NCAAF Week 8

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Overall: 165-90 (+104.87 units)

GOY:

Penn State -4 v. Michigan -110 (2 units)
Oregon PICK @ UCLA -110 (1.5 units)
Houston -3 v. Memphis -110 (1.5 units)
Duke +3 v. Pitt -120 (1 unit)
 
Whose GOY had PSU at -4? I remember Southpoint released it at something crazy like -14 and mich got hit pretty hard but not all the way down to -4.
 
AliShaheed said:
Whose GOY had PSU at -4? I remember Southpoint released it at something crazy like -14 and mich got hit pretty hard but not all the way down to -4.
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I bet this on 9/25 - 5dimes, BetUSA and Sportsbook all had it at 4. Not sure where it was pre-season. Was -7ish IIRC last week after the Michigan loss. Should be between 7 and 10 today at release.
 
Colorado State -6.5 @ New Mexico -110 (1 unit)
UAB -4 @ Charlotte -110 (1 unit)
UCF -6.5 @ Navy -110 (1 unit)
UNLV -2 v. Utah State -110 (1 unit)
Wake Forest +8.5 @ GT -110 (1 unit)
 
Yeah, I remember seeing the 4 several weeks ago and thinking what a great middle for those that played months ago...

And Dimes had -6.5 last Monday...another solid middle or obviously real great value on today's opener.
 
AliShaheed said:
-6.5 to -11.5 is a pretty big adjustment under the circumstances...

It's not like mich revealed who they really were in the Indiana game. Their play has been pretty consistent from the outset.
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Ya, it's a sizable jump. The problem with this line of thinking, IMO, is that you are conceding that -6.5 was a good number to begin with.
 
I am thinking Michigan is probably a good play at dd. Thoughts?

Great job on the numbers as usual and probably the greatest cfb season I have ever seen someone have. What makes it better, is that you are doing it in a very unique, ahead of the curve, thinking outside the box kind of way.

Keep it rolling and glad to see you on ucf. I need every win I can get.
 
vk said:
I am thinking Michigan is probably a good play at dd. Thoughts?

Great job on the numbers as usual and probably the greatest cfb season I have ever seen someone have. What makes it better, is that you are doing it in a very unique, ahead of the curve, thinking outside the box kind of way.

Keep it rolling and glad to see you on ucf. I need every win I can get.
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Thanks, Kyle. Appreciate the kind words!

I certainly wouldn't have a gripe with anyone that took DD with a very good defense like Michigans. That being said, without having heard your rationale for why you like them, I'd prob suggest that you could accomplish your goal with the total or team total and not have to rely as much on Michigan's offensive offense. Side note: one thing that I think I've done this year better than others is attack games the winning way. Many times in past years I'd bet the side when I really should have bet the total because that was really the mission I was setting out to accomplish. I haven't been perfect with my approach this year but definitely improved and I think that's one reason why I'm moving at a better clip than I ever have - along with a lot of positive variance and the ability to bet into really inefficient markets at open/on GOYs. Back to the game, I think the only shot Michigan has is to dirty things up and win the TO battle by a pretty considerable margin. With field position and turnovers being equal, I think PSU prob wins this by DD more often than not. What happens if Michigan trails early here in this environment? Do you trust any QB on that roster to keep them in it? Maybe Peters or McCaffrey can be the guy but that feels like a lot of guessing for my taste. The Penn State offense may have taken a considerable step backwards this season and if that is in fact the case, the game under or Penn state team total under may be my preferred approach. That's obviously doing a fair bit of guessing considering we haven't seen a total yet but I'm assuming it will be within 2 points of 50 (48-52). That's implied score of roughly 30-20. Again, I'm guessing at your rationale but if someone liked Michigan I may suggest going under 50ish or Penn State TT U28.5 <
 
If it is totaled high 40ies it is a mistake though. I am thinking it will come out more in the 44 area. I would have no problem having both Michigan and the under in a game totaled 50. If PSU can get to mid thirties and beat me twice so be it. I don't think we see 50 though ck
 
