NCAAF Week 5

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Overall: 103-56 (+77.50 units)

GOY:

Colorado +7 @ UCLA -110 (1.5 units)
Ole Miss +25 @ Bama -120 (1 unit)
GT -3 v. UNC -115 (1 unit)
UGA +1 @ Tennessee -110 (1 unit)
Kansas State -5 v. Baylor -110 (1 unit)

Should have pretty nice value on all except for Ole Miss. I'm not sure where that one opens. I hope AJ Brown is healthy, the OM offense really relies on him working out of the slot.
 
You are killin it man, fantastic work, hope you keep bringing in the profit in the weeks ahead as you are definitely the model of consistency my man!
 
En Fuego.

I will have to rethink sinking money into GOY given the value you are getting with those, particularly if you can find a team that the books were just wrong about like UCLA.
 
Fresno State -9 v. Nevada -110 (1 unit)

That will do it for now.

Sincere thanks everyone for the kind words, hope everybody has a great week!
 
I am new around here but I can't say enough how impressed I am with your knowledge CrimsonK. Keep up the absolutely outstanding work.
 
CrimsonK said:
Those are BOL
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so weird. I was sitting there refreshing when you and another poster started posting your early plays - but the NCAA option hadn't shown up on my screen yet. Showed my balances but somehow I must not have been logged in. I don't think BOL staggers anything.
 
lvmike32 said:
so weird. I was sitting there refreshing when you and another poster started posting your early plays - but the NCAA option hadn't shown up on my screen yet. Showed my balances but somehow I must not have been logged in. I don't think BOL staggers anything.
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It will do that with me sometimes also, I know exactly what you are talking about. Hopefully you found them before too long!

Added: FSU -7 @ Wake -115 (1.5 units)

2.5 units total at 7/7.5
 
vk said:
Jackson probably a no go for Buffalo for what it is worth. May not matter against that opponent.
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Thank ya sir. I watched the FAU/Buffalo game on my computer while TV had another game on so I wasn't watching very closely. I must have missed the Jackson injury during the game because I found myself squinting a bit looking at the game and saying to myself, "huh, Jackson looks lighter skinned than I remember and man he has really improved his accuracy as a passer." I then realized it was Anderson. All of that to say, I like Jackson, but Anderson looks to be a more polished passer and they are getting enough out of traditional run game that I don't see it as a disadvantage. I think Kent State is lost on offense and just don't see them being able to score much.
 
CrimsonK said:
It will do that with me sometimes also, I know exactly what you are talking about. Hopefully you found them before too long!

Added: FSU -7 @ Wake -115 (1.5 units)

2.5 units total at 7/7.5
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snagged a few good ones like BYU -2.5 and GA -3.5. Note to myself - tail you next year on GOY - that's some really good capping 6 months before season starts. I gotta get that book that had Coastal Carolina +31 too. LOL. Did they honor that bet? I would have thought they would cancel as an obvious error. thanks again
 
USF/ECU Over 69 -110 (2 units)
Ball State/Western Michigan Under 62 -110 (2 units)
North Texas/Southern Miss Over 59 -110 (2 units)
Miami Ohio/Notre Dame Under 56 (1.5 units)
MTSU/FAU Over 51 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico State/Arkansas Over 60 -110 (1 unit)
Troy/LSU Over 46.5 -110 (1 unit)
Air Force/New Mexico Under 52 -118 (1 unit)
Arizona State/Stanford Under 67.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado state/Hawaii Over 63.5 -110 (1 unit)
 
