NCAAF Week 3

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Overall: 55-30 (+41.05 units)

Week 3 GOY:
Oregon -1 v. Wyoming -120 (3 units)
Louisville -2 v. Clemson -120 (1 unit)
Ole Miss -3.5 @ Cal -120 (1 unit)
Texas +12 @ USC -110 (1 unit)
ECU +21.5 v. VT -120 (1 unit)
Miss St +11 v. LSU -120 (1 unit)
MTSU +15 @ Minnesota -120 (1 unit)

Don't particularly love what I'm stuck with this week on the GOYs. Oregon I wish I had more on but prob didn't do a great job this week grabbing value overall. I won't have it on Louisville, Texas nor ECU.
 
Where do you already have opening numbers? BOL. That's a really fascinating game. Reviving Oregon skill set vs developing Brian Allen minus support crew from last year
 
CK ... Do you think there is any reason for someone to dummy a bol move? Would that move be taken into consideration by the sharper books later for their release? Some interesting moves I see happening there ( I don't have bol ).
 
vk said:
CK ... Do you think there is any reason for someone to dummy a bol move? Would that move be taken into consideration by the sharper books later for their release? Some interesting moves I see happening there ( I don't have bol ).
Click to expand...
I'm prob not best guy to answer this. There are only two websites (5dimes and BOL) where my bets will ever run up against limit issues. So being a smaller, more recreational player I don't know a whole lot about market manipulation. I know on 5dimes last year there were some FBS/FCS crossovers that I can say with a high degree of certainty were purely manipulation. For example. I bet UT Chattanooga/Bama Under 70 something last year LOL. Now that BM isn't giving crossover totals I haven't seen any of that, people are just playing it straight on 5dimes, IMO. Not sure BM actually respects anyone else's numbers so I would say that there prob isn't manipulation on their openers but I don't really know...?
 
Illinois/USF Over 51 -110 (1 unit)
UConn/Virginia Over 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
UNC/ODU Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
MTSU/Minnesota Over 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
CMU/Syracuse Over 61 -110 (2 units)
VT/ECU Over 57.5 -110 (2 units)
Tennessee/Florida Under 56 -115 (2 units)
Arizona State/Texas Tech Over 72.5 -120 (2 units)
 
Forgot one

SJSU/Utah Over 50 -110 (1 unit)

Think that's it. Betting openers from personal wifi hotspot on vacation. Will check back through later but pretty sure that's all I took
 
Week 3 GOY:
Oregon -1 v. Wyoming -120 (3 units)
Louisville -2 v. Clemson -120 (1 unit)
Ole Miss -3.5 @ Cal -120 (1 unit)
Texas +12 @ USC -110 (1 unit)
ECU +21.5 v. VT -120 (1 unit)
Miss St +11 v. LSU -120 (1 unit)
MTSU +15 @ Minnesota -120 (1 unit)

Lee Corso to pick Clemson +350 (.30 unit)

Memphis +7.5 +100 (2 units)
Syracuse -5.5 -110 (2 units)
Southern Miss -5 -105 (1 unit)
Tennessee +8.5 -110 (1 unit)

CMU/Syracuse Over 61 -110 (2 units)
VT/ECU Over 57.5 -110 (2 units)
Tennessee/Florida Under 56 -115 (2 units)
Arizona State/Texas Tech Over 72.5 -120 (2 units)
Illinois/USF Over 51 -110 (1 unit)
UConn/Virginia Over 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
UNC/ODU Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
MTSU/Minnesota Over 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
SJSU/Utah Over 50 -110 (1 unit)
NIU/Nebraska Over 56 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State/Washington State Under 62.5 -110 (1 unit)
Kansas State/Vanderbilt Under 50.5 -110 (1 unit)

That's all for now.
 
NC A&T/Charlotte Over 53 -120 (1 unit)
Southern/UTSA Under 51 -120 (1 unit)
Alabama A&M/South Alabama Under 55 -120 (1 unit)
 
CK, great work - some amazing numbers and record to go with it. Question - when do the Totals come out? Assume it's BOL coming out first like they do with the spread. I work Monday's like most but might try to sneak in and get some better numbers. thank you
 
lvmike32 said:
CK, great work - some amazing numbers and record to go with it. Question - when do the Totals come out? Assume it's BOL coming out first like they do with the spread. I work Monday's like most but might try to sneak in and get some better numbers. thank you
Click to expand...
Thanks - They come out every Monday but it varies between BOL releasing theirs first or BM taking the lead. Was BM last week, BOL this week. Usually will be sometime in the afternoon EST

I missed this forecast, I thought the weather was gonna be past but the game is on Friday not on a Saturday and that was my error. Lot can change between now and then but gonna reduce my bet size on Illinois/USF Ov (Have Over 51 for 1 u)

Illinois/USF Under 52 -110 (.75 unit)
 
Future Vacation Fund:

GOY:

Week 4:
Stanford -7 v. UCLA -110 (3 units)

Week 5:
Colorado +7 @ UCLA -110 (1.5 units)

Week 8:
Oregon PICK @ UCLA -110 (1.5 units)

Week 9:
Washington -11.5 v. UCLA (1.5 units)

Week 10:
Utah -2.5 v. UCLA -110 (3 units)

Week 12:
USC -12.5 v. UCLA -110 (1.5 units)

If you couldn't tell, I think this is the highest UCLA's value will ever be so taking advantage with the Sportsbook & BetUSA GOY re-releases.
 
Interesting strategy with UCLA...

I like the thinking... grab a number and go from there...

Enjoy the vaca...
 
B.A.R. said:
Interesting strategy with UCLA...

I like the thinking... grab a number and go from there...

Enjoy the vaca...
Click to expand...
If aTm had a heart and actually blew them out like they should have and if Memphis beats them while hanging 40+ this weekend - what would all these numbers be? A TD worse per, prob. Most overrated team in country right now, IMO.
 
Prop I like for tonight:

Alexander Mattison Over 74.5 rushing yards -110 (1 unit)

Mattison didn't get much run in the first game as we was recovering from injury. He and Wolpin have split carries but Alex got the majority last week while Cozart used his legs at QB when Rypien went out. Mattison had 13-82 against a very good Troy front and 14-63 against a salty Wazzu front last week. I expect him to get closer to 20 carries tonight to take pressure off of Cozart at QB. While New Mexico's rush defense numbers are impressive on paper, I'm not ready to buy. Boise OL hasn't been very good so far and Boise has been going more RBBC than in year's past through two games but I think this is worth a 1 unit stab.
 
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