NCAAF Week 11

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Overall: 230-166 (+58.67 units)

Games played in futures market:

Temple +3.5 @ USF -121 (1.5 units)
UCF -7.5 @ Tulsa -115 avg (2 units)
Tulsa +18.5 v. UCF -110 (1 unit)
Missouri +21.5 @ UGA -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech +1 @ WVU -110 (1.5 units)
LSU +10 @ Alabama -110 (2 units)
Iowa State +14/14.5 @ Oklahoma -116 avg (2.5 units)
 
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Ball State +7.5 @ WMU -110 (1 unit)
App State +4.5 @ South Carolina -105 (1 unit)
Arkansas -2.5 v WKU -110 (2 units)
Georgia Southern -1 @ Troy -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky -2.5 v Tennessee -110 (1 unit)
Fresno State -2.5 v Utah State -115 (1 unit)
 
frattycapper22 said:
Would you still play some of the futures that are close to current prices? (ISU, TT)
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I'm less optimistic about Texas Tech. I would probably play that one but smaller.

I feel more confident in ISU, I would prob put some on a +13.5 now and wait to see if a 14+ pops up to get the rest down.
 
Why Kentucky? Sure Bowden is legit awesome....but they cant throw the ball a lick. Tennessee been on the uptick last month or so....
 
MOH/Ohio Over 54.5 (1 unit)
Temple/USF Under 54 -110 (1 unit)
UVA/GT Over 42.5 -110 (1 unit)
Baylor/TCU Under 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
NMSU/Ole Miss Over 60 -110 (1 unit)
Missouri/Georgia Under 48.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ga St/ULM Over 73 -110 (1 unit)

Managed to somehow lose most of my notes and numbers this week which was incredibly frustrating. Lighter totals week both due to that and also to a tough card.
 
CrimsonK said:
MOH/Ohio Over 54.5 (1 unit)
Temple/USF Under 54 -110 (1 unit)
UVA/GT Over 42.5 -110 (1 unit)
Baylor/TCU Under 53.5 -110 (1 unit)
NMSU/Ole Miss Over 60 -110 (1 unit)
Missouri/Georgia Under 48.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ga St/ULM Over 73 -110 (1 unit)

Managed to somehow lose most of my notes and numbers this week which was incredibly frustrating. Lighter totals week both due to that and also to a tough card.
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In the future please send me all your notes ahead of time and I will make sure they do not get misplaced.
 
Arkansas looking like a popular play. It's early, but I'm a little surprised there hasn't been any line movement there yet.
 
s--k said:
Arkansas looking like a popular play. It's early, but I'm a little surprised there hasn't been any line movement there yet.
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They're a really bad team, I'm not too surprised. I'm hoping I'm reading the emptional tea leaves properly on this one. If I am, I think it's gonna be a good bet.
 
Kent State +7.5 @ Toledo -108 (1 unit)

It looks like Eli Peters will be at QB for Toledo. Possible they don't ask him to throw a pass and they can just ram it down KSU throat 60x, but this line feels high with an FCS level QB with one of worst defenses in the nation.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Why Kentucky? Sure Bowden is legit awesome....but they cant throw the ball a lick. Tennessee been on the uptick last month or so....
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Tenn @ UK (-1/42) In the history of the earth, Tennessee is 80-25 against UK. 2017 was the last win for the Cats and there were 3 commonalities that I see with this matchup. The first is that Tennessee wasn't a good team. The second, is that UK had an ALPHA that they leaned on. In that game, Benito Snell had 27-180-3 on the ground. He is one of the most beloved and passionate UK players of all-time. He willed them to victory. This year, that man is Lynn Bowden. Thirdly, Bowden had a 100% completion in that win. Foreshadowing of his '19 performance. The weather looks good, which is great news. In two of Bowden's three starts it's been brutal rain and wind. As such, he hasn't been able to showcase the hose. I've said it for years, the guy can pass. You won't find a more impressive HS QB/player than he was. He's now familiar and back in groove. I like Gran having extra time to prep. I admire his not overthinking the game where when he finds something that works, he doesn't often get cute, he hammers a team with it. I think we see a great gameplan. UK off bye and UT off rather dismal blowout of UAB I'm glad the score was slightly deceptive and they covered for me, but they only had a 4.6-4.2 YPP and 302-237 yardage edge. This is a UT team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 on road. While they have played better ball the last few weeks, I rarely like a Saban disciple v running QB. It's the out of structure plays that tend to gash them. They will see plenty of that this week. I think both defenses have edges in the game and I trust BOWDEN to make the most plays for them. Vols can't run and UK tough to pass on. I took UK -2.5, 24-20 CATS
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Lean Mizzou +17 since you like the under?
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Missouri @ UGA (-16/48) I took Mizz +21.5 this summer and under 48.5 this week. Bryant isn't full strength, which greatly helps the under and hinders Missouri. I've mentioned it recently, but Missouri has been bad on the road. When they are bad, they are real bad. Like lose to Wyoming and Vanderbilt, bad. But then they inexplicably smoke Florida LY where Drew Lock plays well against a good time for like the first time, ever. I doubt they are likely to beat UGA, but it's a terrible spot for Dawgs. Off UF game and before Auburn. Missouri bye which came at the ideal time as they were reeling, coming off losses to Vandy and UK. Looking at Mizz profile, no major holes. They go as Bryant goes, and they go as running game goes. Defensively I think they will be fine against an uninspiring UGA off. The OL and RBs v good but not much to be scared of in passing game, esp against a Mizz def that ranks top 10 in pass def. They have some injuries on both sides the ball, but this looks like a rock fight. Not many explosive plays, lotta running clock. Dawgs outlast em, 27-13.
 
