NCAAF Week 7

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Overall: 153-108 (+26.81 units)

Games played in futures market:

NC State -4 v. Syracuse +100 (1 unit)
Syracuse +11.5 @ NC State -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Houston -120 (1 unit)
Virginia +11.5/14 @ Miami -120 (2 units)
FSU +28/33.5 @ Clemson -115 (avg) (2 units)
Texas +14.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (5 units)
Oklahoma -6 v. Texas -115 (3 units)
Vanderbilt -15 v. UNLV -115 (1 unit)
Iowa State -2.5 @ WVU -110. (1 unit)
USC +14 @ Notre Dame -110 (1.5 units)
LSU -6 v. Florida -115 (1 unit)
 
That Texas+ should be enough as I think Ehlinger is going to score quite a bit . Would really help if Colin Johnson played but his hammy is still iffy. OU is going to score in droves. Best players in the secondary for the Horns are on the bench dinged up and, as concerning, the defensive line is showing no ability to rush the passer.
 
Leave this here, but many know LSU moved Fulton to the slot because well, Kary Vincent hasn’t been performing.
They started Cordale Flott at CB last week, I remain reserved there but I’ll defer to Raymond and he played well last week. Well Flott is OUT.
 
All of it so far:

NC State -4 v. Syracuse +100 (1 unit)
Syracuse +11.5 @ NC State -110 (1 unit)

Virginia +11.5/14 @ Miami -120 (2 units)
Virginia/Miami Over 43.5 -110 (1.5 units)
cleardot.gif

Texas +14.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (5 units)
Oklahoma -6 v. Texas -115 (3 units)
Toledo/BGSU Over 63/65.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Maryland -3 @ Purdue -111 (1.5 units)
Miss St/Tennessee Over 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ball State/EMU Over 57.5 -111 (1 unit)

Cincinnati +11.5 @ Houston -120 (1 unit)
FSU +28/33.5 @ Clemson -115 (avg) (2 units)
FSU/Clemson Over 60.5 -110 (1 unit)
Iowa State -2.5 @ WVU -110. (1 unit)
Vanderbilt -15 v. UNLV -115 (1 unit)
Kent State/Akron Over 56 -110 (1.5 units)
Wash St/Ariz St Over 58 -110 (1 unit)
MTSU/FAU Over 61.5 -110 (1.5 units)
BYU -4 @ USF -108 (1 unit)
SJSU/Nevada Over 57.5 -111 (1 unit)

Ole Miss +12 @ Missouri -110 (1.5 units)
Fresno State/AFA Over 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
USC +14 @ Notre Dame -110 (1.5 units)
USC/Notre Dame Over 55 -110 (1.5 units)
LSU -6 v. Florida -115 (1 unit)
Wake -6 v. Louisville -110 (1 unit)
Louisville/Wake Over 64 -110 (1 unit)

Hawaii +13.5 @ Boise State -110 (1 unit)
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Why the USC/ND over?
Click to expand...
Pretty fast-paced game, both teams get back some of their best offensive players in Slovis and Armstrong, ND defensive numbers bolstered by playing one of the least impressive offensive resumes. Stylistically, I think both offenses are well built to exploit one another. In retrospect, it prob should have been a 1 unit play for me and not 1.5. I'm a lot more confident in USC +14 than I am over 55, although early market indicators are positive for both.
 
Nebraska/Minnesota Under 52 -114 (1 unit)

This one got steamed a bit before I could post. 51 would be my bottom - 51.5 -120 is available at BOL right now. This is a bit speculative, given the Neb injuries to Martinez and Spielman, but also the probability of wind and some rain/snow.
 
CrimsonK said:
Nebraska/Minnesota Under 52 -114 (1 unit)

This one got steamed a bit before I could post. 51 would be my bottom - 51.5 -120 is available at BOL right now. This is a bit speculative, given the Neb injuries to Martinez and Spielman, but also the probability of wind and some rain/snow.
Click to expand...
Makes sense if this forecast holds. It could be interesting for games in Madison, Champagne etc ...
 
booksbestfriend said:
Are you hearing any rumbling on UVA/Mia? UVA off a bye and the "U" on a day short week. Line moving to the "U" and I just dont get it.
Click to expand...
This prob won't be helpful. Virginia should win by several scores, but I'm almost certain that they lose. I'm just hoping I don't lose my UVA 11.5/14. Part of that pessimism is my career 25% win percentage when I'm 10+ points better than close. This time I just get to be even more pissed off seeing them bring out the stupid chain every quarter.
 
