NCAAF Week 5

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Overall: 113-77 (+30.59 units)

Games played in futures market:

Navy +13.5 @ Memphis -120 (1 unit)
Duke +7 @ Virginia Tech -110 (1 unit)
Cal -2.5 v. Arizona State -110 (1.5 units)
Virginia +16.5 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)
Texas Tech +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (2 units)
Washington -5.5 v. USC -110 (1 unit)
USC +11.5 @ Washington -110 (2 units)
 
Love it...thanks for you efforts CK...seeing week 5 stuff already is like a treat to me...making my lines this morning
 
CrimsonK said:
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Overall: 113-77 (+30.59 units)

Games played in futures market:

Navy +13.5 @ Memphis -120 (1 unit)
Duke +7 @ Virginia Tech -110 (1 unit)
Cal -2.5 v. Arizona State -110 (1.5 units)
Virginia +16.5 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)
Texas Tech +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (2 units)
Washington -5.5 v. USC -110 (1 unit)
USC +11.5 @ Washington -110 (2 units)
Click to expand...
Thank you for the very professional way you post. I am in Vegas so use Circa now. Which book do you recommend for Futures? Also curious if your proxy ran into issues with Circa capping bet limits? I won big my first week with them for college and pro football but then my bets were capped at 550 the next week. No response from their customer service so wondering how your interactions have been. Thanks for any direction and good luck!
 
SJSU +21 @ Air Force -110 (2 units)
Wake -3/4 @ Boston College -112 avg (2 units)
SMU -6 @ South Florida -115 (1 unit)
Iowa State PICK @ Baylor -110 (1.5 units)
Virginia +11.5 @ Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina +17.5 @ App State -110 (1.5 units)
 
whatsthespread? said:
Thank you for the very professional way you post. I am in Vegas so use Circa now. Which book do you recommend for Futures? Also curious if your proxy ran into issues with Circa capping bet limits? I won big my first week with them for college and pro football but then my bets were capped at 550 the next week. No response from their customer service so wondering how your interactions have been. Thanks for any direction and good luck!
Click to expand...
I only bet openers with them in week three. We were able to get down 1K and 2K per. Our group lost about 5K so I don’t know why they would limit that guys action lol. I haven’t chosen to bet with them the past two weeks so my sample of interaction with them is too small to comment. Hope you get it sorted out

Futures I try to have an account with every offshore shop possible, and Fanduel in Jersey this year has been great. Believe Westgate in Vegas carries them. My pal took duke +8.5 with them last week while I only had access to 6.5/7
 
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CrimsonK said:
IFutures I try to have an account with every offshore shop possible, and Fanduel in Jersey this year has been great. Believe Westgate in Vegas carries them. My pal took duke +8.5 with them last week while I only had access to 6.5/7
Click to expand...

I haven't seen any of the GOY listed since the season started at my various offshores. Have you been playing those lately with NJ books like Fanduel?
 
CrimsonK said:
I only bet openers with them in week three. We were able to get down 1K and 2K per. Our group lost about 5K so I don’t know why they would limit that guys action lol. I haven’t chosen to bet with them the past two weeks so my sample of interaction with them is too small to comment. Hope you get it sorted out

Futures I try to have an account with every offshore shop possible, and Fanduel in Jersey this year has been great. Believe Westgate in Vegas carries them. My pal took duke +8.5 with them last week while I only had access to 6.5/7
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Thank you. Need to build the bankroll before other books. Sure you can help with that. Have a great evening!
 
jmm102 said:
I haven't seen any of the GOY listed since the season started at my various offshores. Have you been playing those lately with NJ books like Fanduel?
Click to expand...
Some from there recently, yes. 5d, Bet USA, Sportsbook have been posting GOYs updated every week. BOL was carrying them for a bit as well, but havent seen them thee in past week or two.
 
Was really odd watching SJSU against Arkansas because to my eye .... the score wasn't a fluke ... it looked like they outplayed them. AFA is a different beast but that is a hell of a spread for a team with some confidence and look to be playing for eachother and the coach.

