NCAAF Week 13

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6.00 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Week 9: 13-16 (-3.18 units)
Week 10: 16-16 (-0.95 units)
Week 11: 18-13 (+1.02 units)
Week 12: 20-15 (+5.05 units)
Overall: 248-167 (+108.31 units)

Ole Miss +17.5 @ Miss St -110 (2.5 units)
NC State -1.5/2 v. UNC -120 (2 units)
FSU -3.5 @ Florida -110 (1.5 units)
WVU +18.5 @ Oklahoma -110 (1.5 units)
Oregon -2 v. Oregon St -120 (1 unit)
Utah -5.5 v. Colorado -110 (1 unit)
Duke +3 @ Wake -120 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech -6.5 @ UVA -110 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Week 0: 3-0 (+6.00 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Week 9: 13-16 (-3.18 units)
Week 10: 16-16 (-0.95 units)
Week 11: 18-13 (+1.02 units)
Week 12: 20-15 (+5.05 units)
Overall: 248-167 (+108.31 units)

Ole Miss +17.5 @ Miss St -110 (2.5 units)
NC State -1.5/2 v. UNC -120 (2 units)
FSU -3.5 @ Florida -110 (1.5 units)
WVU +18.5 @ Oklahoma -110 (1.5 units)
Oregon -2 v. Oregon St -120 (1 unit)
Utah -5.5 v. Colorado -110 (1 unit)
Duke +3 @ Wake -120 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech -6.5 @ UVA -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...


You want to sell me those GOY at face value ***Old Jedi mind trick***. Tell me if that worked.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Looks like you’re going to be happy with your numbers again. Duke???? That one might be different, but all others look solid.
Click to expand...
Duke I won't have a good number and WVU I won't either with Grier mangling his finger. How bout I sell you those two? :)

NC State and Oregon should be pretty killer, VT should be DD, FSU should prob be slightly higher, Ole Miss should be closer to 13, Utah should be just over 7 I'd think but they are consistently undervalued.
 
booksbestfriend said:
I was watching WVU when that happened. Did Not see a replay, as I tuned into another game. If he's out, you're right. If somehow he is able to go, I like your number.
Click to expand...
I believe I heard he's having surgery. I saw some pictures on twitter and his finger was snapped in half. I may have a chance to get off that one, but we are more than likely looking at a 21.5 if I had to guess.
 
That injury to the throwing hand, sorry he isn't throwing a proper football for at least a couple months at best and it honestly may never be quite the same. Didn't know he's having surgery, that's even longer for sure.
 
Ohio/Buffalo Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
New Mexico/San Diego State Under 49 -110 (1 unit)

Boston College/Syracuse Over 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
UNC/NC State Over 54 -110 (2.5 units)
Duke/Wake Forest Over 54 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville/Kentucky Over 65 -110 (1.5 units)
Colorado/Utah Over 56 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State/Oregon Over 61 -110 (1.5 units)
 
Just realized I forgot to post one, apologies. I would play it at 1 unit at 51 where it's currently.

Ohio State/Michigan Under 54 -110 (1.5 units)
 
Timh said:
CK - Am I missing something on Purdue, seems to be cheap to me at 2.5?
Click to expand...
Tim - I didnt spend much time on that game. Purdue is my first instinct when I look at it. Wish I could be more help but the day job whipped me today and I'm trying to do bit more total work.
 
CrimsonK said:
Tim - I didnt spend much time on that game. Purdue is my first instinct when I look at it. Wish I could be more help but the day job whipped me today and I'm trying to do bit more total work.
Click to expand...
No sweat CK, totally understand go where your bread is buttered my friend....
 
Curious your thoughts on UVag, I get the 1.5 point buy off but you thought the Hokes would be DD faves and bought off...no f'n clue how or if I tackle that one but wonder your thinking there.
 
KJ said:
Curious your thoughts on UVag, I get the 1.5 point buy off but you thought the Hokes would be DD faves and bought off...no f'n clue how or if I tackle that one but wonder your thinking there.
Click to expand...

In reference to my comment on VT being DD, that wasn't what I made the number, it was just my expectation of what the number would be. That's often what I'm commenting on in regards to my GOY bets in my first post each week. Part of my strategy when betting some of these GOYs requires me to say, "I was wrong". So my options are to either say it after the game plays out or before if I feel I have option(s) to back a differing opinion. In this instance, I made this bet with the assumption that VT was going to be a legit Natty dark horse and UVA was going to be a bad football team again. Neither are true. I was wrong. I prefer UVA at 8 and it's now down to 6.5 and I think I would pass ta that number. If I had a blank slate and didn't have the GOY, I prob would have played a standalone on UVA slightly less than 1 unit at +8. At current, I would pass. I treat Week 13 sorta differently, if I'm going to back a favorite, particularly one on road, I need to have really good reason. I don't feel there is really good reason to back VT here but as I said at 8, the home dog got my attention. Hope that makes sense? I didnt cover much X's and O's, I can if you want but I don't think I have anything particularly insightful about that either.
 
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Thanks, no X's and O's needed man...kinda figured that was the case, at least you have the 7 cornered...and as well I treat this week completely differently, neither has a look ahead unless I'm missing something, pretty much dog or nothing for me...leaning on nothing. ML might end up getting a play if I'm bored.
 
Timh said:
Looks like its windy in Buffalo, but didn't expect that total to plummet like that.
Click to expand...
Yep, I don't mind a little wind. Jackson has huge arm and wind typically impacts guys with arms like Browning/Falk not big strong guys that can cut through it. The matchup is just so conducive to points. Ohio I guess is safer in wind because of the run game but their secondary is so terrible that Jackson and Johnson shook hook up for as many yards and TD as they want.
 
San Diego/Northern Arizona Over 54 -110 (2 units)
Northern Arizona -11.5 v. San Diego -110 (1 unit)
 
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