NCAAF Week 15

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Week 11: 18-10 (+8.05 units)
Week 12: 22-15 (+7.42 units)
Week 13: 35-19 (+16.59 units)
Week 14: 30-26 (+4.65 units)
Overall: 335-236 (+95.38 units)

Games played in futures market:

LSU -2.5 v. UGA -115 (2 units)
AAC West Champ -5.5 v. Cincinnati -110 (2.5 units)
Ohio State -12.5 v. Wisconsin -110 (1 unit)

CFP Matchups (Any round matchup = Action):

LSU -3 v. UGA -115 (1.5 units)
Ohio State +1 v. Clemson -110 (1 unit)
 
Will prob play something on every game, but grabbed these at open. Missed the 10 on Baylor, which I wanted, so will re-gather and see what I wanna do.

Utah -2.5 v Oregon -115 (1.5 units)
CMU -2.5 v Miami Ohio -110 (1 unit)
FAU -6.5 v UAB -110 (1.5 units)
Cincinnati +10.5 @ Memphis -112 avg (2.5 units)
 
RetroVK said:
Will it be Ridder next week?
Click to expand...

I assume so. He was held out for "precautionary" reasons last week. I haven't rewatched the game, but backup seemed fine either way. I bet the blind -5.5 before the game was played, just knew it would be off the market because the exact same matchup was 2 TD. I think I'll have a fair shot to win both again.

RetroVK said:
Do you have Saban's record in one score finishes?
Click to expand...

I don't, but I assume it's not good. He seems to not be good ATS when it's not a big spread either.
 
CrimsonK said:
I assume so. He was held out for "precautionary" reasons last week. I haven't rewatched the game, but backup seemed fine either way. I bet the blind -5.5 before the game was played, just knew it would be off the market because the exact same matchup was 2 TD. I think I'll have a fair shot to win both again.



I don't, but I assume it's not good. He seems to not be good ATS when it's not a big spread either.
Click to expand...

You have a more than fair shot of winning both. I thought the backup played well except I also think it allowed Memphis to not worry about the QB keep part of the read option.

And pretty sure Saban is bad in close games. Not saying it is all his fault (the Auburn game with the returned fg for a TD after he didn't kick what was virtually a game winning chip shot earlier was his fault) with the 100 yard int return, the refs blown calls, the missed chip shot fg, etc.. lots of fluke plays in that game. Worst of all, I felt like he really wanted that game. He was as flustered at the halftime interview as you will ever see the guy.
 
CPA-hole said:
Going back to 2009 Saban is:

12-9 in regular season in one score games
3-3 in post season one score games (Sec Champ, Bowl, Playoffs, Natl Champ)
Click to expand...

Thanks.
I was interested in the games where the line was small too. Meaning 12-9 in one score games can mean that he was involved in one score games where he was a three score favorite. I don't know that, cause I haven't looked it up.

Anyway, I just feel I have liked them in situations where I am just asking them to win and I have done terrible with it. I didn't bet yesterday but I liked them. I decided to try and get involved at halftime but then after that first half, I had zero clue what to expect in the second half.
 
RetroVK said:
Thanks.
I was interested in the games where the line was small too. Meaning 12-9 in one score games can mean that he was involved in one score games where he was a three score favorite. I don't know that, cause I haven't looked it up.

Anyway, I just feel I have liked them in situations where I am just asking them to win and I have done terrible with it. I didn't bet yesterday but I liked them. I decided to try and get involved at halftime but then after that first half, I had zero clue what to expect in the second half.
Click to expand...

In the 27 games:

17 times spread was under 10
5 times spread was 10-12
4 times spread 13.5-14.5
1 game spread was 25.5 @ A&M 2017

Bama was favored in every game.
 
I have Utah 120/1 to win CFP, and I'm trying what to do with this game for possible hedging purposes. In your opinion, what are their chances of getting in CFP with a win here, granted LSU wins SEC of course? Thanks.
 
