NCAAF Week 7

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Overall: 141-82 (+78.47 units)

GOY:

NC State +3 @ Pitt -120 (2 units)
Mississippi State -3 v. BYU -120 (2 units)
South Carolina +10.5 v. Tennessee -120 (2 units)
Utah +14 @ USC -110 (1.5 units)
Florida -5.5 v. aTm -120 (1 unit)

Should do well with value on the GOYs. That Miss St game has made me smile thinking about it for past month. Unsure on Huntley's status for Utah but he makes a really big difference. Made the bet with him healthy and would really like it if he can go but I still don't know what's going on there.
 
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KJ said:
LOL money management kinda went out the window yesterday here too

Get em this week CK
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Congrats on the Clones' win!

Only game I'm disappointed in myself on was the 8u. Even though I had 50 years worth of data on my side to support it and I beat the close by two scores, should have maybe been 4u, not 8.
 
Was a helluva day, can really only compare it to the Nebraska win in '92...and a linebacker went 2/3 for 25 yards

But got carried away with the Ducks last night, guess WSU is legit...and I'll fade em next week for better or worse
 
Two huge edges on that academy total and the isu total. Amazing that ou could score just 31 and that game still go over.

Great story on the ISU kid but damn.
 
I had my second largest investment of the day (and my favorite play of the day) on an under 50.5 that resulted in the highest scoring game in fbs history, ck.
 
vk said:
I had my second largest investment of the day (and my favorite play of the day) on an under 50.5 that resulted in the highest scoring game in fbs history, ck.
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Sorry you were on the wrong side of history. You're gonna get some breaks soon. I watched that one and thought I remembered you having the Under. Amazing how betting can take a really fun game and make it no fun in the eye of some beholders. Side note, Drew Anderson is a really nice looking QB for Buffalo.
 
Both teams were snapping a little faster than I thought. Had a brief glimmer of hope late third and early fourth for the win.

There seems to be more inconsistency with pace this year than in past years, not necessarily this one but it seems to be the case to me.
 
Wait you didn't cap a 77 point OT?

Just when I love college OT they have to throw one of those out there where you scratch your head
 
KJ said:
Was a helluva day, can really only compare it to the Nebraska win in '92...and a linebacker went 2/3 for 25 yards

But got carried away with the Ducks last night, guess WSU is legit...and I'll fade em next week for better or worse
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i thought of that same game. neb was coming off two wins over top 15 teams by a combined score of 101 to 14.
 
Tulane -9.5 -105 @ FIU -110 (1 unit)
UNLV +10 @ Air Force -110 (1 unit)
Arizona PICK v. UCLA -110 (1 unit)
Texas +10.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
North Texas +4.5 v. UTSA -110 (1 unit)
Auburn -4 @ LSU -110 (1 unit)
San Diego State -5 v. Boise State -110 (1.5 units)
GT +10.5 @ Miami -110 (2 units)
 
ksimpsc said:
Holy Crap good grab on the GOY of the SCAR line. 10.5 vs 2.5 is a good bit of value!
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Thanks. I can't imagine how good the line value would be if South Carolina was actually as good as I thought they were gonna be.. I'm particularly proud of NC St and Miss St this week (That Miss St GOY is prob one of the best bets I've ever made) and am considering getting out of Florida and Utah (If Huntley is still out) so they are not so good. I did well with USCe this week but won't do well with a +14 against UGA in few weeks. Other than Miss St, I have Oregon -2 in the civil war against Oregon State at end of the season and even with a backup QB I should have 3 scores of value. With Herbert I prob have 4 TD+, which is a nice edge!
 
Texas State/ULL Under 60 -110 (1 unit)
Purdue/Wisconsin Under 54 -110 (2 units)
Ohio/Bowling Green Over 59 -110 (2 units)
Uconn/Temple Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
ECU/UCF Over 70 -110 (1.5 units)
Nevada/Colorado State Over 58/59 -115 (4 units)
New Mexico State/Ga Southern Over 59.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Texas A&M/Florida Under 54.5 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico/Fresno State Over 55 -110 (2 units)
 
Michigan/Indiana Under 48 -110 (1 unit)
TCU/Kansas State Under 56.6 -110 (1.5 units)
Wyoming/Utah State Under 56.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Washington/Arizona State Under 63 -112 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech/Miami Under 54 -110 (2 units)
 
GOY:

NC State +3 @ Pitt -120 (2 units)
Mississippi State -3 v. BYU -120 (2 units)
South Carolina +10.5 v. Tennessee -120 (2 units)
Utah +14 @ USC -110 (1.5 units)
Florida -5.5 v. aTm -120 (1 unit)

GT +10.5 @ Miami -110 (2 units)
San Diego State -5 v. Boise State -110 (1.5 units)
Tulane -9.5 -105 @ FIU -110 (1 unit)
UNLV +10 @ Air Force -110 (1 unit)
Arizona PICK v. UCLA -110 (1 unit)
Texas +10.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
North Texas +4.5 v. UTSA -110 (1 unit)
Auburn -4 @ LSU -110 (1 unit)

Nevada/Colorado State Over 58/59 -115 (4 units)
Purdue/Wisconsin Under 54 -110 (2 units)
Ohio/Bowling Green Over 59 -110 (2 units)
New Mexico/Fresno State Over 55 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech/Miami Under 54 -110 (2 units)
ECU/UCF Over 70 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico State/Ga Southern Over 59.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Texas A&M/Florida Under 54.5 -110 (1.5 units)
TCU/Kansas State Under 56.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Wyoming/Utah State Under 56.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Texas State/ULL Under 60 -110 (1 unit)
Uconn/Temple Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
Michigan/Indiana Under 48 -110 (1 unit)
Washington/Arizona State Under 63 -112 (1 unit)
 
CK - Nice looking card, I missed the Nev/Col St total was the one I really looked at pre release and got home 5 minutes late and value gone, nice grab there.....
 
Thanks, Tim. You've had crummy timing past few weeks on openers, sounds like!

Northern Illinois/Buffalo Over 47.5 -115 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Thanks. I can't imagine how good the line value would be if South Carolina was actually as good as I thought they were gonna be.. I'm particularly proud of NC St and Miss St this week (That Miss St GOY is prob one of the best bets I've ever made) and am considering getting out of Florida and Utah (If Huntley is still out) so they are not so good. I did well with USCe this week but won't do well with a +14 against UGA in few weeks. Other than Miss St, I have Oregon -2 in the civil war against Oregon State at end of the season and even with a backup QB I should have 3 scores of value. With Herbert I prob have 4 TD+, which is a nice edge!
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Just curious, when did you hit that GOY of SCAR +10.5? I was assuming it was after the Kentucky game or preseason.
 
CrimsonK said:
Texas State 3Q TT Over 2.5 +100 (1 unit)
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lol, had to look at the box to locate this winner, but when you are good you are good...


--------------------

If you have a minute, like to know how you came to this play. I didn't see one iota of this game but I always love little goofy bets like this, so getting any perspective is neat.
 
Texas State finally made the change with Willie Jones at QB. I don't have the drive charts easily accessible but it's very clear if you go back and look when he took over they became a much improved offense. I've been waiting for him to get his chance since watching his high school film. They just didn't cash in in the first half. He was stopped in ULL territory on 4d, overthrew a whee route by a yard that would have been 6 and threw a bad INT in end zone. They actually had over 200 yards of offense in the first half with the majority of that coming on the three or four drives with him at QB. If it was 3.5 I would have prob passed but at 2.5 I was intrigued. They've been a terrible 3q offense which I didn't handicap before making the bet but I didn't pay for it here. The market isn't very good at quantifying changes for teams at QB and this was another example. The Illinois/Iowa total last week was another very demonstrative example of that.
 
Crimson, wondering how much of a move you usually need before you put more units on a play or if you usually just let it ride at initial bet size? Made me think of this question when I saw New Mexico and GA Southern current numbers.
 
Reds4 said:
Crimson, wondering how much of a move you usually need before you put more units on a play or if you usually just let it ride at initial bet size? Made me think of this question when I saw New Mexico and GA Southern current numbers.
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Good question.

I don't necessarily have a set variance that I use between my line and what the market has. It also depends on key numbers for me. On that particular bet, It would definitely be nice to have that 57.5 and not 59.5 but it's not a large enough variance in what I think the number should be and what it is for me to add more. I also have a bet I didn't post on New Mexico State that had already gone past 7 and it was the next day before I realized it so I didn't really feel comfortable posting that over 24 hours after taking it when it had crossed 7. So anyway, I'm already pretty tied to there being points scored in this game and unless it gets down to 55 I'll prob just leave it alone. New Mexico/Fresno is already a bigger bet but it's hovering around an area where I'd consider adding even more if we get some more downward movement.
 
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