CrimsonK said:
They're a really bad team, I'm not too surprised. I'm hoping I'm reading the emptional tea leaves properly on this one. If I am, I think it's gonna be a good bet.
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That Jones boy making start moved line? -1 now. Don't feel great about that, but we've seen what Hicks and Starkle bring to the table. Hoping for alot of Boyd and Whaley.

Intersting angle here, WKU QB Storrey gets to go home take on former team and coach n't want him.
 
s--k said:
That Jones boy making start moved line? -1 now. Don't feel great about that, but we've seen what Hicks and Starkle bring to the table. Hoping for alot of Boyd and Whaley.

Intersting angle here, WKU QB Storrey gets to go home take on former team and coach n't want him.
Click to expand...
WKU @ Arkansas (-1/52.5) I took Arkansas -2.5. In the history of the earth, the SEC is 188-27 against CUSA and they are 72-5 this decade. It's poetic that Arkansas was the most recent loss when North Texas blew them out a couple years back. I'm playing both the % and emotions. Ark is lame duck. The only question is whether or not Morris gets another year. This is a new scenrio, where we must account for the new redshirt rules. Ark was already an amazingly young team, but we've reach the point in season where you just empty the chamber and see who u got. One of the big reasons why I originally bet this game, was due my assumtpion of logic. I figured after KJ Jefferson got a drive last game and cashed in an emphatic TD, there was no way nor reason why Morris wouldnt give him the keys. Turns out, *** THIS IS JUST MY OPINION*** he is trying to win over THE power broker of Arkansas football and start the grandson of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. Jerry's grandson is built like a more developed Mason Petrino, and will provide more as a runner than Hicks or Starkel. He's prob not an SEC player, but he was productive in HS and played big time ball in Texas. I believe the focus of the Ark gameplan will be RPOs. There is little chance that WKU can handle their beef in the trenches or speed at skill spots, but Ark has made plenty of trash G5s look good. My HOPE is that Jones gets a series or two and then we get Jefferson for most of 4 quarters. It's my belief that this team will play for him. They are going with the youth movement and he is a face of it. I've been a long time fan of his, so I'm hoping they let him loose. The other emotional component is that Ty Storey is WKU starting QB. He grad transfered from Arkansas LY. He was 0-9 as starter for Arkansas, but has found CUSA defenses much more forgiving, where he's dinked and dunked his way to a few ways after their starter was lost for year. Worth meditating on the fact that we just got to witness how bad Starkel & Hicks were and as a senior, Storey was the backup to them with no viable '19 playing time in sight. He's described by most as gritty, but by few as good. I'm in the latter camp. I think this confluence of factors likely leads to him pressing, while Arkansas has multiple things to get amped for in their final win-able game of the season and final home game. Normally the G5 plays loose in these spots, I don't see it here. I'm making a lot of assumptions, but I'm also playing %. WKU is primarily pass offense that gets ball out fast. take away Lucky Jackson and I think they get pretty bad in a hurry. No real run game to speak of. Defensively, their numbers are excellent, but playing a CUSA schedule makes raw numbers look good. See UAB* If Ark loses this one, Morris is done and I'll be lighter of wallet. If they play inspired and use Jefferson and let him work with the young, extremely talented WRs and NFL RB, then I think good things happen. Ville beat WKU 38-21 and I'll call the Hogs, 31-20.
 