lvmike32 said:
snagged a few good ones like BYU -2.5 and GA -3.5. Note to myself - tail you next year on GOY - that's some really good capping 6 months before season starts. I gotta get that book that had Coastal Carolina +31 too. LOL. Did they honor that bet? I would have thought they would cancel as an obvious error. thanks again
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haha, ya they did but it was kind of a unique scenario. I have an out with a local that will mirror stuff for me so long story short it was honored. Thanks for the kind words, hope you have a winning week.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Looks like you have a nice middle opportunity on UNC/GT game. Thoughts on what your high number is on GT.
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I think that the line is pretty close to appropriate now. If you look at the numbers from last week's Duke/UNC game these teams appear to be pretty similar. It really shouldn't have been a close game. Duke drove the ball really consistently on UNC but their red zone woes continued. At one point they had 5 trips into UNC RZ (I think) and only 13 points. The UNC run game appeared decent in box score but it all stemmed from one Surratt long scramble. Duke continued to dominate against run. There were a few nice 50/50 balls that UNC won and once Proehl got behind defense but the UNC offense really didn't do much. I think they are still trying to figure out who they are. GT on the other hand won rather convincingly last week but it should/could have been way worse than just 18 points. Pitt had a ridiculous return for a TD and GT was just so sloppy with the football but they really put a pounding on Pitt. The defense played well again as they have all season. They really dominated UT in the opener as well for the majority of the game but then that whole things just kinda unraveled late. UNC has beat GT three straight but that was mainly a function of their offense just taking advantage of poor GT defenses. GT defense is really good this year and UNC offense is way down, plus UNC has new defensive coordinator and I'm rarely optimistic about a coordinator's ability to stop the option in their first attempt. GT is a much better football team than UNC but GT has also shown ability in past to lose dumb games. Hopefully that dumb game already happened against Vols in opener.
 
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. -- North Carolina's injury list keeps growing.

Senior receiver Austin Proehl, senior defensive tackle Tyler Powell and redshirt freshman receiver Rontavius Groves were hurt during Saturday's loss to Duke.

Proehl had his left arm in a sling on the sideline. Powell crumpled to the turf grabbing his right knee before being helped to the sideline. And Groves' right leg gave out as he turned for a pass in his college debut, prompting trainers to immediately put his knee in a brace and cart him away.

None appear on the depth chart for this weekend's trip to Georgia Tech.

Nine of 19 players on UNC's pre-Duke injury report are lost for the season. Asked Monday whether UNC has more season-ending injuries, coach Larry Fedora said: "I don't know yet."
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With the way more and more injuries are starting to mount it's feeling like there is still some value on GT, sub-10.
 
GOY:

Week 6:
Michigan State +17.5 @ Michigan (1 unit)

Week 8:
Penn State -4 v. Michigan -110 (2 units)

Week 13:

FSU -3.5 @ Florida -110 (1.5 units)
 
Couple more GOY:

Week 8:

Houston -3 v. Memphis -110 (1.5 units)

Week 10:

NC State +9.5 v. Clemson -110 (1.5 units)
 
This is a more concise list of what I've got. Lot of massive total movement going on now but I agree with all of it so won't be adding anything there but if I get a big move on a few that I don't agree with I could add some more:

GOY:

Colorado +7 @ UCLA -110 (1.5 units)
Ole Miss +25 @ Bama -120 (1 unit)
GT -3 v. UNC -115 (1 unit)
UGA +1 @ Tennessee -110 (1 unit)
Kansas State -5 v. Baylor -110 (1 unit)

FSU -7/7.5 @ Wake -110 (2.5 units)
Buffalo -3 @ Kent State -115 (1.5 units)
Vanderbilt +12 @ Florida -110 (1 unit)
Mississippi State +10.5 @ Auburn -110 (1 unit)
Fresno State -9 v. Nevada -110 (1 unit)
Akron +1 @ Bowling Green -110 (1 unit)

USF/ECU Over 69 -110 (2 units)
Ball State/Western Michigan Under 62 -110 (2 units)
North Texas/Southern Miss Over 59 -110 (2 units)
Miami Ohio/Notre Dame Under 56 -110 (1.5 units)
MTSU/FAU Over 51 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico State/Arkansas Over 60 -110 (1 unit)
Troy/LSU Over 46.5 -110 (1 unit)
Air Force/New Mexico Under 52 -118 (1 unit)
Arizona State/Stanford Under 67.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado State/Hawaii Over 63.5 -110 (1 unit)
Murray State/Louisville under 66/66.5 -120 (1 unit)
 
Curious what you might be able to share on Fresno St? I don't know much about them and would like to learn a bit to maybe apply this week or beyond. Thanks!
 
s--k said:
Curious what you might be able to share on Fresno St? I don't know much about them and would like to learn a bit to maybe apply this week or beyond. Thanks!
Click to expand...
Sure.