First one to 20 wins the Cal game ?? Did you make a total for that one cause I am in the low thirties which seems impossible for a college football game.

If the Boston College that showed up the first bunch of weeks (the way VT has played isn't exactly flattering BC's win there either) shows up against Wake, they get rolled.

Can I get your take on the UAB game when or if you get a chance ck?
 
Timh said:
Circa open Cal total at 40.
Click to expand...

Yes I will be betting under. What did you make that total Timh, if I can ask? I made it 34 which is just an insane low number for a college football game but one I feel pretty good about so I am wondering if I am just way off base here or what, hence asking ck and now you.
 
RetroVK said:
Yes I will be betting under. What did you make that total Timh, if I can ask? I made it 34 which is just an insane low number for a college football game but one I feel pretty good about so I am wondering if I am just way off base here or what, hence asking ck and now you.
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I like to look at the Team Rankings data for points/play data etc. and took a look at this one based on YTD data.

1569251058316.png

ASU running game has not been very good at all, and Cal has been good at pressuring 17 sacks and their pass D very good only allowing 5.8 ypa. Cal maybe a little better running the ball but ASU has been stout against the run only 3.0/carry. I'm not impressed with Cal aerial game either only 213/ypg. I agree this one has the makings of an under and both teams have done a good job not turning the ball over.
 
SJSU +21 @ Air Force -110 (2 units)
Wake -3/4 @ Boston College -112 avg (2 units)
SMU -6 @ South Florida -115 (1 unit)
Iowa State PICK @ Baylor -110 (1.5 units)
Virginia +11.5 @ Notre Dame -115 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina +17.5 @ App State -110 (1.5 units)
Troy -4.5 v Arkansas State -110 (2 units)
FSU -4.5 v NC State -110 (1.5 units)
MTSU +24 @ Iowa -110 (1 unit)

Duke/VT Over 52 -110 (1.5 units)
Wake/BC Over 66 -110 (2.5 units)
Kentucky/South Carolina Under 51.5 -105 (1 unit)
NIU/Vandy Under 55 -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech/Oklahoma Under 73.5 -110 (1 unit)
FAU/Charlotte Over 63.5 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico/Liberty Over 68.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas State/Troy Over 55.5 -110 (2 units)
Ohio State/Nebraska Over 66.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas/Texas AM Over 55 -110 (1 unit)
 
RetroVK said:
Was really odd watching SJSU against Arkansas because to my eye .... the score wasn't a fluke ... it looked like they outplayed them. AFA is a different beast but that is a hell of a spread for a team with some confidence and look to be playing for eachother and the coach.

First one to 20 wins the Cal game ?? Did you make a total for that one cause I am in the low thirties which seems impossible for a college football game.

If the Boston College that showed up the first bunch of weeks (the way VT has played isn't exactly flattering BC's win there either) shows up against Wake, they get rolled.

Can I get your take on the UAB game when or if you get a chance ck?
Click to expand...
Ya, this is same spread as they were at Arky last week. So now AFA = low level SEC. Nope! Matchups favorable for SJSU as well. Option uncertainty keeps this from being my biggest side bet of the season.

I made Cal -3.5/43.5

If Wake plays their A game and BC plays theirs too, Wake wins by a couple TDs. Was a bad side and total, IMO. But I make these same bets every week.

I have eight games left to do. UAB on that list. Will share tomorrow.

Hope you have a great week!
 
Also another future game played:

Oklahoma -6 v. Texas -115 avg (3 units)

So that makes 5u on Texas +14.5 and 3u on OU -6. Decent chance to win both. The reason I decided to lock in heavy the other way is that Texas is going to be hosting open tryouts for DBs. I would still independently play 2u on Texas +14.5 now if given the chance, so that's how I'm looking at handling my risk here. Just trying to do my best to adapt to new info, as is vital with my style.