Georgia -17 v. Missouri -115 (1 unit)

Would prob avoid if you dont have the big GOY number. Number is on move and only stale stuff at square shops right now. Reports that Kelly Bryant won't start.
 
Tide High said:
Where we at on that tiger bait? Not worried bout the line just curious how you see it
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This is what he posted last week:

"Everything obviously hinges on Tua's health. I think he will play, I just question his effectiveness. I'm not even sure we will have any better idea about that question until he's live in the game. Lotta money came in on LSU, which I think has merit either way. I don't agree that this spread should be more than a TD. I would contend that from Tua to Jones is about as big a gap as there is in CFB right now. Top 5 pick to Pratville Chevy Dealer is a big downgrade. Worth also noting that Tua had a hurt knee against them last year and played fine, but LSU didn't run the death star offense then. Saban asks a lot of his corners in his scheme and unfortunately in this matchup, the players they are going up against represent a better trio than bama may have ever faced under Saban. Just so happens they, too, have a healthy first round QB throwing to them. Other mismatch that I think will be exploited is Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a pass catcher. He was highly involved against Aubueb and he should again. Both of Bama's FR ILBs are liabilities in coverage and he's going to be matched up on them. I just don't like the matchup for Bama for many reasons. Think the line is 6ish now, I would prob leave it alone there, but I 100% wouldnt bet bama. "
 
Tide High said:
Where we at on that tiger bait? Not worried bout the line just curious how you see it
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LSU @ Alabama (-6/62.5) I took LSU +10 a few weeks ago. I believe it had merit even if Tua were 100%. It’s highly improbable that he will be fully healthy, but I tend to believe he will play. If he has any setbacks, wouldn’t be surprised to see Saban sit him down until Auburn. Play long game. Start lobbying the people about the LSU loss being fruit of the R1 QB being out. I don’t think that happens, but it’s a moderately plausible scenario. Even if he plays, I expect his play will be down. I know it’s not a highly invasive procedure, but it’s surgery. His ability to maneuver within and out of the pocket are two of his biggest strengths. That’s magnified when you have all the R1 WRs and you ask DBs for more than a few seconds. LSU has elite DBs but they aren’t great collectively. It’s odd. Top 10 pick S Grant Delpit is hurt He isn’t practicing but will probably play. His role as an erasing center fielder is vital to LSU. Him being less than 100% is second most critical piece of the game. Big, big deal. Stingley and Fulton will lose more than they have all year this game, if Tua is well. Bama OL and ground game been improving. Makes sense to run a bit early in game to see how Tua feels. LSU without one of their top LBs. May see that show up more in 2H when defenses are tired. If Mac plays for Bama, all is moot. LSU wins. They are gonna do some scoring. Bama doesn’t have the defense that Auburn does, but will prob be closest thing to em that LSU will see this year. More matchups of elite WRs against elite DBs. Bama healthier in secondary but prob not quite same top end talent that LSU def has. Unit is better though overall. One area that I think LSU will exploit is something they showed against Auburn and that is involving CEH more in passing game. They haven’t didn’t use him like Kamara for the first couple months, because they never really needed to. Against a top defense, they exploited matchup. I think that same thing will be ripe for the picking, and a huge edge for LSU in the game. Bama starts two frosh at ILB and only one of em has any prayer of staying with him, the other fella will be roadkill. Mismatch backs are the present and future. LSU has the best one here. Overall, I expect a great environment. It’s going to be a big test for Burrow. I think he’s a gamer and will be ready. This has been a lopsided series in recent years. Bama won last 8 and LSU hasn’t scored 18+ since 2010. Diff offense here, obv, but worth noting the recent games. I don’t see much of an edge in the current total. If I felt Tua was gonna be healthy, I would be tempted to go over. I don’t think he is, so I think it’s slightly lower scoring and closer. I’ll go with Bama 31-30.
 
Thanks. I enjoyed reading that. I believe LSU will move the ball up and down the field. Red zone D is where it counts. Can’t predict that. Enjoy it, either way. RTR
 
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