CrimsonK said:
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Week 11: 18-10 (+8.05 units)
Week 12: 22-15 (+7.42 units)
Week 13: 35-19 (+16.59 units)
Week 14: 30-26 (+4.65 units)
Overall: 335-236 (+95.38 units)

Games played in futures market:

LSU -2.5 v. UGA -115 (2 units)
AAC West Champ -5.5 v. Cincinnati -110 (2.5 units)
Ohio State -12.5 v. Wisconsin -110 (1 unit)

CFP Matchups (Any round matchup = Action):

LSU -3 v. UGA -115 (1.5 units)
Ohio State +1 v. Clemson -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...

Hey CK,

I haven't paid too close attention to your plays because I'm not betting much this season but congrats on another great year. Amazing that 100 units seems standard. I use a 100 unit bankroll.

Anyway, question for you. When you say the first group a plays were played in the futures market - have you posted them before? Or is this the first time you have posted them? When I think of "futures" I think of the stuff you post before Week 1 - but these are Conference Championship games so obviously they must be fairly recent. thanks as always.
 
AliShaheed said:
Great number on Utah...is there a certain point in which you'd play it back on Oregon?
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I’m trying to discern just how far in the toilet Oregon is right now. The last two weeks have illuminated cracks in their facade that I believed existed, but they masked well. Normally with Whitt’s conservative nature, I would prob be content with Oregon +7.5 but I think Utah’s position in standings changes the complexion some. If I get a 7.5, I’ll give it serious consideration, but I really feel good and fortunate to have been logged in and ready at open today. I think I’m holding a good one.
 
frattycapper22 said:
I have Utah 120/1 to win CFP, and I'm trying what to do with this game for possible hedging purposes. In your opinion, what are their chances of getting in CFP with a win here, granted LSU wins SEC of course? Thanks.
Click to expand...
I was taught the following about hedging and I try to roughly adhere to this:

1. Does the amount of money you would stand to win or lose (change in employment, sick dependent, etc) change your quality of life.

2. Did the information change enough from time you made the bet until this moment that you would play the “hedge” as an independent wager?

If the answer is No to both, then let it ride.

If it’s a Yes to either/both, ask someone else who is both better with math and has experience managing long odd future portfolios to help advise you. I’m out of my depth. Wish I could be of more help, but it’s not my area of expertise.
 
lvmike32 said:
Hey CK,

I haven't paid too close attention to your plays because I'm not betting much this season but congrats on another great year. Amazing that 100 units seems standard. I use a 100 unit bankroll.

Anyway, question for you. When you say the first group a plays were played in the futures market - have you posted them before? Or is this the first time you have posted them? When I think of "futures" I think of the stuff you post before Week 1 - but these are Conference Championship games so obviously they must be fairly recent. thanks as always.
Click to expand...

Thank you!


For most of year, I changed what I personally would refer to as GOY bets as “games played in futures market” because everyweek there seemed to be confusion about why my “game of the year” was only a one unit risk. For the threads intents and purposes, they are bets that I play anytime from May until the day before the large market opens for weekly spreads. As far as this week goes, post #1 includes bets that I made from the middle of last week until Saturday, Nov 30. I did not post those until this morning. I try to post all “futures” bets I make ahead of time but I was juggling family with holidays for past several days. I had about 5 other bets that were all hypothetical CFP games where I bet against Bama, but those will all be voided and refunded now after the loss to Auburn and subsequent elimination from CFP consideration.

I hope that was coherent and answered your question. Let me know if not and I’ll try again in morning. I’ve been caffeine free for 13 hours!
 
frattycapper22 said:
Thanks for your, as always. Who do you think gets 4th spot if LSU, Utah, and Oklahoma all win their conference championships?
Click to expand...
Utah, I think. However, I would prob have better success guessing how many candy corns are in a jar at the local carnival than understanding what any college football decision maker in a place of power uses as their rationale for rankings, awards, etc.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thank you!


For most of year, I changed what I personally would refer to as GOY bets as “games played in futures market” because everyweek there seemed to be confusion about why my “game of the year” was only a one unit risk. For the threads intents and purposes, they are bets that I play anytime from May until the day before the large market opens for weekly spreads. As far as this week goes, post #1 includes bets that I made from the middle of last week until Saturday, Nov 30. I did not post those until this morning. I try to post all “futures” bets I make ahead of time but I was juggling family with holidays for past several days. I had about 5 other bets that were all hypothetical CFP games where I bet against Bama, but those will all be voided and refunded now after the loss to Auburn and subsequent elimination from CFP consideration.