This is following the Ok St game, update today:

Texas coach Tom Herman says Caden Sterns will be out 4 weeks. CB Josh Thompson (broken foot) will be out "significant time." Jalen Green (shoulder) will also be out 4 weeks.
 
CrimsonK said:
Also another future game played:

Oklahoma -6 v. Texas -115 avg (3 units)

So that makes 5u on Texas +14.5 and 3u on OU -6. Decent chance to win both. The reason I decided to lock in heavy the other way is that Texas is going to be hosting open tryouts for DBs. I would still independently play 2u on Texas +14.5 now if given the chance, so that's how I'm looking at handling my risk here. Just trying to do my best to adapt to new info, as is vital with my style.

This is following the Ok St game, update today:

Texas coach Tom Herman says Caden Sterns will be out 4 weeks. CB Josh Thompson (broken foot) will be out "significant time." Jalen Green (shoulder) will also be out 4 weeks.
Click to expand...
7-14 points OU win would be no surprise. I love middles, so obviously this is sexy as can be.
 
CrimsonK said:
Also another future game played:

Oklahoma -6 v. Texas -115 avg (3 units)

So that makes 5u on Texas +14.5 and 3u on OU -6. Decent chance to win both. The reason I decided to lock in heavy the other way is that Texas is going to be hosting open tryouts for DBs. I would still independently play 2u on Texas +14.5 now if given the chance, so that's how I'm looking at handling my risk here. Just trying to do my best to adapt to new info, as is vital with my style.

This is following the Ok St game, update today:

Texas coach Tom Herman says Caden Sterns will be out 4 weeks. CB Josh Thompson (broken foot) will be out "significant time." Jalen Green (shoulder) will also be out 4 weeks.
Click to expand...

Sterns was / is the big injury. Good chance we get B.J. Foster (hamstring) and DeMarvion Overshown (back) for the West Virginia game. Secondary is the deepest unit on the team but it's been hit hard obviously, especially with the knowledge that you need all hands on deck middle of October in Dallas. That's already not going to be the case.
 
Future game:

Florida -3 v. Auburn -110 (1 unit)

Think it's a tight game and this shores up -3 and +8 positions.
 
Caught up on USC post practice last night, I anticipated Fink at QB this week, but appears that likelihood is growing by the minute. Very good news for the under, but enough to get off the USC side.

Washington -9.5 v USC -110 (1 unit)

So leaves me with wash -5.5/9.5 and usc +11.5 with 2u on both sides and 1.5u on Under 59.5. Interesting nugget, USC OC Graham Harrell is a Leach disciple. Leach’s scoring output in Apple cup since coach Pete’s arrival: 13, 10, 17, 14, 15 points. I’m not a Fink fan. They are looking at walk ons and a starting WR to fill in as QB2, if something were to happen to Fink this week or during game. Not good.
 
on texas tech/oklahoma under. is that a play on oklahoma's d being improved or texas tech offense being worse ? i'm trying to figure out how tech could only score 14 on arizona. Tech seemingly has all the pieces back but something seems off ?
 
EL CAPO said:
on texas tech/oklahoma under. is that a play on oklahoma's d being improved or texas tech offense being worse ? i'm trying to figure out how tech could only score 14 on arizona. Tech seemingly has all the pieces back but something seems off ?
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Their QB got hurt during the game and is now out for several weeks. A friend of mine cautioned me against the Texas Tech play as the TT passing game was quite uninspiring against UTEP and that was possibly foreboding. He was right. Now they will start a combo of Jackson Tyner, a terrible QB that transfered from Rice, or Jett Duffey, a dynamic runner that hasn't fulfilled his potential and is likely ill-equipped to run this offense effectively. Oklahoma is moving at a snail's pace this year. The reason being that their offense is so good against these scrubs they've played, that they can score whenever they have the ball. Going slow is a savvy move that protects the defense, which is better, but still really bad, so they don't have to face as many plays. Texas Tech normally likes to go very fast, but with their current QBs and facing the similar predicament that Oklahoma was faced with, it makes sense not to, and to try to protect the defense, which is currently pretty far ahead of their under-manned offense. It's not gonna be a fun game to watch with an under ticket, but I think the slow Ok play and the terrible QB options that TT has makes sense to do it.
 