Marshall/MTSU Over 43.5/45.5 -110 (4 units)
Colorado State/New Mexico Over 58 -110 (1 unit)
Troy/Georgia State Over 44 -110 (1.5 units)
North Texas/FAU Over 57.5 -110 (2.5 units)
Northern Illinois/Bowling Green Over 49 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse/Miami Over 54 -105 (1 unit)
Maryland/Wisconsin Under 54.5 -110 (1 unit)
Wyoming/Boise State Under 49 -127 (1 unit)
Kansas/TCU Under 66 -110 (2.5 units)
Idaho/Missouri Over 60 -110 (2 units)
Utah State/UNLV Under 63 -110 (1 unit)
Illinois/Minnesota Over 45.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Auburn/Arkansas Under 57 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville/FSU Under 56 -110 (1 unit)
USC/Notre Dame Under 61 -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma/Kansas State Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
LSU/Ole Miss Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arizona State/Utah Under 57 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado/Washington State Over 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
 
Yeah, no way was a PSU/UM total reaching 48-52.

I was hoping selfishly 44-46 but 42 was my guess and there is the ole 42.5 or so sitting right there... Need some movement in my direction to get the play I want.
 
vk said:
If it is totaled high 40ies it is a mistake though. I am thinking it will come out more in the 44 area. I would have no problem having both Michigan and the under in a game totaled 50. If PSU can get to mid thirties and beat me twice so be it. I don't think we see 50 though ck
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I stand corrected. Opened 43 at both BOL and BM
 
vk said:
I am thinking Michigan is probably a good play at dd. Thoughts?

Great job on the numbers as usual and probably the greatest cfb season I have ever seen someone have. What makes it better, is that you are doing it in a very unique, ahead of the curve, thinking outside the box kind of way.

Keep it rolling and glad to see you on ucf. I need every win I can get.
Click to expand...

One step ahead.

The in-season GOY's is the most brilliant capping thing in sometime. Obviously having the market get a bit bigger is nice too. Some of these are a joke. in 17 days time you could of had a 10.5 point middle on ND and USC...just sick...
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah, no way was a PSU/UM total reaching 48-52.

I was hoping selfishly 44-46 but 42 was my guess and there is the ole 42.5 or so sitting right there... Need some movement in my direction to get the play I want.
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Really thought it would open considerably higher but lesson learned. Do not pickle the beast (AKA VK)!
 
CrimsonK said:
Really thought it would open considerably higher but lesson learned. Do not pickle the beast (AKA VK)!
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Yeah, I have noticed lots of chatter about higher openers on Michigan games like Florida/Purdue and Sparty this year. Trust me, I wish it was. If that line was 10-50 right now I would have a multi-unit wager ready to fire on Saturday.
 
Great job here this year. I can't imagine how much work goes into looking for opening lines that are going to move 6 points in your favor. Very impressive. Good luck again this week.
 
CK I have two questions about your line setting. Clearly you have a pre-conceived expectation of what the lines should be.

1. How far in advance do you set your own lines?
2. How much variance do you require to make it a play?

I only truly follow the NFL & set lines say now for the week 8 games. I'm sure others set them a couple weeks in advance. I heard a couple guys talking on the VSIN station on Sirius yesterday about setting lines during the pre-season. To me that sounds crazy as it's way too early to tell what team will show up. Nobody saw NYG starting 0-5 or Pats having one of the shittiest D's in the league. I know I'm talking mostly NFL but the same theory applies in college.
 
Zeke said:
CK I have two questions about your line setting. Clearly you have a pre-conceived expectation of what the lines should be.