I hope that was coherent and answered your question. Let me know if not and I’ll try again in morning. I’ve been caffeine free for 13 hours!
Click to expand...
One other simplified comment:

Bovada, Bet Online, Fan Duel, and Points Bet all posted the lookahead lines last week that you’ll see in post #1.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thank you!


For most of year, I changed what I personally would refer to as GOY bets as “games played in futures market” because everyweek there seemed to be confusion about why my “game of the year” was only a one unit risk. For the threads intents and purposes, they are bets that I play anytime from May until the day before the large market opens for weekly spreads. As far as this week goes, post #1 includes bets that I made from the middle of last week until Saturday, Nov 30. I did not post those until this morning. I try to post all “futures” bets I make ahead of time but I was juggling family with holidays for past several days. I had about 5 other bets that were all hypothetical CFP games where I bet against Bama, but those will all be voided and refunded now after the loss to Auburn and subsequent elimination from CFP consideration.

I hope that was coherent and answered your question. Let me know if not and I’ll try again in morning. I’ve been caffeine free for 13 hours!
Click to expand...
Thanks CK. Think that does it. No worries - you go beyond the call of duty in posting your plays. I'm already planning for next season and just wanted to make sure I didn't miss anything. The early betting is so important. thanks again.
 
CrimsonK said:
I would assume he would be their first choice. Would guess it also depends on the seriousness of his candidacy at FSU.
Click to expand...
I think if he doesn't take it, Billy Napier would be a solid candidate. Another name that won't be all that sexy, but I would interview is Willie Fritz. Could be the best fit with Plumlee in the short term.

***Kiffin too, assuming he didnt take the Hog job.
 
CK,

Hope you can help me with something. I've been getting burned on FAU all year, and I'm trying to figure it out. Their situation this week is very similar to what they've looked at all year, but here's what I mean:

When you match up FAU v UAB, a couple things jump out when FAU has the ball. i.e.; FAU #66 in yards per play v UAB #5. FAU #54 Yards per pass attempt vs UAB #14. FAU #79 in yards per carry vs UAB #3 in yards per carry against. Also, UAB is #14 in passing yards per attempt vs FAU's #60 D.

Despite all this, I still expect FAU to score on UAB and move the ball at will, because they seem to have a voodoo magic that the stats don't reflect. Am I missing something with them? I know they have been one of the best turnover margin teams but there seems to be more than that.
 
CrimsonK said:
I’m trying to discern just how far in the toilet Oregon is right now. The last two weeks have illuminated cracks in their facade that I believed existed, but they masked well. Normally with Whitt’s conservative nature, I would prob be content with Oregon +7.5 but I think Utah’s position in standings changes the complexion some. If I get a 7.5, I’ll give it serious consideration, but I really feel good and fortunate to have been logged in and ready at open today. I think I’m holding a good one.
Click to expand...

Really damn good, under a fg? Great get man! I still lean utes at -6.5.
 
CrimsonK said:
Hawaii/Boise Over 59.5 -110 (2 units)
UVA/Clemson Over 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...
That UVA/Clemson game might feature 2-3 sack/fumble/TDs for Clemson. At times, Perkins plays as if the idea of an opposing pass rusher is a foreign concept, and that will be a monumental mismatch between the Clemson DL and that UVA OL.
 
Br@ssknux said:
That UVA/Clemson game might feature 2-3 sack/fumble/TDs for Clemson. At times, Perkins plays as if the idea of an opposing pass rusher is a foreign concept, and that will be a monumental mismatch between the Clemson DL and that UVA OL.
Click to expand...

I love this over. Although I see rain in forecast I really don’t pay attention to weather reports 5 days away. The weatherman in my area can barely tell us what happening in real time! Lol.

