NCAAF Week 11

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-0 (+6.00 units)
Week 1: 28-17 (+14.90 units)
Week 2: 24-13 (+20.15 units)
Week 3: 28-15 (+21.95 units)
Week 4: 20-11 (+14.50 units)
Week 5: 18-12 (+8.72 units)
Week 6: 20-14 (-7.75 units)
Week 7: 24-8 (+26.40 units)
Week 8: 16-17 (+1.50 units)
Week 9: 13-16 (-3.18 units)
Week 10: 16-16 (-0.95 units)
Overall: 210-139 (+102.24 units)

GOY:

Utah -2.5 v. Washington State -110 (2.5 units)
Michigan State +25.5 @ Ohio State -110 (2 units)
FSU +15.5 @ Clemson -110 (1.5 units)
TCU +8 @ Oklahoma -110 (1.5 units)
RnNZfQn2o2xpggJQqefCOervMbPIci5mujDPJnvl43kv6Rtxjyh5gHN_JKVzeU-aaGz3pePFgxfoAAtZJZNx8mveVTc-11j98EfuAJVcumUenA=s0-d-e1-ft
Duke -4 @ Army -120 (1 unit)

Not gonna have much value on GOYs this week. Sparty is the only one I will for sure. Utah, FSU and TCU should be close and Duke prob won't be favored.
 
Bowling Green/Buffalo Over 54 -110 (1 unit)
Toledo/Ohio Over 62 -115 (1.5 units)
VT/GT Under 52.5 -110 (1 unit)
NC State/BC Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
Wake/Syracuse Over 56.5 -110 (4 units)
Wyoming/Air Force Over 49.5 - 110 (1 unit)
WVU/Kansas State Under 64.5 -110 (1 unit)
Washington State/Utah Over 51.5 110 (1.5 units)
ULL/Ole Miss Over 60 +100 (2 units)
Southern Miss/Rice Under 59/59.5 -110 (5 units)
Georgia/Auburn Under 51.5 -110 (1 unit)
Kentucky/Vanderbilt Over 52 -110 (1 unit)
ODU/FIU Under 50 -110 (1 unit)
UAB/UTSA Under 50 -110 (1 unit)
Boise State/Colorado State Over 54 -110 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Must have been you that beat it up on BOL it had already gotten knocked around before I could get to it! Thankfully, BM opened even lower.
Click to expand...

It's funny because I usually hit a play at BOL and then wait 61 seconds and hit it again so I can get as much as possible before the line goes crazy. It jumped to like 63 but then came back down to 61 as I figured the contrarians were at work as it is now juiced up to 135 at the same 63. Next year, I may go back to BM and BOL as this year I just have BOL which is why I end up having so many split plays with money down on multiple lines because it is tough to catch some of these twice before they take the line up a few points.
 
CK - Wanted to ask your opinion on Temple/Cin. I've been impressed with Nutile the last two games, seems he has a good grasp of the offense and is going the right place with the ball. It appears he is an upgrade over Marchi. Cin has played better the last two weeks and their defensive numbers for the season are not terrible. I'm tempted to play Temple here, thinking they have a little momentum going with Nutile and OL playing well particularly in pass blocking. Thoughts?
 
Timh said:
CK - Wanted to ask your opinion on Temple/Cin. I've been impressed with Nutile the last two games, seems he has a good grasp of the offense and is going the right place with the ball. It appears he is an upgrade over Marchi. Cin has played better the last two weeks and their defensive numbers for the season are not terrible. I'm tempted to play Temple here, thinking they have a little momentum going with Nutile and OL playing well particularly in pass blocking. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I came really close on two occasions at open to betting Temple at PICK. I would absolutely agree with your assessment of Nutile and his impact on the offense. Thing is, they have a ton of really outstanding skill players so it doesn't take Dan Marino to succeed in that offense. My problem with Cinci is they are one team that I don't think I've seen a snap of, yet. I know that a mutual friend of yours and mine who knows Cinci really well has said he thinks they matchup better defensively against more pro-style teams and spread teams give them more trouble. Temple would fall into the former category. While I trust his opinion, it's both challenging and rare for me to not have seen a team play at this point in season so I'm just a bit cautious with my opinions and decisions to play games involving them. That said, Temple would be only side for me, I think. GL if you play it!
 
Timh said:
Thank you CK, appreciate your thoughts as always.
Click to expand...
Happy to help! Was a pretty straightforward winner, shoulda hit it!

GOY:

Week 12

Utah +17 @ Washington -110 (1.5 units) -- (Already have +21 -120 from summer for 1 unit)
 
Props:

Derrius Guice Over 88.5/90.5 rushing yards -120 (2.5 units)

Felton Davis Over 4 receptions -120 (1 unit)

Felton Davis Over 46.5 receiving yards -120 (1 unit)
 
Guice - One of most talented backs in CFB is "healthiest he's been all year". His numbers for this season are depressed due to health and last week it was against Bama. Not many backs go from one of P5 best rush defenses to one of worst in B2B weeks and he does here. I think he will have a chance to go for 200 again like he did against Ole Miss who has a comparable rush defense (22-276).

Davis has been targeted 31 times over the past two weeks. I don't have the numbers in front of me but my guess is that makes him top 3-5 most highly targeted player in all of CFB in that span. 8-95 on 12 targets two weeks ago and 12-181 on 19 targets last week. Ohio State secondary is terrible and good chance MSU is playing from behind (18 point dogs).
 
I cannot believe the low numbers for Davis. That almost feels like stealing but the props market in CFB is pretty soft, right?

Sound, no GREAT reasoning on both plays.
 
B.A.R. said:
I cannot believe the low numbers for Davis. That almost feels like stealing but the props market in CFB is pretty soft, right?

Sound, no GREAT reasoning on both plays.
Click to expand...
The CFB prop market is usually pretty bad but they keep limits low so I understand why they don't spend a lot of time on them.
 
James Washington Under 127.5 receiving yards -120 (1 unit)
Allen Lazard Over 4.5 receptions -120 (1 unit)
Allen Lazard Over 57.5 receiving yards -120 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Happy to help! Was a pretty straightforward winner, shoulda hit it!

GOY:

Week 12

Utah +17 @ Washington -110 (1.5 units) -- (Already have +21 -120 from summer for 1 unit)
Click to expand...
I fucked it up with a ML parlay with Washington
 
What an exciting gm last night w/Messy. Getting experience like that is only gonna make them even better.
Cheers CK
 
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