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AliShaheed said:
Any thoughts on side?

Thanks
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I had sorta forgotten this angle until I took the L on it last week, but Utah has seemingly tended to struggle more with these air raid type teams. They got not issue with the BYUs of the world that try to play power with them, but isolate the corners time and again, and you can see arm punt fink carve them up. Harrell was a Leach disciple, so imagine Leach sees a lot to be excited about. Utah will clearly make changes, and perhaps they can get way with playing more man because Pittman is a beast and wash st doesn’t have a dude like him, but I would have a hard time backing Utah here. I think the Over is the best way to play it, really due to Leach success. 49, 28, 33, 28 last four against Utes. I haven’t fact checked this but I imagine that is the highest average and low number that any team has managed against Witts Utes. I think this Wash St offense is better than all of those others too. I don’t have interest in the side really, but I am glad the Under took money all week. Kinda similar to last weeks wash st game getting bet down to 55.5, I didn’t get it. 130 points later...
 
Heads up on Ark St/Troy. Ark st QB OFY. I was aware when I bet against them and also when I went over. The total is likely to steam back down some soon, may be a nice spot to still go over if you haven’t already. I made the total 2 TD higher than open with a healthy Bonner. I don’t know exactly how to quantify the loss, but not 14 points worth. Just wanted to share that as the injury status just hit twitter
 
Thanks for your insight into these games, you save me a lot of time when I'm thinking about pulling the trigger or not.

Best of luck this weekend...

:shake:
 
Getting off this one. Weather forecasts appear consistent in the PNW.

Washington State/Utah Under 57 -110 (1 unit)

Also, adding second weather-related:

Colorado State/Utah State Under 70.5 -115 ( 1unit)
 
RetroVK said:
UAB WKY YO
Click to expand...
Full disclosure, I spent very little time on this game:

One of the main things I've noticed with UAB this year is how much they've been hurt by losing all those seniors on the OL. They can't run block worth a lick so far. Good news is Johnston is a way better passer than what they've had in the past, and has the ability to create with legs, so helps mask some OL issues. UAB offensive output has been solid, but not sure many teams have played a worse schedule than them, to date. So their raw and adjusted numbers are outta whack on both sides. Rush defense has been strength so far, but WKU run game is about as bad as it gets. Not sure what to think of their passing game without Duncan, so that a major ? for me. WKU pass defense has been their strength so far, which is where you wanna be best against this version of UAB. Maybe UAB can move WKu off ball some on the ground game. I think UAB is the better team. Better offense, better defense, a better coach, they know how to win, but I don't know if I think they are worthy of being a big favorite. I made it +5.5/47.5. I hadnt done the game yet when UAB opened -1, if I had, I would have bet them. It's currently -3 with some juice and total is where I think it should be, so I prob won't get involved. If WKU took some money then I would consider UAB, but not a game I care too much for.
 
CrimsonK said:
Important to look at game independet of years past. These are two Big 12 offense, so as a result, you get more Big 12 results on defense as well.
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Absolutely agree. I had a convo about this the other night. You simply have to forget the entire history of this series really.
 
Some info on AF from the local press;

" Donald Hammond III didn't practice until Tuesday, taking Saturday through Monday off to rest a right ankle injury. The assumption is that if Hammond is healthy, he plays. But given that Isaiah Sanders is available as a backup option and likely provides the Falcons (favored by 19) more than enough firepower to win and with Navy looming next week, expect a quick hook for Hammond if he doesn't appear 100%-particularly if Air Force builds an early lead. If the Falcons can handle San Jose State without their No. 1 quarterback, it might be better served giving him as much time as possible to be at his best for the Midshipmen."

:shake:
 
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