NCAAF Week 6

[CrimsonK]

Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Overall: 132-92 (+31.87 units)

Games already played in futures markets:

ECU +8.5 v. Temple -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +6 v. UCF -120 (1 unit)
UCF -3 @ Cincinnati -125 (1 unit)
Miami -3/4 v. VT -110 (3.5 units)
VT +11 @ Miami -110 (1 unit)
Florida -3 v. Auburn -110 (1 unit)
Auburn +8 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)
Michigan State +17 @ Ohio State -110 (1 unit)

 

[booksbestfriend]

Must have been a volatile futures market. Hope you double up on some of those splits.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Go get em CK

 

[CrimsonK]

PSA: ECU is going to open higher than what I took. I would no longer endorse a play on them.

 

[AliShaheed]

What's your current number on Auburn/FL?

 

[whatsthespread?]

Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Overall: 132-92 (+31.87 units)

Games already played in futures markets:

ECU +8.5 v. Temple -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +6 v. UCF -120 (1 unit)
UCF -3 @ Cincinnati -125 (1 unit)
Miami -3/4 v. VT -110 (3.5 units)
VT +11 @ Miami -110 (1 unit)
Florida -3 v. Auburn -110 (1 unit)
Auburn +8 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)
Michigan State +17 @ Ohio State -110 (1 unit)

Some big moves already. Good luck with your middles!

 

[twinkie13]

What's your current number on Auburn/FL?

Same. You still like that bet? Aubbie smoke and mirrors?

 

[CrimsonK]

What's your current number on Auburn/FL?

Working on it now. My +8 will be better than my -3.

 

[RetroVK]

Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Overall: 132-92 (+31.87 units)

Games already played in futures markets:

ECU +8.5 v. Temple -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +6 v. UCF -120 (1 unit)
UCF -3 @ Cincinnati -125 (1 unit)
Miami -3/4 v. VT -110 (3.5 units)
VT +11 @ Miami -110 (1 unit)
Florida -3 v. Auburn -110 (1 unit)
Auburn +8 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)
Michigan State +17 @ Ohio State -110 (1 unit)

Fine. I will do this next year. Wondering if you still have my number form a decade ago. I would like to discuss your methodology on this if you would. I have been watching enough the last couple of years to figure out some of it .... the main thing that it appears to me looking from the outside in ...

1. You look at the future GOY line. Then you look at the upcoming schedule leading into the game and likely outcomes of those events. Then you determine how the likely results will impact the line (perception or reality) and bet accordingly, thus creating middle opportunities,

Anyway, I think I would like to learn your methods if you are willing to share them with me sometime.

 

[JohnnyGambler]

How about sharing them with all of us. The way you abuse the future lines market is nuts.

 

[askias]

I’d be interested in your current thoughts on Miami and VT. Where would you play it now. Thanks!

 

[CrimsonK]

Fine. I will do this next year. Wondering if you still have my number form a decade ago. I would like to discuss your methodology on this if you would. I have been watching enough the last couple of years to figure out some of it .... the main thing that it appears to me looking from the outside in ...

1. You look at the future GOY line. Then you look at the upcoming schedule leading into the game and likely outcomes of those events. Then you determine how the likely results will impact the line (perception or reality) and bet accordingly, thus creating middle opportunities,

Anyway, I think I would like to learn your methods if you are willing to share them with me sometime.

I think I still have your number. I’ll look and text you, if so. You are right about much.

 

[CrimsonK]

Ball State +7.5 @ NIU -115 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State -7 @ Texas Tech -120 (1 unit)
Iowa State -3 v. TCU -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss -6.5 v Vanderbilt -115 (1 unit)
Michigan State +21.5 @ Ohio State -105 (1 unit)

 

[whatsthespread?]

So do you see value on available Sides of your middle/futures? UCF -3.5, VA Tech +13, or Florida -2.5. Thank you

 

[CrimsonK]

So do you see value on available Sides of your middle/futures? UCF -3.5, VA Tech +13, or Florida -2.5. Thank you

I haven’t done enough work yet to fully comment, but yes on the UCF and Florida sides

 

[CrimsonK]

Temple/ECU Under 49.5 -110 (1 unit)
UCF -3.5 @ Cincinnati -110 (1 unit)
USF/UConn Over 51.5 -105 (1 unit)
Purdue/Penn State Over 54 -113 (1 unit)
Ball State/NIU Over 54 -110 (2 units)
Tulane -2.5 @ Army -108 (1 unit)
Pitt/Duke Over 48 -110 (1 unit)
Kent State/Wisconsin Over 56.5 -123 (1 unit)
EMU/ CMU Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
Troy/Missouri Over 63/65.5 -110 (3 units)
Oregon State +8.5 @ UCLA -110 (1.5 units)
Northwestern/Nebraska Over 49.5/52 -110 (1.5 units)
Vanderbilt/Ole Miss Over 58 -110 (1.5 units)
Arkansas State/Georgia State Over 66.5 -115 (1 unit)
Utah State/LSU Over 68 -115 (1 unit)
Boise State/UNLV Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)

 

[HUNT]

Killing it...keep it moving...rippin n runnin.

