NCAAF Week 12

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Week 11: 17-10 (+7.05 units)
Overall: 247-176 (+65.72 units)

Games played in futures market:

Cincinnati +1/7.5 @ USF -128 (avg) (2 units)
Baylor +13/13.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (2 units)
Iowa State +1 v. Texas -110 (1.5 units)
Navy +20/24 @ Notre Dame -108 avg (2.5 units)
Missouri +9.5 v. Florida -110 (1 unit)
Wisconsin +3 @ Nebraska -110 (1.5 units)
Michigan State +14.5 @ Michigan -110 (2.5 units)
 
Buffalo -3 @ Kent State -105 (1 unit)
UNC +6 @ Pitt -105 (1 unit)

Indiana +17 @ Penn State -110 (1.5 units)
Texas AM -10 v South Carolina -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma -8.5 @ Baylor -105 (1 unit)
Michigan -13.5 v Michigan State -110 (1 unit)
Florida -6.5 @ Missouri -115 (1 unit)
Hawaii -6.5 @ UNLV -110 (1 unit)
Miss St +21.5 v Alabama -110 (1.5 units)
Ole Miss +21.5 v LSU -110 (1 unit)
 
AliShaheed said:
I assume you didn't hedge off completely because you like your original number for mich st?
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Correct, wanted to just reduce the position. I only handicapped 1/2 the equation right on that game when I previously bet it.

Wanted to reduce the Baylor side some as well with a shot a decent middle.

Florida I kinda wish I bet more, but after I got it they pulled it, didnt get a chance to double dip.

In general, I only want to have 2.5u or more on a game where I feel I'm playing with a big edge. Even though the market didn't show it last week, I felt ISU was as good as Oklahoma, so I was fine letting it ride, I actually almost added more at half down 21. Most times if I'm letting 2.5u ride, the market will show I got the nuts, well, unless it's Army v AFA :)
 
CrimsonK said:
Buffalo -3 @ Kent State -105 (1 unit)
UNC +6 @ Pitt -105 (1 unit)

Indiana +17 @ Penn State -110 (1.5 units)
Texas AM -10 v South Carolina -110 (1 unit)
Oklahoma -8.5 @ Baylor -105 (1 unit)
Michigan -13.5 v Michigan State -110 (1 unit)
Florida -6.5 @ Missouri -115 (1 unit)
Hawaii -6.5 @ UNLV -110 (1 unit)
Miss St +21.5 v Alabama -110 (1.5 units)
Ole Miss +21.5 v LSU -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...

I was def expecting to see you come back against Baylor, Shame they couldn’t have played better last few weeks and got you a better number on sooners., Do you even like bears at your look ahead number at this point? Assuming you do since you only went 1x on Sooners? Just curious. I thought isu was gonna be a tougher game for sooners than Baylor will be cause I don’t think bears offense stacks up at all anymore.
 
Jfc, great get on bunch of those look ahead lines!! I was really hoping to still see navy getting dd but no such luck.,
 
2daBank said:
I was def expecting to see you come back against Baylor, Shame they couldn’t have played better last few weeks and got you a better number on sooners., Do you even like bears at your look ahead number at this point? Assuming you do since you only went 1x on Sooners? Just curious. I thought isu was gonna be a tougher game for sooners than Baylor will be cause I don’t think bears offense stacks up at all anymore.
Click to expand...
Best way I could answer your question would be that I would bet Baylor for a unit at my future numbers, if that were currently available me today, without any prior investment. As bad as their OL has played, Oklahoma hasn't sacked a QB since Sam Ehlinger. LOL. Something's gotta give. Hoping Baylor defense presents enough issues, however, they play a comparably unique scheme to ISU, which OK handled fine and just saw last week. COnfluence of factors not favorable towards Baylor. It's fundamentally too high at 13+ though, IMO.
 
2daBank said:
Jfc, great get on bunch of those look ahead lines!! I was really hoping to still see navy getting dd but no such luck.,
Click to expand...
I've figured this week would be good to me on value. It was. I have around 20 or so left after this week to round out the season, most of them look like they are gonna be good to me. VT -6 v Pitt won't be, but I still may win, same goes for Ok St +10.5 v Ok and FSU +14 v UF. I have some nice Big 12 and AAC upcoming.
 
EMU/Akron Under 50.5/51 -110 (2 units)
WMU/Ohio Under 64 -110 (1 unit)

VT/GT Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
Troy/Texas State Over 59 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico/Boise State Under 60 -110 (1 unit)
Georgia/Auburn Under 45 -110 (1.5 units)
Georgia/Auburn Over 42.5 +100 (1 unit)
Oklahoma/Baylor Under 67 -110 (1 unit)
Florida/Missouri Under 49.5 -110 (1 unit)
 
CK, i admire your patience and diligence in betting these crazyass totals....last weeks TCU Under was one of the worst beats of my career and enough to make me swear off all totals betting for good LOL... good luck this week brother
 
booksbestfriend said:
I second that notion. I have been on the bad end of several of the moose jobs this week alone.
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Unless you're an action junkie and just like the thrill of betting, or do it for entertainment value like playing penny slots in vegas, I'm not sure how it makes much sense to bet these games. If it was an isolated game then it would be easy enough to just draw it up to randomness, but it's the rule in this league, not the exception.
 
