NCAAF Week 5 Card

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
2007 NCAAF Record

Sides: 24-13-2 (64.9%) [+12.1 Units]
Totals: 0-0
Parlays: 0-0
ML Dogs: 1-3 (25.0%) [-0.3 Units]


'an_horse'


Week 5 Card

Penn St -2.5 [2 Units]

Clemson -2.5 [1 Unit]

Ohio State -23 [1 Unit]

San Diego State +14.5 [0.4 Units]

& a few ML plays...

Michigan St +260 [0.5 Units]

California +190 [0.5 Units]

UCLA +120 [0.5 Units]


'an_horse'


Week 5 Leans

South Florida +7 --> hoping this line rises

Ohio +3 --> will be Kent's 4th road game this year (2nd consecutive)

Clemson -2.5 --> Davis and Spiller should have success against an exposed GT defense

Air Force +2.5 --> I may wait for the ML on this one, especially after Navy's performance against Temple


All feedback will be greatly appreciated! GL this week fellas!

:cheers:
 
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Dmoney - Thanks bro. I will definitely get to the Aztecs at some point. :cheers:

And now, a little bit of reasoning...

Penn St -2.5 @ Illinois --> The Nittany Lions are coming off a tough 9-14 loss at the big house, where they always seem to have difficulty. Illinois is coming off a 27-14 road-win over the Indiana Hoosiers. While Illinois does present some trouble with their rushing attack and a mobile Juice Williams, they have yet to face a defense of this calibur. With Penn St having so much speed at linebacker, it should be tough going for Williams and Co. Also, Illinois offensive success thus far can also be attributed to the lack of tough defensive opponents (Mizzou, Western Ill, Syracuse, Indiana). Penn St should be able to bottle up Mendenhall for the most part, as the defense is only giving up 55 yards/game on the ground (including Hart's solid performance last Saturday). The Fighting Illini are only giving up 87 yards/game on the ground, but playing Western Ill and Syracuse (with no running game), and a passing team like Mizzou can help skew the stats in your favor. Considering this is a Big Ten matchup between two 3-1 teams, I don't think Joe Pa will have the boys take this one lightly. Kinlaw and Scott should bounce back with solid performances this week, taking pressure off Morelli, which will allow him to manage the game effectively.

Penn St 26
Illinois 13


:cheers:
 
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Adding...

Clemson -2.5 [1 Unit]


Clemson -2.5 @ Georgia Tech --> I HATE laying points with the Tigers on the road, but...GT is starting to come apart. Davis and Spiller should have plenty of success, despite GT's relatively stingy rush defense. My only worry in this game is GT's ability to run the ball (although stats are skewed by nearly 400 yards rushing against Samford), though they have struggled the past few weeks against solid defenses in BC and UVA. Regardless, Clemson has too many weapons. Game will be tight at the half, with Davis and Spiller helping the Tigers to pull away in the 3rd & 4th Quarters.

Clemson 27
Georgia Tech 17


:tiphat:
 
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Adding...

Ohio State -23 [1 Unit]


Ohio State -23 @ Minnesota --> I hate laying so much on the road, but tOSU outclasses Minny substantially on both sides of the ball. tOSU has only given up 2 TDs in their first 4 games this year, and are allowing a meager average of 177 total yards/game. Pinnix and the Gopher offense may put up 10-13 points, but their porous defense should give up at least 40 to the Buckeyes. Boeckman has looked solid and been smart with the football (10 TDs - 3 INTs), and we all know what Wells is capable of. Buckeyes build an early lead and cruise in the second half.

Ohio St 48
Minnesota 13
 
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aztec - nice year so far bro, keep it up! i'm on psu and clemson with ya and am looking into osu as i have this circled. gl
 
pags - Thanks bro! BOL! :cheers:

ATP - I'm hoping the USF line will rise just a tad more. GL bro!

mags - Well, needless to say...I'm liking your card! LOL! :cheers:
 
Since I have been asked by some fellow degenerates, here are my thoughts on SDSU this coming Satuday...

I know my choice will be unpopular, but Cinci -14 @ SDSU is a NO-PLAY for a couple of reasons.

For starters, SDSU's first two games were against tough, Pac-10 opponents (ASU & Wazzu, both on the road). SDSU did give up 17 to Portland State, but the offense put up 52, which forced the Vikings to go to the air for most of the 2nd Half. I'm definitely not saying our defense is good, but this game was definitely not a shootout. O'Connell has been serviceable, and Bornes has been streaky.