 

[Dave]

Michigan St not going to score more than 10 points.. no way they hold them

 

[B.A.R.]

Michigan St not going to score more than 10 points.. no way they hold them

What is your prediction for the game in full?

I know you had some good thoughts on Sparty last fall.

 

[UTSUX]

Michigan St not going to score more than 10 points.. no way they hold them

I liked MSt at first look,but very worried about them scoring.

 

[B.A.R.]

Very good reads on the tweeter...

Character limit sucks though

Should be a good week for ya :shake:

 

[booksbestfriend]

Very good reads on the tweeter...

Character limit sucks though

Should be a good week for ya :shake:

Agreed. Has become one of my favorite weekly reads. Good analysis CK.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Isn't Dantonio crazy good as a DD road dog? Or am I pulling this out of nowhere?

 

[s--k]

Isn't Dantonio crazy good as a DD road dog? Or am I pulling this out of nowhere?

Thinking back to the last couple, there was rain at Michigan 2017 (+10.5) and Ohio State 2015 (+14) that hurt the favorites and helped Sparty. But also looking back I see the 2017 result...Ohio State won 48-3 in Columbus vs MSU who was +17 and 7-2 entering.

 

[Vasherized]

What’s your twitter handle @CrimsonK?

 

[Falco_7]

What’s your twitter handle @CrimsonK?

FranchiseKF

 

[CrimsonK]

Michigan St not going to score more than 10 points.. no way they hold them

That's definitely in the range of possibilities. OSU hasn't been tested yet, so we will learn a lot about them this week. Sparty has thrown the ball well enough that I feel good about their chance to hang, in a variety of ways that the game could play out.

 

[CrimsonK]

Isn't Dantonio crazy good as a DD road dog? Or am I pulling this out of nowhere?

I'm not sure, I don't keep records of stuff like that. I look at it more big picture, and Sparty is the type of team that I've had a lot of success backing in past as a middle/big dog. When i can get three scores in a game totaled in the 40's, I'll take a hard look, just about every time.

 

[CrimsonK]

Illinois/Minnesota Over 56 -108 (1 unit)

 

[CrimsonK]

Adding to this:

USF/UConn Over 49 -107 (1 unit)

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Illinois/Minnesota Over 56 -108 (1 unit)

Illinois +14 thoughts? Minny has played a ton of close games. Have they decided to open up the offense?

 

[CrimsonK]

Temple/ECU Over 23 2H -120 (1 unit)

 

[CrimsonK]

Prop:

Ahmari Davis Over 81.5 rush yards -120 (1 unit)

 

[CrimsonK]

Illinois +14 thoughts? Minny has played a ton of close games. Have they decided to open up the offense?

I would lean Illy's way. Side and total likely all rest with whether or not Peters can elevate his game in B1G play.

 

[CrimsonK]

Weather related, played both overs early in week. Been watching forecast for couple days, been consistent.

Kent State/Wisconsin Under 58.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ball State/NIU Under 54 -110 (1 unit)

 

[D-Woww]

I know its late in the week to ask this but can u give me ur thoughts o the Tulane play? Was about to fire on Army but always hesitate when I see someone like you on the other side

 

[CrimsonK]

I know its late in the week to ask this but can u give me ur thoughts o the Tulane play? Was about to fire on Army but always hesitate when I see someone like you on the other side

Tulane really good against option. They should shut army down. Key will be how tulane utilizes their speed advantages against a slow army secondary. I think with Tulane's experience in seeing a traditional option, which they did in practice for years, and their balance, they are too much for army to handle.

 

[CrimsonK]

SDSU/Col St Over 48.5 -108 (1 unit)

 

[CrimsonK]

Sam James Over 59.5 rec -120
Brevin Jordan Over 3.5 rec -140
Collin Johnson Under 61.5 rec yards -120

 

[Vasherized]

They may hold out Johnson for OU. Still has a tight hammy. My site doesn’t offer props but would keep riding the Duv over in receptions.

I would prefer to see Marcus Washington, Kennedy Lewis or Jordan Pouncey taking some reps from Epps who is trapped in Tweener land between TE and WR. But Eagles, Johnson, Smith and Duv is a solid quartet of options for Ehlinger and Brewer is having a nice comeback season at TE.

 

[CrimsonK]

Jauan Jennings Over 4 rec -120

 

[twinkie13]

Tulane really good against option. They should shut army down. Key will be how tulane utilizes their speed advantages against a slow army secondary. I think with Tulane's experience in seeing a traditional option, which they did in practice for years, and their balance, they are too much for army to handle.

Spot on