CrimsonK said:
This prob won't be helpful. Virginia should win by several scores, but I'm almost certain that they lose. I'm just hoping I don't lose my UVA 11.5/14. Part of that pessimism is my career 25% win percentage when I'm 10+ points better than close. This time I just get to be even more pissed off seeing them bring out the stupid chain every quarter.
Click to expand...
Oddly enough, this does help. It tells me that there isn’t anything being talked about. Given your connections, silence is everything. Thanks for taking the time to answer.
 
CrimsonK said:
Maryland/Purdue Over 53.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Click to expand...
I tend to agree on this one, despite both Jackson and Sindelar being out. Pigrome gets the start for MD and he is a very capable runner and has actually improved his passing. His mobility could help vs. the Purdue pass rush though they only have 12 sacks to date. I think the big thing here is the Purdue defense (108th SP+) isn't good at stopping the run or pass and MD does have a lot of speed at the skill positions that could provide them problems. MD defense is surprisingly ranked higher in SP than I thought they would be at (32nd) and other than Penn State game which was a complete debacle for their pass coverage have played fairly well though admittedly not against the best schedule. They did hold Syr to only 29/70 on the ground but gave up 330 through the air in a game where Syr was way behind and had to throw exclusively in 2h. The freshman Plummer for Purdue has thrown a lot of checkdown stuff (5.6 ypa) and has 4 int 4td to date. Purdue rushing game though has been non existent only 1.91 ypc to date. I would tend to think Rondale Moore is not going to be ready with the hamstring injury? After looking over this game I am wondering if MD side may be the better way to go?
 
purdue linebacker injuries has left the middle slant pattern open like a crater. Maryland is going to put those linebackers in lots of situations to make the correct read both run and pass options and sideline to sideline. maryland and over are correlated, but both seem like great plays imo
 
EL CAPO said:
purdue linebacker injuries has left the middle slant pattern open like a crater. Maryland is going to put those linebackers in lots of situations to make the correct read both run and pass options and sideline to sideline. maryland and over are correlated, but both seem like great plays imo
Click to expand...
Good analysis
 
Out of curiosity, how did you get NCST -4 and Cuse +11.5 in futures markets? Aren't all those lines pretty standard? What were the dates on those bets? I get they move as people start playing, but I just didn't think there was such a discrepancy in GOY/future lines. Thanks in advance.
 
johnnyhollywood said:
Out of curiosity, how did you get NCST -4 and Cuse +11.5 in futures markets? Aren't all those lines pretty standard? What were the dates on those bets? I get they move as people start playing, but I just didn't think there was such a discrepancy in GOY/future lines. Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...
11.5 was late May. 4 was early September.


That’s not even an extremely volatile one. The difference in the Cinci one I have this week from summer to fall was 18 points. I have Baylor +6 upcoming against wvu and they are now -14 in goy market.
 
Unrelated

Have added another futures game for next week:

Stanford -3.5 v UCLA -118 (1 unit)

Have UCLA +13.5 from summer. Think an appropriate line is -6/6.5
 
Future:

Pitt +1.5 @ Syracuse -110 (2.5 units)

So this now looks like:

Syracuse Pick/+1/+2 v. Pitt -115 avg (3 units)
Pitt +1.5/+4.5 @ Cuse -110 (4 units)

This Cuse offense is a mess with DeVito hurt. No backup on roster thats ACC ready and Pitt top 10 nationally in sacks, DeVito playing really scared and run game can't carry them.
 
CrimsonK said:
Future:

Pitt +1.5 @ Syracuse -110 (2.5 units)

So this now looks like:

Syracuse Pick/+1/+2 v. Pitt -115 avg (3 units)
Pitt +1.5/+4.5 @ Cuse -110 (4 units)

This Cuse offense is a mess with DeVito hurt. No backup on roster thats ACC ready and Pitt top 10 nationally in sacks, DeVito playing really scared and run game can't carry them.
Click to expand...
Good work... Literally setting this up what looks like correctly right during this current game. That's why you are the BITB.
 