Cinci, on the other hand, has played Southeast Mizzouri State (LOL), MiamiOH (who got crushed/shutout by Colorado), and Marshall (giving up nearly 300 yards/game on the ground). Their only legit opponent to this point has been Oregon State, who fell apart on National TV with a hapless Canfield at the helm. I look at OSU's game against Cinci much like UCLA's game against Utah...nothing went right for the Beavers that night.

I'm just leary of laying so many points on the road with the Bearcat offense. Yes, they've looked good...but this will only be their second road game so far this season, and a very long one at that (Cinci to San Diego). Their other road-game was right around the corner in Miami(OH).

And, this is also a bit of a trap game for Cinci. This team is new to the Top-25 realm, and they're traveling to play a team that everyone thinks they will handle with ease. It's easy to fall from grace when you suddenly shift from the Underdog to the Favored. With a potential Top-25 matchup against Rutgers looming next week, it's tough not to think that some of the Bearcat's will be thinking ahead to their biggest road game of the season.

Again, I do think Cinci is the right side...but it's still a no play for me. I typically don't bet against the Aztecs anyway.

GL this week fellas!
 
BAR - GL this week bud! :cheers:

counselor - It's just my opinion. I'm not always right on the Aztecs (historically a tough team to get a read on from an ATS standpoint).
 
Thanks Aztec,

I was already on San Diego State +14.5 But liking it even more. I agree with all of your points. Cincinnati has benefited as well from a +15 turnover margin so far this year. Loving the Aztecs in this spot. I just hope they can play enough defense to stay within 14 or less. I like Cincinnati and their head coach Kelly has been on my radar screen for a long time, one of the best coaches in college football. It won't be long before he moves up to an even better program.

However, San Diego State looks to have a servicable offense this year, and at the least should do enough to get me a backdoor cover here. Bad spot for Cinci and their backers here. Take the points with the Aztecs.
 
Tim - Thanks bro...GL to you as well! :cheers:

sirwinzalot - I wish you the best of luck this week (especially on the Aztecs)!

:cheers:
 
Adding...

Michigan St +260 [0.5 Units]

California +190 [0.5 Units]

UCLA +120 [0.5 Units]


:cheers:
 
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GL Aztec. Nice thoughts on the SDSU/Cinncy game. Might have to join you and yanks on UCLA. I think UCLA's front 7 can stop Bernard and force Canfield to throw the ball which is never a good plan.
 
Yanks - :cheers:

JPicks - Thanks bro. I agree that UCLA's front seven are good enough to at least contain Bernard. And Canfield just plain sucks, so...as long as Markey does work, the Bruins should pull it out.

GL! :cheers:
 
RSMS - Thanks bud! GL this week! :cheers:


Adding...

San Diego State +14.5 [0.9 Units] --> What can I say? I talked myself into it. If we get blown out in this one, someone will need to bitch slap Chuck Long. That someone could very well be me.


:tiphat:
 
Last edited:
Aztec4Life said:
RSMS - Thanks bud! GL this week! :cheers:


Adding...

San Diego State +14.5 [0.4 Units] --> What can I say? I talked myself into it. If we get blown out in this one, someone will need to bitch slap Chuck Long. That someone could very well be me.


:tiphat:
Click to expand...

I'll shake his hand.
 
I like your Penn State and Clemson plays.
And just might risk a buck on your Aztecs.
GL and good write-ups.
 
Thanks bull! GL brotha! :cheers:

Adding...

Ohio State -23 [0.5 Units] --> on top of my original bet, but paying very high juice for buying a point. I'm dumb.
 
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2007 NCAAF Record

Sides: 24-16-3 (60.0%) [+8.2 Units]
Totals: 0-0
Parlays: 0-0
ML Dogs: 3-4 (42.9%) [+0.7 Units]


'an_horse'


Week 5 Card

Penn St -2.5 [2 Units] :mad:

Ohio State -23 [1.5 Units] :rolleyes:

Clemson -2.5 [1 Unit] :mad:

San Diego State +14.5 [0.9 Units] :mad:

& a few ML plays...

Michigan St +260 [0.5 Units] :mad:

California +190 [0.5 Units] :D

UCLA +120 [0.5 Units] :D



:cheers:


On a side note...YOU SUCK Anthony Morelli!

And, I'm a moron for betting on my Aztecs. We are pathetic.

:down2: --> Me
 
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