NCAAF Week 12

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6.00 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Week 9: 13-16 (-3.18 units)
Week 10: 16-16 (-0.95 units)
Week 11: 18-13 (+1.02 units)
Overall: 228-152 (+103.26 units)


Western Carolina +40/41 @ UNC -120 (3 units)
USC -7.5/12.5 v. UCLA -110 (3 units)
Utah +17/21 @ Washington -115 avg (2.5 units)
MTSU +13 @ WKU -120 (1 unit)
Duke +3 v. GT -120 (1 unit)
TCU -1 @ Texas Tech -120 (1 unit)

I won't complain for too long but man I feel I deserved better last week. Decimated market and felt good about lot of the caps. Got blanked on all of my GOY plays which hurt and lost couple others that I shouldn't have. Good news is I should have ridiculous GOY value this week. I have a ton of targets this week so if the numbers line up it could be a big card. I feel great about this week's potential. Hope everyone made money last week and makes even more this week.
 
Kentucky +24 @ Georgia -110 (1 unit)
Duke +9.5 v. GT -110 (1 unit)
Temple +14.5 v. UCF -110 (1.5 units)
Old Dominion -6.5 v. Rice -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech +8 v. TCU -110 (1 unit)
Kansas State +17.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Ole Miss -2.5 v. Texas A&M -110 (1 unit)
 
EFC1878 said:
I feel you on those GOYs. I had TCU +15.5 and Georgia +8.5. 19.5 points of line value across two games, and nothing but 0-2 to show for it. Best of luck this week.
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Brutal stuff. Happens but never fun to squander that type of value. GL this week!
 
Ya, I like Temple by bout 35. Geoff Collins will have a plan on defense. He can disrupt your flow with the best of them. Offense is humming now, weather prob won't feel like Orlando on gameday, distractions, look aheads. Lot to like.
 
Some adds now that the injury games are up. Totals should be coming soon.

Fresno State +1 @ Wyoming -110 (2 units)
Navy +18.5 @ Notre Dame -110 (1 unit)
Oregon PICK v. Arizona -110 (1.5 units)
Kansas State +21.5 @ Oklahoma State -110 (1 unit) -- 2.5 total
 
Kentucky/Georgia Under 52 -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati/ECU Over 61 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse/Louisville Over 68.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Air Force/Boise State Over 56 -110 (1 unit)
Umass/BYU Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
Kansas State/Oklahoma State Over 64.5 -110 (1 unit)
Houston/Tulane Over 52.5 -110 (1.5 units)
New Mexico State/ULL Over 64 -110 (1.5 units)
Army/North Texas Over 56.5 -110 (3 units)
Texas A&M/Ole Miss Over 67 -110 (2 units)
 
AliShaheed said:
What's up with the Oregon qb? Haven't been able to find any info on the guy in the last month...weird.
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Messed up collarbone and offense imploded without him. Was suited up on sidelines and throwing, practicing, etc couple weeks ago but they elected to keep him out against Washington. *My assumption* is they know they only need one of next two to go bowling so they waited till after the bye to bring him back. I made this bet with the assumption he (Justin Herbert) is 100% starting. If he doesn't then I've got a turd.
 
I took oregon against washington thinking he'd be playing. I don't want to be wrong again. Same goes for betting Arizona who I would surely take if I knew that Herbert wasnt playing.

MaybeI just need to wait until kickoff this time around.
 
AliShaheed said:
I took oregon against washington thinking he'd be playing. I don't want to be wrong again. Same goes for betting Arizona who I would surely take if I knew that Herbert wasnt playing.

MaybeI just need to wait until kickoff this time around.
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If I were Tag I wouldn't announce till then so it really may be right before game. I don't know that the number will get there but if he plays Ducks should be -7 or so, IMO. All signs point to yes.
 
Herbert was reportedly not close to starting vs UW. He only practiced with first team when media was present to force UW to prepare for both qb's
 
Some "status update." Sounds like his deceptive build-up of hope before the UW game, luckily I found an article there explaining that Herbert only practiced in front of the media. Typical coach speak. Wanting AZ to practice for both quarterbacks. Totally reminds me of getting killed by Cuse's coach saying that Dungey would probably play while I happily ignored that Mahoney was getting extra reps "just in case." Ugh. Can't take these coaches at their word at all.
 
A buddy of mine is a meteorologist in Georgia but is a Wisconsin grad. He just emailed me and said weather could definitely an issue in Madison. Expects windy conditions and cold temps, with possible snow. Says "close call if the snow showers will be gone by game time". Obviously still Tuesday but figured it warranted mentioning.
 
The timetable is up on Herbert's injury right? So he should play? Plus yea like Crimson said at home one game from bowling is the right time to bring him back. Not exactly facing UW defense. PK feels kind of trappy also, like how is Oregon not dogged atm ?!
 
EFC1878 said:
A buddy of mine is a meteorologist in Georgia but is a Wisconsin grad. He just emailed me and said weather could definitely an issue in Madison. Expects windy conditions and cold temps, with possible snow. Says "close call if the snow showers will be gone by game time". Obviously still Tuesday but figured it warranted mentioning.
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WHOOPS!!! Meant to post this in the Big Ten thread. Sorry!
 
Thanks for the insight, guys. Looks like Herbert should go. I still have a bad taste in my mouth after a QB retiring from collar bone with the way Stockstill played in last year's Hawaii Bowl. Hopefully Herbert takes a lick early (on a 75 yard TD pass on first play of game) and it gets him in the game mentally.

This weather looks too nasty for me to try to pickle. Man, I wish this were in the Carrier Dome.

Syracuse/Louisville Under 72.5 -105 (1.60 units)
 
I've been tracking it for past few days and lot of the low totaled B1G games look to be on the list.

Mercer/Bama (Maybe)
UM/UW
UCF/Temple
SMU/Memphis
Minn/NW
Texas/WVU
Miss St/Arky (Maybe)
Charlotte/USM (maybe)
Cuse/Ville
Purdue/Iowa (I think, I'm not sure what state Iowa is for sure on map lol)
Neb/PSU
Maryland/Mich St
Houston/Tulane (Maybe)
LSU/UT
NMSU/ULL (Maybe)
aTm/OM (Maybe - please NO)
BC/UConn

Something like that at least as far as precipitation goes. Wind could be a factor in from Central to Midwest throughout the day.
 
Props:

Aeris Williams Over 81.5 rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
Nick Fitzgerald Over 220.5 passing + rushing yards -120 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Week 0: 3-0 (+6.00 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Week 9: 13-16 (-3.18 units)
Week 10: 16-16 (-0.95 units)
Week 11: 18-13 (+1.02 units)
Overall: 228-152 (+103.26 units)


Western Carolina +40/41 @ UNC -120 (3 units)
USC -7.5/12.5 v. UCLA -110 (3 units)
Utah +17/21 @ Washington -115 avg (2.5 units)
MTSU +13 @ WKU -120 (1 unit)
Duke +3 v. GT -120 (1 unit)
TCU -1 @ Texas Tech -120 (1 unit)

I won't complain for too long but man I feel I deserved better last week. Decimated market and felt good about lot of the caps. Got blanked on all of my GOY plays which hurt and lost couple others that I shouldn't have. Good news is I should have ridiculous GOY value this week. I have a ton of targets this week so if the numbers line up it could be a big card. I feel great about this week's potential. Hope everyone made money last week and makes even more this week.
Click to expand...

How much do you like Western Carolina at 21 and Duke at 7? How would you approach? Thanks
 
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