Everything about these mid-week MAC games is bizarro. Maybe 700 people in the stands. Always weird weather - always cold, sometimes icy, sometimes foggy, sometimes both. Mausoleum-like atmosphere. Officials seemingly plucked off the street 40 minutes before kickoff. Same with the ESPN broadcasting crew. Beyond weird action on the field. And on and on.

And there's 4 more of them next week. Yes, avoid at all costs.
 
CK, I had Buffalo also...

Not tryin to be funny but do you think the fix was in on that game??? I watched the whole thing and it looked like Buffalo completely forgot how to play football with 7 mins left... very questionable ref calls and awful play calling... I never cry wolf about losses but this one was too weird...and all almost point shaving scandals or rumors I've heard almost ALWAYS involve the MAC....I refuse to bet it anymore
 
Vasherized said:
That Florida line feels like it should be double digits. Missouri is not good. What am I missing?
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Florida @ Missouri (+7/50) Seems like a rare trip for Gators out of the state. Gonna be cold. I don’t like backing Florida boys in cold. Good matchup for them though defensively. Missouri offers little in way of offense, even if a slightly limited Kelly Bryant plays. Hammy bothering. Florida has been disappointing against limited QBs many times this year though, Grantham has prob been in town too long, he has a 365 day expiration date at a job. Missouri pass defense is good which is where you wanna be good against a Gator offense that doesn’t run well. I took Missouri +9.5 this summer and then Florida -6.5 this week. Also took under 49.5 and then under 50 again once it steamed up with Bryant being listed as probable. I think it’s too many, no matter who is at QB. Missouri is dead without Bryant but he’s no great shakes. Missouri doesn’t have much in way of quality pass catchers and I think that while some teams have picked on Gators young DBs, not much to be scared about in this matchup for them. Missouri is entirely statistically average on offense but have played a really poor schedule. I look at who they’ve put up points on and I can’t find anything that really impresses me. The SEC is even more top heavy than normal this year. The middle and bottom is doo doo. I consider Florida towards top and Missouri in middle. I don’t have high hopes for either tm running. I trust Trask’s ability to throw more than Bryant. Whoda thunk it pre season, but Florida will have the best TE in this game, they will in every game they play though. UF avg game temp 76, mid 40s here. Mizz good at home, but Ill go with a 24-16 Gator win.
 
BigTymePlayer25 said:
CK, I had Buffalo also...

Not tryin to be funny but do you think the fix was in on that game??? I watched the whole thing and it looked like Buffalo completely forgot how to play football with 7 mins left... very questionable ref calls and awful play calling... I never cry wolf about losses but this one was too weird...and all almost point shaving scandals or rumors I've heard almost ALWAYS involve the MAC....I refuse to bet it anymore
Click to expand...
I didn't see anything other than a few clips today. I would be surprised by very little of what a 20-year-old, or group of them would do. Too many strange occurrences for me in that conference, it's likely an area where I'll avoid as well.
 
I have no idea how he will play, but Ellington is playing with a torn ACL. I'll slide out of the total with the 59.5

App State/Ga State Over 59.5 -108 (1 unit)
 
BigTymePlayer25 said:
CK, I had Buffalo also...

Not tryin to be funny but do you think the fix was in on that game??? I watched the whole thing and it looked like Buffalo completely forgot how to play football with 7 mins left... very questionable ref calls and awful play calling... I never cry wolf about losses but this one was too weird...and all almost point shaving scandals or rumors I've heard almost ALWAYS involve the MAC....I refuse to bet it anymore
Click to expand...
I was on buffalo too and watched it. The 2 egregious things were the refs whistles. When fwd progress stopped 2 yards short they let the play go extra long and inevitably the kid got the 1st after not moving for 2-3 seconds he pushed fwd.

I thought ok, slow whistle. Then play before the fg the kid was barely touched and still moving gaining yards and they blew whistle with :01 on clock to allow for a fg.

The disparity between those 2 whistles signaled something weird to me but end of the day up 21 with 7 min left theres alot that has to happen beyond a fix to lose.
 
good points Rambler.... I'm not sure if the fix was in but definitely some weirdness with that game and most of the MAC games.... just too random and shady to bet IMO...good luck today
 
Props:

Charleston Rambo Over 3.5 caches +108 (1 unit)
Charleston Rambo over 62.5 rec yards -113 (1 unit)

Reports that Lamb will miss tonight. I don't have the stomach to straight fade lamb, in case he plays, but I'll make the pivot move for his replacement.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 2.5 catches +100 (1 unit)

Should the Saints stop passing to Alvin Kamara? CEH 16 catches last two games, 4 of nine games he's had 3. If he doesnt cash this they are idiots.
 
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