doing my best to get out of it.

Adding:

West Virginia ML +240 (1 unit)
West Virginia +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
Added to 1.5 u on +8
 
booksbestfriend said:
I hope you win by half time. I think Rssul & Green are going to get some touches without Patrick. I wonder if Laborn gets his RS stripped. Should be an all gands on deck game for the Noles.
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Jimbo's history is not very friendly towards a RBBC. He tends to be a RB1 and then split up the rest. Granted, he had the best back in ACC with Dalvin Cook but in Akers he has a similar talent and likely first round pick. Read an article with Jimbo saying they were going to "get Cam going" following the news that Patrick was OFY. When I look at comparable RBs and how they have fared against BC, I see:

Adams 18-229
Etienne 9-113
Feaster 20-73
Bonnafon 12-107

The key element MAY be that they all have running QBs and we know that is the recipe to kill BC so perhaps Akers doesn't go nuts. I personally think this is his coming out party. Last three for Cam:

20-121
15-115
16-75

Game seven for one of the most talented TrFr RB in the most talented class of RB I have personally ever watched. I expect he feeds of knowing he is the guy and I'll get freaky here and say he goes for 150.
 
You have to go back before DC to see RBBC. The year prior was 4 backs sharing the ball and each was special in the own way. Freeman/Wilder/K Williams/L Pryor. Not knocking your play. Think it hits if he is decisive. Too much jitter-bug behind the line and we are both done.
 
booksbestfriend said:
You have to go back before DC to see RBBC. The year prior was 4 backs sharing the ball and each was special in the own way. Freeman/Wilder/K Williams/L Pryor. Not knocking your play. Think it hits if he is decisive. Too much jitter-bug behind the line and we are both done.
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I wasn't trying to be combative either. Written words are hard, sometimes. I believe he will be decisive. Part of what I was attempting to articulate was that he is about at the point where I would expect the light to fully come on for him. Given that he was a QB in HS it takes a bit of time to understand the nuances of playing RB as well as the speed of the game. If he finds (m)any creases I think he should rip off chunk plays, just don't think very highly of Bfs athletes.
 
vk said:
Ya
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Could be. Gonna see what happens there with the number and a few other factors. I'm not trying to be evasive to be a dick I just have a sense of obligation to not share a whole lot behind the change of projection on that one.
 
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