Nevada is a mess. You may have followed along with their QB carousel but it's been handled really poorly. Believe this is Norvell's first HC gig and that would make sense with way this has been mismanaged. The Bama QB transfer, David Cornwell, actually just quit today. Ty Gangi was announced as starter early this week after falling out of favor after first two games against Northwestern and Toledo. They were overmatched in both but he was poor in both as well. Gangi looks like their best option but there is a good bit of pressure placed upon the QB in this system in order for it to run as intended. When I bet the open, Gangi hadn't been named starter. As a Fresno backer, I didn't like to see that. It was the first wise decision I feel they've made - both to go with him and to get him QB1 reps all week. That being said, I'm not ready to buy their offense, particularly the pass game. Fresno just defended the run really well against Washington (3.1 ypc) and that's how I think Nevada is going to be forced to beat them and I just don't know if they can. Fresno has some uncertainty at their QB spot but I think they have two better options and their coach hasn't mismanaged it from a macro-perspective. I like the Fresno offense - I think they are pretty dynamic at WR. They've had some tough competition the past two playing two of the best defenses in CFB in Bama and Washington so there was the bye week last week and now they get major relief with a Nevada pass defense that hasn't been good, albeit against two top pass offense in Toledo and Washington State. I'm a Bama fan so I get to see that team roll up a cupcake or three every year and I can say after watching that game that Fresno has some talent. I think they are a team that believes they can go from a miserable 2016 to potentially making a bowl this year - though I think they will likely fall just short. I don't know if Nevada hasn't quit. We have seen teams like Arkansas State and others get beat up early against bigger teams and finish great down home stretch and win conference but I think the Nevada experiment has failed miserably, and I was buying them this off-season. I don't love this bet, laying 9 with a not very good team isn't something I've done much of in my life but here we are. I don't think I have a huge edge on the game, I'm really gambling here more than I'd like. This game and the Miss St side I have cooled on this week. Just think Fresno is a team on the rise and Nevada isn't and like the matchup for Fresno.
 
Thank you very much, appreciate it.

I caught bits and pieces of the Nev-NW week 1, seemed like NW was moving it on them pretty well, but not cashing it in for pts, while Nev made the most of their chances. Saw nothing of the Toledo game, but watched some of their game vs Idaho State. Nevada D did not impress at all, they had some bad angles, were giving up easy receptions and looked slower than the Idaho St O (not a good sign)...and that was the game they started the frosh QB, who I thought looked good athletically, but didn't appear ready to run an offense, guess they found that out last week live vs Wazzou, didn't watch any of that game.

With Gangi back, appearing to be their better option and having seen them do some things vs Northwestern figured maybe I'd take a shot with them vs another bad team, Fresno, but maybe Fresno is, well, less bad or atleast has some near future potential, while Nevada may be a bit off of that coming through.

Your insight helps. I do like the fact that Fresno goes into their bye week after playing two of the very best teams in the country, they definitely know where their most glaring weakness areas are to work on, more beneficial for them than going into a bye off of cupcake games and not being tested, they will likely enjoy facing the Nevada defense and going up against a Nev O that isn't a mismatch for them!

Thanks again!
 
Next SEC Coach Fired (resigning, retiring or firing count)

Kevin Sumlin +200 (1 unit)
Butch Jones +150 (1 unit)
 
Props:

Ole Miss/Bama

DK Metcalf Over 3.5 receptions +120 (1 unit)

Colorado/UCLA

Darren Andrews Under 1.5 TD +105 (1 unit)
 
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