Uva defense has really fallen off the last month +. They have allowed 27 or more to ville, unc, Hokies, and freaking liberty and Gtech!! Really hard to imagine tigers can’t hang a 40 burger. Uva offense has been solid tho, was really impressed they were able to hang 30+ on a Hokies d that been playing great. I think uva qb ability to move will help negate the pass rush. Really think uva gets 14 this goes over and I think they can easily get 14-20..
 
2daBank said:
I love this over. Although I see rain in forecast I really don’t pay attention to weather reports 5 days away. The weatherman in my area can barely tell us what happening in real time! Lol.

Uva defense has really fallen off the last month +. They have allowed 27 or more to ville, unc, Hokies, and freaking liberty and Gtech!! Really hard to imagine tigers can’t hang a 40 burger. Uva offense has been solid tho, was really impressed they were able to hang 30+ on a Hokies d that been playing great. I think uva qb ability to move will help negate the pass rush. Really think uva gets 14 this goes over and I think they can easily get 14-20..
Click to expand...

Local weather here in Charlotte for the game is calling for clear skies so far, so weather should be a non factor.
 
Br@ssknux said:
CK,

Hope you can help me with something. I've been getting burned on FAU all year, and I'm trying to figure it out. Their situation this week is very similar to what they've looked at all year, but here's what I mean:

When you match up FAU v UAB, a couple things jump out when FAU has the ball. i.e.; FAU #66 in yards per play v UAB #5. FAU #54 Yards per pass attempt vs UAB #14. FAU #79 in yards per carry vs UAB #3 in yards per carry against. Also, UAB is #14 in passing yards per attempt vs FAU's #60 D.

Despite all this, I still expect FAU to score on UAB and move the ball at will, because they seem to have a voodoo magic that the stats don't reflect. Am I missing something with them? I know they have been one of the best turnover margin teams but there seems to be more than that.
Click to expand...
UAB @ FAU (-8/49.5) Boca weather is preeeeety nice. 80 and sunny for the game. Could there be some distractions for both teams? We know Ark went down and interviewed Kiff, think Bill Clark will get talked to for a bunch of jobs as well. My guess is if it impact any team adversely it would be FAU. Thats just my opinion though. Not sure it has any merit. I hope not, I played FAU -6.5. I think their offense is the key to the game. I'm not sure that UAB can trade with them. While UAB defense is very impressive statistically, FAU has potential to be v good. Theyve scored 28+ in 10 of last 10 and 31 in 9 of 10 with five games with 40+. I dont expect that here, but I dont think highly of the UAB offense. They dealt w QB injury which depressed some seasonal numbers, but they are a run team that cant run. Their OL was v good LY, bad TY Both OLs are actually really bad. From CFF standpoint, these are normally two top producers of RBs, but not this year as they both run the ball really poorly. FAU just has more talent and more explosiveness at the position. UAB QB can run and is a gamer. FAU one of best TO margin in country and UAB has been loose with the ball. Predicting turnovers is generally a fool's errand for me, but reason to believe FAU wins it here. UAB hasn't allowed 400 yards on defense yet but FAU gotten there in 67% of games on offense. I think this game could be closer the more I look at it. I have the -6.5 on FAU but I'm considering grabbing some UAB as well and shooting for the tight window middle. I will go with a 28-20 Owl win and Lane rides off into the SEC sunset after the game.
 
Thanks CK, great breakdown.

Like I said, when I go off the stats, I like UAB due to how good their defense looks on paper, but I think both of these teams regress away from what they look like on paper. For example, FAU has consistently put up points as you mentioned, but their offensive numbers are only average. 66th in yards per play, 76th in yards per carry, 54th in yards per pass attempt and 86th on 3rd down. Doesn't seem like the numbers of a team that puts up 30+ every week, but there they are. You'd think that a defense that grades out like UAB's would have great success, but I still anticipate FAU doing what they always do. Unless the number gets even higher I'm probably gonna pass, but the way this matchup looks on paper would usually be an autoplay on UAB for me.
 
Props:

Thomas Hennigan Over 57.5 rec yards -120
Charlie Brewer Over 30.5 rush yards -120
Spencer Brown Over 49.5 rush yards -120
Jonathan Taylor Over 1.5 catches -122
 
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