I ended up reducing my bet size on UVA/Miami Under 43.5 by going some other way. We will call it 1 unit instead of 1.5 for grading purposes but it's actually less than that.
 
Timh said:
I tend to agree on this one, despite both Jackson and Sindelar being out. Pigrome gets the start for MD and he is a very capable runner and has actually improved his passing. His mobility could help vs. the Purdue pass rush though they only have 12 sacks to date. I think the big thing here is the Purdue defense (108th SP+) isn't good at stopping the run or pass and MD does have a lot of speed at the skill positions that could provide them problems. MD defense is surprisingly ranked higher in SP than I thought they would be at (32nd) and other than Penn State game which was a complete debacle for their pass coverage have played fairly well though admittedly not against the best schedule. They did hold Syr to only 29/70 on the ground but gave up 330 through the air in a game where Syr was way behind and had to throw exclusively in 2h. The freshman Plummer for Purdue has thrown a lot of checkdown stuff (5.6 ypa) and has 4 int 4td to date. Purdue rushing game though has been non existent only 1.91 ypc to date. I would tend to think Rondale Moore is not going to be ready with the hamstring injury? After looking over this game I am wondering if MD side may be the better way to go?
Click to expand...

Great points Tim. On the injury front Moore is still a few weeks IMO from returning. I do expect more success out of Purdue's O as I see Maryland's front to be more similar to Minnesota where Purdue even with Plummer had a lot of success moving the ball in that game. Tario Fuller and Richie Worship should both be back dressed and playing at RB this week to go with the freshman King. I'd expect more success than they've had (but honestly couldn't be worse) and those guys should also help in pass protection as the freshman King has been a mess back there when asked to pick up anything. That being said until I see this defense stop anyone it's hard to envision Maryland not scoring whenever they execute. I like the over the most.... Maryland 34-27
 
PaintCrew said:
Great points Tim. On the injury front Moore is still a few weeks IMO from returning. I do expect more success out of Purdue's O as I see Maryland's front to be more similar to Minnesota where Purdue even with Plummer had a lot of success moving the ball in that game. Tario Fuller and Richie Worship should both be back dressed and playing at RB this week to go with the freshman King. I'd expect more success than they've had (but honestly couldn't be worse) and those guys should also help in pass protection as the freshman King has been a mess back there when asked to pick up anything. That being said until I see this defense stop anyone it's hard to envision Maryland not scoring whenever they execute. I like the over the most.... Maryland 34-27
Click to expand...
Thanks for the heads up on the other backs. I have King in a flex spot for fantasy team I own, but I'll slide him out now with them getting more bodies.
 
Prop:

Ahmari Davis Over 93.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)

RB1 v Col St:

Fontenot 19-125
FCS 9-65
Boyd 20-122
Koback 19-228
Bright 36-179
Washington 22-85

Davis avg 19-91
 
CrimsonK said:
Prop:

Ahmari Davis Over 93.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)

RB1 v Col St:

Fontenot 19-125
FCS 9-65
Boyd 20-122
Koback 19-228
Bright 36-179
Washington 22-85

Davis avg 19-91
Click to expand...
Take away the 9-22 @ ND and he is avg 108.75.

He still got 22 carries despite the big deficit last week.
 
B.A.R. said:
Take away the 9-22 @ ND and he is avg 108.75.

He still got 22 carries despite the big deficit last week.
Click to expand...
He put the tater on the ground a time or two last week. Hoping that doesn’t happen here, good way to get yanked.
 
CrimsonK said:
He put the tater on the ground a time or two last week. Hoping that doesn’t happen here, good way to get yanked.
Click to expand...
Very true...

And going back to the FCS game, they had a pretty nice running attack in a combined effort (for an FCS team in a blowout).

I kinda watched this from afar last week looking at a possible value play in the future...Hopefully he is near 100 by halftime. Good luck tonight and all weekend, as always.
 
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