NCAAF Week 13

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.00 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Week 7: 21-15 (+8.65 units)
Week 8: 19-19 (-1.82 units)
Week 9: 22-15 (+8.55 units)
Week 10: 20-10 (+9.83 units)
Week 11: 17-10 (+6.00 units)
Week 12: 15-19 (-5.78 units)
Overall: 268-178 (+107.47 units)

GOY:

NC State -3 @ UNC -110 (1 unit)
Vandy +1 v. Tennessee -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +13 @ Missouri -120 (1 unit)
Arizona -5.5 v Arizona State -120 (1 unit)
Notre Dame -1 @ USC -110 (1.5 units)
Houston +7.5 @ Memphis -110 (1 unit)
Memphis -1.5 v Houston -110 (1 unit)
Texas A&M -1 v. LSU -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky +8.5 @ Louisville -110 (2 units)
Alabama -7 v. Auburn -120 (1.5 units)
Utah State +17.5 @ Boise State -110 (1 unit)
 
Thanks, guys. More good than bad, which tends to be my pattern playing GOYs. Thankful to have been right on a few teams for most of season and not happy with my season long read on others, Arizona State, in particular.
 
Thanks, all. Like most of us, this final regular season weekend on the tail end of thanksgiving is somewhat sacred. As much as I love it as a fan, it can be one of the most frustrating as a bettor. I can specifically recall so many instances in past few years where it's 2 PM EST on Friday afternoon, just woke up from my third nap of the day and I look at the scores and think, 'WTF is going on here?!' I decided to make notes this past season and told myself to attack the final week by playing the futures market for the final big card. I'm sure I'll still find myself thinking the same thing in a few days, but at least I'll have a bit more margin for error in a lot of those games!
 
The Five Pack said:
Alright I'll ask, which if any would you play at current numbers? :tiphat:
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Not a whole lot.

Texas AM, Vandy I would likely play whatever they release it at (assuming they will be -3 or better but oddsmakers hate them), Buffalo, NC State I would prob still play as well. I wish I could erase the Zona and Arky bets for sure, the others I'm pretty happy with but wouldnt prob back them at currents.
 
Colorado State/Air Force Over 57.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Miss St/Miss Over 54 -110 (1 unit)
Miss St/Miss Under 58.5 -110 (1 unit)
Buffalo/BGSU Over 53.5/56 -110 (2 units)
Houston/Memphis Over 75 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse/BC Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
Michigan/Ohio State Under 59 -110 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech/Georgia Under 61 -110 (1 unit)
New Mexico State/Liberty Over 73 -110 (1 unit)
Florida/FSU Under 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
 
RetroVK said:
What do you know about Tune?
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Better backup QB than just about any AAC team can furnish. Was committed to Kansas at one point. Had offers from them, Ole Miss, FAU, North Texas, Baylor, so you can get a feel for the type of system that wanted his services. Only saw part of his relief duties against Tulane but what I saw was a beauty of a deep ball TD. I’m not sure how good he really needs to be with Briles calling plays and facing Memphis secondary. If he does like Ben Hicks did last week and miss all sorts of wide open guys then they could get in trouble but I sense they are going to be playing from behind with lotta tempo while also using some wild cat with Stevenson, Carr, and Smith. Bryson Smith is a really interesting player. He was a former QB that is among best athletes on team so they had him play WR this year, almost exactly like King last year before moving to QB. King was a hell of a HS QB, which you may know with your knowledge of Texas ball, but I think Smith will be an interesting wrinkle this week, but he did get dinged up last week. Houston just lost another DL and I seriously doubt Oliver plays so I just don’t think they are gonna be able to slow Memphis, even though you and I both know the clear blueprint. This defense has always been terrible v pass this year but after attrition on DL happened, they are a train wreck all around. I could see this playing out like a typical Memphis Houston game we’ve seen in years past, fun game. Boy am I sad about King. He’s on every one of my fantasy teams and is one of my favorite players in CFB. Thankful we get one more year though.
 
Thanks CK.

It is certainly unfortunate what happened to him and I do hope to get to see him play again.

Thanks for the detailed response.

I guess I am having a hard time being sure how to value him. With King, I obviously jump at the current line, but not sure how many pts it is worth .. if they are changing up what they are doing, quite a bit, I fear. If they are going to run their normal offense and have the personnel to do it, there is no reason they couldn't score with Memphis. But first week out of the gates in that type of game is probably asking for too much there even if the other guys are basically ready to go and decent. Given how we both feel about King, those are not easy shoes to fill.

Thanks for the insight as always. Willing to buy a piece of some of your GOY's this week if you are nervous about having just two TD's the best of it.....
 
Sure thing!

I know nobody wants to hear it, but I have a startling poor record when beating close by double digits, like prob sub 50%
 
Can someone explain the A&M line movement? I figured this would trend back towards LSU given A&M’s 104th ranked pass D. Maybe factoring LSU’s stubborn OC who will insist on running the ball against the Aggie’s 4th ranked run D.

Yes, it’s at Kyle Field and the weirdo dial will he turned to 11, LSU has not been a good road team...but something still seems off here.
 
Vasherized said:
Can someone explain the A&M line movement? I figured this would trend back towards LSU given A&M’s 104th ranked pass D. Maybe factoring LSU’s stubborn OC who will insist on running the ball against the Aggie’s 4th ranked run D.

Yes, it’s at Kyle Field and the weirdo dial will he turned to 11, LSU has not been a good road team...but something still seems off here.
Click to expand...

Weirdo dial?
 
pressitup said:
They are too old to travel. I doubt they'll ever make it again, unless the worst happens and we end up with roommates.
I hope I didn't just jinx myself.
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Sorry to hear that on multiple levels. I'd tell you to go pick the up, but I know what that ultimately means.
 
jmm102 said:
Would you play the under at 62 now also? I wasn't sure what to make of your ov54/un58.5 plays.
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Sorry, I know that was a bit confusing. I felt really good about that one finishing mid 50s so I played both sides. I think I prefer the ole miss TT Under to anything else in that game. If it goes over I think it’s because Miss St crushes them. I do like the Under 62, clearly wish I had that paired with my Over 54 because I think both will win.
 
Nice little brawl.

That Ole Miss QB showed me something tonight. I know it won't look great but he was as unscared as a frosh could be entering that game and then even when the fight broke out he just showed no fear. He might end up being a gamer for them.

Do you think if the fight doesn't happen they notice the quarter end clock?
 
RetroVK said:
Nice little brawl.

That Ole Miss QB showed me something tonight. I know it won't look great but he was as unscared as a frosh could be entering that game and then even when the fight broke out he just showed no fear. He might end up being a gamer for them.

Do you think if the fight doesn't happen they notice the quarter end clock?
Click to expand...
I am a huge fan of Corral. Showed some Baker Mayfield out there tonight. They are gonna be in good hands with him if they can get the new/young Wrs up to speed next year.

I think that game is destined for a fight each year. I know a former big time CFB referee. Did it for many years. Said the Egg Bowl was the only game he and his crews dreaded doing, due to the hatred and violence. Said it was unlike any other thing they saw in any other rivalry.
 
Getting off. Further handicap makes it game best served for a pass and weather in area for 2H cements it.

Houston/Memphis Under 75 -110 (1 unit)
 
Some conf title games got posted late last night. Will do my best to post them in this thread if they are released today and will switch them to week 14 thread tomorrow:

Memphis +10 v UCF -110 (1 unit)

I don’t think they accounted for Milton’s injury with this line.
 
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