1. How far in advance do you set your own lines?
2. How much variance do you require to make it a play?

I only truly follow the NFL & set lines say now for the week 8 games. I'm sure others set them a couple weeks in advance. I heard a couple guys talking on the VSIN station on Sirius yesterday about setting lines during the pre-season. To me that sounds crazy as it's way too early to tell what team will show up. Nobody saw NYG starting 0-5 or Pats having one of the shittiest D's in the league. I know I'm talking mostly NFL but the same theory applies in college.
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1. In the summer I will go through team's schedules as I'm working on them and note certain games that I think will be good or spots for a team. The spots/situations are less likely to change than the x's and o's, because as you said, some stuff is hard to foresee. For example, I had this Penn State spot circled this summer as a definite play on PSU and once I saw a -4, which is pretty much just asking them to win, I bet it. I go through the GOY card every week and see how the market responds to the prior week's results and if I see something I like, I take it. I also have a couple GOY I will prob bet but I'll hold off as I think my value could improve with another week or two's results. I will start handicapping Week 9 today and just go through and look for targets. I don't try to handicap every game I just focus on teams I feel I know best and areas where I perceived there could be value. I don't set lines for whole year in the pre-season, would be big waste of time for me.

2. It depends. This is more art than science for me so I have some soft parameters in place but not really a rigid boundary. Over past few years I've been valuing key numbers more than raw variance. I know that is Capping 101 in NFL but less-so in CFB, but it's grown in importance to me. For example, I'd make GT around -4 this week but I was only going to take Wake if I got a 7 or more. On sides for me sometimes it's as simple as if I can get a hook on certain numbers then I'll take them. Sides are much easier for oddsmakers to make in CFB and while they have gotten better on totals, they still aren't good. But still far too few bettors try to beat them. Totals I will prob bet if my variance is as small as a FG but again it all depends. Troy/Ga St at 44 for example was one that based on how many key numbers are bypassed it made that an easy decision to bet. I didn't make it much higher but even if I made 47/48 then you gotta take a 44. If you have ever heard of a book/test called the Clifton's Strenghtsfinders this may make sense but my two highest "strengths" are called learner (self explanatory) and input. Input means my brain is like a library of (sometimes) useless information and other times valuable information. So when I said this is more art than science to me it's because the way I'm wired is I just read, listen, absorb as much data and information as possible and then kinda use a "Thin-Slicing" (Gladwell) technique when lines are released and trust my instincts to lead me into the right spaces. Maybe that's too much info but it's just kinda a process of realizing my strengths as a human being and doing this for past decade that has evolved into what I currently do.
 
CHSGTMD said:
keep up the great work CK, hoping for lots more wins your way this weekend.
tailed you on some of your totals last week so thanks for those :cheers3:
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Glad they worked out! Hope I can get lucky on this MTSU/Marshall biggie. Trash handicap by me but ball bouncing my way so I'm not dead yet.
 
Bailing out of Colorado/Washington State total. Been monitoring this weather all week and it looks to be pretty impactful and I think changes the complexion of this game a good bit.

Colorado/Washington State Under 53.5 -125 (1 unit)
 
Crimson after watching that Nevada game I understand what you mean about the "best" bet for certain games. I had Nev TT along with points and ML. Those extra units would have been better served just on the TT. The variance was there for them to win the game but the more likely scenario is them covering the TT but not covering the game. Keep it up.
 
ksimpsc said:
Crimson after watching that Nevada game I understand what you mean about the "best" bet for certain games. I had Nev TT along with points and ML. Those extra units would have been better served just on the TT. The variance was there for them to win the game but the more likely scenario is them covering the TT but not covering the game. Keep it up.
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Glad it made sense. That was a game I think I left money on the table on though. I was pretty close to betting over 64 and Nevada +7 as well, which all would have won in this instance but again I think I prob would have been better served just betting all that volume on the TT which was at the crux of what all those leans were.
 
CrimsonK said:
Glad it made sense. That was a game I think I left money on the table on though. I was pretty close to betting over 64 and Nevada +7 as well, which all would have won in this instance but again I think I prob would have been better served just betting all that volume on the TT which was at the crux of what all those leans were.
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Yes I agree for those to hit you most likely need the TT O28.5 so the extra risk on the different bets felt a bit much. Thanks for the insight.
 
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